Jump to content
gsytch

New Florida Winter Outlook

Recommended Posts

Kailua_Krish

Weather channel is now saying that even Ocala wont freeze. We've gotten nothing more than a heavier frost at my place and while the banana leaves are scorched out in the open all of the brugmansia are still blooming heavily, the hibiscuses are still blooming, and my tabebuia started about 3 weeks ago too. Not too shabbby for a borderline 9a location :)

-Krishna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

NWS Ruskin

"......LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE
WITH SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE OF A
RADIATIONAL COOLING FREEZE. TEMPERATURES BOTH NIGHTS COULD END UP
QUITE SIMILAR...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RIGHT NOW EXPECT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES BOTH NIGHTS FROM ABOUT HERNANDO COUNTY
NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THERE...I AM LEANING TOWARD MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR. IF SKIES STAY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE LEADING TO CALM WINDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS IS ALL STILL BEYOND 72 HOURS OUT SO NO
WATCHES ARE NEEDED YET AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE
THE FORECAST."


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmislandRandy

I'll take the rain :bemused:590x393_02121739_florida.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

If it's like the rain we've been getting up here, take the word beneficial with a grain of salt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmsOrl

Exactly, Ray. Every "rain event" we have had in the last several months has been minimal, including the rain with this latest system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

I just heard my local radio forecast for Sunday morning -- and it called for a low of 28-30 low ground and mid 30s high ground. That forecast is at odds with Accuweather, Weatherunderground, National Weather Service, and Weatherchannel which all are calling for 35-38 (NWS calling for the 35 degree low).

If the former proves to be true, it will be a real shot in the backside after going through the warmest winter I've ever experienced here in Highlands County, Florida.

December 1st through yesterday, Feb. 13th, I've had 32 days with highs above 80 degrees F, with only one day below 40 degrees (I bottomed out at 32 degrees on Dec. 23rd, while the official low at our FAWN station was 38.52 the same morning, and 42 lake side).

If my coconut palm gets damaged (so far no damage) I won't be happy about it after coming this far. I'm on low ground but not the lowest in the county.

I had to go up into town this morning (high ground area) to the post office. While up there I took photos of the three largest coconut palms growing there. I don't expect these coconuts to be damaged as it always runs much warmer up there than at my place.

LakePlacidcoconut_zpsdfff0aa4.jpg

LakePlaciddoublecoconuts_zps29f8c995.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gsytch

Wed recorded over an inch of much needed rain, some heavy. Today it has rained on and off, mostly steady light rains with a few medium rainfalls, and it is just short of half an inch. So, about 1 1/2" of rain now in two days is more than my total since Dec1st to Wed. Nice rainfall and much appreciated. Now, the cold will be a quick shot, and hopefully it appears just Sun night/Mon morn and looking more like 37-38F with frost well inland due to the calm. Monday looks like a quick warmup 68-70F and then even warmer as the week progresses...but why oh why my 3 day weekend? I could use warm weather to get work done. I don't work well in the cold! :bemused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

Take whatever lows they're predicting now and subtract another 2 degrees or so. The cold night isn't until Sunday night/Monday morning and it is only Friday after all. You didn't think they were done dropping the lows did you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
redant

Take whatever lows they're predicting now and subtract another 2 degrees or so. The cold night isn't until Sunday night/Monday morning and it is only Friday after all. You didn't think they were done dropping the lows did you.

You're always such a ray of sunshine :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sarasota alex

This is what I'm getting for my zip (34238) for Sat/Sun and Sun/Mon lows

weather.gov - 38 and 33

accuweather - 42 and 39

the weather channel - 40 and 37

wunderground - 45 and 39

average - 41 and 37

I hope the government is wrong on this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

You're always such a ray of sunshine :rolleyes:

You meant a Ray of sunshine. :winkie: I do my best in these predictable situations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sarasota alex

Whatever the temperature, I'm afraid I'm virtually guaranteed to have frost in some parts of the yard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

No one says lower than 39 for my place... but it could easily be 35 based on past experiences. So if its 35-37, it could frost out front, but I have the more cold hardy species out there. The canopy in back is just starting to look like it would help... fingers crossed for the little ones... dypsis, archontos, hyophorbe indica... I guess this could be the first test of that canopy that I had hoped had another year to grow in...

Edited by sonoranfans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gsytch

Whatever the temperature, I'm afraid I'm virtually guaranteed to have frost in some parts of the yard.

Looks like some frost in my open back yard, too, but it shouldn't be anything earth shattering. But still, I could use a warm weekend to get stuff done. Oh well....... :yay:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Trópico

It's official, freeze watch for Orlando. I'd be happy if I got 32f even, but now with a forecasted 35f I will get a solid 30f or lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

So forecast is 43F for tonight... but its 61F now at 645pm, dewpoint of 59F and zero wind velocity.... Any other winter and I would be laughing at this... :bemused: But it seems like we have been almost too lucky...

Edited by sonoranfans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

The NWS is suggesting Saturday night will be the colder of two nights. By very late Sunday night/Monday morning, the cold high over the southeast shifts into the Atlantic and the winds veer from due north to east northeast. That would cutoff the cold drainage flow before the coldest part of the morning. My coldest forecasted low so far is 38F but again, that can be dropped by the next shift at the weather service. I can't remember the last time I looked forward to Monday so much.

Even a scare at this late stage really sucks but it's still within my February 20th freeze cutoff date. My records show Tampa hasn't had a February freeze since 1996 and that was a doozy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmsOrl

Based on the current forecast, I will expect middle 30s for the inner Orlando suburbs (myself), with upper 30s for the core urban heat island areas, including Orlando Executive Airport (37F) and Leu Gardens. The outer areas will no doubt reach at or a bit below freezing, and the cold pockets N, NE and NW of town will easily be in the 20s.

I am putting all of the tender potted palms in the greenhouse tomorrow, might as well. I am debating about whether to cover anything. Also putting a radiant heat lamp on my large Adonidia in a 4 foot massive pot. That about sums it up for protection from this cold front, unless the forecast changes dramatically overnight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmislandRandy

I just checked a few weather sites & a few are showing 39F-43F for a lows in Southwestern Palm Beach county. It looks like a quick drop until it bottoms out at 6:00-7:00 am Sunday morning, then right back up. I'm on the edge of the Everglades & tend to stay just a few degrees above the predicted lows. I'll be putting a lot of potted stuff indoors. Ahhhhhhh :indifferent:

On a good note, we got over 3 inches of rain yesterday. The first good rain in months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

Since my last post, most of the forecast sources haver revised downward Sunday and Monday mornings' lows for Lake Placid, Florida, as follows:

Accuweather: Sunday 38, Monday 33

Weatherchannel: Sunday 36, Monday 34

Weatherunderground: Sunday 37, Monday 36

NWS: Sunday 34, Monday 31

I can only hope I don't drop below 30 degrees at my place in the open areas.

I will now start execution of my freeze/frost protections on some of my palms and shrubs. The BS of winter protection is getting old, I'm getting old -- but I must do what I have to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TropicalDude

Walt - those coconut palms look familiar. Are those the same ones you posted a few years back looking damaged when we had those back to back bad winters? If they are, they recovered perfectly.

Last near-freezing event we had back in December apparently it was not considered a freeze. They were forecasting a low of 35 or so for Orlando, but several personal weather stations on weather underground were showing 32-31 SE of downtown. Two come to mind: The one near Lake Underhill and 417, the other one on Azelia Park - which for some reason seems to always be the coldest, and usually runs 2-3 degrees colder than the others despite being in an urbanized area

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

Walt - those coconut palms look familiar. Are those the same ones you posted a few years back looking damaged when we had those back to back bad winters? If they are, they recovered perfectly.

Last near-freezing event we had back in December apparently it was not considered a freeze. They were forecasting a low of 35 or so for Orlando, but several personal weather stations on weather underground were showing 32-31 SE of downtown. Two come to mind: The one near Lake Underhill and 417, the other one on Azelia Park - which for some reason seems to always be the coldest, and usually runs 2-3 degrees colder than the others despite being in an urbanized area

Yep, they are the same palms. The two double palms I've been tracking for at least 12 years now, the other one about five years (around the time it was planted). These palms weren't damaged last winter and have fully recovered from the January 2010 and again December 2010 long cold spells. I don't think they were frost damaged, but actually suffered from prolonged cold (but not freezing) temperatures.

The months of January 2010 and December 2010 enlightened me to something I hadn't observed in my 15 plus years living here. When we had those long cold spells the lake waters cooled down considerably, and the coconut palms around them actually fared worse (many died) than the coconuts up in town, because in town is at a higher altitude and got the benefit of warm air inversion every night, whereas the lake front areas didn't. Every one of those cold nights were radiational cooling events, and high ground areas benefit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bill H2DB

Walt - those coconut palms look familiar. Are those the same ones you posted a few years back looking damaged when we had those back to back bad winters? If they are, they recovered perfectly.

Last near-freezing event we had back in December apparently it was not considered a freeze. They were forecasting a low of 35 or so for Orlando, but several personal weather stations on weather underground were showing 32-31 SE of downtown. Two come to mind: The one near Lake Underhill and 417, the other one on Azelia Park - which for some reason seems to always be the coldest, and usually runs 2-3 degrees colder than the others despite being in an urbanized area

Yep, they are the same palms. The two double palms I've been tracking for at least 12 years now, the other one about five years (around the time it was planted). These palms weren't damaged last winter and have fully recovered from the January 2010 and again December 2010 long cold spells. I don't think they were frost damaged, but actually suffered from prolonged cold (but not freezing) temperatures.

The months of January 2010 and December 2010 enlightened me to something I hadn't observed in my 15 plus years living here. When we had those long cold spells the lake waters cooled down considerably, and the coconut palms around them actually fared worse (many died) than the coconuts up in town, because in town is at a higher altitude and got the benefit of warm air inversion every night, whereas the lake front areas didn't. Every one of those cold nights were radiational cooling events, and high ground areas benefit.

In addition to the nightime relative warmth on the high ground , do you think that the daytime temps were lower near the lakes as well?

Those were cold all day times , and all of the Cocos in Volusia County died as a result of accumulated cold , and not the overall low .

Virtually all Volusia Cocos were in the coastal area , and our daytime temps are generally lower than inland , while having higher

night temps. The Atlantic has gotten as low as 46 deg here for weeks , and right near the water we have cold days while even well North

of our latitude , the inland days are warm. Temp difference can be 15 deg or more in both cases .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

Walt - those coconut palms look familiar. Are those the same ones you posted a few years back looking damaged when we had those back to back bad winters? If they are, they recovered perfectly.

Last near-freezing event we had back in December apparently it was not considered a freeze. They were forecasting a low of 35 or so for Orlando, but several personal weather stations on weather underground were showing 32-31 SE of downtown. Two come to mind: The one near Lake Underhill and 417, the other one on Azelia Park - which for some reason seems to always be the coldest, and usually runs 2-3 degrees colder than the others despite being in an urbanized area

Yep, they are the same palms. The two double palms I've been tracking for at least 12 years now, the other one about five years (around the time it was planted). These palms weren't damaged last winter and have fully recovered from the January 2010 and again December 2010 long cold spells. I don't think they were frost damaged, but actually suffered from prolonged cold (but not freezing) temperatures.

The months of January 2010 and December 2010 enlightened me to something I hadn't observed in my 15 plus years living here. When we had those long cold spells the lake waters cooled down considerably, and the coconut palms around them actually fared worse (many died) than the coconuts up in town, because in town is at a higher altitude and got the benefit of warm air inversion every night, whereas the lake front areas didn't. Every one of those cold nights were radiational cooling events, and high ground areas benefit.

In addition to the nightime relative warmth on the high ground , do you think that the daytime temps were lower near the lakes as well?

Those were cold all day times , and all of the Cocos in Volusia County died as a result of accumulated cold , and not the overall low .

IMO, I definitely believe it was the protracted period of cold that killed and/or severely damaged the coconut palms in Highlands County (in the relatively warmer spots that they can grow, like around lakes and on the highest ground). It wasn't just the low average air temperatures, but low soil temperatures, too.

We have a University of Florida FAWN weather station about 8 miles north of me, and they have comprehensive data at their website (for all FAWN locations) that I consulted. I saw where soil temperatured dropped well below 60 degrees back during those cold days in 2010. While this station is in a rural, outlying location, it is on relatively high ground, around 30 feet higher than at my place (but about 40 feet lower than downtown Lake Placid). Low temperatures at the FAWN station (on radiational cooling nights) generally run 3-5 degrees warmer than I record here at my place. In fact, when I recorded a low of 32 degrees last December 23rd, the FAWN station recorded just over 38 degrees.

The above being said, my small coconut survived 2010 because I protected it with heating cables and insulation (trunk and meristem). Otherwise, it would have been on the burn pile two years by the end of January 2010.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

My local radio station weather forecaster is calling for a low of 36 high ground and 30 low ground for Sunday morning and 36 high ground and 29 low ground Monday morning with frost. I'm not on the lowest ground and am hoping for no lower than 32 degrees.

Not taking any chances with leaving potted stuff out in the open, I moved 15 Arch. cunninghamiana palms under laurel oak canopy (although it's dropped most of its leaves, so the canopy isn't as dense as normal).

I moved about 100 pots of Arch. alexandrae palms and many miscellaneous others into my greenhouse, along with some potted plants.

If it stays windy tonight (my forecast calls for wind all night) then I expect no cold damage tomorrow morning. However, Monday morning will be radiational cooling I'm sure with lots of frost.

Acunninghamianapalms-Copy_zpsb4a41f4f.jp

Above photo: Archontophoenix cunninghamiana palms under laurel oak canopy.

Northhalfofgreenhouse_zps1a123d4e.jpg

Above photo: Northside of greenhouse stocked with about 100 pots of A. alexandrae palms and miscellaneous others.

Southhalfofgreenhouse_zpsf204e0f1.jpg

Above photo: Southside of greenhouse with royal palms and others. These royals are getting planted out this spring.

Greenhouseheater_zps85537ad4.jpg

Above photo: 12,500 BTU infrared propane heater if needed in greenhouse. I can run this heater on it's lowest settting and it will keep the greenhouse about 40 degrees during mid 20s outside temperature.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Moose

As per the NWS this morning ...

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WITH UPPER 30S
OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY REACH 32 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Trópico

Bottomed at 34.8F open yard, 41.7F pool deck. So wunderground was spot on. Tonight NWS is only calling for 36F and wunderground "Best forecast" calls for 32F. Bring it on, I'm ready either way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Moose

Bottomed at 34.8F open yard, 4

Frank - what is your forecasted high for today?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Trópico
Bottomed at 34.8F open yard, 4
Frank - what is your forecasted high for today?
Ack! Why did you quote my unfinished post. Funny as I went back to look for my forecast again they changed it! Now both are in better agreement, for the better. 57/34 wundergroud and weather.com, 56/36 NWS. How come you are forecasted below freezing!?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gsytch

39.1F lowest here in New Port Richey. Winds have picked up again which will inhibit good warming, although if from the NE that will mean higher dewpoints! One more chilly chilly night then a warmup. The end of winter perhaps? :rant:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sarasota alex

The weather station in an exposed location broke down. A more sheltered location only bottomed out at 41F. So I estimate that there are parts of my yard that hit 39F. Bracing for tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PalmatierMeg

Last night's predicted low: 41F Actual low: 43.3F

Sunday night predicted low: 41F

Sunday predicted high: 61F Current high (12:10 EST): 56.1F

I don't think it'll go above high 50s. Wind is howling outside. Most of my tropicals are indoors. My husband & I are discussing buying a roll of polyfilm greenhouse covering to go over our back lanai for next winter's cold fronts. Trying to be pro-active.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gsytch

WOW Meg, you are having a heat wave compared to me. Barely above 50F at 1pm under crystal clear skies. Winds are kicking at 20mph in gusts. Nasty day. My greenhouse is a wonderful 80F right now. The sun at this time of year can cook! Fingers crossed that tonight is not too bad, then uphill from there. Spring where are thou? Get here! <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xhoniwaters1

37 low this morning on Pensacola Beach. Tomorrow morning forecast is showing low 40's. Looks like we dodged most of this cold air.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Looks like 41.1F was the bottom in Palm Harbor on my station and 44F here on Pine Island.

It will be lower tonight it appears.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmsOrl

As expected, we did not get as low as forecast. The 3 major Orlando stations reached 37F (37.9, so 38F at Orlando Exec near downtown) versus the forecast for 34-35F. Tonight is going to be a radiational cooling night so I expect the difference between urbanized and more rural areas to be more pronounced. Though the entire area is under a freeze warning, Orlando is supposed to stay several degrees above freezing. Widespread frost may be a problem for unprotected tender plants though. I am sure rural areas in all directions from the city will freeze though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

weather underground just revised tonights expected low from 39F to 34F... they were predicting a 41F low last night, it hit 40F(@ dew point). Dew point is currently 18F!! 15 mph wind out of the north, 55F.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bill H2DB

Here in the Daytona Beach area , lows at: Beachside- 37.9 Me @ west side of ICW- 34.7 DBIA-33.0 Spruce Creek-31.8

Very low Dew Point all day ranging from 2-12 deg !! Super dry .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PalmatierMeg

Actual high Sunday: 57.9F at 2:40 p.m. (3.1 degrees lower than forecast 61)

In 20 minutes the temp has dropped from 57.7 to 51.0 and the sun is still up.

Weather Underground forecast low: 41F

Weather.com forecast low: 37F !!!!!! O woe, if true

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

I set out three hi-low thermometers last night. My lowest one registered 37 degrees (I place it in this spot every winter), the highest 40 degrees. The latter was located in a warmer part of my property.

Last night was mostly windy, but tonight the wind totally died just before twilight, and I mean totally died. All the weather reports by four various weather sources are calling for a low between 30 and 33 degrees. But what they call for is absolutely meaningless here in Highlands County on radiational cooling nights. I've seen (on numerous ocassions) low temperature differentials of up to 22 degrees, depending on the exact locations in the country, with extreme low ground being 22 degrees lower than the best lake side areas and possibly high ground areas. So the upshot is, it could easily drop into the upper 20s for me tonight.

A buddy of mine that lives across the street from Lake June (3,504 acres) said his low was 41 degrees this morning. That was only a four degree difference than what I had, due to the wind mixing up the air. However, I bet tomorrow morning, being that tonight will be a radiational cooling event, he will be at least 10-12 degrees warmer than at my place.

As I said in an earlier posting, I had a low of 32 degrees back on the morning of December 23rd 2012. The previous day leading up to that, the official high temperature was 64.15 degrees. Well, today's official high temperature was only 57.07 degrees. Plus, the dew points were lower today than back on December 22nd.

Today I bundled and wrapped four palms (two adonidia, one Dypsis leptocheilos, and one Syagrus schizophylla), plus totally tented three Cordyline plants, plus covered all my ixoras. I used no heat (string lights, heating cables), and am hoping the wraps will keep frost off the leaves, and if the lows are too low there will be little or no foliage damage.

I took the below two photos just before twilight today:

Coldprotection2_zpsb33482ef.jpg

Above photo: Bundled and wrapped adonidia palm at corner of house. I have a small (30K BTU) forced air propane heater to blow on my small coconut palm in hopes of at least reducing the amount of cold and frost damage to the frond leaves. I wrapped the trunk and meristem with a heavy mover's quilt. The trunk was rather warm from the sun shining on it all day, so the quilt should hold in enough heat until warm up tomorrow morning. If it was forecast to be colder and for longer I would have installed a heating cable around the trunk.

Coldprotection1_zps722a80e0.jpg

Above photo: Dypsis leptocheilos in center. Fronds bundled and wrapped with quilted mattress cover. Small fan mounted atop 8 feet step ladder. I will turn on the fan to generate air movement across the foliage of my A. alexandrae palm in hopes of mitigating any frost build up. The fan is approximately 9 feet above the ground, so the air at that level should be a couple of degrees warmer than at ground level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...