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gsytch

New Florida Winter Outlook

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spockvr6

Def no complaints about winter thus far.

39.9F in Palm Harbor and 40.8F on Pine Island so far......well see what Ma Nature has in store for us over the next couple of months........

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Trópico

Is that a good sign? I mean, do trees "know" that a chance of a killing freeze is gone, so they start blooming? In my yard the lowest I have seen is 31.6°F in the openmost part. In my pool area must have been about 37°F. I'm keeping an eye on the Johnny jump ups that are everywhere in my lawn. They are growing and about to flower, and if they do, I declare it a warm winter.

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Moose

Frank - your declaration has certainly jinxed the state of Florida now. In South Florida, the temperatures are several degrees above normal averages almost daily. With only one "cool" event so far this season, non of my plants have properly hardened off. With everything in such active growth, I am very concerned that one intense artic blast will cause much damage. :violin:

Just gotta make it to Feb. 20 - then the % chance of a cold artic bombardment diminishes significantly. Still possible but not as catastrophic. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Is that a good sign? I mean, do trees "know" that a chance of a killing freeze is gone, so they start blooming? In my yard the lowest I have seen is 31.6°F in the openmost part. In my pool area must have been about 37°F. I'm keeping an eye on the Johnny jump ups that are everywhere in my lawn. They are growing and about to flower, and if they do, I declare it a warm winter.

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Moose

Still looking good for Florida. Long term forecasts appear favorable. We know that can change abruptly. :greenthumb:

Glad I am not experiencing what Southern California is going through. Old man Winter has not been so kind to those palm lovers. :badday:

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Walt

So far, this is the warmest January I can recall since moving here in 1997. I have four Tabebuia chrysotricha that started partial bloom back in late December (a month earlier than I've ever seen it before). My mulberry tree is pushing out new leaves, as well as my maple tree. Overall, every palm and tropical planting I have is thriving. Nothing now will be cold acclimated if down the road an arctic blast decides to come through.

I think statistically, the coldest average day of the year is around January 22nd for my area, after that temps start to rise (on average) one degree every three days or so as the sun rises higher in the sky and short wave sun radiation increases notably. But averages and historical statistics mean little. My latest damaging frost in the last 15 years has been February 16th, so until at least then, I will be on guard.

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gsytch

The record highs, and record high lows, are piling up for Florida. 85f for Tampa, 88f for Ft Myers and lows right around 70F. Unreal warmth and humidity to boot. Long range has the cold outbreak coming into the US not coming into FL, but us wary residents know winter does not end until late Feb. I even have Plumerias putting out new leaves now!

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Eric in Orlando

With this streak of 80s being forecast at least another week, we only have about 4-5 more weeks to worry about.

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SubTropicRay

February 20th is the cutoff for the severe freezes. The CPC predicts normal/above normal conditions throughtout Florida through January 23rd. That said, we all know a cold snap can present itself at any moment. It only takes one night to make it a bad winter.

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_Keith
February 20th is the cutoff for the severe freezes. The CPC predicts normal/above normal conditions throughtout Florida through January 23rd. That said, we all know a cold snap can present itself at any moment. It only takes one night to make it a bad winter.

You got that right, one night of Zone 8a wipes out 364 nights of Zone 9b everytime.

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Keith N Tampa (ex SoJax)

I've had 1 frost already, and it left some minor damage. I'm hoping the arctic invasion moderates before reaching me, but I am in zone 9 so freezes are a part of this climate. If I stay above 25, I'll have to consider myself satisfied.

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Trópico

I see an arctic blast on the horizon, the Jan 20th's low going down to 56°F. :rolleyes:

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palmislandRandy

I'm seeing 52-53 as a low on the 20th for South Palm Beach county, Brrrrrr :) I think all our chill is out West.

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Eric in Orlando

Right now, long range forecast shows low 80s until next Wed. here. But cooling off after that and the 20th and 21st highs in upper 60s, lows in mid 40s. Hopefully that Artic air stays moderated.

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SubTropicRay

Accuweather is beating the arctic drum right now. While much of it is hype, the pattern does become more conducive to freezing temps beginning Saturday, Jan 19th. We are far from being out of the woods.

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Moose

This is the 14th winter day in a row that the high temp exceeding 80F in South Florida. An anomaly but not unheard of. The record is 15 days in a row set 11 years ago (2002). We may tie the record tomorrow. A more normal temp pattern is predicted to return this weekend. Every day that passes is another day closer to the Feb. 20th threshhold. :greenthumb:

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TropicalDude

next tuesday

Accuweather shows a low of 38 at Orlando International Airport

Weather Channel says 40

Weather Underground has it at 45, and 43 the following day

It hasn't dropped below 50 at KMCO so far this January. That's got to be a record

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gsytch

It does appear they are quite unsure of how much cold gets down here next week. Reality that winter is coming back is depressing, but I am blessed for almost two weeks of 80F+. I am looking at 43-45F for a few nights here and there for the next few weeks, based on models. That, I can take. The sun is getting higher. The GOM is almost 70F. On to February and still, fingers crossed. NO POLAR AIR! :)

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TropicalDude

Looks like there won't be a freeze here in Orlando out of this outbreak, I see Accuweather has moved that 38 low to two fridays from now... :mrlooney: However, on the last cold snap we had in December, weather channel had us down to 41 two days in advance or so. It turned out we got down to freezing. The leaves on a large banana taller than the house and planted close to it took a beating, and a small one on a corner where the air can't really drain got its fronds fried, although the cold wind might have done most of the damage. Grass in the center of the yard in the open then turned a bit yellowish so it must have gotten down to near freezing at least. I saw some personal weather stations away from downtown Orlando recorded below freezing.

Since then it has been so warm with two or three rainy days earlier in the month. A small potted Ceiba Speciosa thinks its March or April and has new leaves about to come out again after just going bare last month. A small potted Cocos has a new spear showing, same thing for a potted P. Reclinata. Also noticed slight growth in plants that would be dormant now.

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Walt

My local radio report (AM 730 out of Sebring, FL) at 9 o'clock this morning is calling for the cold front to start coming through Highlands County between 3-4 this afternoon, accompanied by some wind. They are calling for a low of 48 degrees by morning, and a high tomorrow of 72 degrees.

I know a month ago (or so) they were calling for low 40s several days in advance of an approaching cold front. As the days went by they kept revising the temperatures downward, until they were then forecasting heavy frost in low-lying areas and temperatures near freezing (and frost and freeze there was). I hope that isn't the case this time.

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gsytch

With the wind staying up, I doubt it will get cold enough to even be serious. By Sat, a warmup then cool next Tue/Wed then warming. Nothing of merit. Chilly, yes, for a few nights. NO FREEZE or FROST in my yard yet. Some frost one night on open lawns and fields. Bananas fruiting fine. Mandevilla still blooming with the Stephanotis. Acalyphas all beautiful. Can I get thru one winter without cleanup? Yes, they all come back quickly, but still, it would be nice. :bemused:

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Eric in Orlando

Mid 40s here tonight then 70s over the weekend.

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SubTropicRay

....and then some more mid 40's after the weekend. I fear the worst is yet to come.

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Moose
....and then some more mid 40's after the weekend. I fear the worst is yet to come.

Ray - you are so doom and gloom. However, after the winter of 2010 and the damage you took - it is most understandable. Your posts keep me grounded and my optimism in check. I've come to expect and prepare for the worse. Although we have had a very mild winter so far, my winterizing efforts with heavy mulching and a light feeding of everything K-Mag (22% Potassium/11% Magnesium) has been very beneficial. Last granular fertilizing was done Oct. 1st.

32 more days and counting until the Feb. 20th hurdle. Good chance of no hard freeze if we can make it till then. Keeping my fingers crossed. :winkie:

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edbrown_III

I am enjoying the frost free north Florida but I need to dampen some optismism here--- In defense of Ray , he was around in 83 85 and 89 as well as the very cold 90s he knows how damn cold it can suddlenly get in Florida .

I remember one event about decad ago where Ray forecast this Alberto Clipper type event --- I got all the gear out to cover the Jubeopsis Dypsis and all the very tender stuff. it took almost a week to get everything ready event finally arrive in

Jax very dry and windy --- forecasts were all over the place dew point locally was 10F and was acting like the event in 85 ( it got down to 10F or so at my place) Got colder and colder but the winds never really died down and it got may 20 F tho it got down to 1 6 or 17 F on the west side of the river. I believe the folks in Gainesville probably saw the teens .

The physics were there for the temperature to keep dropping but between the winds and whatever else it never did --- I was very relieved but had gotten good practice to really protect stuff effectively ---- which I didnt do very well in the 80's adn 90s . Enjoy your optimsm but recognize these fronts can dip suddenly almost capriciously and go pretty far south in Florida .

Best regards

Ed

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Cindy Adair

It will be in the low twenties at night next week. Our last frost is usually in April. Can you see why we're moving in a couple of years?

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Walt

When I served in the US Navy (July '67 to July '71) my last duty station was in Key West, Florida, at the long defunct Key West, Naval Station (closed in March of 1973), where my ship was home ported.

I remember one night in February of 1971 (can't recall the exact day now) the temperature dropped to 47 degrees, and I recall it was windy. In retrospect, I would like to try and find some historical temperature records for that day to see what the low temperatures were in other parts of Florida. I suspect freezing temperatures must have dipped into south Florida, at least in inland locations.

I and two navy buddies were camping up on Bahia Honda State Park Key. We had a camp fire and tent on the beach. I recall how I was uncomfortably cold (as I had been spoiled by the heretofore relative warmth of the Keys) and looking up at the swaying palm trees and thinking, this just isn't right! It's not tropical! However, we made the best of it between the camp fire and all the alcoholic beverages we were consuming.

As far as the early '80s freezes. I remember seeing the citrus groves devestation along I-4 when my wife and I were driving along I-4 in June of 1985. I recall just seeing row after row of blackened, leafless, and dead citrus trees. Little did I know then I would one day be living (retired) in Florida. Been here 15+ years now, and hope never to see any major freeze devestation like that of the '80s.

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SubTropicRay

The European forecast model shows cold air headed for Florida next weekend. The NWS refers to it as a "significant cold air outbreak". It sure sounds like a freeze to me.

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PalmatierMeg

Weatherunderground says I should expect a low of 41 overnight 1/26

Weather.com says low should be 50 the same night.

Either way, both forecasts usually reduce their forecast lows as the event nears. A few days ago the local forecaster predicted a low of 50 - that turned out to be 46. Shame on me for believing but I had acute bronchitis and was pretty much bedridden.

All in all I almost expect a cold event in the 30s before the clock runs out on winter. Things have been going almost too well

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gsytch

Yes, the models are not in agreement, but the Euro model is usually the most accurate. That said, it does not appear to be MAJOR but a cold outbreak (or two watch the following week too) is due. I'll keep hoping it is not major, just a brief cold spell.Or two. :yay:

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Moose

Interestingly - today is the 36th Anniversary of the day it snowed in Miami (Jan. 19, 1977). I was a senior in High School and worked at Miller Way Nursery. I remember the event vividly.

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gsytch

Once again they are backing off for the cold, going up with 40'sF. Perhaps 30's far N and E of Tampa Bay but nothing seriously cold in the Bay proper. Hmmmmmmmm

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_Keith

I usually get what north and central florida gets, just a day earlier and my 10 day forecast just jumped considerably warmer. Anything can happen, but I am forecasting this winter as over.

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palmsOrl

It's now January 20th and there is not a freeze in sight for the next 7 days at least. I think this January will end up one of the warmest on record for my area. By February, even if we get a freeze, the days are longer and the highs usually get to at least 50F even on the coldest day of the event. I think we will get a near freeze sometime between January 30 - February 15 but nothing remarkable.

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SubTropicRay

Better news for now.

"....LATEST ECMWF MOS NUMBERS FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT ARE STILL ABOUT 7
TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE GFS MEX NUMBERS AND HAVE THEREFORE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND."

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edbrown_III

Still a zone 10 winter so far for Jax

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JLeVert

I'm in Augusta, GA and have enjoyed a zone 10 winter so far. My low has been 33.4F. Having posted this, I expect to eventually pay for gloating about my high lows. Low tonight is supposed to be 30F which is nothing for us.

post-610-0-39423900-1358891527_thumb.jpg

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gsytch

This shift will bring in chances of colder air, but that persistent subtropical jet stream is deflecting the cold. TWC also predicts that later in Feb it will shift again and spring should be warm. Whatever, if it stays above freezing I am HAPPY! Some rainfall would be welcomed. It has been very dry since early Oct - VERY DRY! :rant:

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SubTropicRay

Ugh...you've been warned.

From the latest CPC discussion:

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 01, 2013

TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING 6-10 DAY
PERIOD OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION. IN GENERAL, THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FAVORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, AND THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. THERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME AMONG THE
MODELS REGARDING BOTH PHASE AND AMPLITUDE. THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN OVER
ALASKA IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE POLEWARD
EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE ACROSS ALASKA AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA,
WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE VARIOUS GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS FAVOR
A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA. IF
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SCENARIO IS CORRECT, BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
TAPPED AND DELIVERED INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, IF A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS ALASKA, THE BITTERLY COLD FLOW
FROM THE ARCTIC WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER, PACIFIC AIR FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY'S WEEK 2 MODEL RUNS, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY BE DISCUSSED
IN THE WEEK 2 NARRATIVE BELOW, HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE BITTERLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR SCENARIO.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 05, 2013

THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS FOR WEEK 2 HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
ALASKA. THE GFS, EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN-BASED MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REACH THE WEST COAST, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN. HAVING TWO DISTINCT POLAR VORTICES
PREDICTED IN THE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD (ONE CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY, AND THE OTHER CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF RUSSIA), WOULD ENABLE
DELIVERY OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD, IN ADVANCE OF THE ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXPECTED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THIS VERY COLD AIR
HAS BEEN TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND MAY BE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
INDICATED.

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gsytch

It is still looking like the brunt of the cold air will deflect east of FL, and we will just cool off 5 degrees or so below normal. Things change that far out, of course, but I noticed long range came up. However, the next 5 days are 75-80F under sun. We do need rain badly. :rant:

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