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tropicbreeze

Sth Hemisphere Cyclone season 2012-13

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Walter John

A weak low is over the Solomon Sea, near 9.4 degrees south 153.5 degrees east, about 750 kms east of Port Moresby. The low is expected to slowly move west south west with a high possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday.

This one looks interesting...

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tropicbreeze

This low is about a week later in the season than Monica. But it's not expected to amount to much, other than rain over the Cape. We'll see though. Sea surface temps are up to 30 in the Coral Sea. If it crosses into the Gulf then temps will be 32. Could do with something to bring rain and drop the temps down. Don't need any wind though.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the Coral Sea is near 12.0 degrees south 154.2 degrees east, about 830 kms east south east of Port Moresby and moving south south west. TCWC Darwin is now picking up on the system suggesting it's expected to cross into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone on Monday has been down graded to moderate, possibility on Tuesday and Wednesday is rated as high.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the Coral Sea is near 12.6 degrees south 153.6 degrees east, about 1,090 kilometres east of Lockhart River and moving west south west. Possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday and Wednesday is still rated as high. Further on it's expected to cross the peninsula into the Gulf and dissipate.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the Coral Sea has intensified into Tropical Cyclone Zane and is near 14.0 degrees south 149.5 degrees east, moving west at about 15 kph. It has rapidly intensified to cat 2 and is expected to become cat 3 overnight. Central pressure 989 hPa, sustained winds are 95 kph gusting to 130 kph.

TC Zane is expected to cross the coast near Lockhart River in the north of the Cape and weaken over land. Although it's not expected to re-strengthen over the Gulf there will be tussle between high sea surface temps and dry air entrainment. This season dry air over the north has had a major impact on weather.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Zane has weakened below tropical cyclone strength and has crossed into the Gulf. The remnants are not expected to re-intensify.

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tropicbreeze

A low pressure system is developing in the Indian Ocean near 4.5 degrees south 79.1 degrees east, approximately 800 kilometres east north east of Diego Garcia. Conditions over the next 72 hours should be favourable for further intensification.

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tropicbreeze

The low pressure system in the Indian Ocean is currently near 6.2 degrees south 82.6 degrees east, about 1120 kms east of Diego Garcia. Possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is rated as high.

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tropicbreeze

The low pressure system in the Indian Ocean is currently near 6.9 degrees south 85.6 degrees east, about 1435 kms east of Diego Garcia. It has been tracking south south east at about 7.5 kph. The low is expected to intensify to tropical cyclone strength on Friday or over the weekend.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the Indian Ocean has intensified and is now Moderate Tropical Storm Jamala, located about 8.2 degrees south 86.1 degrees east, central pressure 995 hPa. It's situated about 3550 kms east north east of La Reunion and moving south at about 4 kph. Sustained wind about 65 kph. It's expected to turn westwards and develop into a Severe Tropical Storm within 36 hours.

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tropicbreeze

Jamala dissipated before reaching tropical cyclone intensity.

Two lows are situated off the north west of Australia. One is near 15 degrees south 104 degrees east. It's expected to remain stationary and dissipate late during the week.

Another low is near 17 degrees south 114 degrees east and is moving eastwards towards the southern Kimberley coast. It's not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone but is expected to bring rain to the North West and the Top End late in the week.

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