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tropicbreeze

Sth Hemisphere Cyclone season 2012-13

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Sandra Cat 1 is near 14.9 degrees south 157.0 degrees east and moving east north east at about 9 kph. Central pressure is 989 hPa, wind speed 85 kph gusting to 120 kph. It's expected to continue intensifying and reach a peak passing west of New Caledonia in a few days.

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fan palm

Have been watching this for the last week, look out new caledonia. bom has predicted this to be a cat 4 by monday, so could be a cat 5 by the time it hits the north east coast of new cal. Hope they are prepared...

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tropicbreeze

The track is expected to stay west of New Caledonia, but the area of possible tracks includes the whole island. What's steering the system at present is a ridge along the equator which is pushing it eastwards. It's expected that steering will be taken over by a ridge currently to the south and moving eastwards. This should deflect TC Sandra more towards the west resulting in a south east movement, hopefully missing the island. Peak should be reached while still north west of New Caledonia, then increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will bring about a weakening.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Sandra Cat 2 is near 15.4 degrees south 158.8 degrees east and moving east south east at about 9 kph. Central pressure is 980 hPa, sustained wind speed 110 kph gusting to 155 kph. It's expected to continue intensifying and peak in 48 hours, tracking a little more southwards. It will then be moving into an area of sharply increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures.

A low in the Indian Ocean is near 17.2 degrees south 76.8 degrees east and moving south south west at about 7 kph. It's situated about 1185 kms south south east of Diego Garcia. It's in an area of high vertical wind shear but other factors are more favourable for intensification making chance of development into a tropical cyclone high.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Sandra Cat 4 is near 16.2 degrees south 161.0 degrees east and moving east south east at about 9 kph. Central pressure is 940 hPa, sustained wind speed 165 kph. Movement is expected to shift to the south south east after 24 hours.

The low in the Indian Ocean is now near 13.8 degrees south 78.5 degrees east. The low level centre of circulation has become very disorganised and sea temperatures marginal. Possibility for development into a tropical cyclone has been downgraded.

A tropical low has formed over the Arnhem District of the Top End. The low is expected to develop during the next couple of days and move over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Sandra Cat 4 is near 17.6 degrees south 161.7 degrees east and moving south at about 10 kph. Central pressure is 935 hPa, sustained wind speed is estimated at 170 kph. Sandra is already showing a weakening trend with vertical wind shear moderate and outflow decreasing. It's expected to commence extra tropical transition in 72 hours

The low in the Indian Ocean which was near 13.8 degrees south 78.5 degrees east has dissipated and is now unlikely to develop into a cyclone.

The low over the Arnhem region is visible on Gove radar:
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR091.loop.shtml

It's located near 12.5 degrees south 136.5 degrees east and moving eastwards. It's expected to cross Cape York Peninsula and continue moving eastwards across the Coral Sea. It's in an area of low vertical wind shear but outflow is marginal.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Sandra Cat 3 is near 20.9 degrees south 161.8 degrees east and moving south at about 18 kph. Central pressure is 970 hPa, sustained wind speed is estimated at 120 kph. Vertical wind shear is now high, outflow is still good. It's expected to commence extra tropical transition in 48 hours and have completed in 72 hours

The low over the Gulf of Carpentaria, 998 hPa, is near 11.5 degrees south 139.4 degrees east, about 330 kms east of Nhulunbuy, and moving eastwards. Vertical wind shear is low to moderate. It's still expected to cross Cape York Peninsula near the northern tip and continue moving eastwards across the Coral Sea.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Sandra Cat 1 is near 24.6 degrees south 161.8 degrees east and moving south at about 18 kph. Central pressure is 990 hPa, sustained wind speed is about 75 kph. Vertical wind shear is high, sea surface temperature about 25. It's expected to move generally southwards and could reintensify to cat 2 in 12 to 18 hours as it approaches Lord Howe Island. Gales to 110 kph are expected on the island Thursday morning, possibly intensifying and gusting to 150 kph by afternoon.

The low previously over the Gulf of Carpentaria is near 12.3 degrees south 144.4 degrees east, central pressure 997hPa, and moving east south east at about 24 kph. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and continue moving generally east south eastwards.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Sandra has reintensified to Cat 2. Iis near 30.7 degrees south 161.3 degrees east and moving south at about 33 kph. Central pressure is 978 hPa. Lord Howe Island is currently experiencing gales to 125 kph, expected to increase to 150 kph during the night, with gusts persisting to 100kph until Friday evening as TC Sandra moves away.

The low in the northern Coral Sea is now Tropical Cyclone Tim Cat 2 and is near 14.9 degrees south 149.9 degrees east. Central pressure is 984 hPa, and movement is east south east at about 28 kph. It's expected to intensify slightly over the next 36 hours before turning south, then westwards while rapidly weakening, and subsequently recurving to the north west as a tropical low.

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tropicbreeze

Ex Tropical Cyclone Sandra, central pressure 992 hPa, is near 33 degrees south 162 degrees east. It's not expected to reintensify.

Tropical Cyclone Tim Cat 1 is near 16.4 degrees south 154.0 degrees east. Central pressure is 994 hPa, and movement is east south east at about 20 kph. It's in an area of moderate but increasing vertical wind shear which should cause a weakening of the system over the next couple of days. Tomorrow (Saturday) morning it's expected to take a more south westerly track.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Tim Cat 1 is near 17.1 degrees south 153.9 degrees east. Central pressure is 995 hPa, and movement is south south west at about 7 kph. Sustained wind 65 kph, gusting to 95 kph. It's expected to swing to the south west and then westwards from the influence of the ridge crossing the Great Australian Bight.

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tropicbreeze

Ex Tropical Cyclone Tim is near 18.7 degrees south 153.0 degrees east. Central pressure is 998 hPa, and movement is south south west at about 10 kph. Sustained wind 55 kph, gusting to 80 kph. It's expected to swing westwards in the next 12 to 18 hours.There is some conjecture that it may move right up and across into the Gulf of Carpentaria where very high sea surface temperatures could bring about reintensification. However there's a lot of dry air being wrapped into the system so there soon may not be anything left to move into the Gulf.

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tropicbreeze

Ex Tropical Cyclone Tim is near 19.3 degrees south 152.0 degrees east. Central pressure is 1000 hPa, and movement is south west at about 4 kph.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Low Ex Tim is near 19.0 degrees south 150.9 degrees east. Central pressure is 1004 hPa, and movement is west at about 7.5 kph.


A low has formed in the monsoon trough off the North West Australian coast near 11 degrees south 108 degrees east. It's expected to move slowly westwards.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Low ex-Tim central pressure 1007 hPa is about 210 kms north east of Townsville and moving north westwards at about 20 kph. It's expected to gradually weaken and cross the Queensland coast on Thursday (tomorrow).

The low off the north west Australian coast is near 13 degrees south 102 degrees east. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday or Saturday. It's expected to move out of the Australian zone and into the La Reunion zone during Saturday.

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tropicbreeze

The low off the north west Australian coast is near 14.0 degrees south 96.8 degrees east. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early Friday but then dissipate again by Friday night due to increasing vertical wind shear.

A low is expected to develop in a trough situated in the Coral Sea in the next few days.

A trough is developing in the Arafura Sea off the north east Arnhem Land coast. Long range modelling has suggested a tropical cyclone developing in the trough and moving westwards. However long range modelling can be quite inaccurate.

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tropicbreeze

The low off the north west Australian coast is near 14.2 degrees south 93.8 degrees east. The low failed to develop into a tropical cyclone today, gales to its south didn't wrap right around the system, a prerequisite for classification as a tropical cyclone. It's now moving into an area of higher vertical wind shear.

The weather bureau has dropped all references to a low developing in the Coral Sea in the next few days.

A trough is developing in the Arafura Sea off the north east Arnhem Land coast/Gulf of Carpentaria. A low pressure system is expected to form early next week.

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tropicbreeze

The low off the north west Australian coast is near 17.5 degrees south 88.1 degrees east. It's moving into an area of higher vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures. It is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.

A monsoon trough is developing in the Arafura Sea off the north east Arnhem Land coast/Gulf of Carpentaria. A low pressure system is still expected to form early in the week.

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tropicbreeze

A low is beginning to develop in the monsoon trough in the Arafura Sea. It's expected to move slowly south westwards over the next few days.

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tropicbreeze

The low has developed in the Arafura Sea just off the Top End coast, central pressure 1005 hPa. It's expected to move slowly south west into the western Top End or Timor Sea.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the Arafura Sea is situated just above the Tiwi Islands. It's moving slowly south west.

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tropicbreeze

The Top End low has moved over the Darwin area and is still expected to continue moving slowly south west. It's in a area of low to moderate vertical wind shear but sea surface temperatures off the coast are around 33C. From looking at weather radar it appears the low level centre of circulation is near Katherine at the moment.

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tropicbreeze

There's conflicting information on the location of the Top End low. On weather radar it appears to be just south west of Katherine, inland. Central pressure is 1003 hPa (weather charts indicate 1002 Hpa). It's expected to continue drifting slowly west to south west and move into the western zone on Sunday. It's still in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. Nearby sea surface temperatures are very high, up to 33C.

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tropicbreeze

The Top End low is still over land as it is almost stationary. Central pressure 1002 Hpa. It's expected to move west early next week.

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tropicbreeze

The Top End Low is still relatively stationary and is located near Katherine. Vertical wind shear has risen to high levels. It's still expected (eventually) to move westwards during the week.

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tropicbreeze

The Top End Low is moving off shore into Joseph Bonaparte Gulf but is dissipating.

A low is expected to develop in the monsoon trough to the north of Western Australia over the next few days.

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tropicbreeze

The Top End Low is moving westwards above the Kimberley coast of WA and weakening.

A low is developing in the monsoon trough north of WA. It is expected to move westwards.

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tropicbreeze

The low north of WA along the monsoon trough is near 6 degrees south 98 degrees east.

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tropicbreeze

A developing low is near 9.6 degrees south 76.6 degrees east, about 520 kms east south east of Diego Garcia. Conditions are favourable for further development.

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tropicbreeze

A low is situated in the Indian Ocean near 10.7 degrees south 78.1 degrees east, about 715 kms east south east of Diego Garcia. Vertical wind shear is moderate but other factors are more favourable for development. The low in the monsoon trough north of WA is near 6 degrees south 100 degrees east. It remains weak and moving westwards slowly.

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tropicbreeze

The low situated in the Indian Ocean is near 11.6 degrees south 74.8 degrees east, about 500 kms south south east of Diego Garcia, 2280 kms east north east of La Reunion. Central pressure 1001 hPa. Vertical wind shear has eased and other factors remain favourable for intensification.

The low in the monsoon trough north of WA is still near 6 degrees south 100 degrees east, about 740 kms north north east of Cocos Island. It remains weak and moving westwards slowly. Possibility of development into a tropiocal cyclone increases next week.

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tropicbreeze

The low situated in the Indian Ocean is near 10.7 degrees south 70.2 degrees east, about 1925 kms north east of La Reunion, moving westwardsat 15 kph. Central pressure 999 hPa. Vertical wind shear remains moderate.

The low in the monsoon trough north of WA is near 7 degrees south 98 degrees east, about 620 kms north north east of Cocos Island and moving south south east. Possibility of development into a tropiocal cyclone by Tuesday is high.

The monsoon trough is redeveloping in the Arafura Sea. A low pressure system is likely to develop above the Gulf of Carpentaria by Thursday.

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tropicbreeze

The low situated in the Indian Ocean is near 11.2 degrees south 65.1 degrees east, about 1475 kms north east of La Reunion, moving westwards at 22 kph. Central pressure 996 hPa. Vertical wind shear remains moderate.

The low in the monsoon trough north of WA is near 9 degrees south 101 degrees east, about 520 kms north west of Christmas Island and moving southwards. Possibility of development into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday or Wednesday is moderate. It's under high vertical wind shear but if it continues to track south wind shear should weaken.

The monsoon trough is redeveloping in the Arafura Sea. A low pressure system is still considered likely to develop above the Gulf of Carpentaria by Thursday.

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tropicbreeze

The low situated in the Indian Ocean is now Severe Tropical Storm Imelda and is near 11.5 degrees south 60.9 degrees east, about 1185 kms north north east of La Reunion, moving westwards at 17 kph. Central pressure 986 hPa. It's expected to become a tropical cyclone within 24 hours and a severe tropical cyclone within 72 hours.

The low in the monsoon trough north of WA is near 11.5 degrees south 102.4 degrees east, about 380 kms west south west of Christmas Island and moving south south east at 17 kph. It is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

The monsoon trough is redeveloping in the Arafura Sea. A low pressure system is still considered likely to develop above the Gulf of Carpentaria in the next couple of days. It's not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

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tropicbreeze

Severe Tropical Storm Imelda is near 12.9 degrees south 57.8 degrees east, about 925 kms north north east of La Reunion, moving southwards at 6 kph. Central pressure 974 hPa. It's expected to become a tropical cyclone within 24 hours.

The low in the monsoon trough north of WA has been named Tropical Cyclone Victoria Cat. 2, is near 18.6 degrees south 104.6 degrees east and moving south at 19 kph. It's expected to remain off shore until it dissipates Friday.

Another low is expected to develop around 10 degrees south 110 degrees east.

A low pressure system is in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. It's not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

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tropicbreeze

Moderate Tropical Storm Imelda is near 14.8 degrees south 59.2 degrees east, about 775 kms north north east of La Reunion, moving south south east at 13 kph. Central pressure 995 hPa. An increasingly unfavourable environment will cause the system to dissipate over the next 72 hours.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Victoria is near 24.4 degrees south 106.4 degrees east. It has dissipated due to increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures.

Another low has developed near 9.7 degrees south 113.50 degrees east. It's expected to track westwards over the weekend and into next week.

A low pressure system is in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria, central pressure 1006 hPa. It's slow moving and not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next few days.

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tropicbreeze

Moderate Tropical Storm Imelda is near 16.6 degrees south 59.1 degrees east, about 600 kms north east of La Reunion, moving south south west at 6 kph. Central pressure 991 hPa. Although there has been some recent intensification, the environment will still become unfavourable over the next few days.

A low is near 9.7 degrees south 111.5 degrees east. It's expected to track westwards over the weekend and into next week.

The low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria, central pressure 1008 hPa is slow moving and not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next few days.

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tropicbreeze

Imelda has intensified to tropical cyclone strength, central pressure 978 hPa. It's situated near 17.5 degrees south 59.7 degrees east, currently 570 kms north east of La Reunion and moving south east at 11 kph. It's still expected to dissipate over the next few days.

There are a number low pressure systems across the tropical north of Australia. They are weak, however, and not expected to develop into tropical cyclones in the near future.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Imelda, central pressure 973 hPa, ss situated near 19.2 degrees south 61.7 degrees east, currently 595 kms east north east of La Reunion and moving south east at 13 kph. It's still expected to dissipate over the next day or so.

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tropicbreeze

A weak low is over the Solomon Sea, near 9.4 degrees south 153.5 degrees east, about 750 kms east of Port Moresby. The low is expected to slowly move west south west with a high possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday.

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