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tropicbreeze

Sth Hemisphere Cyclone season 2012-13

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Freda Cat 2 is near 19.1 degrees South 161.5 degrees East, and moving south south east at about 13 kph and weakening. Within 24 hours it's expected to be Cat 1.

The system situated 10.3 degrees South 85.0 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains the same with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. It's in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. Current position remains about 1410 kms east of Diego Garcia.

The system situated about 12.2 degrees South 55.9 degrees East (Indian Ocean) is now Moderate Tropical Storm Dumile with a central pressure estimated at 989 hPa. It's expected to develop into a severe tropical storm within 24 hours and a tropical cyclone in 36 hours. It's expected to begin curving southwards and track south south west for the next 48 hours. Thursday morning Dumile should pass to the west of La Reunion.

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tropicbreeze

Over night Freda weakened to below tropical cyclone strength.

The system situated 8.9 degrees South 84.5 degrees East (Indian Ocean) has been upgraded to a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. It's in an area of moderate vertical wind shear but wind shear to the north is high assisting development by providing better equatorward outflow. Current position is about 1330 kms east of Diego Garcia.

Severe Tropical Storm Dumile with a central pressure estimated at 983 hPa is situated near 14.1 south 55.6 east and moving south south west at about 11 kph. It's approximately 750 kms north of La Reunion.

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tropicbreeze

The remnants of Freda are passing over New Caledonia as a tropical low. Friday it's expected to do a sharp westerly turn taking it away from the island.

The system situated 8.9 degrees South 84.5 degrees East (Indian Ocean) has remained fairly static. Chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term remains high. Vertical wind shear is still moderate. Current position remains about 1330 kms east of Diego Garcia.

Severe Tropical Storm Dumile with a central pressure estimated at 982 hPa is situated near 16.5 south 55.2 east and moving south south west at about 24 kph. It's approximately 485 kms north of La Reunion. The alert has been upgraded to orange, the system is expected to intensify to a tropical cyclone and pass the island in 24 hours.

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Wednesday 2 January 2013
Monsoon trough forms north of Australia

The monsoon trough is becoming organized over the southern Maritime Continent as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has been erratic, gains strength in the region. The MJO is expected to enhance convection, increase rainfall totals, and increase the risk of tropical cyclone formation within the monsoon trough for the next two weeks. Northern Australia may see an increase of wet weather, but there is uncertainty as to whether the monsoon trough will move south over the continent or remain to the north.

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tropicbreeze

The system situated 9.3 degrees South 84.9 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. Vertical wind shear is now strong. Current position is about 1410 kms east of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dumile with a central pressure estimated at 972 hPa is situated near 20.8 south 54.3 east and moving south at about 24 kph. It's approximately 95 kms west north west of La Reunion. The alert for the island has been upgraded to red. Winds gusting over 150 kph are expected.

A low has developed in the monsoon trough just west of Timor. It's expected to develop slowly and move west south west before developing into a tropical cyclone next week.

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tropicbreeze

The system situated 9.8 degrees South 80.6 degrees East (Indian Ocean) has been down graded to a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. Vertical wind shear remains strong (about 75 KPH). Current position is about 970 kms east of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dumile estimated central pressure 972 hPa is about 450 kms south south west of La Reunion and moving south at 22 kph, expected to become extratropical in 24 hours.

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tropicbreeze

The system situated 11.3 degrees South 80.5 degrees East (Indian Ocean) has been moving erratically, most recently towards the south east. Chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term remains medium. Vertical wind shear is moderate. Current position is about 990 kms east of Diego Garcia.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Dumile now an extratropical depression estimated central pressure 978 hPa is about 865 kms south of La Reunion and moving south east at 31 kph. Current location about 29.1 degrees south 56.7 degrees east.

Two low pressure systems are developing in the monsoon trough line to the north west of Australia. A weak low is situated about 11.0 degrees south 108 degrees east. It's expected to drift slowly south east and weaken.

A low in the Timor Sea is situated about 10 degrees south 125.8 degrees east. It's expected to move west south west and develop into a tropical cyclone Monday or Tuesday.

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tropicbreeze

The system situated 12.7 degrees South 79.7 degrees East (Indian Ocean) is about 990 kms east of Diego Garcia. Chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term has been down graded to low.

A low in the Timor Sea is located about 11.1 degrees south 125.5 degrees east with a central pressure of 1001 hPa and situated about 600 kms west of Darwin. It's under low vertical wind shear and over sea surface temperatures of 30C to 31C. It's now expected to move westwards and develop into a tropical cyclone Tuesday or Wednesday.

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tropicbreeze

The system situated 12.7 degrees South 79.7 degrees East (Indian Ocean) has now dissipated.

A low in the Timor Sea is located about 11.4 degrees south 121.7 degrees east with a central pressure of 1001 hPa and situated about 790 kms west of Darwin moving west south west at 15 kph. It's expected to move south westwards and develop into a tropical cyclone Tuesday or Wednesday. Thursday it may track more to the south south west bringing it near the west Pilbara coast.

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tropicbreeze

The low situated in the Timor Sea is now Tropical Cyclone Narelle cat 1 and is near 11.9 degrees south 118.4 degrees east. It's moving west at 16 kph but is expected to curve more southwards. Conditions are favourable for intensification and TC Narelle is expected to reach cat 4 intensity before moving over cooler waters. In the long term it may approach Northwest Cape.

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Tyrone

Some models are predicting that it will come close to the west coast of NW Cape and skirt the coast crossing near Perth. So far the BOM is saying it will be 991hPa central pressure down my way, which could place it as a tropical low. Still way too early to know what this thing will do, but if it misses NW cape it's coming south.

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tropicbreeze

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle cat 3 is situated about 13.2 degrees south 116.4 degrees east and moving south south west at about 10 kph. Central pressure is 972 hPa, sustained winds 120 kph gusting to 165 kph. Conditions for intensification should remain favourable over the next 24 to 36 hours. Subsequently it will come under decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear. There is a watch out from Onslow to Whim Creek. Gales may reach the coast by Friday morning. There is a possibility of a land impact over the weekend.

It appears most models are favouring a track further west out to sea, but that far ahead it's always uncertain. If it comes under the influence of some of the intense ridging up from south of the continent it could end up in the westerly stream even south of the continent. Long range it's still very much in the lap of the gods.

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tropicbreeze

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle cat 3 is situated about 14.0 degrees south 115.8 degrees east and moving south south west at about 8 kph. Central pressure is 960 hPa, sustained winds 140 kph gusting to 195 kph. Conditions for intensification should remain favourable over the next 48 hours. A cyclone watch is now extended from Whim Creek to Coral Bay. Gales are still expected to reach the coast by Friday. Also the possibility of a land impact over the weekend remains.

Most models seem to have shifted the track a little further east, but still off the coast. However, after 72 hours it may be over cooler sea surface temperatures and also drawing in drier and cooler air.

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Tyrone

So what do you reckon. Will we get rain from it in Perth?

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tropicbreeze

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle cat 4 is situated about 17.4 degrees south 113.5 degrees east and moving south west at about 13 kph. Central pressure is 946 hPa, sustained winds 165 kph gusting to 230 kph. There is a cyclone warning from Roebourne to Coral Bay. A cyclone watch extends Coral Bay to Carnarvon. Narelle is expected to peak in 24 hours. The possibility of a land impact is diminishing.

Tyrone, these days betting on the weather would be riskier than usual. But if I had to bet I'd say most of the rain from this system will be further south, probably down Margaret River way. Looks like the cyclone will keep its distance from the coast and by the time it's caught in the westerly flow it'll probably be well south and lining up for the bottom of the continent. All will be clearer by mid next week.

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tropicbreeze

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle cat 4 is situated about 18.7 degrees south 111.8 degrees east and moving south west at about 9 kph. Central pressure is 935 hPa, sustained winds 185 kph gusting to 260 kph. There is a cyclone warning from Onslow to Cape Cuvier. A cyclone watch extends from Cape Cuvier to Denham. Narelle appears to have peaked over night, although there have been some fluctuations in intensity. It's increasingly likely land impact will not happen. When the system gets to about 22 degrees south sea surface temperatures will be below 26C and bring about further weakening.

A low pressure has developed off the northern Arnhem Land Coast and is situated about 9 degrees south 134 degrees east. Central pressure is 1006 hPa. It's expected to develop slowly over the next few days as it drifts towards the Timor Sea. Some of the longer range modelling suggests it may impact the northern Kimberley coast.

A low pressure in the Pacific Ocean is located about 13.2 degrees south 177.8 degrees east, approximately 700 kms north east of Nadi. Chances of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term are low.

A low pressure in the Indian Ocean is located about 12.3 degrees south 81.2 degrees east, approximately 1100 kms east south east of Diego Garcia. This apprears to be the same low that persisted in the area a short time back. It's showing signs of developing again, chances of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term are low.

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tropicbreeze

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle cat 3 is situated about 22.0 degrees south 110.7 degrees east and moving south south west at about 14 kph. Central pressure is 968 hPa, sustained winds 120 kph gusting to 165 kph. The cyclone warning from Exmouth to Denham has been cancelled. Narelle is not expected to impact the coast before weakening. But a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for that area for today.

The low pressure off the northern Arnhem Land Coast is situated about 11 degrees south 129 degrees east. Central pressure is 1004 hPa. It's expected to develop slowly over the next few days as it drifts towards the Timor Sea.

The low pressure in the Pacific Ocean is now located about 15.0 degrees south 178.7 degrees east, approximately 300 kms east north east of Nadi, central pressure 999 hPa. It's expected to move south east and develop further.

The low pressure in the Indian Ocean located about 11.6 degrees south 80.9 degrees east has now been upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Emang. Situated approximately 1010 kms east south east of Diego Garcia, 2870 kms east north east of La Reunion, central pressure 998 hPa, and moving north east at 4 kph. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in 72 hours.

You can see below how erratic Emang's track history has been. But they're expecting it to follow the "straight and narrow" soon.

post-4226-0-17530900-1358061937_thumb.pn

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Narelle cat 1 continues to weaken and is situated about 26.3 degrees south 109.7 degrees east and moving south at about 20 kph. Central pressure is 987 hPa, sustained winds 85 kph gusting to 120 kph.

The low pressure off the Northern Territory coast is situated about 11.9 degrees south 125.7 degrees east. It's still drifting towards the Timor Sea and is expected to continue to develop.

The low pressure in the Pacific Ocean is now located about 17.3 degrees south 177.2 degrees east, approximately 450 kms east north east of Nadi, central pressure 1000 hPa. It's moving east at about 17 kph.

Emang has now been down graded to Tropical Depression ex-Emang, central pressure 999hPa. Located near 12.5 degrees south 79.5 degrees east, 2690 kms east north east of La Reunion, moving south west at 9kph. It's expected to briefly reach Strong Tropical Storm strength in 72 hours.

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tropicbreeze

Narelle has been further down graded, Tropical Depression ex-Narelle, situated near 32.1 degrees south 111.6 degrees east, central pressure 1000 hPa. It's expected to turn south east and pass by the south west of WA tonight.

The low pressure previously off the Northern Territory coast is now off the Kimberley coast and situated about 14.5 degrees south 121.0 degrees east, moving west south west at 20 to 25 kph. It's now under high vertical wind shear and moving into waters with marginal warmth for development. It's not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone before reaching cool waters.

The low pressure in the Pacific Ocean is now located about 19.6 degrees south 173.9 degrees west, central pressure 1000 hPa. It's moving east south east at about 22 kph. It's expected to continue moving east south east with slight intensification

Another low is developing north of Vanuatu, near 12.0 degrees south 166.0 degrees east, central pressure 1003 hPa.

Tropical Depression ex-Emang, central pressure 1001 hPa, located near 13.5 degrees south 78.9 degrees east, 2590 kms east north east of La Reunion, currently quasi-stationary. It's expected to reach Moderate Tropical Storm strength in 48 hours.

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tropicbreeze

The low pressure previously off the Kimberley coast is now situated off the Pilbara coast and is dissipating. It's not expected to develop any further.

The low pressure in the Pacific Ocean previously located about 19.6 degrees south 173.9 degrees west is moving south east and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

The low north of Vanuatu, is now near 10.8 degrees south 165.5 degrees east, central pressure 1003 hPa. It's slow moving but expected to go east south east

Tropical Depression ex-Emang, central pressure 1002 hPa, located near 13.9 degrees south 77.9 degrees east, 2475 kms east north east of La Reunion, moving west at about 6 kph. It's not expected to intensify any further.

A low is beginning to develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Due to its proximity to land it may possibly move over land before reaching tropical cyclone intensity.

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tropicbreeze

The low north of Vanuatu, is now near 12.1 degrees south 169.4 degrees east, central pressure 1003 hPa. It's still slow moving and still expected to move east south east

A low is still expected to develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Due to its formation close to land it may possibly move over land suring the weekend before reaching tropical cyclone intensity.

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Tyrone

Tyrone, these days betting on the weather would be riskier than usual. But if I had to bet I'd say most of the rain from this system will be further south, probably down Margaret River way. Looks like the cyclone will keep its distance from the coast and by the time it's caught in the westerly flow it'll probably be well south and lining up for the bottom of the continent. All will be clearer by mid next week.

Correct. That's exactly what happened.

It felt quite cold today. It barely hit 25C, and the air is dry again.

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tropicbreeze

The low north of Vanuatu, is now near 11.5 degrees south 171.4 degrees east, central pressure 1002 hPa. It's still slow moving and still expected to move east south east in the longer term.

A low has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria near 17.7 degrees south 138.2 degrees east, moving south at 7 kph. It may develop into a cyclone over Saturday night or Sunday. A cyclone watch has been declared for the coast from Mornington Island to Aurukun.

Tyrone, this season it's been easier to take the pessimistic option with a good chance of being right. My personal theory is that the jetstream has moved (back in winter) into a position so it's directing Antarctic air up our way. That air is fairly dry and as it warms the RH drops even more. Over the continent it get heated due to no cloud cover and the fact that dry air heats very rapidly. This is causing the heat waves down south as the westerly stream pushes that hot dry air east. Meantime the presence of the "heat dome" with its dry hot air going high into the atmosphere has been keeping the monsoon from arriving. That exacerbates the situation, like a Catch 22. But the monsoon arrived here today, the heat dome does eventually create a low pressure area (heat lows) which must eventually draw the monsoon down. So maybe this will be the start of the turn around, hopefully.

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tropicbreeze

I haven't fallen asleep, the computer chucked a hissy fit so I've been "off air".

Meantime, Tropical Cyclone Oswald developed into a Cat 1 in the Gulf of Carpentaria but being so close to land moved onto Cape York Peninsula and was down graded. It's continuing as a tropical low and bringing strong winds and rain to the area.

Another low began developing near Broome in Western Australia. It's moving roughly parallel to the coast. It's expected to reach Cat 1 intensity tomorrow and impact the coast on the Burrup Peninsula tomorrow evening. There's a cyclone warning for the coast from De Grey to Mardie, and a cyclone watch from Mardie to Onslow.

The low that was north of Vanuatu has developed into Tropical Cyclone Garry Cat 1. Situated near 12.9 degrees south 170.7 degrees west and moving east south east at approximately 17 kph. It's expected to intensify to Cat 3 in 24 to 48 hours while tracking towards the Southern Cook Islands.

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tropicbreeze

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is still over Cape York Peninsula as a tropical low and bringing strong winds and rain to the area. It's expected to move further inland south westwards.

The Western Australian low has intensified and been named Tropical Cyclone Peta Cat. 1 and is situated off the Pilbara coast, near 20.1 degrees south 117.7 degrees east. Central pressure 996 hPa, sustained winds 55 kph with gusts to 85 kph, moving west south west at 8 kph. It has been tracking very erratically and is now expected to impact the coast near Roebourne tonight. There is a cyclone warning for the area between Port Hedland and Mardie, and inland to Pannawonica

Tropical Cyclone Garry has intensified to Cat. 2. Situated near 13.6 degrees south 168.5 degrees west and moving east south east at approximately 11 kph. Outflow in the upper level is only marginal and it possibly may not intensify to Cat.3.

A low is developing in the western Indian Ocean, near 23.6 degrees south 38.8 degrees east, approximately 990 kms south west of Antananarivo.

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Tropicgardener
Rains a comin... :greenthumb:

Yes indeed...........it is coming your way. It is hammering down here at present from the monsoon trough.............we have had well over 200mm in the past 24hrs. with more coming but hey we really need it.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Garry has now intensified to Cat. 3, central pressure 975 hPa. Situated near 14.0 degrees south 165.2 degrees west and moving south east at approximately 18 kph, sustained winds at 120 kph. It's expected to weaken over night and tomorrow.

The low in the western Indian Ocean is now near 23.9 degrees south 41.8 degrees east, approximately 675 kms south south west of Antananarivo. The system is subject to high vertical wind shear making the possibility of intensification low.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is now situated inland near Townsville which is also where the monsoon trough lies. There's been some extremely heavy rain to the north. The rain to the south is coming from the strong pressure gradients between the ex-cyclone and a ridge in the south Tasman sea. As the system moves southwards it will keep tightening the gradients leading to a lot of rain in the south east of Queensland. So if you're wanting the rain you shouldn't be disappointed over the next few days.

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NApalm

Saying i want rain is an understatement. Been showering on and off and more coming! Just been running my tank with the gravity feed non stop all over. As long as the rain keep coming ill keep draining!

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Kennybenjamin

Yes, certainly very welcome rains about to occurr for SEQ I think. Palms seem to know its coming.... Many spears that appeared to be idle are opening right now. About time too..... Has been a testing few months for us round these parts!!

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Tropicgardener

We have received about 550mm of rain in the past day and half............winds are now gusting up to 90km/h and plenty more rain is falling. Had to drive to work this morning in dangerous conditions only to be turned around when I got there....they could have rang me instead.........no trainloads of black gold being moved today.

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NApalm

i heard the bulk carriers have pushed out to sea to ride out the cyclone! Must be serious for the mining companies to stop shipping!

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Tropicgardener
i heard the bulk carriers have pushed out to sea to ride out the cyclone! Must be serious for the mining companies to stop shipping!

The rail lines are sodden, some are close to flooding.......too dangerous to send 12 000t coal trains over them. Port area is flooded and they can't load anyway. Highway is cut in a number of spots to the south and north of here.......just went down the beach and it is very rough, winds are still gusting up to 90km/h. Only one casualty so far in my garden........my big Sacred Bali Bamboo has blown over.

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NApalm

Nooooo! Pouring here now. Gotta say im loving it

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Cycadcenter
i heard the bulk carriers have pushed out to sea to ride out the cyclone! Must be serious for the mining companies to stop shipping!

The rail lines are sodden, some are close to flooding.......too dangerous to send 12 000t coal trains over them. Port area is flooded and they can't load anyway. Highway is cut in a number of spots to the south and north of here.......just went down the beach and it is very rough, winds are still gusting up to 90km/h. Only one casualty so far in my garden........my big Sacred Bali Bamboo has blown over.

We've had just on 300mm down at Childers, no problems yet as most has soaked in but expecting another 3-400mm before it's over,

It just seems to be sitting over the top of you now.

Heard that the dam was 4.8m over the spillway with a lot of rain in the catchment of the Boyne River,

Looks like that are evacuating some of Tannum Sands and Gladstone so good luck,

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Daryl

BOM reported that some areas of southern Capricornia have received 900mm (36") in the last 48 hours.

Still only minor falls down here,,,could do with a bit more...

Daryl

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Cycadcenter
BOM reported that some areas of southern Capricornia have received 900mm (36") in the last 48 hours.

Still only minor falls down here,,,could do with a bit more...

Daryl

I just tipped 128mm from the gauge which was from Noon. so it's coming to you

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Tropicgardener
i heard the bulk carriers have pushed out to sea to ride out the cyclone! Must be serious for the mining companies to stop shipping!

The rail lines are sodden, some are close to flooding.......too dangerous to send 12 000t coal trains over them. Port area is flooded and they can't load anyway. Highway is cut in a number of spots to the south and north of here.......just went down the beach and it is very rough, winds are still gusting up to 90km/h. Only one casualty so far in my garden........my big Sacred Bali Bamboo has blown over.

We've had just on 300mm down at Childers, no problems yet as most has soaked in but expecting another 3-400mm before it's over,

It just seems to be sitting over the top of you now.

Heard that the dam was 4.8m over the spillway with a lot of rain in the catchment of the Boyne River,

Looks like that are evacuating some of Tannum Sands and Gladstone so good luck,

Yeah I am all good here as I am on the hill in Tannum Sands.........we have now had 980mm of rain in the past couple of days and it is still falling......had a cloud burst before that produced about 90mm of rain in 30 minutes........hang on tight down there in Childers, hopefully you are inland enough not to get the 90km/h winds like I had here..........just been told 2 tornadoes have ripped through Bargara and Burnett Heads !!!

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NApalm

Hang in there guys. Hope nothing gets blown over

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Tropicgardener
Hang in there guys. Hope nothing gets blown over

Apart from my bamboo my Heliconias and torch gingers have been flattened and a young Coconut palm has falled over I think due to over 1000mm of rain saturating the ground.

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