Sth Hemisphere Cyclone season 2012-13

[Walter John]

I see there are some Tornadoes associated with this low pressure cell...apparently several have hit around Bundaberg overnight.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/tornado-warning-issued-as-ex-cyclone-oswald-bears-down-on-southeast/story-e6freoof-1226562642052

Daryl

One hit Mooloolaba, only damage to plants fortunately.

[Daryl]

We are getting the tail of ex Cyclone 'Ossie' now, most of the rain has stopped, but it is a bit blowy around the place. Constant wind of 64km/h and gusts to 98km/h....enough to bring a few branches down...235mm (9+ ") of rain overnight so no more for the rest of the week thanks mother nature!

Daryl

[Daryl]

Still pouring here...looks like the East Coast of Oz from Rockhampton to Sydney will be in flood due to this storm.

Daryl

[Eric F]

We had lots of large branches dropping into our front yard all night. Some of them must be 100+Kg. You wouldn't want that landing on your head.

[NApalm]

Snapped frangipani branches around! Not good but nothing else lost. Maybe an A. purperea. Time to stake it up

[tropicbreeze]

Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng central pressure 998 hPa is situated about 13.0 degrees south 59.6 degrees east and travelling west north west at 13 kph. It's approximately 970 kms north north east of La Reunion. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in about 48 hours and into a severe tropical cyclone in about 72 hours. At that stage it's expected to be moving southwards east of the Madagascar coast.

It appears in my absence Tropical Cyclone Garry has dissipated. Another low is in the area about 23.6 degrees south 178.6 east. However conditions are against it and chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are low.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald continues to move down inland of the east coast of Australia causing heavy deluges. Between it and the intense ridge in the southern Tasman Sea strong moist winds are being channelled onshore. The ridge doesn't seem to want to budge, and ex-Oswald doesn't want to stop moving forward. And that's always the problem with these events. If the wind doesn't manage to break things the rain softens the ground so they get bowled over anyway.

But spare us a thought here in the north. While you're getting the rain down south we're copping the heat. Yesterday at my place the heat index got to 55 degrees (I didn't see if it got higher at another time in the day, no computer to download the data from my weather station)). No breeze and no rain. It's been like that for a while now since the monsoon trough followed ex-Oswald south. Normally heavy monsoonal rain would have kept the temps down, but this isn't a normal year.

[NApalm]

Yuck

[Mr Cycad]

It's been baking hot here too over the last few days Zig, but finally we got a thunderstorm today! The temperature drop was amazing! !Heaps of new leaves we flopping over everywhere. So humid also.. Bad time to be concreting too! I've only recorded 580mm for the month so far...

[Mr Cycad]

Just seeing all this weather down south now... crazy!!! Hope everyone is safe and sound.

[Daryl]

Still pouring here...hopefully it will end tonight! Looks like Sydney is just about to cop it...

Daryl

[Tropicgardener]

The weather fined up here on Saturday and the wind died down on Sunday, there is still flooding in the Boyne River but that is starting to decrease.........all up I had well over 1000mm of rain, probably closer to 1200mm in 3 days. Casualties include a large Sacred Bali Bamboo which crashed into the side fence, a young coconut that has been staked up, a couple of Alcantareas and my Pandanus dubius which needs to be staked up.

[Daryl]

Glad that is over now...we ended up with approx 450mm (18"), and Springbrook in the mountains here got 1450mm (58")...I'm sure Purlingbrook falls would be looking good right now!

Daryl

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Felleng central pressure 968 hPa is situated about 13.7 degrees south 55.9 degrees east and travelling west at 13 kph, situated approximately 800 kms north north east of La Reunion. It's expected to develop into a severe tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. It's also expected to shift to the south and move down the eastern Madagascar coast and west of La Reunion.

The low in the central Pacific has dissipated.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald has moved off the coast. There's dry air moving in from the west as a ridge moves over the continent. This is an article from the Sydney Morning Herald giving some of the rainfall figures.

Rainfall records swamped amid Oswald onslaught

Date January 29, 2013 - 5:45PM

As towns and cities along Australia's eastern seaboard cope with flooding in the wake of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald, rainfall figures from the Bureau of Meteorology underscore the scale of the deluge.

Among major population centres, Gladstone appears to have copped the heaviest falls. The coastal Queensland city registered 819.8 millimetres of rain in the four days to Sunday, not far shy of its annual average rainfall of 883 millimetres.

In fact, those four days exceeded the previous monthly record for the city of 768.7 millimetres, back in February 1911, according to Blair Trewin, a senior climatologist at the bureau.

Gladstone collected more rain over the four days than it did during the whole of 2011 or 2012.

"The most exceptional feature of this storm is the extent of the extremes along a very long distance of coast," Dr Trewin said.

Other notable falls included Bundaberg site of some of Queensland's worst flooding which had 484 millimetres over the same four days, most of which fell in just two days.

The Burnett catchment behind Bundaberg saw an average of 204 millimetres of rain in the 24 hours to 9am on Sunday, smashing the previous record average of 124 millimetres, Dr Trewin said.

Rockhampton also gathered 545.4 millimetres in the four-day period to Sunday, including one day of 349 millimetres.

That's the power of a tropical cyclone, said Aaron Coutts-Smith, NSW climate services manager, noting the storm had been unusually slow-moving.

The one-day rainfall totals marked all-time records for the current observation sites which date from 1939 in Rockhampton and 1957 in Gladstone, while Bundaberg's tally was a record for January, Dr Trewin said.

Impressive peak daily rainfalls at other major coastal centres included 144.8 millimetres at Townsville, 112 millimetres at Cairns, 159.2 millimetres at Mackay, 145 millimetres at Brisbane and 128 millimetres at Coolangatta. A total such as Brisbane's occurred about once every five years, Dr Trewin said.

The Gold Coast hinterland and the NSW border ranges had some of the other exceptional falls.

Upper Springbrook, for instance, had 744 millimetres in 24 hours, and 1453 millimetres in four days.

Other significant departures from the historical norms include falls in the Burnett catchment region. Gayndah, in its upper reaches, received a peak daily total of 282.8 millimetres, far in excess of the previous record of 185.4 millimetres.

NSW records

In NSW, Pine Ridge, near Tamworth, broke its January one-day rainfall record of 131 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9am on Tuesday.

Other notable falls included Wyee, near Lake Macquarie, which received 171.8 millimetres, its highest January tally in 113 years of records. Grafton's Olympic site also notched its highest January rainfall - 131 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday.

Old Koreelah, inland from Byron Bay, collected 205 millimetres in its rain gauge in the 24 hours to 9am Monday - the highest daily rainfall measured in a century of records.

Initial numbers point to Crystal Creek on the mid north coast's Bellinger River as recording the state's highest rainfall total of 288 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9am on Tuesday.

Sydney's Observatory Hill recorded 95 millimetres for the period, the highest level since last March's severe rainstorms. In the Sydney region, the north shore's French's Forest and Castle Cove both had 161 millimetres land in their rain gauges.

The Upper Rous River had the state's heaviest falls from the overall storm, with 944 millimetres falling in the border zone site near Queensland in the past three days and 1027mm in the January 26-29 period.

Edited January 29, 2013 by tropicbreeze

[tropicbreeze]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Felleng central pressure 950 hPa is situated about 15.1 degrees south 53.5 degrees east and travelling south south west at 13 kph, situated approximately 670 kms north north west of La Reunion. It's expected to begin to weaken after about 72 hours. It's moving southwards down between the west coast of La Reunion and east coast of Madagascar. La Reunion has been placed on a cyclone pre-alert

A low is expected to develop in the Coral Sea in the next few days. However it's most likely to move to the east away from the Australian mainland.

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Felleng central pressure 965 hPa is situated about 19.3 degrees south 51.1 degrees east and travelling south at 19 kph, situated approximately 475 kms west north west of La Reunion. Deep convection is decreasing causing a weakening. It's moving southwards between La Reunion and Madagascar and is expected to swing to the south east as it approaches the mid latitudes.

The low, 1002 hPa, in the Coral Sea is situated about 1200 kms east of Cairns. It's still expected to move eastwards away from the Australian mainland.

[tropicbreeze]

Strong Tropical Storm Felleng central pressure 975 hPa is near 25.9 degrees south 51.2 degrees east and travelling south at 19 kph, situated approximately 665 kms south west of La Reunion. It's experiencing moderate to high vertical wind shear. By 36 hours it will be in the baroclinic zone and going through extratropical transition.

[tropicbreeze]

Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng central pressure 970 hPa is near 30.8 degrees south 52.4 degrees east and travelling south at 24 kph, situated approximately 1090 kms south south west of La Reunion.

For those who thought it was a bit warm in Australia last month:
www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/heat-and-rain-smash-records/story-fndo45r1-1226567391696

Australia had its hottest January on record in 2013
by: Brian Williams
From: The Courier-Mail February 03, 2013
1:00AM

AUSTRALIA had its hottest month on record in January. The average mean temperature of 29.68C and the average mean maximum temperature of 36.92C were the hottest in 81 years, passing previous records set in January 1932.

Queensland had 30.75C, its hottest mean temperature on record. The Northern Territory also clocked up a record with 31.93C.

Weather bureau figures show the January heatwave was exceptional in extent and duration. The national average maximum on January 7 was the highest on record.

Birdsville had 31 days in succession above 40C, the most it has ever recorded.

The highest temperature recorded in the heatwave was at Moomba in South Australia with 49.6C on January 12.

After the heat came the rain. Upper Springbrook, in the Gold Coast hinterland, had 1496mm in eight days and Boolaroo Tops, southwest of Gladstone, 1426mm.

Gladstone had 820mm of rain in four days, which exceeded its previous monthly record and was more than the annual rainfall recorded in 2011 or 2012.

The Burnett catchment had 204mm on January 27, beating the previous record by 80mm. One-day records were set for the Burrum, Mary, Logan-Albert and Kolan catchments.

It comes as a review of rainfall data at 8000 world weather stations finds that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing across the globe and is linked to warming.

Adelaide University environmental and mining engineer Seth Westra found a 7 per cent increase in rainfall for every 1C increase in global atmospheric temperature.

"This could mean very substantial increases in rainfall intensity as a result of climate change," Dr Westra said.

[tropicbreeze]

Currently Tropical Cyclone Gino, central pressure 960 hPa, is in the central Indian Ocean area, near 19.1 degrees south 79.6 degrees east, moving south south east at 15 kph and situated about 2490 kms east of La Reunion. Athough expected to strengthen slightly over the next 12 hours, it's expected to become an extratropical low by 72 hours.

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Gino, central pressure 960 hPa, is now near 22.9 degrees south 80.3 degrees east, moving south south east at 22 kph and situated about 2525 kms east of La Reunion. It's expected to have completed extratropical transition in the period from 36 to 48 hours.

[tropicbreeze]

Severe Tropical Storm Gino, central pressure 977 hPa, is now near 26.0 degrees south 83.1 degrees east, moving south east at 26 kph and situated about 2820 kms east south east of La Reunion. It's expected to have completed extratropical transition in the period from 12 to 24 hours. The mets office in La Reunion expects it to move as far east as around Lat 88 east (just outside the Australian Zone) by Saturday afternoon and then recurve back near to Lat 80 by Tuesday. An unusual move for a low that far south.

[tropicbreeze]

Extratropical Depression Ex-Gino (now that's quite a title for a has-been), 990 hPa, is near 26.6 degrees south 85.5 degrees east. It's located about 3095 kms east south east of La Reunion and moving east south east at 20 kph. Tonight it's expected to begin recurving back to the west.

A low pressure system is developing near 21.2 degrees south 39.8 degrees east, about 790 kms west south west of Antananarivo. The system is moving northwards into weaker vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Possibility of it developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low.

[tropicbreeze]

A low pressure system is now near 16.4 degrees south 38.4 degrees east, about 950 kms north north west of Antananarivo. The low level centre of circulation has developed over Mozambique but is moving towards the open sea. Possibility of it developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is medium.

A monsoon trough has developed over the Arafura Sea just to the north of Australia. It's expected to move south during the next few days and be over the Top End of the Northern Territory. A low is expected to develop off the coast during that period.

[tropicbreeze]

The low level centre of circulation of the low pressure system near Mozambique is now near 19.4 degrees south 40.0 degrees east, about 730 kms west of Antananarivo and moving southwards at around 11 kph. Possibility of it developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is high.

A monsoon trough is situated over the Arafura Sea just to the north of Australia. It's expected to move south over the Top End of the Northern Territory by Thursday. A low has developed in the trough line. It is expected to move westwards and develop slowly over the next few days.

[tropicbreeze]

The tropical low near Mozambique, central pressure 996 hPa, is now near 20.5 degrees south 40.9 degrees east, about 620 kms west of Antananarivo and moving southwards at around 11 kph. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by Thursday and cross the southern part of Madagascar on Friday.

The low in the Arafura Sea is now near 8 degrees south 136 degrees east. Central pressure 1003 hPa. It's still expected to move south westwards into the Timor Sea over the next few days.

[tropicbreeze]

The tropical low near Mozambique, Severe Tropical Storm Haruna, central pressure 976 hPa, is now near 21.7 degrees south 41.0 degrees east, about 715 kms west south west of Antananarivo and moving southwards at around 6 kph. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tonight and impact the southern part of Madagascar over Friday and Saturday.

The low in the Arafura Sea is now near 10 degrees south 133 degrees east. Central pressure 1004 hPa. It's still expected to move south westwards into the Timor Sea over the next few days. It may develop into a tropical cyclone Saturday or Sunday. It's expected to impact the Pilbara coast next week as a severe tropical cyclone.

A weak low pressure system is near 14 degrees south 106 degrees east, about 400 kms south of Christmas Island. It's expected to move west and develop into a tropical cyclone Saturday.

A low pressure system off the south Queensland coast is not likely to develop into a tropical cyclone. However it's expected to remain in that position for some days. This will likely bring strong winds and heavy rain.

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Haruna, central pressure 965 hPa, is now near 22.4 degrees south 41.5 degrees east, about 740 kms west south west of Antananarivo and moving east south east at around 4 kph. Steering has been weak and the cyclone has been moving erratically. It's expected to make landfall and move across southern Madagascar Friday/Saturday.

The low in the Arafura/Timor Sea area is now near 11 degrees south 129 degrees east. Central pressure 1002 hPa. It's still expected to continue moving south westwards over the next few days. It may develop into a tropical cyclone late Saturday or Sunday. It's expected to impact the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast next week as a severe tropical cyclone.

A weak low pressure system is near 13 degrees south 104 degrees east, about 460 kms south of Christmas Island. It's expected to move west and develop into a tropical cyclone Saturday or Sunday. The track should take it south of Cocos Island but still cause winds and heavy rain.

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Haruna, central pressure 970 hPa, is now near 22.5 degrees south 43.5 degrees east, about 530 kms south west of Antananarivo and moving south east at around 11 kph. It's now moving over land across southern Madagascar.

The low in the Timor Sea is near 13.5 degrees south 121.0 degrees east. Central pressure 1003 hPa, about 515 kms north north west of Broome, moving west south west at 7 kph. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday and impact the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast next week as a severe tropical cyclone.

A weak low pressure system is near 14 degrees south 101 degrees east, about 500 kms east south east of Cocos Island. It's expected to move west and develop into a tropical cyclone Sunday or Monday. The track should take it south of Cocos Island but still bring winds and heavy rain.

[tropicbreeze]

Ex-Haruna, central pressure 995 hPa, is near 24.7 degrees south 45.9 degrees east and over land, about 590 kms south of Antananarivo and moving south east at around 20 kph.

The low off the WA coast is near 15.2 degrees south 119.3 degrees east. Central pressure 998 hPa, about 440 kms north west of Broome, moving south west at 12 kph. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday and impact the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast on Tuesday or Wednesday as a severe tropical cyclone. A cyclone watch has been issued from Cape Leveque to Dampier.

A weak low pressure system is near 13 degrees south 100 degrees east, about 300 kms east south east of Cocos Island. It's moving west and expected to develop into a tropical cyclone Monday or Tuesday. The track should take it south of Cocos Island but still bring winds and heavy rain.

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Depression Ex-Haruna, central pressure 995 hPa, is near 26.3 degrees south 52.3 degrees east, about 635 kms south south west of La Reunion and moving east at 24 kph.

The low off the WA coast has been named Tropical Cyclone Rusty. It's near 17.2 degrees south 118.2 degrees east. Central pressure 988 hPa, about 350 kms north of Port Hedland, moving south at 8 kph. It's expected to impact the coast on Tuesday or Wednesday as a severe tropical cyclone. A cyclone warning has been issued for Wallal to Whim Creek. A cyclone watch is current from Broome to Wallal and Whim Creek to Mardie also inland to Marble Bar.

A low is near 12 degrees south 99 degrees east, about 220 kms east east of Cocos Islands. It's moving west and expected to develop into a tropical cyclone Monday or Tuesday, after it has passed the Islands. Heavy rain and thunderstorms with squalls and near gale force winds are expected on the Cocos Islands until Tuesday.

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Rusty Cat 2 is near 17.7 degrees south 119.0 degrees east. Central pressure 970 hPa, about 295 kms north of Port Hedland, and near stationary. There's a balance between the monsoonal and continental flows which means Rusty is drifting without steering. This makes it difficult to estimate time and location of impact with the coast. A cyclone warning is current for the coast from Cape Leveque to Mardie and a cyclone watch is current for the adjacent inland areas to Nullagine.

A low is near 13.2 degrees south 98.1 degrees east, about 222 kms east of Cocos Islands. It's moving south south east at 7 kph and expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours.

[tropicbreeze]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Wallal and Whim Creek are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 2:50 pm WST on Tuesday 26 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream. A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer.

At 2:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 3 was estimated to be 135 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 290 kilometres northeast of Karratha and moving south southwest at 5 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to move slowly towards the coast. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the centre crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the centre. Wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour have already been experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse overnight and during Wednesday.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Pardoo, need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Bidyadanga and Wallal and between Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and extending to adjacent inland areas including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
NOTE: The State Emergency Service advises that Marble Bar is expected to go to Yellow Alert at 1800 WST.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.2 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 957 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 26 February.

A low is near 14.9 degrees south 98.2 degrees east, about 350 kms south east of Cocos Islands. It's moving south south east, away from the islands and expected to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight.

[tropicbreeze]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Wallal and Whim Creek are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued at 6:01 pm WST on Wednesday 27 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Whim Creek including Port Hedland and inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Newman and Telfer.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent parts of the Interior and Gascoyne district including Three Rivers.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 3 was estimated to be crossing the coast 110 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland and 130 kilometres north of Marble Bar and was moving south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty crossed the coast at 5pm at Pardoo, 110 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland and will now move inland and gradually weaken. Wind gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are expected near the cyclone centre this evening.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour should extend inland tonight reaching Marble Bar early on Thursday. Gales should extend further inland to Nullagine and possibly Newman and Telfer during Thursday before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity overnight Thursday.

Winds are expected to gradually ease in Port Hedland this evening.

Widespread very heavy rainfall overnight and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

People on the coast between De Grey and Wallal are warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE tonight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and South Hedland should remain in shelter. People in the adjacent inland areas including Marble Bar should go to shelter immediately
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Pardoo, extending inland to Nullagine need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Sandfire and Wallal and between Nullagine and Newman, need to prepare for cyclonic weather.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.0 degrees South 119.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 952 hectoPascals

A low is near 15.4 degrees south 98.3 degrees east.. It's moving east, away from the Cocos Islands and is now not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's expected to dissipate within the next 24 to 48 hours. However, there is an outside chance it may move into a more favourable environment for development in 2 to 3 days.

[tropicbreeze]

Ex Tropical Cyclone Rusty is well inland and has weakened below cyclone strength.

The low situated about 15.1 degrees south 99.7 degrees east is still showing some signs of 'life', however moderate vertical wind shear and sea temperatures marginal for development are preventing re-intensification.

A sub-tropical low is situated about 180 kms south east of Cairns. It's moving north north west at about 8 kph and not expected to undergo much development over the next few days.

[tropicbreeze]

A low is situated in the Indian Ocean about 14.2 degrees south 101.4 degrees east and moving eastwards. It's in an area of moderate to high vertical wind shear and low sea surface temperatures and development during the next few days is unlikely.

A low is situated about 120 kms north east of Cairns near 16.2 degrees south 146.6 degrees east and moving north north east at about 6 kph. It is in an unfavourable environment for development with moderate to strong vertical wind shear.

A low pressure system is expected to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria over the weekend.

[tropicbreeze]

A low is situated in the Indian Ocean about 14.1 degrees south 103.7 degrees east and moving eastwards. It's still in an area of moderate to high vertical wind shear and low sea surface temperatures and development during the next few days remains unlikely.

The low in the Coral Sea previously near 16.2 degrees south 146.6 degrees east has dissipated. A low is expected to develop in the monsoon trough line early next week as the trough moves south from the northern Coral Sea.

A low pressure system is still expected to form in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

[tropicbreeze]

A low is situated in the Indian Ocean about 15 degrees south 108 degrees east and moving slowly eastwards. Development during the next few days remains unlikely.

In the Coral Sea a low is expected to develop in the monsoon trough line early in the week. It's likely to develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week and move eastwards away from the Australian coastline.

A low pressure system is still expected to form in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, however it's now not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

[tropicbreeze]

A low is situated in the Indian Ocean about 14 degrees south 112 degrees east and moving slowly eastwards. The low level centre of circulation is expected to dissipate overnight.

In the Coral Sea a low is expected to develop in the monsoon trough line Tuesday or Wednesday. It's likely to develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week and move eastwards away from the Australian coastline. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) has moved into the Pacific and this will heighten the chances of a cyclone in that area.

The low pressure system expected to form in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria is now not considered likely and the monsoon trough is expected to weaken in that area.

[tropicbreeze]

The Coral Sea low is near 18.5 degrees south 150.5 degrees east and moving north eastwards. It's visible on weather radar, situated about 525 kms south east of Cairns. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone late Thursday or Friday and move south eastwards. Moderate vertical wind shear is currently slowing development.

[tropicbreeze]

The Coral Sea low is near 17.6 degrees south 153.8 degrees east and moving north eastwards. It's situated about 850 kms east south east of Cairns. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday and move east to south eastwards. It's still in an area of moderate vertical wind shear with strong vertical wind shear to its north and south.

[tropicbreeze]

The Coral Sea low is near 16.1 degrees south 155.3 degrees east and moving east north east at about 13 kph. Central pressure is 996 hPa and it's situated about 1000 kms east of Cairns. It's expected to continue developing and reach tropical cyclone intensity within the next 12 hours. It's still in an area of moderate vertical wind shear with strong vertical wind shear to its north and south.

A low is located in the Indian Ocean near 14.1 degrees south 75.3 degrees east, about 815 kms south south east of Diego Garcia. The low level centre of circulation is organising slowly, with moderate vertical wind shear.