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tropicbreeze

Sth Hemisphere Cyclone season 2012-13

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tropicbreeze

First cyclone of the season has made it's appearance in the western Indian Ocean, TC Anais. Currently it's moving slowly south west towards Madagascar with sustained winds (1 minute average) of 185kph (100 kts) and gusts to 230kph (125 kts).

The system is moving into an area of cooler water and into increased vertical wind shear causing a weakening. Within 4 days it's expected to begin swinging more southwards bringing it between La Reunion and Madagascar and weakening to a tropical low.

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tropicbreeze

The cyclone season officially starts 1st November, re the below article, better late than never I guess.

www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-26/new-radar-fill-cyclone-monitoring-gap-northern-territory/4336172?section=nt

Radar fills gap in tracking northern cyclones

By Emma Masters

Posted 1 hour 28 minutes ago

Radar fills gap in cyclone tracking efforts

The weather bureau says a gap in the tracking system was evident when Cyclone Monica hit the Territory coast west of Maningrida in 2006.

The weather bureau says a radar installation being built in Arnhem Land will fill an important gap in the monitoring of cyclones in northern Australia.

The radar facility is under construction at Warruwi on Goulburn Island, about 300 kilometres north-east of Darwin, and is expected to be operating by January.

Bureau regional director Andrew Tupper says it will improve cyclone coverage and predictions.

"We have known for some time there is a little bit of a gap in our radar cyclone monirtoring," he said.

"That was really evident when Cyclone Monica hit the coast west of Maningrida in 2006.

"We were fortunate in obtaining federal funding to build a radar at Warruwi for the purpose of filling that gap and giving us some really nice radar coverage for the north.

"As far as the Top End coast is concerned, the coverage is going to be a heap better."

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tropicbreeze

A low in the southern Indian Ocean is showing signs of developing. Currently situated about 5 degrees west of the Australian western region, and about 5 degrees south of the equator. The chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours are considered medium.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the southern Indian Ocean has now dissipated and there's currently no other developing lows in the southern hemisphere.

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tropicbreeze

A low pressure system has been developing around mid southern Indian Ocean. At this stage chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are considered medium. It's position is around 10.9 degrees south and 70.2 degrees east. Movement currently is towards the south west.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the Indian ocean has dissipated and isn't expected to redevelop in the near future.

A low has been developing in the Pacific Ocean and is situated 9.5 degrees south, 168.9 degrees east, just north east of Vanuatu. The system is expected to move southwards over the next couple of days with a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

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tropicbreeze

The low to the north east of Vanuatu is developing a better defined centre and moving south south east. Chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are rated from moderate to high.

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tropicbreeze

The low that was near Vanuatu has gone through ETT and is now moving off to the south east. The chances of it developing now are very low.

A low in the mid Indian Ocean has been developing at approximately 11.9 degrees south, 77.2 degrees east. This low has a moderate possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the Indian Ocean has intensified and been named Tropical Cyclone Boldwin, central pressure 987 hPa. Currently situated about 14.3 degrees south, 75.0 degrees east, 2160 kms east north east of La Reunion. Movement is south west at about 9 kph. It's expected to move into an area of higher wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures and weaken to a tropical depression in 72 hours.

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tropicbreeze

TC Boldwin is now Ex TC Boldwin with a central pressure of 1003 hPa. It's currently situated about 15.3 degrees south, 73.3 degrees east, 1955 kms east north east of La Reunion and tracking south west at 9 kph.

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tropicbreeze

There is an area of convection around 5.2 degrees south, 89.5 degrees east, about 1100 kms north west of the Cocos Islands. It's under moderate to high vertical wind shear and possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone is considered low. The area is only just outside the Australian region but so far this season all of the lows that have developed in the central southern Indian Ocean have drifted westwards.

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tropicbreeze

The mid Indian Ocean low is now about 8.2 degrees south, 84.7 degrees east. Although the system is over very warm waters favourable for intensification, it is also currently subject to high vertical wind shear. Chances of development over the next 48 hours are considered low. After that time it is expected to begin intensification and to develop into a tropical cyclone.

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tropicbreeze

The low in the mid Indian Ocean is now situated about 12.9 degrees south, 78.2 degrees east, approx 2550 kms east north east of La Reunion, and moving south south west at 17 KPH. Expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within 72 hours.

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The low in the Indian Ocean is now Tropical Cyclone Claudia with a central pressure of 968hPa. Currently situated about 14.2 degrees south 75.1 degrees east, 2175 kms east north east of La Reunion, and moving west at 4 KPH. It is expected to turn to the south and begin to dissipate within 72 hours.

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TC Claudia is currently situated about degrees 19.3 degrees south 72.9 degrees east and moving south south west at 15 kph. It's approximately 1790 kms east of La Reunion and expected to start extratropical transition in 48 hours.

There are 2 low systems in the Pacific Ocean. One located about 17.9 degrees South 159.5 degrees West, about 800 kms West South West of Bora Bora. The chances of this system of developing into a tropical cyclone remains low.

Another system is currently about 15.0 degrees South 178.2 degrees West, about 540 kms north east of Nadi. Chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours are moderate but within the next 48 to 72 hours the chances are high, at which stage it's likely to be just north of Samoa.

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tropicbreeze

TC Claudia is currently situated about 22.5 degrees south 73.0 degrees east and moving southwards at 26 kph. Central pressure is 992 hPa.

The low near to Samoa has been named TC Evan and is situated about 14.2 degrees South 174.5 degrees West. It's moving east northeast at about 10 knots. Steering is fairly weak at present however it's expected to strengthen in the next couple of days and take TC Evan to the south west.

The low pressure further east is now about 19.5 degrees South 158.0 degrees West. Possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone remains low.

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tropicbreeze

Media Release from Fiji Meteorological Service

4pm Thursday 13th December 2012

Tropical Cyclone Evan [985 hPa] Category (CAT) 2 centre was located near 14.0 South latitude and 172.5 West longitude or about 40 km southeast of Apia, Samoa, or 910 km east-northeast of Lakeba, Fiji, at 2pm today. It is still moving towards the east at 12 km/hr, but anticipated to re-curve towards the west from later tonight. The cyclone is intensifying and expected to attain Cat 3, hurricane force, in the next 24 hours.

At this stage, and on its projected track as well as intensity trend, TC Evan should move across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters by Sunday 16th December, as a CAT 3 severe tropical cyclone.

If this happens, damaging heavy easterly waves/swells will precede the cyclone. At this time, sustained winds over Fiji are anticipated to be around or above 64 knots. Associated momentary gusts will be a lot higher.

All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

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tropicbreeze

MEDIA RELEASE FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

4pm Friday 14th December 2012

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN”

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan [965 hPa] Category (CAT) 3 centre was located near 13.0 South latitude and 171.9 West longitude or about 1020km east-northeast of Labasa or 935 km northeast of Lakeba, or 1180 km east-northeast of Suva, at 2pm today. It is currently turning towards the west at 5 km/hr. The cyclone is intensifying and expected to attain Cat 4 status in the next 12 to 24 hours. As it exists under very favourable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, there is a good probability of it attaining CAT 5.

At this stage, and on its projected track as well as intensity trend, TC Evan should move across the northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and arrive into the Fiji waters later on Sunday 16th December, as a CAT 4 or possibly CAT 5, severe tropical cyclone.

Damaging heavy easterly waves/swells will precede the cyclone, generated by the combined effect of TC Evan and an intense area of high pressure to the far south of Fiji. The resultant wave attack on our coastal communities, especially those facing the east and northeast, as well as those near the path of the cyclone, is expected to be severe. At this time, maximum sustained winds near the centre of the cyclone, as it moves into Fiji, are anticipated to be around or above 180 km/hr. Associated momentary gusts will be a lot higher, at the most, double these values. Rain will be frequent and heavy. Flooding including sea flooding of coastal areas is expected.

All communities in Fiji should be prepared now, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

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tropicbreeze

TC Evan is tracking west north west. Conditions are favourable for further intensification. The projected track takes it just to the north of the main Fijian Islands, but still close enough to be very damaging. After about 36 hours vertical wind shear will begin to increase and commence to erode the system. However it's still expected to be above Cat 3 intensity over the next 120 hours.

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MEDIA RELEASE FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

3pm Saturday 15th December 2012

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN”

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan [960 hPa] Category (CAT) 4 centre was located near 12.6 South latitude and 174.5 West longitude or about 790 km east-northeast of Labasa or 980 km northeast of Suva, at 1pm DST Saturday 15th December. It is now moving towards the west-southwest at 30 km/hr. The cyclone is still intensifying and may attain Cat 5 status in the next 24 hours to 48 hours. Close to the centre, maximum sustained winds are estimated around 90 to 100 knots (170 to 185 km/hr). Damaging Gales extend to about 185 km to the south of the cyclone centre.

On this projected track, TC Evan should move close to or over Wallis and Futuna from tonight till tomorrow morning and keep just to the north of Fiji throughout Sunday 16th December, still as a CAT 4 or possibly CAT 5. However, at this stage, it is anticipated to move over and along the Yasawa and Mamnuca groups by Tuesday.

Damaging heavy waves/swells, generated by the combined effect of TC Evan and an intense area of high pressure to the far south of Fiji, are still expected. The resultant wave attack on our coastal communities, especially in Northern Lau, Taveuni, Vanua Levu and nearby smaller islands, as well as northern Viti Levu and Yasawa and Mamnuca, is expected to be severe. At this time, maximum sustained winds near the centre of the cyclone, whilst just north of Fiji, are anticipated to be around or above 170 km/hr with momentary gusts over 230 km/hr. Rain will be frequent and heavy especially along and close to the track. Flooding including sea flooding of coastal areas is expected.

Though the projected track of TC Evan has now shifted just to the north of Fiji, all communities in Fiji should still be prepared, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

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MEDIA RELEASE FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

3pm Sunday 16th December 2012

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN”

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan [960 hPa] Category (CAT) 4 centre was located near 14.2 South latitude and 178.9 West longitude or about 315 km northeast of Labasa or 520 km north-northeast of Suva, at 2pm DST Sunday 16th December. It is moving towards the west-southwest at 25 km/hr. Close to the centre, maximum sustained winds are estimated around 90 knots (170 km/hr) and momentary gusts over 230 km/hr. Damaging gales extend from the centre to about 220 km in the southern semi-circle and 185 to 220 km in the other quadrants.

On this projected track, TC Evan centre should remain to the north of Fiji throughout Sunday. Early on Monday 17th, it is anticipated to move close to, or just north of the Yasawas. From Tuesday 18th, it should be located to the west-southwest of Nadi and heading towards the south, away from the country. The cyclone is expected to maintain its current intensity till Tuesday, when it is expected to start gradual weakening.

Damaging heavy waves/swells, generated by the combined effect of TC Evan and an intense area of high pressure to the far south of Fiji, are still expected. The resultant wave attack on our coastal communities, especially in Northern Lau, Taveuni, Vanua Levu and nearby smaller islands, as well as northern Viti Levu and Yasawa and Mamnuca, is expected to be severe. Rain will be frequent and heavy especially along and close to the track. Flooding including sea flooding of coastal areas is expected.

Though the projected track of TC Evan keeps the centre to the north and later west of Fiji, all communities in Fiji should still be prepared, heed warnings, and act responsibly, to avoid unnecessary loss of lives and/or property.

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fiji jim

you think that we don't know this?

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tropicbreeze

If you don't want to see it don't read it.

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tropicbreeze

MEDIA RELEASE FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

4pm Monday 17th December 2012

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE “EVAN”

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan [945 hPa] Category (CAT) 4 centre was located by radar near 17.5 South latitude and 177.2 East longitude or about 28 km northwest of Nadi at 4pm DST Monday 17th December. It is moving towards the southwest at 15 to 20 km/hr. Close to the centre, maximum sustained winds are estimated around 90 knots (170 km/hr) to 100 knots (185km/hr) and momentary gusts over 260 km/hr. Storm force winds extend to 90 km from the centre and damaging gales, out to 150 to 185 km.

On this projected track, TC Evan centre will keep just offshore of the west coast of Viti Levu before gradually turning south from early Tuesday. On radar, the eye of severe TC Evan appears as a ring that extends from the Yasawas to the west coast of Viti Levu. However, for tracking purposes, RSMC Nadi uses the centre of this ring as its reference point. Destructive hurricane force winds lie around, but immediately outside this ring. The cyclone is expected to move away from Fiji later on Tuesday.

Damaging heavy waves/swells. Frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Flooding, including sea flooding of coastal areas is expected.

All communities in Fiji are urged to heed warnings and act responsibly, to avoid loss of lives and property.

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tropicbreeze

TC Evan is now about 120 kilometres south of Nadi and moving south at about 15 kph. The top of the cyclone is beginning to warm and it's experiencing increasing vertical wind shear. That together with cooling sea surface temperatures is slowly weakening the system which is now Cat 3.

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TC Evan is now Cat 2 and some 500 kilometres south of Nadi. It is generally heading south and is expected to have dissipated as a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

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tropicbreeze

Evan has dissipated and is no longer a tropical cyclone. There are no other areas in the southern Pacific or Indian Oceans currently showing development.

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tropicbreeze

A low pressure system is expected to move into the eastern Coral Sea near the Solomons and begin development later in the week.

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The low pressure system near the Solomons is now located about 7.2 degrees South 164.4 degrees East. It's not moving much at this stage and is still disorganised. It's expected to develop significantly over the next few days.

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The low near the Solomons is now situated about 8.5 degrees South 163.9 degrees East. Conditions are becoming more favourable for development and chances of developing into a tropical cyclone Friday or Saturday are moderate. It's expected to move slowly to the south west.

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The low near the Solomons is now situated about 9.2 degrees South 163.7 degrees East. Conditions are still favourable for development and chances of developing into a tropical cyclone Saturday or Sunday remains moderate. It's expected to continue moving generally to the south west.

Another low is embedded in the monsoon trough to the north west of Western Australia, about 12.5 degrees South 115.5 degrees East. This low remains weak and is expected to move west south west. Possibility for development into a tropical cyclone is low for the next few days.

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Both systems have upped the anti. The low near the Solomons is now expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by tomorrow. It's expected to continue south west initially and then follow a more southerly track. That may bring it close to or over New Caledonia.

The low off the West Australian coast is now situated about 15.6 degrees South 111.7 degrees East. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Movement is expected towards the south south west initially and then southerly, tracking out from the coast.

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Two more low pressure systems are beginning to develop in the Indian Ocean. They are about 9.5 degrees South 68.0 degrees East and 5.7 degrees South 85.6 degrees East respectively. They are located along the monsoon trough which links them to the system off the West Australian coast.

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The low pressure near the Solomons is now Tropical Cyclone Freda Cat 1 and is situated about 11.8 degrees South 160.3 degrees East, some 140 kms south south east of Honiara. It's been tracking west south west but will recurve southwards tomorrow. It's expected to continue intensifying over the next 72 hours.

The system off the West Australian coast is situated about 16.1 degrees South 110.7 degrees East and tracking south west at about 13 kph. Winds are 65 kph, gusting to 95 kph. It's expected to become a tropical cyclone later today and if so will be named Mitchell.

The system that was previously situated around 5.7 degrees South 85.6 degrees East is now located about 7.5 degrees South 83.1 degrees East. Chances of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term remains low.

The system that was previously situated around 9.5 degrees South 68.0 degrees East is now located about 9.9 degrees South 66.1 degrees East. Chances of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term is medium.

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Tropical Cyclone Freda is now Cat 2 and is currently situated about 12.3 degrees South 159.8 degrees East. It's moving south west but is expected to turn south south east. The 72 hour projected track could take it over New Caledonia.

The system off the West Australian coast developed into Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Cat 1 today. It's still moving south south west and is expected to remain off the coast until it reaches cooler waters in 48 hours and begins to dissipate.

The system situated 7.5 degrees South 83.1 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term.

The system situated about 9.9 degrees South 66.1 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Freda is now Cat 3 and is near 12.7 degrees South 160.1 degrees East. Currently it's in a weak steering environment causing it to drift occasionally eastwards or westwards. However in 72 hours it's expected to make a hard swing to the east bringing it to New Caledonia. It's expected to intensify over the next 48 hours and then weaken under increasing vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Cat 1 currently near 19.8 degrees South 110.2 degrees East is moving southwards and weakening over cooler sea temperatures. It's expected to remain off the coast and dissipate in 24 hours.

The system situated 8.8 degrees South 82.2 degrees East (Indian Ocean) still remains with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term.

The system situated about 9.8 degrees South 64.2 degrees East (Indian Ocean) still remains with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Freda is now Cat 4 and is near 15.3 degrees South 160.9 degrees East, continuing to move southwards. It's expected to run into strong vertical wind shear soon and begin to weaken. The projected track takes it into New Caledonia, but possibly at Cat 1 strength.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is no longer, having weakened below tropical cyclone strength. It has tracked over cooler waters, run into stronger vertical wind shear plus dry continental air was drawn into the system. The low is continuing to move generally southwards.

The system situated 9.4 degrees South 85.2 degrees East (Indian Ocean) still remains with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. It's in an area of high vertical wind shear, however this is expected to ease in the next couple of days.

The system situated about 9.9 degrees South 60.6 degrees East (Indian Ocean) has been upgraded to a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. Currently it's under strong vertical wind shear but this is expected to ease in the next day allowing for strengthening of the system. It's situated about 1335 kms north north east of La Reunion and moving westwards at about 7 kph. Long term it's expected to turn southwards passing down the east side of Madagascar and close to the west side of La Reunion.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Freda Cat 4 is near 15.8 degrees South 161.1 degrees East, and moving south south east at about 11 kph. Intensification will continue for the next 12 hours and then increasing vertical wind shear will cause weakening. After 48 hours weakening of the system should accelerate. Reassessment of the long term projected track suggests it may pass close by the western side of New Caledonia.

The system situated 9.3 degrees South 85.8 degrees East (Indian Ocean) has been upgraded to a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. It's still in an area of moderate to strong vertical wind shear. Current position is about 1460 kms east of Diego Garcia.

The system situated about 11.1 degrees South 58.8 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. Tt continues to be under moderate to strong vertical wind shear which is easing allowing the system to strengthen. It's situated about 1140 kms north north east of La Reunion and moving west south west at about 11 kph. Long term project track still has it turning southwards and passing down the east side of Madagascar, close to the west side of La Reunion.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Freda Cat 4 is near 16.9 degrees South 161.4 degrees East, and moving south south east at about 11 kph and weakening. In 12 hours it's expected to be Cat 3. In 3 days it's expected to be Cat 1 as it passes west of New Caledonia.

The system situated 9.3 degrees South 85.8 degrees East (Indian Ocean) hasn't changed and remains with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. It's still in an area of moderate to strong vertical wind shear. Current position remains about 1460 kms east of Diego Garcia.

The system situated about 11.8 degrees South 57.8 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Tt continues to be under moderate to strong vertical wind shear which is still easing allowing the system to slowly strengthen. It's situated about 1040 kms north north east of La Reunion and moving west south west at about 11 kph. Long term project track has been relocated further east bringing it over La Reunion within the next 72 hours. La Reunion has gone into Cyclone Pre-alert.

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tropicbreeze

Tropical Cyclone Freda Cat 3 is near 18.5 degrees South 162.0 degrees East, and moving south south east at about 17 kph and weakening. By this evening it's expected to be Cat 2, and in 36 hours Cat 1 passing west of New Caledonia.

The system situated 10.3 degrees South 85.0 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term. It's in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. Current position is about 1410 kms east of Diego Garcia.

The system situated about 11.7 degrees South 56.2 degrees East (Indian Ocean) remains with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. It continues to be under moderate to strong vertical wind shear which is still easing allowing the system to slowly strengthen. Estimated central pressure is 994hPa. It's situated about 1025 kms north of La Reunion and moving westwards at about 13 kph. Long term project track has been relocated slightly west bringing it just west of La Reunion within the next 48 hours. La Reunion is in Cyclone Pre-alert.

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