Brownsville to Orlando?

[Ken Johnson]

This storm does not make anyone fell safe yet from Key West to Brownsville! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201296_model.html

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

Key West is safe, but the models all week have been split...the GFS, probably #2 of all the computer prognostications, has said for a week that this would form, and move roughly east to the "stream" east of Soth Carolina...the ECMWF, the leader of the group, trends to the west....the good news is that this system is a slow mover, and will cool the SST's since the temps conducive to dramatic strengthining are of shallow depth.

[Ken Johnson]

How about the model that takes it to Tampa and then back out to sea?

In any case the SE drought looks to be broken. Just takes one good storm.

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

How about the model that takes it to Tampa and then back out to sea?

In any case the SE drought looks to be broken. Just takes one good storm.

All things are possible, but the general trend is a more northern path, away from Tampa...but that area can still get a lot of rain, 5-10 inches...any place 100-150 miles from the center of circulation, given the east quadrant of the storm, will feel some effects....nevertheless, she aint going south.

Rusty