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Tyrone

Winter outlook for Australia

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Tyrone

The long range forecast for winter in the Great Southern Land.

It looks like my coconut is safe this winter, which is good as I can't protect it much any more as it's too big.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temps_ahead.shtml

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aussiearoids

Lets hope this damn incessant rain stops up here .

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philinsydney

An intense low (ECL)moved up from Gippsland and slammed us with winds gusting over 120 km/h on the coast near here.

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peachy

Today a brass monkey came to my door and asked direction to the nearest welder. Need I say more ?

Peachy

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tropicbreeze

And the brass monkeys are looking increasingly worried here. They're no longer keeping their hands over their ears, eyes and mouths. Their hands are elsewhere. :rolleyes:

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aussiearoids

Last time I was up in Darwin , needed aircon to get any sleep in June .

Though prob; pre-global warming

Edited by aussiearoids

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Tyrone

Just witnessed a tornado rip through a Perth northern suburb today. Was at a clients house about to leave and heard a bit of a loud explosion, then looked into the sky to see a lot of black debris circulating rather fast in the air about a km away. After a few seconds I realised it was laserlite sheeting metal sheets, bits of backyard sheds, tree limbs etc. I watched it for a bit in dismay and shock, then it crossed the street about 500m from me and instantly snapped all the trees down, with blue flashes from the powerlines shorting out. Was a bit paralysed by shock. Was wondering whether to hop in the car and run for it, or go inside and curl up in a ball in the toilet. When it started knocking over wheelie bins about 200m away I though it was time to run inside and prepare for a hit. My client and I both jammed into the toilet (a bit weird) and watched out the toilet window as debris and stuff got whisked into the air about 200-300m up. I was expecting to find my car in a tree but luckily it went around us and nearly took out a major shopping centre, but luckily just touched down once or twice in the carpark. Tornados and glass panels can't be good. We watched the funnel try and touch down again about 5-10min afterwards but it didn't quite do it, thankfully. Probably one of the scariest times of my life.

http://video.perthnow.com.au/2243051429/Tornado-hits-Perth

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philinsydney

You've had a unique experience, for sure. I wonder what it rated on the F scale?

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aussiearoids

F-n :rolleyes:

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Tyrone

http://www.perthnow....u-1226388792016

They are saying now that the scale of the destruction indicates wind speeds of 180kph, (equivalent to a Cat 4 cyclone) which sounds about right. Yesterday they were saying 125kph, but from what I saw it was much more than that. The trees that fell at the end of Coode St, didn't fall at the rate due to gravity, but were virtually snapped and smashed into the ground all at once in about half a second. It turns out that the part of the twister that I saw at the end of Coode St was at the beginning of it ramping up. Just about 200m westwards the destruction was sort of minimal. East of Coode St it went nuts and did more damage, lifting house roofs off in pieces and destroying sheds etc. At this point the debris flying into the air intensified and it appeared that it was coming closer, which it was. At that point I chickened out as the vortex had big pieces of tin in it and if any fell out they could have flown anywhere. Looking at the news footage we were about 250-300m from the path of it before it hit the Galleria shopping centre. They reckon about 100 properties received damage, some really serious.

I just wished I'd filmed it. Note to self for next time.

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JimStPete

Tyrone, that tornado in Perth was shown on the news over here! Definitely looked scary! I've seen tornados and waterspouts from a distance (a mile or two away) and I thought that was scary (they are fairly common here in Florida) but being up close and having your experience definitely sounds frightening! You'll remember that experience for the rest of your life!

Edited by JimStPete

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NApalm

I saw that tornado on the news. Crazy weather. I had a suspicion you may have had a story to tell about this! Good to see it's a safe one. I still reckon that footage from the US earlier this year of trucks being tossed around like toys was one of the most amazing things i've seen!

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Tyrone

The Perth Dianella tornado was only an F1 maybe a low F2 at times. Nothing like the F5's in the US. You guys get it tough in the US. I couldn't handle living in an area where tornados are commonplace and absolutely mind blowingly massive. Was watching those F5's in the US on Youtube. The stormchasers who film them are just CRAZY. But I take my hat off to them. Nature is just awesome. :) Kind of alluring but totally dangerous at the same time.

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Tyrone

Just been speaking to my client in the area and she was saying that some houses are just uninhabitable now. Also the wheelie bins just around the corner about 200m from her house have all magically disappeared. It was bin day. I ran inside when I saw the ones in her street just fall down about 200m up the road. The centre must have been just around the corner where I couldn't see it.

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peachy

Tyrone, those awful things terrify me. I still get nightmares about a waterspout I saw in the distance when I was sailing as a teenager. Like you I couldnt live anywhere that gets those huge horrors like they get in the USA. I would be dead from fright. Weatherwise, its very dry here but overcast and damnably cold. Lucky to get to 20 in the daytime and mid single digits at night. Had to buy some new ugg boots the other day, wore the old ones out finally, but they are essential this time of year as a life support device.

Peachy

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Tyrone

Having more crazy weather here. Had a ripper of a storm front come through yesterday powered by a tropical source of energy and it tore roofs of buildings and felled trees. An area the size of Victoria was effected. The Swan River flooded and Riverside Drive was under water. Was without power all of lastnight. Airport was shut for a few hours, so it was a quiet night. Some people are still without power and it may be a few days before they have it restored. My back yard is a mess with stuff everywhere. My Cuban Royal jettisoned it's two oldest leaves. It's only ever done that once before so it was a strong storm that hit.

Had another wild, but not so strong front come through in the last hour and tomorrow night another bunch of heavy damaging storms is forecast with hail. It won't calm down until Thursday.

It hasn't been cold though and my coconut is still growing strong. But in the wind I've never seen the base of it move around as much before.

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Tyrone

Tuesday night storms were not as wild as predicted. Since then we've had a cold pool of air move in and it's been cold, in the mid to high teens for most of the day. At the moment it's chucking it done outside. Looking forward to a couple of dry days with sun. It looks like we'll definitely get our average June rainfall this year.

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tropicbreeze

The tropics have been crazy this year. Lows well below normal and highs a bit below normal.

Cairns has been having a few 11's as minimums the last couple of days (long term average for June is 17.8). Maximums have been down in the low 20's a few times (long term average for June is 26.0).

We're edging up at the moment, Darwin 18.1 this morning. But there's been a few days around 14 (long term average for June is 19.9). Lowest maximum has been 27.2 (long term average for June is 30.6). (My place is inland so a few degrees lower and higher than Darwin.)

So not looking good for July which is normally the coldest month. We're only approaching mid June now (should have been the warmest half of the month?). And some bizarre people are rejoicing in it, saying there's not enough chilling winters in Darwin. They can go down south for that, and take this weather with them!

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peachy

Wow at last, Darwin and Cairns are sounding almost habitable. Hasnt been too bad here lately, up to 21 or 22 in the day and down to 8 or so at night. I can handle this climate very well. If only if it would rain some it could be paradise with tin rooves.

Peachy

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ariscott

So not looking good for July which is normally the coldest month. We're only approaching mid June now (should have been the warmest half of the month?). And some bizarre people are rejoicing in it, saying there's not enough chilling winters in Darwin. They can go down south for that, and take this weather with them!

Exactly what I think too, Zig. BTW, we had a few below 10 deg this month... Not looking forward to July!!!!! :unsure:

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peachy

Absolutely freezing here now. Supposed to be -1 tonight. It's down to 6 now so it could be even colder. Pyjamas under trackies, bedsox and dogs again tonight.

Peachy

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Tropicgardener

Stay warm Peach, not that cold here but certainly cool, my Sealing Wax Palm is trying to push out a new frond.....will see if it does that or just sulks instead!!

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Pedro 65

Shortest day of the year today, it was 21c and still and sunny..Temp of 11c tonight and 22c tomorrow..Certainly cant complain, this is stunning winter weather so far for the cool subtropical mountainous rainforest areas of Far Nth NSW.. :)

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Tyrone

A beautiful sunny day yesterday, but it only made 16C. A minimum of just below 2C last night and some sunny days in the high teens as we sit under a high. Pressure is 1032hPa now. The garden needs as much warm drying rays as possible.

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peachy

Today is the coldest day I remember since moving to Qld. The maximum temperature was a nippy 13.6 !!! At least its raining for a change, cant complain about that,.

Peachy

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Tyrone

That's cold Peachy. We haven't had a day that cold yet this winter.

It's felt very cold here though in the last few days. It somehow reached almost 21C today but that was under thick cloud cover and cold chilly NE winds believe it or not. My coconut hasn't budged in about a week. It could stop like that when protected so I'm not overly concerned yet.

Some warmish 20,21C days coming up so I'm hoping it will kick back into gear again.

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peachy

After a week of day and night time temps being virtually the same (about 14) next week has some nice warm days predicted in the low to mid 20s. The downside you ask ? Sub zero nights unfortunately. Hopefully they wont drop below minus 3, thats when the frost forms here and the damage gets done.

Peachy

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Walter John

I like the long range forecast for mid Winter to early Spring in my area of the world which is:

  • a drier than normal season
  • warmer days are more likely

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KrisKupsch

The next few days will be very cold Wal. They are forecasting frost on the Gold Coast flats. Fingers crossed my coconuts survive ! Last weekend i stayed at Perisher and it was -7, so any temps better than this will be welcome !

Edited by KrisKupsch

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Laisla87

I can't believe how cold it has been along the east coast..it will drop to 5 tonight in Brissie. Sydney has had maximums of 13 degrees, 4 below average.

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Daryl

It got down to 4C in my garden last night...damn I hate winter! (Although I have to admit the days are beautiful lately)

Daryl

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Eric F

6.6 in my yard two nights ago, fortunately a few degrees warmer last night and so far tonight. The seedlings have been spending their nights indoors.

Two fatalities so far this year, Beccariophoenix "windows" in 25cm pot decided it got too cold last week and is barely hanging on, and my dog used a Pritchardia thurstonii seedling as a chew toy today :( Clearly I should have distracted him with some Syagrus.

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Keith N Tampa (ex SoJax)

I was in Australia 12 months ago right now. It was appropriately cool in Sydney (16-18C) but I was surprised to find Townsville in the low 20's. It was beautiful weather (mostly) but I didn't realize it was that cool that far north. Even up in Ingham it was cool (and damp). In contrast, this year its stinkin' hot here in the Eastern 2/3 of the USA. My family lives near St Louis in the middle of the continent (in the middle of Tornado ally). It has been in the high 30's and low 40's there for a record number of days...and no rain. Its killing the local Agriculture community. They say you can watch the corn die in front of your eyes. In a week or so its supposed to cool off. Here in Jacksonville its hot too, but really the humidity is what'll really get ya. Our dry bulb temp has been about 36-38 but our "feels like temperature" has been in the high 40's because of the humidity remaining after several tropical rain events (1 meter of rain between May 1, and June 30). Blah. Its great weather for Sabal palms and my Aussie Livistonas but its pretty uncomfortable for us humans.

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tropicbreeze

This is going to be a winter long remembered. Although, Noonamah has come back up to about normal. This morning's minimum was 16.9C, strangely Darwin's was 16.8C, still below normal for them. Maximums temperatures are still normal for mid winter, 30C to 33C. Usually Darwin is a few degrees lower on the maximums and a few higher on the minimums. Late winter Noonamah's maximums range 35C to 40C with minimums closer to 20C. Only about a month to go for that, can't wait because it heralds the start of the build-up and the proximity of rain.

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Tyrone

So far we have been averaging around 21,22C for July, which is way above average, but the cloud has rolled back in and we are now back into the high teens again. The next couple of weeks are statistically the coldest for my area. All the nights this week will be single digit, with about 4 or 5 forecast to be 3C!!!! Not much rain forecast so it will be a dry July I think.

I did think that my coconut had stalled, (although it appeared OK) so yesterday I decided to put a bit of a plastic windbreak around it. I had made two growth marks on it. One for the spear to the first leaf, and then another for the first leaf to the second leaf. Every few days I would look at the spear to the first leaf mark and saw no growth. So yesterday I thought I'd help it out and gave it some attention with the windbreak and inspected all the leaves for scale (rubbed it all off) and gave it a little drink of seasol and powerfeed under it's plastic rain deflector. Then I took a look at the first leaf to second leaf mark and it had grown about 7cm. So I panicked for nothing. It's still growing and the plastic windbreak will help it a bit too. So hopefully the coconut will be here for another year at least.

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tropicbreeze

I just got back from a stint in Melbourne, the usual cold, wet, miserable Melbourne winter. Got back home to a minimum of 19 followed by a maximum of 35. It's nice to be home! But I was surprised by the number of palms I saw down there. A lot of Archontophoenix (probably cunninghamiana) up against the skyline. But the one at my parents place isn't doing so well, something seems to be eating into the trunk.

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brodklop

I like the long range forecast for mid Winter to early Spring in my area of the world which is:

  • a drier than normal season
  • warmer days are more likely

Well Wal, mid winter is here and it is wetter than normal. These forecasts are purely guesses. They can barely forecast 3 days out let alone 6 months or 30 years.

Good thing with the damp humid conditions is the minimums are high and the maximums are normal.

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Walter John

I like the long range forecast for mid Winter to early Spring in my area of the world which is:

  • a drier than normal season
  • warmer days are more likely

Well Wal, mid winter is here and it is wetter than normal. These forecasts are purely guesses. They can barely forecast 3 days out let alone 6 months or 30 years.

Good thing with the damp humid conditions is the minimums are high and the maximums are normal.

I was being hopeful I suppose Brod, let's see how we go for the next 4 weeks.

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Tyrone

I want winter to end. It's depressing.

We've been relatively dry for July and nights have just been cold without a break. Would love a 12C night with maybe 22C during the day for a few days. Gotta go to Kalbarri to get that this time of year.

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peachy

We are getting a bit everything as far as weather goes lately. Just over a week of days in the 23/24 range and nights from 15 to 19, with light steady rain periods. Then a sudden drop to 2 one night and now days of 20 and nights 5 to 6. July is usually the coldest month but it has been a lot warmer than June for a change.

Peachy

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