Crazy LA Weather

[NM_PALM_BOY]

Hey all,

I don't know about you guys, but I am sick of the hot weather here! 84F right now (noon) and climbing. It was 87F yesterday. All you So. Cal'ers. chime in! Global Warming?

Doug

[spockvr6]

In this case I think we can cross global warming off the list since the record high for LA on January 9th is 88F and set in 1923!

[osideterry]

I'm sick of the schizophrenic/bipolar weather. The humidity is 10% or 90%, the high is 80F and the low is 28F. My sinuses can't keep up. There are no normal days.

I've lived in SoCal 20 years as of this Spring. Maybe we average 10 inches of rain a year, but the reality is we get 20-25 inches every El Nino (every 5-7 years) and the other years we are lucky to get 5 inches. Voila, the average is 10.

I can't believe these words are coming off my fingers, but I can't wait for June Gloom.

[happ]

(NM_PALM_BOY @ Jan. 09 2007,14:55)

QUOTE

Hey all,

I don't know about you guys, but I am sick of the hot weather here! 84F right now (noon) and climbing. It was 87F yesterday. All you So. Cal'ers. chime in! Global Warming?

Doug

SoCal's "global warming" is the non-stop pattern we are stuck in this winter.  Resembles 'LA NINA' conditions on the West Coast & EL NINO on the Eastern Seaboard.   ???  Wet & cold in PacNW/RockyMts/Great Plains is consistent with an ENSO-cool episode.  Drought conditions in SoCal/Arizona.

Osideterry mentioned 2007 being a schizophrenic winter.  Warm/moist in Florida & quite mild over the NorthEast = el nino  

Lower level winds of descending air under high pressure [ie sunshine] heat up quickly down to the surface.  Elevations exceeding 8000-14,000 ft [san Bernardino/San GabrielMts] funnel the wind down into the valleys and out over the basin/coastal plain. "santa ana winds"  

All the heat will quickly vanish tomorrow and downright cold by Friday  

[NM_PALM_BOY]

Larry,

Not to dispute your analysis, but global warming is NOT about the warming of the Earth in every section of the globe. It is about a period of extreme regional fluctuations in temperature and a GENERAL warming of the Earth.  

As per my post in the "Discussing Palm Trees Worldwide" section of this forum, Albuquerque has gone through an unprecedented 15 years of record warmth with 5 of the warmest years on record occurring during this time. In the last two weeks...an all time record 40" of snow with a record cold snap.

LA has had near record warmth with periods of normal to BELOW normal cold in tha last few weeks.

If you have been to Kilimanjaro lately and have seen pictures taken over the last 80 years, you could see first had what we are discussing...and this is happening worldwide.

Doug

[spockvr6]

(NM_PALM_BOY @ Jan. 10 2007,00:22)

QUOTE

Larry,

Not to dispute your analysis, but global warming is NOT about the warming of the Earth in every section of the globe. It is about a period of extreme regional fluctuations in temperature and a GENERAL warming of the Earth.  

As per my post in the "Discussing Palm Trees Worldwide" section of this forum, Albuquerque has gone through an unprecedented 15 years of record warmth with 5 of the warmest years on record occurring during this time. In the last two weeks...an all time record 40" of snow with a record cold snap.

LA has had near record warmth with periods of normal to BELOW normal cold in tha last few weeks.

If you have been to Kilimanjaro lately and have seen pictures taken over the last 80 years, you could see first had what we are discussing...and this is happening worldwide.

Doug

Doug-

I was trying to be humorous  

There are so many posts that say "its a record high today....must be global warming!" that I tried to make light of the fact that records were set 50-75-100 years ago too  Global warming is obviously not a simple subject (its obvious that no one fully understands it) and as such it is much like, as Sammy Kershaw says, like discussing "politics, religion, and her".  LOL.

[palmblues]

(NM_PALM_BOY @ Jan. 10 2007,00:22)

QUOTE

Larry,

Not to dispute your analysis, but global warming is NOT about the warming of the Earth in every section of the globe. It is about a period of extreme regional fluctuations in temperature and a GENERAL warming of the Earth.  

As per my post in the "Discussing Palm Trees Worldwide" section of this forum, Albuquerque has gone through an unprecedented 15 years of record warmth with 5 of the warmest years on record occurring during this time. In the last two weeks...an all time record 40" of snow with a record cold snap.

LA has had near record warmth with periods of normal to BELOW normal cold in tha last few weeks.

If you have been to Kilimanjaro lately and have seen pictures taken over the last 80 years, you could see first had what we are discussing...and this is happening worldwide.

Doug

Doug,

 i think you have the right take on what 'global warming' is ... its not the earth warming up nicely so we  can all grow coconuts ... its the atmosphere warming in places it should not, its the oceans (which work with the atmosphere) warming where they should not ... all causing EXTREMES of the weather, not nicey nicey beach weather  ... and unfortunately 'global warming' is like the winter solstice ... the shortest day of the year is Dec 21 but the real cold doesn't kick in until jan & feb & beyond ... what is happening to the atmosphere now will slowly kick in over the next 20 years ...

 

 Larry, you are right also about daily warming records sometimes being 50-100 years old but not all are ...

   'global warming' is a misnomer, a very poor term to label what really is happening ...

[NM_PALM_BOY]

as Sammy Kershaw says, like discussing "politics, religion, and her".

Larry,

Do you believe in Jesus? Did you vote for George Bush? LOL

I agree...it is a sensitive subject. On that note it has been shown in various disciplines (biology, geology, chemistry AND climatology) that the Earth has gone through extreme climate fluctuations MANY times in the past for no obvious reason. The lesson: it is definitely possible that this is one of those times.

Doug

PS: High in LA yesterday 84F (record)...predicted high for Friday 53F, low 37F ???

[John Case]

Go ahead and send some of that excessive heat our way....we're freezing

[spockvr6]

(NM_PALM_BOY @ Jan. 10 2007,12:01)

QUOTE

On that note it has been shown in various disciplines (biology, geology, chemistry AND climatology) that the Earth has gone through extreme climate fluctuations MANY times in the past for no obvious reason. The lesson: it is definitely possible that this is one of those times.

Doug

And in the end....well probably never know.

Could the current fluctuation be totally man "made"?  Is it merely Ma Nature doing her thing?  Is it some combination of the two?  Maybe Ma Nature really wants to be in a cooling cycle now, and man is trying to send it the other way?  Maybe the opposite?      

The same "experts" who tout one thing now can do a complete roundabout down the road as they learn more.  There is nothing malicious in this (nor is there shame), its just how things go.  As a famous economist once said...."When the facts change, I change my mind."

In the end, since no one really knows this is likely what creates all the "interesting" conversation.......since the conversation revolves around what are largely opinions, supported in one way or the other by "facts".  

It could be much like a police investigation wherein the suspect(s) are already identified shortly after the crime and efforts are concentrated on finding evidence supporting them being the culprits.....while there may be someone/something else that becomes very obvious (down the road) as being the true "perpetrator".

[spockvr6]

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 10 2007,12:10)

QUOTE

In the end, since no one really knows this is likely what creates all the "interesting" conversation.......since the conversation revolves around what are largely opinions, supported in one way or the other by "facts".  

Example---

How many "spirited" conversations arise over whether 1+1=2?  

[spockvr6]

(NM_PALM_BOY @ Jan. 10 2007,12:01)

QUOTE

as Sammy Kershaw says, like discussing "politics, religion, and her".

Larry,

Do you believe in Jesus? Did you vote for George Bush? LOL

It is funny how certain topics fall down party lines isnt it?

This has always amused me as it seems so improbable that it would happen naturally (i.e. it is contrived).

I wont touch the religion comment though.....that can create more forum heat than all the other hot topics we can think of combined.....

[NM_PALM_BOY]

Larry,

I hope you know I was kidding about the religion/politics thing. It was just an example.

Both sensitive topics..since you mentioned taboo topics and all

Doug

[steve 9atx]

Doug

Speaking of religion and politics, I, for one, believe in the sun.  I also believe in mathematics.  I know that predicting the behavior of the earth's atmosphere is what a matematician might call an "indeterminate" problem; that is, there are so many millions of millions of variables that a supercomputer performing 24 hour iterative calculations couldn't begin to accurately predict tomorrow's weather for my neighborhood, much less next week's!

This makes me wonder; am I the only person in the world who has heard that geologists interpolating from the entirety of fossil history and ice records to demonstrate that the coldest period in earth's history had 10x the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 than today?  (remember your Boyles Law?)

Am I a fool to believe the SIMPLE-MINDED CAUSE/EFFECT relationship betweeen atmospheric ppm of CO2 (parts per... you know a million is a little smaller in America) and surface temperature?

Am I the only dumbass out there that can see a virtual 1:1 correlation between terrestrial temps and solar output for the last 50 years?  Increased solar output accelerates the H2O cycle and makes H2O the REAL greenhouse gas as water vapor is much more immediately and demonstrably resonsible for rain/storm events and increased surface temperatures than CO2?

Sorry, but all the evidence points to George Bush's God as the responsible party for all this USDA zone creep.  Or that damn Sun HE made.

- or "Big Banged" itself, as you will........

Steve

[spockvr6]

[Alan_Tampa]

Steve, I try every day to be the biggest nut-job in this board.  You are now making me work harder than ever to maintain this designation.

I do not believe in the sun, it is a trick conjured up by George Bush's God's brother, Mortimer Percy.  Mortimer Percy is full of tricks, the sun already mentioned; coconut palms and the color blue.  Watch out for his other tricks for they will be your undoing.

Anyway, the zones creep as the weather creeps, climate stays the same more or less.  Trouble is we have far too small a data set to accurately describe and predict the weather with anything other than borderline useful resolution.

Alan

[epicure3]

One thing I can tell you, the cold headed our way doesn't fall a long party lines. That's for sure.

[happ]

Allow me to interject but the weather is about to go "CRAZY."  Recent NWS discussions allude to the 1998 Freeze that resulted in considerable agricultural loss - mainly NorCal.  

The impact of this arctic invasion will close in on all but coastal areas w' likely freeze in valleys.  Possible frost in some coastal areas [ie Oceanside].  Good chance that it will drop below 40F [not very zone 11  ???

Good luck Californios  

[steve 9atx]

Alan

One other rant:  the data set that we do have is not adjusted for the parallax induced by urban development.  My urban heat island is good for five degrees under certain circumstances (e.g., non-radiational freezes), and yet this data is compared 1:1 with the 1920's when much of my county was a forest, there was 7% of the current population (138,000 in 1920 vs 2,016,582 est 2005 in the city proper not counting the additional 1,500,000 in the county), and the impervious cover was  probably 2% of what it is now.  You can't tell me that current temperature data can be compared 1:1 with 1920's weather data without adjustment.  In my opinion, this applies worldwide, not just to my neck of the woods.  My bet is that were someone to figure out a set of coefficients to compare modern readings with one's obtained at the beginning of the "global warming" century, the 1 to 1.5F rise claimed would go away.  It may have actuall gotten COOLER: http://www.uah.edu/research/resrev96/Atmos/cooler.html

Steve

[osideterry]

Steve: To us non-scientists that sounded like a great impression of Doc' Brown in the "Back to the Future" movies. I read that twice and I'm still confused. In laymen's terms?

[osideterry]

I re-read your prior post and heartily agree with your position. I just get lost when words like paralax and coefficients are used! I think my brain got overeheated and inserted the words flux capacitor and space-time continuum in the middle somewhere.

[steve 9atx]

Terry

Actually, I'm an architect.  Although I do play a scientist on tv.

Steve

[osideterry]

My way of saying it. It's a naive arrogance to think 21st century man responsible for that which could only be caused by a force as big as the sun (or it's creator). It's even more naive to think we could do anything to impede or change that which is caused by a force as big as the sun (or it's creator).

I drive a car that gets 33mpg because it saves me money, and in a way, because it makes us that much less dependent on foreign oil. I can't slow down global warming by buying a Prius and getting 40mpg.

[steve 9atx]

Terry

Somebody needs to figure out how much diesel that container ship burned getting that Prius over to you from Japan, how many more exotic (and toxic) materials it takes to make a Prius (and how to dispose of them once your Prius is totalled by getting bumped by an SUV), how much private jet fuel it took to fly around those celebrities who advertise the Prius (http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2006-08-09-gore-green_x.htm), and, as South Park has made us all keenly aware, what to do about that massive cloud of "smug" generated by all the Prius drivers that's heading your way right now and on a collision course with George Cloony's acceptance speech!

Steve

[NM_PALM_BOY]

Howdy,

AAAAHHHH....finally back to normal....time to get the ole' convertible back out! (In LA that is...not Albuquerque...half the time, I don't now where I live! )

Doug