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ghar41

Northern CA freeze

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ghar41

Ive seen forcasts for my area of anywhere between 27F and 33F for tommorow night, Saturday the 19th. After a rain like this, it can be a real mess with lots of leaf burn and worse. ....just when I start to look towards March...

Anyone in Nor Cal have any info about this upcoming freeze?

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JasonD

NWS SFO talked about temperatures in North Bay valleys like Napa & Sonoma getting toward 32F and threatening frost.

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ghar41

The weathersource predicting 27F has changed their prediction to 31F

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Darold Petty

no frost here, but unseasonalbly cold. The morning temperature was 40F with an afternoon high of 42F, and sporadic rain throughout the day. Glenn, I sent you a PM.

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Tyrone

no frost here, but unseasonalbly cold. The morning temperature was 40F with an afternoon high of 42F, and sporadic rain throughout the day. Glenn, I sent you a PM.

42F as a max. Woahhh that's cold.

Best regards

Tyrone

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WestCoastGal

I've heard some of the bay area will get pretty low. Husband checked our local area expected temps tonight on the way home from work and think our area is suppose to be around 36-37 degrees tonight. He figures he will probably take in his dwarf orange tree tomorrow during the day as we heard it might be lower on Saturday or Sunday night.

We had some pea size hail the other day. It was brief and melted within a few minutes in my area. Saw that some areas north of me though got a pretty considerable ground covering of it. It's been raining for what seems days on end (not that bad but feels like it) and our backyard which is/was being newly landscaped looks more like I have a pool next to my fireplace and I'm not sure when work will resume yet. More rain forecasted for Saturday and then on Tuesday.

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WestCoastGal

I just checked Weather Underground ( wunderground.com ) for Modesto, they're pretty accurate for my area, and I hate to tell you but they are predicting lows in your area in the low 30s for this weekend and next week. Some areas may get to 28-29 on certain days. Good luck with your palms. At least the days will be warmer and spring is getting closer. I'm anxious for spring too, but I guess it is only mid-February.

BTW wunderground may have some individual weather station setups near you, like at a school or such, that you might find helpful. I like their site a lot and find it better than accuweather.

Edited by WestCoastGal

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happ

no frost here, but unseasonalbly cold. The morning temperature was 40F with an afternoon high of 42F, and sporadic rain throughout the day. Glenn, I sent you a PM.

I thought the Weather Channel had made a mistake by listing San Francisco's maximum at 43F\ 6.1C; that is really cold for the Bay Area. With the upper level trough sitting over the entire West Coast we should experience cold temps and occasional storms through the coming week. In-fact, there is a really cold storm forecast to descend onto California next weekend. If it actually verifies, we could see snow levels drop well below 1000 feet! :wacko:

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Palmy

LONG RANGED SF NOAA OFFICE

"FINALLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS BRING A VERY COLD

SYSTEM FROM CANADA DOWN TO OUR AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 0Z GFS

NUMBERS AT 700 MB WERE DOWN TO -19C ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF DOWN

TO -16 AT THE SAME TIME. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE

SNOW DOWN TO SEA LEVEL." - FEB 19

Interesting stuff...

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PalmGuyWC

The snow level is already at or below 1000' in the San Francisco Bay area. I just had reports that there is snow on the hills around Moraga, Layafette and the Oakland hills. I'm sure Mt Diablo is covered but I can't see it for the cloud cover. The weather is acting very strange. The blob of moisture that passed over us on Thursday coming from the north, stalled at Big Sur, then changed directions and backed up over the Bay Area yesterday. It's been raining here for the past three days, mostly light rain, but sometimes cloud bursts with heavy rain. There are reports of lightening, hail and sleet in parts of the Bay Area. The temps have been in a very narrow range, thanks to the cloud cover, mostly between 37 at night and 44 daytime.

Dick

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enigma99

Near record cold in NorCal.... I guess after a month of beautiful weather, it's finally our turn to get the brunt of arctic air... This sucks though

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ghar41

After a day of mixed sun and clouds, then rain and hail..temps in the low 50's....the major weather reporting organizations have again raised their low for tonight in my area. From a predicted low tonight of 27F-31F a few days ago, they are now predicting 33F-36F for tonight.

The reports have been as weird as the weather.

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enigma99

Just got to 39f at 9PM. Going to be cold..... I'll be happy if it only gets to the forecasted 32/33F

At 18:00, t was 45.8 and td 39.7, but now at 9:10, it is showing no sign of slowing with about 2 degrees an hour. (currently: t=38.8/td=35.3). With no wind, I would think it would drop to around saturation and then pretty much stop from there.

Edited by enigma99

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ghar41

44F at 10pm. Not too bad really.....

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enigma99

34.4 @ 12:34a... We could use some clouds lol.

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happ

Very interesting weather pattern over California. Something that rarely happens may occur late this week into next weekend. A blocking high pressure system over the Midwest may push a very cold arctic low westward into the Pacific Northwest from Canada. That airmass will be extremely cold. Even if the system moves out over the Pacific ocean it should be sufficiently cold enough to generate snowfall for coastal northern California. NWS_SF alluded to that yesterday when they mentioned sea-level snow for the Bay Area this coming weekend. A lot can happen in 5-7 days so it may not materialized but the Western U.S. will stay cold for the next week. Look at this graph from yesterday: :blink:

temp2-20-11.gif

Snowfall overnight dropped below 3000' here in Los Angeles; I took photos early the morning of the snow on the San Gabriel mountains above Pasadena\ La Canada\ La Crescenta.

Snow2-20-11026.jpg

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enigma99

Last night got down to about 31... Didn't see any immediate damage on bananas (they show first), so hopefully I can count it as a dodged bullet... But with more cold air on the way, might not be out of the woods yet!

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gsytch

Amazing how patterns change. Its been in the 70's since Monday, blazing sunshine, light breezes and it has hit 78f today at 1245p with dewpoint at 60f. Everything is breaking out, flowers, trees, orchids, and POLLEN! Hope you Calif folks weather this. I'd rather our cold during winter than now when we want spring.

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JasonD

Visible snow level on Mt. Tamalpais (in Marin County above Muir Woods) today was around 2300ft above sea level. After two days of rain with temperatures between 44 & 39 in San Francisco, I'd've expected more snow at lower elevations. SF received the most rainfall of any station in the NWS SFO district, 1.65in. This is a very rare occurrence. SF also beat its previous record-low high temperature by 3 degrees (previous 47F) yesterday.

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happ

It appears that most areas were above freezing across California this morning but it was quite chilly nonetheless. This week will likely stay well below normal but the National Weather Service projects minimums above freezing except near 32F in the usual cold regions [ie. Santa Rosa, Livermore]. Yesterday only a few stations reported maximums above 60F anywhere in the state; even the low desert was cold [normally temps should be in the mid-70's by mid-February]. The much advertized Arctic storm for late in the week is still being forecast but the various computer models are struggling with the exact track. If it moves offshore the ocean will modify the temperatures and snow levels may be higher. NWS_SF is still discussing the possibility of snow down to 1000 feet. The fear is when skies clear after the rain. :unsure:

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enigma99

55 @ 1PM. Yet another freezing cold today....

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Palmy

SF NOAA OFFICE MONDAY AFTERNOON...

"THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE DISTRICT ON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY

AND FRIDAY...AS WELL AS SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY FRIDAY AFTN 850 TEMPS

DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -6C...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -16C AND

THICKNESSES DOWN TO 530 DM. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES OVER THE

DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

ON SAT MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. DURING THIS

TIME 850 TEMPS ARE DOWN TO -7C...700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -17 TO -18C...

THICKNESSES BELOW 520 DM...AND 500 MB TEMPS PER THE ECMWF AS COLD AS

-39C! IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN SNOW LEVELS COULD VERY WELL DROP TO SEA

LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THIS WOULD BE EXTREMELY

UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR (OR ANY TIME DURING THE WINTER) AND IT IS

SEVERAL DAYS OFF HAVEN`T PUT IT INTO THE GRIDS. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE

MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO DROP

SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. KEEP TUNED!"

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enigma99

-____- great.

jetstream_h108_00.gif

I'm going to prepare for cold several degrees below the record. This is going to be historic and it really sucks.. But March 3rd is showing temps back to the mid 60s so it will be short lived.

Edited by enigma99

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happ

Here's this morning discussion from NWS_SF. Low elevation snow is definately going to be a factor and record cold temps:

"DURING THE DAY FRIDAY EXPECTING SHOWERY PRECIP WITH FREEZING LEVELS SLOWLY DROPPING AS MAIN 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGS WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF DRIVING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN BELOW 1000 FEET. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP AS LOW AS -7 CELSIUS WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS OF 519 DM AND LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1300 DM OR BELOW WHICH SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ESSENTIALLY THIS WOULD BE A RECORD BREAKING EVENT AND BY DEFINITION THESE TYPE OF THINGS ARE REALLY HARD TO FORECAST WITH MUCH LEAD TIME...LET ALONE DAYS AHEAD. SO ITS REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS. HOWEVER AS WAS NOTED LAST NIGHT THERE ARE NOT MANY WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW EVENTS OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS. I LOOKED AGAIN AT THE JAN 21 1962 EVENT AND REALIZED THIS WAS THE STORM THAT COINED THE TERM "CROSBY WEATHER". ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT KSFO MEASURED 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THAT DATE AS WELL...SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW. FOR THE RECORD THATS THE LARGEST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT FOR KSFO WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1927 AT THAT SITE. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL SEE SNOWFLAKES WELL BELOW 1000 FEET AT SOME POINT LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE BIGGER QUESTION AND IMPACT WOULD BE IF ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRED. THERE`S A REASON WE DONT HAVE MANY RECORDS OF IT HAPPENING...ITS JUST HARD TO GET AROUND HERE. THAT BEING SAID PATTERN DOES LOOK VERY FAVORABLE. LOOKING AT SNOW PHYSICS THE 700 MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS -17 C ON SATURDAY SUGGESTING FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH BETWEEN -12 C AND -17 C ASSUMING LIFT IN THAT LAYER. BOTTOM LINE IS SNOW PRODUCTION LOOKS FAVORABLE WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP. OTHER ITEMS TO CONSIDER ONCE THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IS IF SHOWERS ARE TIMED AT NIGHT VERSUS DAY AS THAT CAN ALTER FREEZING LEVELS BY 500-1000 FEET. AIRMASS WILL BE CONTINENTAL POLAR IN NATURE VERSUS MARITIME POLAR SO OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY. ASIDE FROM ALL THE LOW ELEVATION SNOW TALK...WE CAN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE IT WILL BE COLD AND THAT WILL HAVE A REAL IMPACT ON THE HOMELESS, ETC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

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enigma99

We're done in Norcal.........

At least in Socal it will be off the ocean for a few hours. I hate the polar jet.. i'm moving south

jetstream_h96_00.gif

Edited by enigma99

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Palmy

SF NOAA NWS OFFICE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS

"DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE STATE SPREADING RAIN

SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 1000 FEET BY

EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A RECORD COLD AIRMASS IS

FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE VERY LOW

ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 500 FEET AND SEA LEVEL. A DRYING AND

MODEST WARMING TREND IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY."

" HOWEVER AS WAS NOTED LAST NIGHT THERE ARE NOT MANY

WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW EVENTS OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS. I

LOOKED AGAIN AT THE JAN 21 1962 EVENT AND REALIZED THIS WAS THE STORM

THAT COINED THE TERM "CROSBY WEATHER". ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT

KSFO MEASURED 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THAT DATE AS WELL...SUGGESTING

WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW. FOR THE RECORD THATS THE LARGEST

MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT FOR KSFO WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1927 AT

THAT SITE."

They painted snow friday, friday night, and sat at my house at 1000 feet. some forecast models have been forecasting this event 5-7 days ago. My professor took a look at some of the data and he said he wouldn't be surprised if downtown SF had a dusting of snow.

Edited by Palmy

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JEFF IN MODESTO

Interesting.

The last time I saw snow in the valley was 1973 or 4.

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enigma99

I'll have my propane up and running all over.... I've had a lot of growth from the 70s in Jan-Feb and i'm not going to have a setback from over a day or two.

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iwan

They are only predicting 32F for the weekend for Fresno, not even a hard freeze, but it is only Tuesday. Not anything alarming at this poing, but late in the season with tender new growth emerging.

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Jim in Los Altos

When I was four years old, I woke up to see the snow of Jan. '62. It was incredible. I ran through the house trying to wake all my family up and they said go back to be, it's just some frost. There was almost four inches of the white stuff and my brother, sister, and I built a decent sized snowman later that morning.

On Feb. 4, 1976 we had snow on the ground again. Maybe 1 1/2 inches. Enough to have a snowball fight. Later that day it began snowing again in almost blizzard fashion and the teachers let us out of high school early to go play in the weird afternoon snow storm. I remember looking at all the palms in the area and thinking how cool they looked covered in snow.

I'm not sure how I feel about an event like that occurring again in a couple of days. In a way it would be neat and in another way it would be awful. I hope springlike weather returns soon after!

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ghar41

Predicted lows of 33 and 34F during this week, nothing drastic. It is cold though, highs of 49 and 48F on Friday and Saturday!

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ghar41

When I was four years old, I woke up to see the snow of Jan. '62. It was incredible. I ran through the house trying to wake all my family up and they said go back to be, it's just some frost. There was almost four inches of the white stuff and my brother, sister, and I built a decent sized snowman later that morning.

On Feb. 4, 1976 we had snow on the ground again. Maybe 1 1/2 inches. Enough to have a snowball fight. Later that day it began snowing again in almost blizzard fashion and the teachers let us out of high school early to go play in the weird afternoon snow storm. I remember looking at all the palms in the area and thinking how cool they looked covered in snow.

I'm not sure how I feel about an event like that occurring again in a couple of days. In a way it would be neat and in another way it would be awful. I hope springlike weather returns soon after!

I was in the 6th grade on Feb 4, 1976 and I remember the day very well. Our teacher grew weary of us bouncing up and down, looking out the window, and after the blizzard you mentioned, he let us out also.

This picture was taken that same day, about a mile from my house, in front of a local high school. The last measureable snow in this area.

snow2-76001.jpg

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gsytch

Way cool pic! When it snowed here in 1989, I have a pic of my car dusted in it on Xmas eve, with palms in the background also dusted. Unfortuanely, I cannot find that pic anymore!

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iwan

Last measurable snow here was in 1998. I had 3" of snow on the ground for three days. Low 18F and highs did not get above freezing for the same three days. Lots of dead Queens and Sagos turned to mush around town. It is the only time I have seen CalTrans spreading sand/salt in Fresno.

I saw pictures of snow in my mom's yearbook from Livingston (near Merced). I would have to check my notes, but the winter of 1962 and/or 1963 had an extended freeze, so the picture confirms those record low temps.

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PalmGuyWC

I've seen forecasts for the N. Calif inland valleys of lows on Sat night from 30F to 24F. I wish they could be a little more specific as there's a heck of a difference between 30 and 24F. I'm not worrying about snow, but the cold air and no cloud cover behind the fronts is what could be trouble. I guess a lot depends on cloud cover. At any rate we should all be prepared. All of my cold sensitive potted things are coming inside for a few days.This is an ugly shot from Mother Nature coming so late in the season.

Dick

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enigma99

Updated to be COLDER than forecasted. Fri night 28F, Sat, 26F. This will be the coldest temps all winter by far. And almost March! wow........

Not much good I can say about this, than if this hit around Xmas, we could easily by below 20

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Patrick

I've seen forecasts for the N. Calif inland valleys of lows on Sat night from 30F to 24F. I wish they could be a little more specific as there's a heck of a difference between 30 and 24F. I'm not worrying about snow, but the cold air and no cloud cover behind the fronts is what could be trouble. I guess a lot depends on cloud cover. At any rate we should all be prepared. All of my cold sensitive potted things are coming inside for a few days.This is an ugly shot from Mother Nature coming so late in the season.

Dick

Yep, looks like I'll be doing some prep work Friday for the cold nights ahead. I'm glad I finished my backyard shed last summer. It should be a perfect spot to protect my sensitive plants. Another nice thing is that I've stopped being so "experimental" with what plants I buy so I'm a little more comfortable leaving some things out.

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happ

NWS_SF posted the info below showing the records for Friday and Saturday that could be easily broken this weekend:

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

.LOCATION...................FEB 25........FEB 26

SANTA ROSA................24/1915.......21/1913

SAN RAFAEL................26/1904.......32/1996

NAPA......................30/1962.......30/1945

SAN FRANCISCO.............38/1887.......37/1962

KSFO......................35/1953.......36/1971

OAKLAND...................36/1987.......38/1987

KOAK......................33/1953.......34/1962

RICHMOND..................36/1962.......35/1962

LIVERMORE.................28/1942.......26/1987

SAN JOSE..................28/1894.......33/1897

GILROY....................31/1965.......29/1971

MONTEREY BAY AREA

.LOCATION...................FEB 25........FEB 26

MONTEREY..................35/1956........34/1971

SANTA CRUZ................30/1912........30/1964

SALINAS...................32/1997........28/1971

KSNS......................25/1935........28/1935

KING CITY.................23/1974........25/1964

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enigma99

Well.. the temp just dropped from 46 to 39 in about 10 minutes as it moved to the backside of the front. WOW

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WestCoastGal

I was out running errands and when I came out of the store I could feel the difference in air temp. The sun hadn't set yet but it was getting lower in the sky. Felt very cold so I'm not surprised by your temp drop enigma99. Heard we should it expect sudden drops when the cold air mass moved in after the rain. We were about 50F during the day when I was out and our local high school is reporting 44.5F with a windchill of 41F. And it does feel that cold! We moved from Chicago and were glad to get out the cold winter weather so I'm not loving this right now. We're predicted to be 32F with an 80% chance of rain tonight, which won't be good. Next two days even predicted colder.

While out I also couldn't help but notice the number of palms already fried (mostly younger Queens that were brown) or looking cold effected (mature fans and others with lower fronds looking brownish and upper ones looking kind of yellowish) and we haven't even have the really cold temps yet. It's rained off and on over the past two days and this morning my palm rings were filled. We're in the middle of a yard remodel and other parts of the yard were flooded and looking like a swimming pool. Might be a skating rink at some point! Before coming in the house this afternoon I looked at our taller mule and I think some of the leaflets were looking a little yellow. This is my first winter with palms so I'm a bit nervous of what they will look like in a few days. Not much to do about it but hope for the best. Good luck everyone with your gardens.

Edited by WestCoastGal

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