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SubTropicRay

El Nino status as of December 31

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SubTropicRay

Contrary to some weather reports, El Nino is not weakening yet.  The following is from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

830 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2007 - REVISED

BELOW AT THE BOTTOM IS THE OLD PMD FOR JANUARY 2007 AS OF THE MIDDLE OF

DECEMBER. WITH THE BENEFIT OF SHORT RANGE TOOLS BEING AVAILABLE AT THE END OF

DECEMBER WE CAN NOW ADD THE FOLLOWING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURE IS CONCERNED THERE

IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG-LEAD FORECAST FOR JANUARY AND THE SHORT TERM

TOOLS - A CONSIDERATION THAT BOOSTS THE PROBABILITIES OF THE OUTCOME VERIFYING

CATEGORICALLY. THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH

THE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN THE LAST 2 OR 3 WEEKS IN DECEMBER WHICH

RESEMBLES AN ENSO TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE. THE MODERATE WARM EVENT IN THE PACIFIC

IS AS MUCH IN PLACE NOW AS IT WAS 2 WEEKS AGO. IN GENERAL WE THUS INCREASED

PROBABILITIES.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR JANUARY IS MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE LONG LEAD

PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS BASED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON A WARM EVENT COMPOSITE

I.E. WET ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER - NONE OF THE OFFICIAL LONG LEAD TOOLS

SHOWED THIS PATTERN. FOR INSTANCE - WHILE THE CFS SHOWS AN ENSO EXPECTED

TEMPERATURE FIELD OVER THE US IT DOES NOT PRODUCE AN ENSO EXPECTED

PRECIPITATION PATTERN. WELL - NEITHER HAS NATURE AND THE SHORT TERM INDICATIONS

DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY ENSO-ISH EITHER. WE THUS LOWERED PROBABILITIES OVER

MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE ENSO EXPECTED RAINS HAVE

BEEN IN PLACE AND APPEAR TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEW YEAR. THERE ARE NO AREAS WITH

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE VERY EARLY PART OF JANUARY THAT WOULD

PERMIT THE USE OF ABOVE MEDIAN FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH. THE AREA FOR BELOW MEDIAN

IN THE OHIO VALLEY  WAS REMOVED BECAUSE THE 6-10 AND WEEK2 FORECASTS ARE ABOVE

MEDIAN.

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spockvr6

Sounds good to me Ray.  If it holds out another 3-4 weeks, we might be in the clear this year.

I hope those arent famous last words :D

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BobbyinNY

Fingers, Legs, & everything else that I can cross has been crossed.

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gsn

Ray,

Not to be the half empty glass kinda guy,but long range forecasting ,at best is not very good.

They even have trouble sometimes getting it right for a 24 hour period! ??? Mother nature makes a lot of twists and turns!

Weathermen, great job  they never have to be right! I have this love/hate feeling about these guys. :D

Need I bring UP how many named storms we were supposed to have this hurrricane season?

Mind you  I'm not complaining glad they were WRONG!

Hope they are right on this LONG RANGE forecast!

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SubTropicRay

Hi Scott,

I hear what you're saying.  Believe me, I take this kind of prediction with a grain of salt.  That said, knock on wood, they've been dead RIGHT this year. Even the pessimistic Accuweather service is asking where winter is and when it will arrive this year.  The ocean temps in the Pacific are still high and this is actually something tangible.  The same unexpected summer El Nino influence is what is keeping the eastern states so mild this winter.  God Bless the southern branch of the jetstream.

Ray

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chris.oz

The Australian weather office tends to agree.

My WebpageENSO/El Nino

The El Nino caused failure of the winter / spring  rains which re-charge our water storages.  Summer rain is good for the garden when it hits you,  but it is a hit and miss thing,  and often the thunderstorm passes over all too quickly.

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amazondk

Our weather here in Amazonas is also affected by El Nino.  We are  having a good rainy season and this is influenced by the air currents impacted by El Nino.  There is a High Pressure area in the region called the Boliva High. This is balanced by the Nordeste Low on the northeast coast of Brazil.  The area in the middle is the South American inter tropical convergence zone.  This is exactly where we are.  This area actually pushes humidity south into the area of Sao Paulo and Rio at this time of year.  They are having a lot of problems with flooding down there due to the rains.  Due to all the moisture over the Amazon Basin it is a major weather creation factor of the region.  

It is raining a lot this morning here.

dk

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