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ZoneTenNut

January thread

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 09 2007,21:15)

QUOTE
Yes Larry, I have noticed some mid 40's alarmingly close to me in Brandon and Riverview (like 15 to 20 miles to the NNE of me).

Yes......Brandon/Valrico/Seffner (the usual icebox poockets) are all already showing 43-44F.

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Neofolis

It's another of the kind of weather maps I love.  You have to go a long way South of here to find warmer temperatures on the mainland.

post-39-1168420843_thumb.jpg

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Neofolis

I've just checked, if I head due South from here, the first place I will encounter a higher temperature is at about N22°.  Not bad considering I am at about N51°.

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ZoneTenNut

7:34AM and 52F with 74% humidity.  :D  

Didn't get anywhere near the predicted lows here for this morning. Looks like the Lake O heat island effect contributed to the moderating in a big way for Palm Beach County.

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ZoneTenNut

Was doing a little research this morning and I've just about had a Zone 11 winter so far. Using the two closest reporting stations on the weather underground, there has only been one brief instance of below 45F and the coldest day was Nov. 21 with the lows at 36.7 & 39.5. In fact, hardly any lows this winter have been below 60F. :cool:

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SubTropicRay

Larry,

It never got as cold as they predicted.  I like these trends.

Ray

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 10 2007,07:33)

QUOTE
7:34AM and 52F with 74% humidity.  :D  

Didn't get anywhere near the predicted lows here for this morning. Looks like the Lake O heat island effect contributed to the moderating in a big way for Palm Beach County.

Same up this way....the forecasts were way off (to the good side) :D

Currently 49.3F with a low of 46.2F at 754AM.

Until the winds shifted to the NE rather than the N(which they seemed to do statewide which is likely why the forecasts were way off, especially on the east side of the state), it was over 60F at my house around midnight!  (NW winds are great over here.)  After the wind shift to the NE, temps and dewpoints dropped like the proverbial rock, but the wind shift was so late that it seems that there wasnt much time for the lows to get severely depressed.

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 10 2007,08:49)

QUOTE
Larry,

It never got as cold as they predicted.  I like these trends.

Ray

You wont find me complaining.  But, I am sure the other shoe will fall sooner or later. It is not reasonable to have a Zone 11 winter in my yard.  The lowest this 2006-2007 season thus far has only been 42.6F (12/9/06) and it is quite far fetched to have this hold all winter (but I certainly will take the gift if it happens).

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SubTropicRay

It better happen soon because prolonged cold weather in February is as rare as the warm spell we're having.

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 10 2007,09:21)

QUOTE
It better happen soon because prolonged cold weather in February is as rare as the warm spell we're having.

Im thinking one cold night.......But, I sure hope we skate through this winter as we have thus far.

Some of the forecasts are starting to show a stretch of colder weather in the longer term 7-10-15 days out)......I never put much stake in these though as they are pitifully inaccurate most of the time.  

Heck, look at last night......at midnight the forecasts couldnt even predict hat would happen at 6AM the next morning ???

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spockvr6

Heres what happens near the Gulf coast when winds shift from the NW as they were until around 11PM (or even mostly N) to NE.  Ive noticed this almost every single time.  The shift brings (usually rapidly) declining dewpoints and temperatures.  

I am thankful this wind shift did not occur 3-4 hours earlier  :D

wxStationGraph1-10-07.gif

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Gileno Machado

Here we had a wet break this week for our dry season. My palms are loving this sudden humidity...

The sun started moving back to the Northern Hemisphere again so we are just about to start our second consecutive summer !!! (At 8° south latitude winters and summers are just reference terms, mostly confused with rainy and dry seasons).

Here's some weather data and forecast:

post-157-1168439946_thumb.jpg

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amazondk

As you can see by the map posted by Gileno there is a lot of rain across the South Atlantic Tropical Convergence Zone.  This has caused major flooding and damage in Southern Brazil.  El Nino is a main cause for the extreme conditions.  For Manaus it has been raining a lot, which is normal, but this year it is really raining.  I am curently in Boa Vista, Roraima which is 2 degrees north Latitude.  Here it is the dry season and clear and hot.  

The current weather in Boa Vista, Roraima

FairFair

86°F

Feels like: 90°F

Barometer: 29.9 in falling

Dewpoint: 70°

Humidity: 58%

Visibility: 6 miles

Wind: 22 mph ENE

Sunrise: 6:11 AM

Sunset: 6:09 PM

Observed at Boa Vista, Boa Vista Intl .

All times shown are local to Boa Vista.

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gsn

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 10 2007,09:27)

QUOTE
Some of the forecasts are starting to show a stretch of colder weather in the longer term 7-10-15 days out)......I never put much stake in these though as they are pitifully inaccurate most of the time.  

Heck, look at last night......at midnight the forecasts couldnt even predict hat would happen at 6AM the next morning ???

Larry,

Weathermen you gotta love/hate them!

Long range forecasts are just like short range forecasts GUESSES. As demonstrated last night! :laugh:

I checked quite a few different forecasts for last night and no one had a dissenting opinion about how cold it was going to get.

The problem with these forecasts, that they completly miss are:

Yes, this one went our way.

The next one could easily go the other way, and they miss it, but  be 8 or 10 degrees colder than predicted,and  a  resulting freeze could catch us all by surprise! :(

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Exotic Life

Last night was so good! The tempeture last night don't go lower then 12,7C/53.6F .... Normally it must be 0C/32F in the nights.... I like this winter so far !!

Robbin

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ZoneTenNut

Winds have shifted from NE now, so temps are climbing at a good clip, since air is moving over warm gulfstream waters, before getting to us. Happy days are here again.  :D

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happ

ZoneTenNut

I've notice how warm it can be on the east shore of Florida in comparison to Tampa  ???  Any idea why?

Agree w/ Scott/Larry over poor performance from local NWS offices, especially when they circulate old forecast updates that were incorrect the day before!  Regularly remind them to wake-up or go outside for a change  :laugh:  You know, look at the rain you continue to forecast isn't happening  :o

I wish that the NWS were wrong about what is descending into California tonight.  Current temps @ 9PM :

Seattle 30F

Portland 32F

San Francisco 46F

Los Angeles 60F

San Diego 62F    

Tomorrow & certainly Friday may not get any warmer than current readings  :o

An interesting aspect to this event is that it is more likely to rain in SoCal than NoCal as the super cold air flows out over the ocean south of Pt Concepcion.  As cold as the ocean is [ie 59F Santa Monica bay] it is much warmer than the air & even coastal clouds/marine layer can precipitate.  Any clouds/moisture will keep it above 40 degrees.  As soon as it clears night temps will plummet unless the wind rescues us.  Please please please  :laugh:

FREEZE WATCH  for inland valleys/possible frost down to the coast  :o

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ZoneTenNut

(happ @ Jan. 11 2007,00:44)

QUOTE
ZoneTenNut

I've notice how warm it can be on the east shore of Florida in comparison to Tampa  ???  Any idea why?

There are a likely a few reasons, but primarily, I would say the warm gulf stream and the trade winds. The warm gulf stream runs right along the coast over here and the trade winds come from the SE, so the air gets warmed up before coming on shore.

Looks like you might indeed, be in for another cold spell. Lets hope it doesn't get low enough to do any damage. Strange how dramatically different the weird weather is effecting the west coast as opposed to the east coast.

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spockvr6

(happ @ Jan. 11 2007,00:44)

QUOTE
ZoneTenNut

I've notice how warm it can be on the east shore of Florida in comparison to Tampa  ???  Any idea why?

You mean like this?

1-11-2006-600AM.jpg

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ZoneTenNut

65F and 72% humidity at 6:55AM. Much warmer again.

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 11 2007,06:51)

QUOTE
There are a likely a few reasons, but primarily, I would say the warm gulf stream and the trade winds. The warm gulf stream runs right along the coast over here and the trade winds come from the SE, so the air gets warmed up before coming on shore.

I have come to realize that wind direction (and water temperature) means everything down here.

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 11 2007,06:56)

QUOTE
65F and 72% humidity at 6:55AM. Much warmer again.

Much much colder up here in Larry's Jungle.  48.4F low at 6:08AM.  When the flow is from the NE (as it was overnight and is now), the Gulf's benefit is reduced.

The warmup here should (is supposed to) start today.

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spockvr6

(Trópico @ Jan. 11 2007,07:23)

QUOTE
What the heck?  :angry:

I have this sinking feeling that it will be worse than that if the current front heading to Texas gets here.

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 11 2007,06:51)

QUOTE
There are a likely a few reasons, but primarily, I would say the warm gulf stream and the trade winds. The warm gulf stream runs right along the coast over here and the trade winds come from the SE, so the air gets warmed up before coming on shore.

Heres another good map from the Florida Climate Center which hints at the usual flow----

EHEAT.JPG

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spockvr6

And the Florida Climate Center's associated cold hardiness map---

ECOLD.JPG

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ruskinPalms

47.1 F here this morning. About a degree F warmer than yesterday morning. Lots of 80's ahead for the next few days or so. 75 F here around noon today. Looks like the next cooldown will come in the middle of the next week. Larry, I don't look for it to be any worse than this last one (I hope!) as the warm waters of the gulf and bay are going to get a nice recharge for the remainder of this week. Any thing coming from Texas and the deep south has to pass over a lot of warmish water before it gets to the Florida west coast. I really think the waters are too warm to have an advective catastrophe this year. That is not to say we won't see a nasty, even late, radiational freeze and/or frost like last Feb 14th!

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Exotic Life

Today was a nasty day, a lot of rain and high windspeeds! Storm weather ... the depresion that give us all the mild weather the last day's go over us ... There are recorded wind speeds close to the 120 km/hour = 74 Mph. The highest windspeeds are recorded at the coast, west and southwest of the Netherlands.

There are damage reports ... here in garden i have little damage to the Sabal (big leafes). But in that nasty weather i have recorded also a tempeture from 11.5C/52.7F ...

In this treath i have show some damage picture's ...

http://palmtalk.org/cgi-bin/forum/ikonboar...=ST;f=10;t=2678

N_070111_StormZee_b.jpg

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SubTropicRay

Larry,

Did you notice how the FCC map splits Tampa right in half?

Ray

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spockvr6

(Ray @ Tampa,Jan. 11 2007,14:10)

QUOTE
Larry,

Did you notice how the FCC map splits Tampa right in half?

Ray

Sure did.....Pinellas as well (maybe 1/3 split anyway).

I have always been cuirious as the the background discussions, data, etc that go into creating these maps.  There is obviously some "edu-ma-kat-ed" guessing going on as well.

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gsn

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 11 2007,14:40)

QUOTE
I have always been cuirious as the the background discussions, data, etc that go into creating these maps.  There is obviously some "edu-ma-kat-ed" guessing going on as well.

I'm pretty sure they all grad-gi-at-ed at least 5th grade! Just like Jethro Bodine! :P

I understand  Lakemont  Elementry has a great meteorogly, climatology, and atmospheric science department!  :D

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Exotic Life

It looks for here that i stay mild ... the next 10 day's but i have read also messenges that we get maybe next thursday another storm, but a stronger one then this on ... But that is far away so i can be change ... :)

Robbin

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gsn

I guess Accuweather even knows you can't predict temps 10 to 15 days out!!!  Looks like they gave up?  :P

AccuWeather.com Forecast: Days 11- 15

Sunday, Jan 21 High: 74 °F RealFeel®: 71 °F

Sunday Night, Jan 21 Low: 52 °F RealFeel®: 51 °F

Monday, Jan 22 High: 70 °F RealFeel®: 68 °F

Monday Night, Jan 22 Low: 52 °F RealFeel®: 51 °F

Tuesday, Jan 23 High: 70 °F RealFeel®: 68 °F

Tuesday Night, Jan 23 Low: 52 °F RealFeel®: 50 °F

Wednesday, Jan 24 High: 70 °F RealFeel®: 68 °F

Wednesday Night, Jan 24 Low: 52 °F RealFeel®: 51 °F

Thursday, Jan 25 High: 70 °F RealFeel®: 68 °F

Thursday Night, Jan 25Low: 52 °F RealFeel®: 51 °F

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SubTropicRay

Scott,

Check back tomorrow.  They flip flop like crazy.  It's not accurate outside of the 4-5 day time frame.

Ray

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ZoneTenNut

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 11 2007,09:42)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 11 2007,06:51)

QUOTE
There are a likely a few reasons, but primarily, I would say the warm gulf stream and the trade winds. The warm gulf stream runs right along the coast over here and the trade winds come from the SE, so the air gets warmed up before coming on shore.

Heres another good map from the Florida Climate Center which hints at the usual flow----

Larry,

Man can you dig up the maps. I love em. Pictures paint a thousand words.

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 11 2007,21:39)

QUOTE
Scott,

Check back tomorrow.  They flip flop like crazy.  It's not accurate outside of the 4-5 day time frame.

Ray

Isnt the accuweather forecast pretty much computer generated?  

Weatherunderground is also along the same lines it seems.....

The good ole NWS always seems to do the best job for my area.  They do miss it sometimes (they all do), but NWS seems to miss less often.  And, their "point and click" forecasts are a big bonus.  

NWS seems to fall into the "probability forecaster" realm (i.e. there is a 50% chance "X" will happen), while many of the other flashy forecasters seem to be "all or nothing" types (it will snow in Miami today!).  They either win big or lose big.

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 11 2007,21:42)

QUOTE

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 11 2007,09:42)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 11 2007,06:51)

QUOTE
There are a likely a few reasons, but primarily, I would say the warm gulf stream and the trade winds. The warm gulf stream runs right along the coast over here and the trade winds come from the SE, so the air gets warmed up before coming on shore.

Heres another good map from the Florida Climate Center which hints at the usual flow----

Larry,

Man can you dig up the maps. I love em. Pictures paint a thousand words.

These maps all tell us what we already know....but the purty colors make me smile.....see?  :D

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SubTropicRay

Larry,

Yes it is but the GFS model they follow changes it's mind every 6 hours.  The NWS is smart enough to wait for trends instead of flip flopping daily.

Ray

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 11 2007,22:12)

QUOTE
Larry,

Yes it is but the GFS model they follow changes it's mind every 6 hours.  The NWS is smart enough to wait for trends instead of flip flopping daily.

Ray

I have often wondered......

Given say 100 years of weather data......

What if one merely "forecast" the average temps for that day as measured by that long term period?  I wonder just how often one would be correct?   Sure...there would be times where one would look really really stupid (and Im obviously not suggesting that someone would actually forecast in this manner), but I wonder if over the long haul the forecast accuracy would be about on par with all these various computer models?

:D

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Palmy

34.9, oh, are there a few snow/rain showers headed this way in the next few hours.

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