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ZoneTenNut

January thread

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Bilbo

I owe it to some of our Continental European members to mention a little of what some of our guys are pioneering out there: Beat Lanz, Switzerland,  Robert Lackner, Austria, and Patricia (the loveliest blonde I have ever met) Roethlisberger of France with a wonderful view of the Alps fom the banks of Lac Leman or Lake Geneva depending on which side of the border.

Those guys go for it and think nothing of planting Brahea armata and many other palms.

Be nice to hear from them: I can assure the guys that their English is probably better than mine!

Regardez all

Juan

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amazondk

Here on the Amazon it has been raining a lot.  Of course January is traditionally the wettist month.  I drove over to Itacaoatiara, 260 kms from Manaus on Wednesday and got in a rain storm so bad that I could not see the road in front of me and had to stop the car.  There were lightning strikes all around shaking things up.  And, to top it off one it a transformer close to the car and it exploded.  We don't get hurricanes  the like around here, but when it decides to rain it can come down pretty hard.

Yesterday at lunch, I suppose the temperature was around 85 F.  This is shot looking out of the restaurant on the Amazon River on a winters day.

LunchontheAmazon2.jpg

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Exotic Life

2007 warmest year ever ?

2007 'to be hottest year on record'

Meteorlogists are warning that 2007 could be the warmest year on record.

Tthe Met Office says an extended warming period, resulting from an El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, will probably push up global temperatures.

El Nino events are marked by the arrival of unusually warm waters off the north-western coast of South America.

Experts describe these events as the largest influence on the year-to-year variability of the Earth's climate.

The global surface temperature is projected to be 0.54C (0.97F) above the long-term average of 14C (57F), beating the current record of 0.52C (0.94F), which was set in 1998.

The annual projection was compiled by the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia.

The scientists also revealed that 2006 saw the highest average temperature in the UK since records began in 1914.

Chris Folland, head of the Hadley Centre's climate variability research, said the forecast was primarily based on two factors.

The first was greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, he said.

"This is a statistical method; it is a number that represents the heating of the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases cause heating, while aerosols cause cooling," Professor Folland told BBC News.

"The other factor which allows us to make a forecast that whether one year is significantly different from the next is the effect of the El Nino."

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happ

Not as windy today & actually quite nice.  Should stay warm for a few more days then turn windy again & chilly late in the week.  Little if any rain  :(

LA : 76/52

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ZoneTenNut

Still very warm for this time of year. 67F 86% humidity at 6:28AM. Looking for 83F high today, but cooler temps forecast to start tonight. Doesn't appear to be a significant cooldown though and temps to head right back to 80ish shortly thereafter.

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ZoneTenNut

Just getting light out and there is a thick primordial fog this morning. Everything is just dripping wet. My palms and I just love mornings like this. Getting my coffee and going for a walkabout.

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spockvr6

Yes....another warm one this AM with a low of 70.2F at 559AM.  At 930AM, its warmed to 75F, but thats probably about all well get to today as this is about to hit----

front-1.jpg

And, the next cold front is making its way down the peninsula as we speak----

nextwave.jpg

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SubTropicRay

A couple of cool (inclement) weather days and then back to the 80's F by the weekend.  I may actually miss winter when it's gone this year.

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spockvr6

Looks like the front will arrive in the Tampa Bay area very shortly.  My station has maxxed out the temp at 75.7F at 1030AM and some drizzle along with temps 2-3F cooler have set in.

As of 11AM---

nextwave2.jpg

It looks like the warm weather will kick back in on Thursday after what might be the coldest night so far this season....and yes if this is winter I will surely miss it when its cover with.  Hopefully much of the Tampa Bay area will stay in the lower 40's.

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spockvr6

The front is stretching its legs now....as of 2PM.  Its doing its best to nudge all that 80F air out to the Atlantic.

1-8-07-2PM.jpg

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ZoneTenNut

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 08 2007,14:25)

QUOTE
The front is stretching its legs now....as of 2PM.  Its doing its best to nudge all that 80F air out to the Atlantic.

Looks like a real battle going on up you're way. We're still sunny and 83F with 73% humidity at 2:32pm. So far so good. Hold that advancing cold off up there!  Your neighbors down south will appreciate it :P

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 08 2007,14:32)

QUOTE
Looks like a real battle going on up you're way. We're still sunny and 83F with 73% humidity at 2:32pm. So far so good. Hold that advancing cold off up there!  Your neighbors down south will appreciate it :P

We are doing our best Zone 10, but I fear that Canada's late Christmas gift may be too much to hold back :D   But, Ill bet we can keep it busy for today and you can enjoy the rest of the nice afternoon (of which we have been deprived)!

The winds have shifted up here from SW to N/NW and the attendant dewpoints have come way down (from a dewpoint of about 70-71F earlier today down to about 56F at the current time.

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gsn

Unfortunatly the rain with this approching cold front, completly fizzled out! :(

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spockvr6

(gsn @ Jan. 08 2007,15:35)

QUOTE
Unfortunatly the rain with this approching cold front, completly fizzled out! :(

Yes....nothing measurable at my house either  :(

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ZoneTenNut

I got about 1/2 inch around 3:30pm. Winds are still out of the SSW and 74F, so we haven't seen the change yet, but see if creeping down the peninsula our way.

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Palmy

For the rest of the nation, its great, but for here, its looking well shall I say 'not good.' They are forecasting temps as low as 22F -  40F on friday. Typically we tend to be at the 22F area for the low. There is even a chance of snow as above 1000 feet. The past few nights have been just above freezing. Last night it was 34F.

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happ

Larry

Thanks for the great graphics  :P  Where do you find these maps?

I have to laugh to myself when I read you Floridians write about dew points/relative humidity.  We'd be happy for some of that muggy air w/ current readings in the single digits  :o

Rather warm today; maybe the warmest temps in the nation around Los Angeles.  This weather will pass away as a major shift occurs later thus week. Cold dry winds are gathering off Canadian coast  :(  

LA : 88/61

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ruskinPalms

63.3 F right now at about 8:15pm.  Also pretty windy and very clear now. Tonight won't be the coldest night for me, that will be tomorrow night. I think they are forcasting about 40F for me tomorrow night, but I seem to get a little lower than forcast so a surprise light frost wold not be out of the question for me if the winds die tomorrow night. Here's hoping for the best and a quick return to those humid 70's and 80's since like an idiot, I decided to plant a clump of Jamaican Dwarf Heliconia about 2 days ago. That warm weather can make you do crazy things!

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spockvr6

Bill-

Yes...warm weather makes one do such things....guilty as charged!

Its cooler over here than down your way (60F at 955PM with much lower dewpoints of 45F as well) so the front must be "settling in" at the usual 45 degree angle SW to NE.  Your dewpoints will probably start to drop faster later this evening.

I am with you about tomorrow night....I have a feeling it will be the coldest night of the season thus far.

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ZoneTenNut

(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 08 2007,20:17)

QUOTE
Here's hoping for the best and a quick return to those humid 70's and 80's since like an idiot, I decided to plant a clump of Jamaican Dwarf Heliconia about 2 days ago. That warm weather can make you do crazy things!

I have to confess doing the same thing. I planted out a 3 gal. Ylang Ylang and about half a dozen assorted 8"-10" palms I had lying in wait. Watering heavily and hoping for the best, but don't think this one is going to be too bad. 11:13PM and 71F 84% Humidity.

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Neofolis

Last night our temperature didn't drop below 12°C/54°F and tonight is forecast for the same temperature.  This is incredible for January when our July/August night time average is 11°C/52°F.

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ZoneTenNut

(Neofolis @ Jan. 09 2007,04:11)

QUOTE
Last night our temperature didn't drop below 12°C/54°F and tonight is forecast for the same temperature.  This is incredible for January when our July/August night time average is 11°C/52°F.

That really is amazing. Those are just a tad under West Palm Beach's avg. low for this time of year, which I believe is about 59-61F.

The expected front here, arrived early this morning and I am at 59F with 75% humidity at 6:30am. The temperature has been dropping fairly steadily the last hour or so. Tomorrow morning should be our coldest morning in this event and they are forecasting mid 40's for the low. Brrrrr! This is going to be tough to take with all the recent mid to upper 80's.

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 09 2007,06:30)

QUOTE
The expected front here, arrived early this morning and I am at 59F with 75% humidity at 6:30am. The temperature has been dropping fairly steadily the last hour or so. Tomorrow morning should be our coldest morning in this event and they are forecasting mid 40's for the low. Brrrrr! This is going to be tough to take with all the recent mid to upper 80's.

Much cooler/drier up here.  At 7AM, it was 50.2F with a dewpoint depressed to 29-30F!

I used this morning to do a quick test with my lawn sprinklers. I let the sprinklers run for half an hour and checked how the temp changed in the area where the srpinklers were running.  Even though the water temp is 72F, the air temp actually dropped to 48F with the sprinklers running!  But, as expected the dewpoint rose.

I suspect this happened because the air is so dry and it was windy.  The water was evaporating off so fast it was cooling things down.  

I pretty much knew this would happen (see all those old stories of citrus groves trying to run overhead irrigation under advective conditions), but wanted to see it for myself.

Tomorrow AM will either be quite cold for me, or moderately so depending on which way the wind is blowing.  I prefer NW :D

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Steve

Yes winter will be back here for the next couple days as well.  Lows are predicted to be in the high 20's F for the next two mornings.  That's only a few degrees lower than the average low of 31F for this time of year.  I think everyone around here is getting spoiled.  This weekend we are expected to have highs in the mid to high 60's again.  This is on average the coldest part of the year.  Overall the weather has been great lately.  We've gotten lots of much needed rain (approx 3.5" since Christmas at my house) and have had some very warm sunny days.  It got to 70F at my house on Saturday.

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BobbyinNY
Yes winter will be back here for the next couple days as well.  Lows are predicted to be in the high 20's F for the next two mornings.  That's only a few degrees lower than the average low of 31F for this time of year.  I think everyone around here is getting spoiled.  This weekend we are expected to have highs in the mid to high 60's again.  This is on average the coldest part of the year.  Overall the weather has been great lately.  We've gotten lots of much needed rain (approx 3.5" since Christmas at my house) and have had some very warm sunny days.  It got to 70F at my house on Saturday.

I hear ya, Steve... We HAVE been spoiled. I was in FL on Saturday, but my friends tell me it was in the low 70's up on Long Island. The official reading in NYC was 73f on Saturday.... Now it's in the 40's.... :(    but it's supposed to warm up again.

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Exotic Life

A update from here ... the weather was very good today, 14C/57.2F and we get a warm night from 12C/53.6F. And we have got sunshine :)

The nature here completly confused, plants came above the ground and going to flower, plant's don't loss the leafes. Other plants still grwoing, and we do see insect and other bugs that we don't see here normally at this time. Some butterfly still stay here ... I don't hope that we get huge frost night's in the next 2 month's i think the nature get a lot of damage then!

The spell for here for the next 5 day's tempetures still above average! But a little colder then the last few day's.

Wednesday 10-01

Day: 13C/55.4F

Night: 12C/53.6F

Thursday 11-01

Day: 12C/53.6F

Night: 4C/39.2F

Fryday 12-01

Day: 12C/53.6F

Night: 8C/46.4F

Saturday 13-01

Day: 13C/55.4F

Night: 12C/53.6F

Sunday 14-01

Day: 10C/50F

Night: 8C/46.4F

So stay mild, very mild!

Robbin

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NBTX11

Big Artic front coming down out of Canada in about 5 to 6 days folks.  Don't know if it is supposed to push through FL yet, but we are going to get some really cold air next monday or so.  Yikes!! I hate cold!!

Today

Jan 09  Partly Cloudy 67°/38° 0 %

Wed

Jan 10  Mostly Sunny 65°/52° 0 %

Thu

Jan 11  Cloudy 69°/61° 10 %

Fri

Jan 12  Isolated T-Storms 72°/63° 30 %

Sat

Jan 13  Scattered T-Storms 74°/56° 60 %

Sun

Jan 14  Cloudy 60°/39° 10 %

Mon

Jan 15  Few Showers 46°/31°

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spockvr6

Looks like the front has nearly managed to force all the 70F+ air out to sea :(

1-9-07-3PM.jpg

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SubTropicRay

Larry,

The coldest night of the year is on tap tonight (42F expected).  That's if unexpected clouds don't pop up at 3AM like last time.  With an active subtropical jet, you never know what's going to pop up overhead.  

Ray

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BobbyinNY

Hey Guys.....

Look at what my "good friend" Joe Bastardi (officially known as Doom-N-Gloom) has forcasted on Accuweather.com..... I HATE THIS GUY!!!!  

According to Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the weather from mid-January through mid-February could mimic the winters of 1957-58 and 1965-66. Those winters began with warm conditions before finishing with cold and stormy weather.

Bastardi says in a worst-case scenario, the country will experience a repeat of the winter of 1977-78. After a tepid start, that winter was remarkable for its cold and storms, including three powerful blizzards in the Northeast. "Those who think that winter 2006-2007 is going to remain mild are in for a shock. Winter is likely to come with a vengeance. A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

Bastardi believes that if the change in the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the onset of cold weather could result in "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."

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spockvr6

(Ray @ Tampa,Jan. 09 2007,15:46)

QUOTE
Larry,

The coldest night of the year is on tap tonight (42F expected).  That's if unexpected clouds don't pop up at 3AM like last time.  With an active subtropical jet, you never know what's going to pop up overhead.  

Ray

That would be fine with me Ray....winds have died right off over here and as such my yard is primed for a big radiational drop.

Fortunately, dewpoints are (albeit slowly) rising.

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happ

Bobby

Bastardi is considered a "guru" within weathernut community  :P   Others have suggested up-coming pattern resembling cold outbreaks many years ago  :o

Jim

I think California transports weather conditions into Texas as your graph shows [nice warming followed by cold].  Unfortunately it will be arctic air that Cali sends later this weekend.

Winds are lowering though DP/RH remain below 20%. Still quite warm for one last day.  Stay goodbye to the 80's  Bye Bye 80's :(

LA : 85/61  

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spockvr6

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 09 2007,17:26)

QUOTE

(Ray @ Tampa,Jan. 09 2007,15:46)

QUOTE
Larry,

The coldest night of the year is on tap tonight (42F expected).  That's if unexpected clouds don't pop up at 3AM like last time.  With an active subtropical jet, you never know what's going to pop up overhead.  

Ray

That would be fine with me Ray....winds have died right off over here and as such my yard is primed for a big radiational drop.

Fortunately, dewpoints are (albeit slowly) rising.

Thank goodness for NW winds.  They picked up after about 7PM and the temp and dewpoint have been rising ever since.  As such a tremendous gradient is developing from west to east across the Bay area.

Selfishly, I hope this wind direction will keep up all night.

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ruskinPalms

Yes Larry, I have noticed some mid 40's alarmingly close to me in Brandon and Riverview (like 15 to 20 miles to the NNE of me). I've been hanging onto the upper 50's so far. I do like that northwest wind blowing across the gulf and bay  :)  If it calms down, I think I will drop pretty quick, but I think I should stay out of frost territory as this unexpected extended warmth this evening has given me a buffer for the night.

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SunnyFl

(BobbyinNY @ Jan. 09 2007,16:14)

QUOTE
Hey Guys.....

Look at what my "good friend" Joe Bastardi (officially known as Doom-N-Gloom) has forcasted on Accuweather.com..... I HATE THIS GUY!!!!  

Hehe, no love for him here either....

Bastardi says in a worst-case scenario, the country will experience a repeat of the winter of 1977-78.

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Ehhh I remember THAT stinkin' mess.  My two disastrous years Up North - and we got outa there ASAP.  It was horrible, didn't think I'd ever see my beloved FL again.

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SunnyFl

(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 09 2007,21:15)

QUOTE
Yes Larry, I have noticed some mid 40's alarmingly close to me in Brandon and Riverview (like 15 to 20 miles to the NNE of me). I've been hanging onto the upper 50's so far. I do like that northwest wind blowing across the gulf and bay  :)  If it calms down, I think I will drop pretty quick, but I think I should stay out of frost territory as this unexpected extended warmth this evening has given me a buffer for the night.

I hope that "buffer" keeps up - frost is nasty.

I notice the forecast for my immediate area calls for a low of 46 tonight, so I won't have to bring anything in.  Larry, your catechu may sulk a bit though.

Here's hoping that the temps will warm up after tonight.

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NBTX11

(happ @ Jan. 09 2007,19:40)

QUOTE
Jim

I think California transports weather conditions into Texas as your graph shows [nice warming followed by cold].  Unfortunately it will be arctic air that Cali sends later this weekend.

Winds are lowering though DP/RH remain below 20%. Still quite warm for one last day.  Stay goodbye to the 80's  Bye Bye 80's :(

LA : 85/61  

This could be the coldest of the year, if the forecasts stay true.  We haven't gone below 30F yet this winter.  Sometimes weather.com overplays these cold fronts, they usually moderate by the time they get down to me.

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spockvr6

Yes...this little "buffer" is nice.  The temp is sitting at 60.1F here now at 1010PM and I expected colder by this point.  As long as the winds stay NW, well be in great shape.  If the winds die, or shift NE, then the dewpoints will likely drop along with the temp.

My Areca cathcu has weather down to 42.6F unprotected so far this winter (as has my pot of C. renda seedlings) and all have fared fine.  The catechu had some very very light spotting (which only I would notice since I see the palm all the time) and the C. rendas are actually completely unscathed!

Bob Riffle always said that Lipstick palms were severely under rated when it came to cold hardiness and I believe him.

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spockvr6

Heres comes the dewpoint drop and wind shift more to the N.......... :(

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