Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
bubba

Can Florida Close

Recommended Posts

bubba

Accuweather Dude Joe Bastardi predicted at some early time (?)that Florida should enjoy(?) December because Winter was over after that in Florida.In Southeast Florida, it is difficult to complain. Particularly, after last Jan.2-12, we have experienced an outstanding January. We have had a few cool days with highs in the 60'sF.but lows only in the mid 40'sF.Primarily, this has been highs in the mid 70's with lows around 60 F.to upper 50'sF. This is perfect weather for those of us, who sweat from Feb. to Nov.

That stated, in 1899 armeggedon hit Florida, Texas and the entire South on Feb.13-14.Will armeggedon hit again this year? Is Bastardi for real? Does anyone know the dynamics Bastardi employs for prediction as explained in common terms for those of us who want to understand and learn?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
epicure3

I gave up on Bastardi a long time ago. He is pretty good but his long range forecasts are so east coast centric to the point where he rarely mentions the west coast at all. I think he just uses his own understanding of downstream weather systems to come up with his forecasts along with a pretty accurate comparison to previous years. I don't think he uses the common models very much unless it's to compare his forecasts with theirs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and can boast of a long record of successes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
epicure3

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and can boast of a long record of successes.

LOL....good point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Epic, I think Bastardi does center primarily on the East and Europe. Apparently, he is considered somewhat of a rock star over the pond. No question he focuses on Florida but he does seem to have some long range accuracy. This is particularly true if his prediction about Winter ending in Dec. is true. At this time, we will take anything resembling "good news".

Palmerati, Did you make that up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TropicalDude

Bastardi has certainly been more accurate than people like Stu Ostro and other meteorologists from the Weather Channel who can only be heard saying "how warm 2010 has been!" and predicted a mild winter...

Even if February resulted in a colder month, Bastardi at least got January right, which is more than it can be said about most of the above.

Where I am February is usually cool but without extremes. However, back in 1996 Central Florida got hit with the coldest temperature dip since 1989.

Edited by TropicalDude

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

An overnight low of 63F rising to a high of 80.4F today, and its still 79.3F at 4:50PM. Give me some of that arctic oscillation, my palms are loving it! :lol:

Edited by sonoranfans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

An overnight low of 63F rising to a high of 80.4F today, and its still 79.3F at 4:50PM. Give me some of that arctic oscillation, my palms are loving it! :lol:

You bum!

71.3F / 58.6F here today.

But, it was warm enough to inspire me to throw a few Ti plants into the ground and a couple of Dypsis madagascariensis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sur4z

Hey Bubs...your guy got it wrong (again)...it's going to be in the 40's Sat night. I recall him saying two cold spells ago that winter in SoFlo was over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Pedro, 50F; "Watch out where the Huskies go; Don't eat none of that yellow snow". Weak...very weak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

Accuweather in general (not just Bastardi) is a hype machine. I like the broken clock comment LOL. Bastardi has been right but has also been wrong plenty of times. Even blind squirrels find nuts here and there.

If Accuweather propheses that winter is over in the east, folks like us stop reading his permanent "It's going to get cold again" blog.

Bubba, Accuweather's 15 day forecast here is almost always off the mark. It usually ends up being much more mild than what's predicited. This winter has not been warm by any means but 100% better than last January. Most of my losses this December were actually plants greatly weakened by last January and finished off this year's cool chill. If those same plants had not been exposed to last January's cold, they would have made it easily through this winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

When pundits predict football game outcomes(W/L) their cumulative accuracy is tracked. It would be interesting to see the data on meteoroligists, I think it would be a bit of an eye opener and it would at least rank them properly. A lot of people get performance tested on their jobs, and we get annual reviews. I think this is in order for our fearless forecasters, see if they can get within 3 degrees with a greater penalty for errors greater than say 5. I know their employers wouldnt want this as it would likely actually separate the "good ones", from the "good looking ones". Why is it that some professionals don't want to be evaluated for performance??

Edited by sonoranfans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
jasons

Bastardi tries to use pattern recognition, teleconnections, and forecast analogs to make his predictions. He rarely makes true forecasts (with numbers) out in public, it's usually just a commentary of "predictions". His forecasts are limited to seasonal projections and sometimes he'll toss out actual numbers for a hurricane. He leans towards the Euro model and spends a fair amount of time bashing the GFS and its known biases. He can be entertaining and at times pick out a pattern before few others notice. At the same time, sometimes his enthusiasm for extreme weather events leads to him overhyping things.

Ray - the Accuweather.com weather forecast is just a computer-generated grid version run from the models, probably the GFS. That would easily explain why it's always colder in the long range, especially in winter. Any of those __.com forecasts are just computer numbers. The NWS is the only 7-day forecast with real thought put into them, unless you happen to have an extremely good local TV met you can trust. Not a "weatherman", but a degreed met (like Paul Dellegatto for my FL readers :-)

Edited by jasons

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Now we're done.

As I assumed this was the case, I was out planting last weekend!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PalmatierMeg

Yay! I actually planted 4 Chamaedoreas & a Rhapis Tuesday. Next couple nights will be in mid-40s but the only palms I pull inside are the lipsticks. But not for long I hope. This weekend I plan to do some trimming/cleanup. Bring it on!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BS Man about Palms

Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?.... :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

Started planting last weekend, its over. The gulf has warmed up a bit and it will warm incoming fronts. All the rain has been a real fungus generator, the january total was 3x normal rainfall and its continuing on. Once the rain stops for a few days, we will be hitting high 70's and low 80's. Lows have been mostly 50's with a 43 throw in in when the last front came through.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?.... :(

I suppose that was possible.

I checked my stations data for March 2010 and did see 3 nights in a row around 40F (March 5,6,7 at 40, 40, 39F).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?.... :(

I suppose that was possible.

I checked my stations data for March 2010 and did see 3 nights in a row around 40F (March 5,6,7 at 40, 40, 39F).

Same here march 5-7 40-39. But those kind of temps wont cause a damaging frost even if it does frost it will melt immediately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

No 30's in my garden last March.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?....

No you didn't Bill and if you did, Jeff will deny it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

No 30's in my garden last March.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?....

No you didn't Bill and if you did, Jeff will deny it.

Hey Ray,

I heard Bill had his fill of spirits during his visit to Jeffs garden :lol: , I think he saw lots of things....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Eric in Orlando

10 day forecast looks great, upper 70s to mid 80s !!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
redant

I'm not planting until the end of Feb and see a nice 10 day forecast for March. I had significant frost last March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Eric in Orlando

I'm not planting until the end of Feb and see a nice 10 day forecast for March. I had significant frost last March.

I wait until mid March to plant tender species. in 1980 it was about March 2/3 that Orlando hit 25F !

Frost last March ??? I looked up our weather database and the coldest here was 40F on 3/6/2010 and 3/7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

I'm not planting until the end of Feb and see a nice 10 day forecast for March. I had significant frost last March.

I wait until mid March to plant tender species. in 1980 it was about March 2/3 that Orlando hit 25F !

Frost last March ??? I looked up our weather database and the coldest here was 40F on 3/6/2010 and 3/7

I think its over, finally. Our average last frost date is the 25th. Looking out on the 10 day forecast, it is smooth sailing. Of course that number is average, but I just got a feeling it it done.

Now, let's give it a couple of months, and then start complaining about the heat, lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SunnyFl

stick a fork in it - winter's done.

Hi all - it's so beautiful out, wish I could go out and catch up on the gardening chores (too sick), but maybe next weekend.

Recap: some of our crotons in the ground got a beating again this year. I don't think there were any fatal losses but a few look really bad.

Dypsis lutescens (my only remaining one) made it through this winter with only a few toasted fronds. Glaucas, roebs, and morrissiis are fine, no problems. As are purpureas, albofarinosas, teddy-bear etc. I did have totally fried leaves on my ice-cream banana (in a container with northern exposure), but it's leafing out fine. The cordies are still recovering from severe lubber damage last summer.

I think our bottle palm survived unprotected this winter, too early to tell, but it doesn't look too bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
palmsOrl

Looking at the forecast, I am so tempted to take my large Cyrtostachys renda out of the greenhouse for the year (it is looking spectacular, and I want to be able to actually see it). I usually wait until mid-late March but maybe I can just put a heat lamp on it if we have a few nights in the low 40s in March?

-Michael

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SubTropicRay

I closed the freeze book on February 20th and started fertilizing. Before the March 1980 freeze, you've got to go back another 40 years for a March event so that's definitely an anomaly with which I'm willing to take chances.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gsytch

Yes, on the 3rd/4th of March we got a last cold snap. There was the lightest hint of frost here in my open back at 34.7f (according to my records) but the afternoon hit 64f, then 37f the following night and 70f the following day. Very dry air. Therefore, those that saw frost it was a radiational frost. However, there was NO damage that I recall because it only briefly dipped both nights. This stretch of weather has been unreal! It has been perfect here. 70's with endless sunshine since.....a week ago at least, and a wake up of 66f this morning under heavy fog which burnt off (at school) by 10am. Nice breezes. The plants are JUMPING! All of them, and new palm fronds galore. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sonoranfans

I got a pretty good head start, started planting jan 28th and continuing. 66F low this morning 83F today just like the last 3-4 days, hits low 80's every day, overnight lows in the low to mid 60's. The gulf water and tampa bay are heating up, which at 3-4 miles away should protect against a cold northwest intrusion. Fronds are popping open, angel trumpets are blooming, everything is happy.... :D But lessons have been learned: canopy and wind breaks must be attended to. I fertilized the lived oaks, spiked them, planted a couple livistona decora for protection, and bought some weeping yaupon holly to break some wind.

Edited by sonoranfans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...