Bad news then good news

[SubTropicRay]

The week after Christmas has the potential to be very bad as I'd mentioned earlier.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=tbw&storyid=61334&source=0

At least we'll be able to admire the carnage of mother nature's fury in the warm sunshine.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43166/warmer-days-may-lie-ahead-for.asp

[spockvr6]

Marvelous

[Mark Heath]

Great, just great! You hit the nail on the head last time Ray,, here's hoping you're wrong this time!!

[Moose]

Ray - at least your Medemia will look good!

[Tampa Scott]

I guess the year will end as it started.

[SubTropicRay]

Very bad NWS discussion chatter. This has the sounds of a severe killing freeze.

NWS Tampa Bay

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS ARE

TRENDING COLDER AND COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...AND

WHILE WE HAVEN`T GONE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY

INDICATING...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

NWS Miami

THICKNESS VALUES FOR THIS EVENT ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1300 LAKE REGION TO

1315 DOWN IN MIAMI FOR MONDAY MORNING AND ABOUT THE SAME FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

THESE VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST COLD EPISODE WE HAD ABOUT A WEEK

AGO. SHOULD THEY VERIFY, TEMPS COULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS

INDICATING. AT THIS TIME WL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS, BUT FORECAST WILL BE

FINE TUNED ASWE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN, LAST WEEK OF

THE YEAR IS GOING TO BE COLD.

NWS Melborune

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER...SO AFTER A

MILD CHRISTMAS DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...READINGS WILL

FALL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S SUNDAY MORNING WITH

DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE WINDY

ON SUNDAY TOO SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE

EARLY MORNING.

MON-TUE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY PROVIDES

A STOUT NORTHWEST/NORTH WIND FLOW. THE 00Z MEX GUIDANCE HAS

TRENDED COLDER WITH LOW-MID 30S INDICATED BOTH MORNINGS IN SOME

AREAS...SO ANOTHER ADVECTION FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW

WIND CHILL VALUES.

NWS Jacksonville

LONG TERM...NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS

DAY. MODELS BOMB SFC LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SAT.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE

LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THIS...WHILE THE LATEST GFS BEGINS TO DEVELOP

SFC LOW OVER THE S APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP

COVERAGE. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE

FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN-TUE

WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

NWS Tallahassee

AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF. LOOK FOR A WIDESPREAD COLD

ADVECTION LIGHT FREEZE SAT NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN AND MON WILL ONLY BE IN

THE UPPER40S N AND LOWER 50S S WITH PLENTY OF COOL BREEZES. WIND CHILL

ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS TIME. A HARD FREEZE LOOKS

LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE MORNINGS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN

INCONSISTENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND TEMPS

COULD CERTAINLY GET COLDER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

[Pez]

Very bad NWS discussion chatter. This has the sounds of a severe killing freeze.

NWS Tampa Bay

“AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS ARE

TRENDING COLDER AND COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...AND

WHILE WE HAVEN`T GONE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY

INDICATING...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.”

NWS Miami

“THICKNESS VALUES FOR THIS EVENT ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1300 LAKE REGION TO

1315 DOWN IN MIAMI FOR MONDAY MORNING AND ABOUT THE SAME FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

THESE VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST COLD EPISODE WE HAD ABOUT A WEEK

AGO. SHOULD THEY VERIFY, TEMPS COULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS

INDICATING. AT THIS TIME WL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS, BUT FORECAST WILL BE

FINE TUNED ASWE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN, LAST WEEK OF

THE YEAR IS GOING TO BE COLD.”

NWS Melborune

“THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER...SO AFTER A

MILD CHRISTMAS DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...READINGS WILL

FALL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S SUNDAY MORNING WITH

DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE WINDY

ON SUNDAY TOO SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE

EARLY MORNING.

MON-TUE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY PROVIDES

A STOUT NORTHWEST/NORTH WIND FLOW. THE 00Z MEX GUIDANCE HAS

TRENDED COLDER WITH LOW-MID 30S INDICATED BOTH MORNINGS IN SOME

AREAS...SO ANOTHER ADVECTION FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW

WIND CHILL VALUES.”

NWS Jacksonville

“LONG TERM...NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS

DAY. MODELS BOMB SFC LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SAT.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE

LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THIS...WHILE THE LATEST GFS BEGINS TO DEVELOP

SFC LOW OVER THE S APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP

COVERAGE. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE

FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN-TUE

WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.”

NWS Tallahassee

“AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF. LOOK FOR A WIDESPREAD COLD

ADVECTION LIGHT FREEZE SAT NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN AND MON WILL ONLY BE IN

THE UPPER40S N AND LOWER 50S S WITH PLENTY OF COOL BREEZES. WIND CHILL

ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS TIME. A HARD FREEZE LOOKS

LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE MORNINGS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN

INCONSISTENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND TEMPS

COULD CERTAINLY GET COLDER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.”

I know your not supposed to kill the messenger, but I'm starting to dislike you.

[SubTropicRay]

Sorry but someone has to do this here. Believe me, I hate having to post this crap.

[Moose]

Sorry but someone has to do this here. Believe me, I hate having to post this crap.

Actually I appreciate the post, did not know it was going to be worse. Got to get a game plan going.

[SubTropicRay]

This event is now only 4 days out and the GFS model numbers are several degrees warmer this morning. Either we're looking at a better scenario or this model is struggling with how "cold" the air is or isn't.

[Tampa Scott]

Trending in the right direction for now.

[koolthing78]

Ssshhhhh, let's not jinx it. Just keep talking about how cold it's going to be and how everything's going to die. (Sheesh, doesn't anyone know how this works? )

[gsytch]

Forecasts are all over the place for now. I have seen low to mid 30's for my place (better than....) to near 40F with chilly daytimes all the way to 28F morning on Tues. One more ARCTIC FREEZE event and we should see daylight! The low appears heading further south than expected so Atlanta may have a white christmas! I do not know if more south is good for us or not.

[PalmatierMeg]

As of noon, predicted lows for Tues and Wed a.m. respectively are 36 & 37. I'm so tired of this.

[SubTropicRay]

Ssshhhhh, let's not jinx it. Just keep talking about how cold it's going to be and how everything's going to die. (Sheesh, doesn't anyone know how this works? )

This will be catastrophic with even palms killed last January being allowed to die again. Hey, it's still three days away. We could go for that 1983 Christmas weekend 20, 19 and then a toasty warm 28F. Your typical three Florida days.

[koolthing78]

Ssshhhhh, let's not jinx it. Just keep talking about how cold it's going to be and how everything's going to die. (Sheesh, doesn't anyone know how this works? )

This will be catastrophic with even palms killed last January being allowed to die again. Hey, it's still three days away. We could go for that 1983 Christmas weekend 20, 19 and then a toasty warm 28F. Your typical three Florida days.

That's how it's done