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Tyrone

Summer in the south (and winter in the north)

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ariscott

it rained yesterday everywhere but here :( . At this rate, I have to turn on the watering at least on the shadehouse....

Regards, Ari :)

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ariscott

Raining raining everywhere.... over 115mm in the past 24 hours!!! :D:D

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Tyrone

Hot hot hot here. Haven't seen below 30C in ages. 34C today, 33C the day before, 35C tomorrow, thunderstorms and in the 30's after that. Good temps lately but rain will make it better.

Best regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

Still wet this morning.... The low is really dumping some rain!!!!! Over 100mm again last night, I am sure....

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Tyrone

That's some good non disasterous rain Ari.

It looks like we'll have a cyclone south of NW Cape again on Fri/Sat. One model has it going inland around Onslow. The BOM has it still out to sea near Carnarvon north of Shark Bay by Friday night moving south parallel to the coast . The difference between this situation and TC Bianca that nearly got us, is the high south of it is relatively weak at only 1016hPa, so that could mean less shear this time. I hope it dumps some serious rain here.

Best regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

Yep... and one brewing on top of us as we speak... hence all the rain. 145mm last night and at least 70mm on the gauge now... It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow....

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tropicbreeze

Ari, are you getting the wind now? You're a bit more open than me, I've got lots of trees and am only getting gusts around 20kph. Right on the coast it's getting a bit savage, and the low hasn't even moved off the coast yet. Told them at work I was coming home.

The lowlands south of Adelaide River looked real impressive, water as far as you could see in some places. The Adelaide River was really high but still has a bit to go to reach the bridge. A lot of flood water over Townend Rd and Redcliffe Rd. And my road is under water most of the way to my place. In the last 24 hours I've had 197.4 mm rain. Too dark now to go down and check my creek, just hoping during the night it doesn't come up to check me out. :unsure:

Tomorrow we might have Carlos on our doorstep. Are you going to stay at home if it comes to it, or go to one of the shelters?

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ariscott

Are you reading NAC, Zig? Trees are down everywhere in town. And yes... it is quite gusty here, pity we don't have a working weather station to see the wind gust. It just picked up again after half an hour of quiet.

Giraween road is cut off, not sure about Pioneer Drive. I guess I can always go out Arhnem highway if I have to. I am going to get some diesel tomorrow for the 4WD, just in case the road is too flooded to get the Mazda out. Just to be safe than sorry.... foodwise, we have plenty...should be ok. Unfortunately never got around to buy a generator. We always manage to find other priority to spend our money on.

Tomorrow bright & early, I will move my seedlings from under the shed to the shadehouse. I think they have better chance of surviving with the other seedlings. Either they make it or they won't. Way too many of them to put them inside... So, hope for the best. Helen left my shadehouse intact, so I was hoping Carlos would do the same.

Our house should be ok for Cat 2, so we shouldn't need to go anywhere. Do you need to go somewhere? Is your house coded? Let me know if you need to somewhere to stay... Good luck!!! So far it is far windier than Helen...

Regards, Ari :)

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Tyrone

All the best Ari and Zig. The BOM is only saying your system will reach cat 1 when over the sea. Still the flooding will cause havoc. 25C max tomorrow for Darwin. You don't often see that.

The system off the WA coast is tipped to reach cat 4 on Thursday night and move parallel with the lower west coast approaching the coast north of Perth Sunday night according to this.

http://www.bom.gov.a...wer/index.shtml

These maps were dead on accurate when Bianca came through. If it's accurate for this system we may wear a cat 1 or more directly over Perth as they're predicting a 989hPa central pressure and rainfall rates of 100mm/6hr period on Sunday night. Bianca may have been a warning. Nothing's cyclone coded down here. I'm going to clean the gutters late tomorrow. It's forecast to be 37C and humid tomorrow. It was around 38C today. Too hot to do in the middle of the day. I really want the rain and would even love some flooding though not enough to damage things. I don't want the wind.

SST's are 26C down to around 31S and 28C down to around 29S. So that's 26C water within approx 100km of Perth. If it tracks over that spit of warm water it could stay a cyclone for a long while. Also after it crosses the coast it is meant to move westward back over the sea right to the west of Perth and stay there as a low. Real weird pattern.

Best regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

It has upgraded to cat 2, Tyrone, accordind to the track map. One of the model actually have it as cat 3 and hang around for 4 days. II have no power and my phone is dying. So I have to plug it in the car before it gets hairier.

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tropicbreeze

Ari my power is down this morning but the phone lines are still okay so far. I've been following NAC, following the BOM data, following GFS, following EC, and looking from my verandah. It's all saying the same thing, it's wet and windy out there!

Airport closed last night, schools are closed today, non essential public servants have been told to stay home, people have been told to keep off roads unless absolutely essential. There's trees down all over the place and flooding in many areas. Not sure if I might be cut off already. Should have got my fuel when I drove in last night. Brought some food with me, although doing a fast for a few days wouldn't go astray.

The airport has had 434 mm rain in past 19 hours. And the rain keeps coming down. The low is edging off the coast now, so the 'fun and games' hasn't even started yet but "COMING TO A WINDOW NEAR YOU SOON!".

I still didn't get around getting a generator, have been looking over the past couple of months and have been debating over diesel or petrol. Might be academic shortly. My house is definitely okay to Cat 2, but I reckon above that as well. My big worry is all the huge trees I have, very old tall African Mahoganys. With all the rain the ground is turning to mush. But I intend on staying put the way it's evolving so far.

Tyrone, you need to look at all the data.

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Tyrone

Zig the BOM has changed it's outlook since I was on last night. Definite cat 2 and hanging around your area for a good while is their prediction so you're going to get a lot of rain and wind. All the best guys. I hope you don't get any damage. I'll be watching the system closely. The BOM seems to be changing it's mind a bit how these things will go in the next 48 hrs. Difficult to predict accurately these sort of things.

Best regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

Phone & electricity back on for now... charging my mobile just in case it goes kaput again. We did last minute clean up this morning and put everything that we can inside the shed. I guess we shall see what happens today.

Did you see GFS model, Zig??? I hope that won't eventuate!! BTW, only had 1/4 tank of diesel on my 4WD - we probably can only drive that out, as the roads are flooded. It should be ok, as I am not looking forward to go out there looking for fuels. Foodwise, we should be ok too... our neighbour has a generator, so if everything goes pearshape & we loose power for a few days, I can go knocking on her door, hopefully I can put my food in her fridge.

It is actually loosing intensity at the moment.... as it goes inland?? The story with cyclone in this part of Australia, pretty unpredictable!!

Zig, yell out if you need a hand!!

Regards, Ari :)

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tropicbreeze

Power's still off. And my lighter socket in the car is shorting, can't use the inverter to charge the computer battery. At friends place just now getting it recharged. Have to wire up direct to the car battery later in case it turns bad and I can't get out.

Went to the shops in Humpty Doo, most closed but Woolies is open on emergency power. Fueled up at United, big queues, they've enough power to run a few bowsers but not the Eftpost machine, has to be cash.

Pressure is dropping rapidly, a short while ago at my place was 997.5 hPa. But the rain has eased a lot, although not stopped. My main access to the highway is cut by the Elizabeth River, 0.8 and flowing very rapidly. Even though I've got high clearance 4WD, at the speed of that flow you wouldn't do it at 0.4. The back road north is still okay but some water. The back road south is cut in a few places, in an emergency probably possible. But at least I still have one way out. The ground at my place is mush but touch wood nothing has gone down other than branches and palm fronds. All those would have probably gone down in the next few weeks anyway.

When the computer battery is charged up I'll head home and then wire up my inverter. Hopefully Carlos won't get far off the coast and be restricted in development. If it does break away from the coast, there's a lot of very warm water out there, and we'll be in "deep doo" . So fingers crossed, because the models and the bureau don't really have any idea where this is going.

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ariscott

Carlos is reorganising, Zig. Round 2 is about to start again.... I bet you the eye is right on top of us. Calm as anything here at the moment.... no rain & no wind.

I didn't end up going out to get fuel. Can't be bothered fighting people off. 1/4 of a tank should be able to get us out if needs be. Although, everything should be ok (touch wood). You know where we live if you need a hand. We will be here...

Regards, Ari :)

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tropicbreeze

Ari, pressure has dropped to 993.4 hPa here. If the eye is over you then your pressure will be lower. Winds at home are only 10 kph now and the rain very light and steady, only 6.4 mm from 9am to 3pm, as compared to 62.2 mm from midnight to 9am. That's nearly drought conditions, LOL. The winds must be a lot stronger higher up because there's a lot of Mahogany leaves on the ground. The trees must be shielding my weather station, same as they're doing for my house.

Looks like Carlos is reluctant to go right out over the sea, most of it is still over land. Lets hope that ridge to the south weakens and lets it slip southwards. If it gets out into open water it has the potential to turn into something massive. Dropping south will expose us to the heavy rain in its northern sector again. I can cope with the rain but I don't want the wind. They're warning of daily falls of over 200mm continuing to Saturday at least.

I filled the two tanks, main and sub, in the car so have about 150 litres of diesel there. Also have my spare jerry can (20 litres) of diesel for the tractor. So if you need any there's plenty to spare.

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ariscott

Weather station has died.... so no pressure reading :angry: . Rain here, no wind... so it is all good so far.

We should be right with diesel. Thanks for the offer though...

Edited by ariscott

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Tyrone

Ari and Zig. I hope it stays over land for you guys and you don't get any adverse situations happening. Kind of scary having a cyclone roaming the countryside aimlessly with warm water not far away. It looks like a well organised structure on the radar.

Best regards

Tyrone

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tropicbreeze

Tyrone, it surprises me that it's been mostly over land but still strengthened to cyclone status. On the latest bulletin it gives it as "Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS". A cyclone coming in off the sea you'd expect to carry a bit of strength with it. But this thing hasn't been out to sea. That's why it's so scary if it does get out there.

The track map hasn't been changed but they're advising over the radio that Carlos will now move off the coast during tonight, intensify to Cat 2, then in the morning swing back over Darwin. But they just don't seem to know what it's going to do. Seems as though there's no steering and it's just drifting to and fro. It's the most difficult area in the world for predicting cyclones, and I reckon this is a classic case of it.

The rain and wind set in again. My weather station still hasn't recorded anything over 20 kph (well, a 20.9 yesterday), but Noonamah AWS has recorded 50's. The ground is covered with Mahogany and bamboo leaves. So I've still got an effective wind break. Some large green Mahogany branches have come down, probably twisted by the wind. There's a big row of coconuts that's more exposed but they'll be laughing this off. Previously all the rain was in the northern quadrants but a while back the bands started to wrap right around the eye.

Pressure is increasing, up to 995.7 hPa, maybe a sign that Carlos is heading up towards the coast again. RH hasn't gone below 93% for 2 days now. Got the fans flat out day and night but the mustiness just keeps increasing. Another couple of days and we'll all be going mouldy as well.

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Tyrone

Will be watching Carlos closely.

Been blimmin hot here. 39C today after a min of 25C. At 8pm it was 30C with dewpoints of 20C, but now it's gone up to 31C and the dewpoint has dropped. Just was watching TV in the loungeroom with the blinds open and was watching a ripper of an electrical storm over the hills. Sometimes a flash of fork lightening every 5 to 10 seconds. There is a severe thunderstorm warning tonight for flooding, hail and wind gusts to 110kph. I think we'll miss out actually. It doesn't look like the cyclone off the Pilbara coast will make it down here now. The computer model has it going inland around Shark Bay, but they're still forecasting thunderstorms and rain from Sunday for a few days. I personally don't think they know this far out.

Very hard to predict Carlos. The coastline up there in the NT is all kind of random. Bays and inlets everywhere.

Best regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

Carlos has been doing his own thing the whole day now... I think it has been pretty much stationary the whole day. And nobody really knows where it was... not even BOM, if you ask me. So, I am just going to let him do his own thing... Another day off tomorrow with work & school. Things won't go back to normal until the cyclone warning is lifted.

Wind & rain have started again after mist the whole day.... I guess we shall see where he would end up in the morning.... Bugger of a cyclone this one!!

Regards, Ari :)

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Tyrone

TC Diane has formed off the Pilbara coast central pressure 986hPa and is stationary. I think Carlos and Diane are linked somehow. Predicted to become a severe cyclone within 36 hrs and move south.

Stay safe Ari and Zig.

Best regards

Tyrone

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tropicbreeze

It's getting quite wild now. My weather station is recording winds consistently 43.5 kph but the tree tops are really thrashing around. The trees are still managing to be a wind break. Noonamah AWS is up to 67 kph. Something just came crashing down, either a complete Mahogany further away or part of one closer. Can't make it out with the torch and I'm not going out since it's pouring and rain isn't the only thing falling out of the sky.

Pressure went up to 996.9 hPa but has dropped back to 995.1 hPa. It's been yo-yoing a bit. It's hard to second guess where Carlos is. BOM advises one position, radar indicates another, and the track map has something different again. Looks like we still have another 2 days of this to go.

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tropicbreeze

Looks like it's just beside me, looking at the radar and doppler. The weather bureau notes: "Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]". Hope that's not right, I don't want this thing sitting beside me all night, or what's left of the night. The maximum rain is enveloping Noonamah now, seems to be easing a bit around Ari. 43.8 mm in the last 3 hours but the heaviest is moving in. I'm about 100 mm off my record maximum month of rainfall, January last year, and there's still about 12 days of the month to go. Boy, the rain gauge on my weather station has really had to earn its keep this past week. All in all though, touch wood, this seems to have been relatively easy on me, so far. But anyway, come morning I'll be able to see what's come down around the place, which hopefully won't be much..

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ariscott

I am sure it went pass us last night... it was ROUGH!!! So, I am not surprised it it was beside you, Zig.... I think it is over for Carlos for us. Everything needs to dry out...

Regards, Ari :)

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tropicbreeze

Ari, how'd you go, any damage? All in all I came out of it well, though not untouched. Still gusty wind and occasional sprinkles of rain but brief flickers of sunshine here now and again. Waded around through water and slush and took a few photos.

None of the trees along the driveway went down, only the usual branches

post-4226-041622600 1297917692_thumb.jpg

The big thud last night was one of my large Mahoganys, was 26 metres high, now 26 metres long. My neighbour heard it come down from a couple of hundred metres away over the noise of the wind and rain. He came over today to check if I was still alive. On its way down it ground down two Mangos but just missed a 3 metre Cycad.

post-4226-077563200 1297917785_thumb.jpg

A Casuarina came down but it was dead already. Other trees propped it up stopping it from crushing a Hydriastele wendlandiana and Calyptrocalyx hollrungii (plus a few others).

post-4226-039144600 1297917868_thumb.jpg

Other smaller branches hit the Hydriastele wendlandiana but didn't break it.

post-4226-037406800 1297917939_thumb.jpg

Most of the rest of the gardens were only littered with branches and debris.

post-4226-014640300 1297917994_thumb.jpg

Some of the Amorphophallus didn't come off so well, the wind actually snapped the stem of one. One was lifted out of a pot, leaves must have acted as a parachute as the pot was still standing upright.

So, it's more nuisance really, time that could have been better devoted to other things. Anyway, end of news bulletin, now back to work!

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ariscott

so far so good, Zig.... The perfect cyclone, Scott called him.... dumping heaps of rain & not much wind... The dam is full & beautiful to swim in. Are you home for the weekend? Should stop over for a beer or two

Regards, Ari :)

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Tyrone

Now that's the way I like to hear a cyclone experience end. :D

Best regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

Yes... Tyrone, not very often that happens unfortunately.... BTW, you are welcome to stop over for a beer if you feel like doing a drive... :winkie:

Regards, Ari :)

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ariscott

This is what happens when Carlos visit.... I love our dam when it is full!!! Luckily, we only got half the amount that Darwin northern suburbs & city got - which is plenty for us.

post-512-024600400 1297937244_thumb.jpg

Regards, Ari :)

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Miccles

Now THAT'S a great sight Ari !!!! Perfect ! :)

Regards

Michael

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Tyrone

Yes... Tyrone, not very often that happens unfortunately.... BTW, you are welcome to stop over for a beer if you feel like doing a drive... :winkie:

Regards, Ari :)

I'll start driving now. I'll see you Sunday night. :D

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Miccles

VICTORIANS have battled through the wettest summer on record.

The state has already received about 290mm of rainfall since the start of December, with still two weeks of summer to go.

The record was 237mm, reached in the summer of 1910-1911.

"It's almost like we're in the tropics," meteorologist Harvey Stern said.

"You get the very high humidities, not that high temperatures and the night times are warmer than usual."

Mr Stern said heavy rainfalls through December and January had tipped the scales.

"We had the fifth wettest December on record, followed by the wettest January ever on record.

"Now in February we're looking at extremely wet conditions once again."

While the rain has been good news for catchments, torrential downpours through January were responsible for the some of the worst flooding in history.

Mr Stern said the wild weather had been caused by one of the strongest La Nina events ever experienced.

"We've had a lot of extra moisture in the air and the warmer temperatures in the oceans," he said.

"That's also partly the reason for the cyclone activity in the north."

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tropicbreeze

Tyrone expect some strong headwinds and heavy rain along the way. Would recommend some buoyancy tanks for the car and a good set of oars for some sections.

GFS has Dianne continuing out from the coast but bringing strong winds to the Northwest Cape area about Saturday 19th. But from there they expect it be further off the coast and round the south west, coming into the Bight without contacting land.

Carlos is still only about 150 kms from Darwin and still delivering heavy falls. GFS has it crossing the Kimberley and then straddling the coast at Broome late Monday 21st. Then they expect it to continue straddling the coast down to around Port Hedland by Wednesday 23rd and Northwest Cape by Thursday 24th.

By late Friday 25th they expect it to be just off the coast near Denham and winds 50 to 55 knots (Cat 1?). GFS can be good at times, but it can also get it wrong.

Anyway, that's the latest model run, need to check again over the next couple of days to see what they have it doing nearer Perth. You'd expect it to recurve towards land again by the time it reaches Perth's latitude. So perhaps some of the rain we've been getting? My total past 5 days up to 9am today is 470.8mm. But I spent a lot of time is Carlos' southern quandrants where the rain was lighter. Ari's total would be a lot higher. And parts of Darwin got more than double my total. So start building your ark, and remember, only 2 of each kind of plant. :winkie:

Ari, surely you're not going swimming in this weather! It's been freezing, that water would only be 24C at most. You'll need more than a week of sun on it to bring it up to a reasonable temperature. I'll have to get back to work, there's only 2 of us on for the weekend and we've our own problems down there. Besides, there's not a lot I can do here. Can't drive anywhere on the block, even the driveway is getting soft in places. And have to borrow one of the big chainsaws from work to get through that Mahogany.

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ariscott

Working on the weekend.... that is annoying... Oh well, next time.

The kids didn't care whether the water is freezing!! LOL. Scott & the kids swam in the dam... I was quite happy looking at and taking pics of them. BTW, I only got around 470 as well... didn't I tell you that my property is the land of drought?? LOL. I am sure where Scott has my rain gauge is sheltered from the wind by my palms, if the rain comes from the north... but he is not moving it!!! I would rather he puts in the middle of the paddock. Before next wet season, we are getting another weather station.... What is yours?

Tyrone,

It would be nice if Dianne can dump a bit of rain for you.

Regards, Ari :)

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tropicbreeze

Ari, I have to keep them on side if I want to borrow that chainsaw. Besides, it's been raining steadily all day. And Carlos will probably be in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf soon and re-intensifying. When it does it's going to be flinging wild and woolley rain bands at us again. All I'll be able to do is stay inside and, God forbid, do housework. I'd rather be at work!

I've got to check the road reports to see if I can get back. Apparently the Stuart Hwy at Adelaide River is okay again. Don't know about the Kakadu Hwy yet.

You only got 470. You were also in the southern quadrants most of the time but I thought I saw you sneaking in a few extra rain bands while you thought I wasn't watching :winkie: . Kids never feel the cold, Scott's probably just a big kid. :D

By the way, doesn't your first post at the top of this page look strange now.

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tropicbreeze

Sorry, forgot. Mine's a Davis Vantage Pro2. Wireless. So it's out in the paddock and the console back at the house. It's sort of in the most open area so the rain reading is okay but the large trees block a lot of the wind, particularly the sides cyclones come in from. But I look at it as an indicator of what the ground conditions are at my place, I can look at the Noonamah AWS for what the overall exposed conditions are.

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ariscott

Hhmm.... can't justify Davis :unsure: . We have what you call them.... kids... lol. Although A$ is so high this year.... tempted...

Well, my first post was during the drought condition...lol.

Regards, Ari :)

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tropicbreeze

Ari, you can have a look at my manuals and see what you think of it. The wireless can operate to 300 metres line of sight. You could put the station well away from where the ...... what you call them ........ kids hang around and up on a pole. I've had mine a couple of years and am pretty happy with it. Didn't calibrate the anemometer so just don't have accurate wind direction. But all the trees would distort that reading anyway.

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