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happ

Huge Storm on the Horizon?

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happ

It is still several days away but worth noting that a significant change in the pattern for California is starting today with strong onshore flow of clouds and much cooler temps. But the big story is the formation of a massive storm system that "may" give us abundant rainfall out of the tropics starting late in the week and continuing into next week. Here's a segment of the NWS_LA discussion:

..LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ON FRIDAY A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SETS UP ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF SEATTLE. THIS LOW THEN SPINS AND WOBBLES AROUND FOR ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW FIRST TAPS INTO A 3000 MILE LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE RUNNING ALONG 30 NORTH LATITUDE AND WHEN THAT PLUME HAS BEEN EXHAUSTED BY MONDAY MORNING IT TAPS INTO ANOTHER 3000 MILE LONG MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING AROUND 15 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. AT THE MOMENT THE GFS AND THE EC AGREE THAT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF STORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. BEFORE WE ALL START BUILDING ARKS WE HAVE TO REALIZE THAT A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OF THE FLOW TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH WILL DRAMATICALLY CURTAIL THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT WHEN THE GFS FORECAST A TENTH OF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN AS IT IS NOW WITH THE CURRENT RUN. STILL THIS COULD BE A MAJOR STORM EVENT AND EVERYONE IN THE SOUTHLAND NEEDS TO PAY ATTENTION AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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paulgila

i was impressed by how scientific it all appeared until i got to the part about building "arks." :rolleyes:

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happ

Southern California weather nerds are all getting into the act but one factor has to be considered if this event is going to produce rainfall. Unfortunately the models seem to favor northern California for the bulk of the moisture however there continues to be variation in each run depending on the computer model. It looks like heights [air pressure\ air thicknesses] may be too high south of Pt Conception, steering the moisture northward. So it could end up being an insignificant storm for southern California but abundant precipitation in central\ northern California. Keep our fingers crossed! ;)

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Jim in Los Altos

We're bracing, here in the SF Bay Area, for copious amounts of rain this weekend and beyond. This zonal flow looks to be focusing on N.Central CA at the time being so we could get slammed. Hope for the sake of you guys in So Cal that some of this rain reaches your areas so we can "share in the wealth".

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happ

We're bracing, here in the SF Bay Area, for copious amounts of rain this weekend and beyond. This zonal flow looks to be focusing on N.Central CA at the time being so we could get slammed. Hope for the sake of you guys in So Cal that some of this rain reaches your areas so we can "share in the wealth".

Thanks for the good wishes that southern California gets in on the rainfall but the trend in the forecast seems to be less favorable down here though extremely wet up your way, Jim. In-fact the NWS_Monterey is forecasting up to 15 inches over the duration of this 5 day wet period for sections of central California. :mrlooney: It seems every winter we wait and watch hoping that one of the storms will really pan out for southern California but in reality often maybe 5 storms a year on average actually produce good amounts of precipitation. I guess we should be happy that the snow pack in the Sierra will be picking up some incredible snowfall that translates into water for California later in the year.

I am still hopeful that a few inches of rain will also fall in southern California and believe it is too early to rule us out at this point.

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happ

Hate to do yo-yo back and forth forecasting but with every run of the models things change; however all the models are now agreeing that some really good amounts of rain will fall over all of California and some very significant totals for northern California. If this materializes then it will really help fill up the reservoirs! B)

Here's a recent rain total prediction:

Therefore, the 168 hour rainfall totals from tomorrow through next Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010 should be as follows for some California Cities:

Red Bluff: 16.78”

San José: 6.78”

San Francisco: 10.23”

Santa Rosa: 14.29”

Santa Cruz: 16.89”

Sacramento: 7.17”

Paso Robles: 5.78”

San Luis Obispo: 9.78”

Santa Maria: 8.22”

Santa Bárbara: 9.45”

Oxnard: 7.67”

Woodland Hills: 7.35”

North Hollywood: 8.34”

Burbank: 6.89”

Los Angeles USC: 5.86”

Long Beach: 4.56”

San Diego: 2.75”

Palm Springs: 1.19”

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MattyB

come on 2.75" baby, daddy needs a new ravenea rivularis

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epicure3

Hate to do yo-yo back and forth forecasting but with every run of the models things change; however all the models are now agreeing that some really good amounts of rain will fall over all of California and some very significant totals for northern California. If this materializes then it will really help fill up the reservoirs! B)

Here's a recent rain total prediction:

Therefore, the 168 hour rainfall totals from tomorrow through next Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010 should be as follows for some California Cities:

Red Bluff: 16.78”

San José: 6.78”

San Francisco: 10.23”

Santa Rosa: 14.29”

Santa Cruz: 16.89”

Sacramento: 7.17”

Paso Robles: 5.78”

San Luis Obispo: 9.78”

Santa Maria: 8.22”

Santa Bárbara: 9.45”

Oxnard: 7.67”

Woodland Hills: 7.35”

North Hollywood: 8.34”

Burbank: 6.89”

Los Angeles USC: 5.86”

Long Beach: 4.56”

San Diego: 2.75”

Palm Springs: 1.19”

Keep in mind that these numbers are not set in stone. The NWS' SD offices'latest discussion shows about an inch to an inch and a half through next Wednesday.

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_Keith

So interesting to see the difference in rainfall attitudes. Down here, we don't even think of a single thunderstorm as severe unless it drops 3 or 4 inches of rain in an hour. And that is a multiple times a year occurance. Good luck guys, I hope you all get just the amount of rain you want.

Keith

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Dypsisdean

So interesting to see the difference in rainfall attitudes. Down here, we don't even think of a single thunderstorm as severe unless it drops 3 or 4 inches of rain in an hour. And that is a multiple times a year occurance. Good luck guys, I hope you all get just the amount of rain you want.

Keith

Keith,

I think the difference in attitude is equal to the difference in topography. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Louisiana has many mountain ranges. In California you have hundreds of miles of mountains from 4000-6000 ft and higher. When the rains hit those mountains (sometimes 2 to 3 times the amount falls than at the lower elevations), and all of it runs off while concentrating in the ravines and canyons, the flooding can get dangerous and severe - not to mention the landslide danger.

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_Keith

So interesting to see the difference in rainfall attitudes. Down here, we don't even think of a single thunderstorm as severe unless it drops 3 or 4 inches of rain in an hour. And that is a multiple times a year occurance. Good luck guys, I hope you all get just the amount of rain you want.

Keith

Keith,

I think the difference in attitude is equal to the difference in topography. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Louisiana has many mountain ranges. In California you have hundreds of miles of mountains from 4000-6000 ft and higher. When the rains hit those mountains (sometimes 2 to 3 times the amount falls than at the lower elevations), and all of it runs off while concentrating in the ravines and canyons, the flooding can get dangerous and severe - not to mention the landslide danger.

You are correct Dean, and I do realize that. We do have flash flooding on occaision, but it takes rain in the 12 to 18 inch in 24 hour period to do that. And it does happen every 2 or 3 years. Even still I'd rather have what we have, water slowly rising around you, than the torrent down the valley kind of stuff that happens on the west coast.

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happ

So interesting to see the difference in rainfall attitudes. Down here, we don't even think of a single thunderstorm as severe unless it drops 3 or 4 inches of rain in an hour. And that is a multiple times a year occurrence. Good luck guys, I hope you all get just the amount of rain you want.

Keith

Keith,

I think the difference in attitude is equal to the difference in topography. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Louisiana has many mountain ranges. In California you have hundreds of miles of mountains from 4000-6000 ft and higher. When the rains hit those mountains (sometimes 2 to 3 times the amount falls than at the lower elevations), and all of it runs off while concentrating in the ravines and canyons, the flooding can get dangerous and severe - not to mention the landslide danger.

You are correct Dean, and I do realize that. We do have flash flooding on occasion, but it takes rain in the 12 to 18 inch in 24 hour period to do that. And it does happen every 2 or 3 years. Even still I'd rather have what we have, water slowly rising around you, than the torrent down the valley kind of stuff that happens on the west coast.

Rain is a gift in southern Mediterranean climates. Aside from the rarity of rainfall [it stimulates considerable news coverage] is the benefit of replenished storage after the long seasonal dry seasons each year. The hillsides are lush in native grasses that will die by April. Rainfall is vital in the Southwest U.S. and often anguished over during drought years.

Sometimes very heavy amounts of precipitation occur. In 2005 I recorded several days of over 5 inches in 24 hour periods\ 127mm and over 50 inches for the year. Landslides and flooding resulted all over California. A mudslide in La Conchita killed 10 people.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phKdYfyCrc4&feature=fvw

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osideterry

I think the difference in attitude is equal to the difference in topography. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Louisiana has many mountain ranges. In California you have hundreds of miles of mountains from 4000-6000 ft and higher. When the rains hit those mountains (sometimes 2 to 3 times the amount falls than at the lower elevations), and all of it runs off while concentrating in the ravines and canyons, the flooding can get dangerous and severe - not to mention the landslide danger.

4000-6000 ft describes San Diego and Orange Counties. For Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernadino the mountains are in the 9,000-11,500 ft range.

While most of San Diego County averages 10" of rain a year, the summit of Mount Palomar (6,000 ft) has an annual range of 40-60".

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happ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 507 PM PST FRI DEC 17 2010

...A SERIES OF UNUSUALLY WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PLUME OF VERY DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS REGION HAS SEEN IN RECENT YEARS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE COASTS WILL RANGE ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BUT MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE EXTREME WITH 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD BRING SOME AREAS TO NEAR SATURATION AND THIS IS JUST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF IN MANY AREAS ON MONDAY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...INCLUDING MOST OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE TOTALS IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS UP TO AROUND 12 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY WITH MORE STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK... PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7500 THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6500 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS BELOW RECENT BURN AREAS. INTERESTS IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THESE EVENTS. ALONG WITH THE RAINS...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEED TO BE AWARE THAT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE REGION. WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

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Perito

Steady rain from early morning and still going now at 7PM, medium hard to light rain with much more to come! It looks like todays system is focused here in south San Luis Obispo and north Santa Barbara Counties.

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MattyB

I hope it's slo and steady for you Perry.

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Perito

I hope it's slo and steady for you Perry.

Thanks MattyB. Nothing too brutal. I'm already gettin' cabin fever though!

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BS Man about Palms

Can you build a pipeline south please Perry?

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happ

Recorded over 1.50'\ 38.9mm so far today and it continues to rain with heavier amounts forecast tomorrow. The subtropical jet has been positioned over central and southern California from Los Angeles northward and should shift subtly south toward San Diego later in the coming week. This is a tremendous Xmas present for California with up to 4 feet in snow accumulations in the high Sierra so far.

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Perito

Can you build a pipeline south please Perry?

Bill, You'll be thanking me in a couple days!

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Perito

Still raining-still raining -still raining! Basically more than 30 hours staight, heavy wind gusts between 5 and 6 AM this morning. This is the best soaking we've had in a long time here (Southern San Luis Obispo County). I haven't seen totals yet.

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BS Man about Palms

Thanks for pointing the way south Perry, it worked.. :)

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Wai`anae Steve

This could really mess with Christmas plans, but it would be awesome to get 2-3 inches of rain. Below is a link to Ken Clark's blog on this, plus a satellite image.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/clark/story/43031/the-moisture-train-in-placedestination-in-question.asp

That long yellow line way off to the left hit the islands last night. I now have had 2.11 inches since midnight. About 1/2 of that came between 4:30 and 7:00 a.m. Now I have to go out and look for dammage. :rage: Man the weeds are gonna grow now. :angry:

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happ

Steady rainfall all night produced nearly 3 inches\ 76.1mm; storm total [since Friday] is approximately 4.50 inches\ 114mm. This is the perfect storm for Los Angeles due to a slight SW flow, the 2000+ foothills [santa Monica range] benefit from orographic-induced moisture. 24hr temperature range in this nearly saturated air only 3 degrees [60-63F\ 15.5-17.2C].

Here's is segment of this morning's AMS_LA chapter discussion:

"Based on all the models, it looks like we are only about 25% through the total rainfall expected from this week long ARkStorm and with much more to go through - especially this Tuesday into Wednesday. The NAM & the Canadian models seem to have handled this event the best. Most models show an additional 7.50" of rain for the Los Angeles Metro Area; up to 9.50" more for the San Fernando, San Gabriel, and Santa Clarita Valleys; this does not include the additional foot or more of rain for our local foothills & mountains. The rain will become heavier over the next 24 to 48 hours, this will be due to this deep Alaska low dropping southward off of the California coast. Combining the southwest to northeast oriented 564 dm contour at 500 mb over Northern Baja this Tuesday afternoon, our current Atmospheric River Plume, and the topographical features of our mountain ranges over the Southern California Coast & Coastal Valleys, we may have possibly the wettest December since 1889 over the Los Angeles Metro Area - where almost 16 inches of rain fell in Downtown Los Angeles in one week. This was the wettest month on record for Los Angeles".

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pogobob

Happ, this is a very interesting weather pattern. the constant flow pattern of moisture is almost unwavering, as the flow is mostly to the north of Orange county. Here in San Clemente we have had 2.75" as of 330 pm Sunday, while at the nursery in east Oceanside the accumulation is only 1". Just a slight sag and everything can change!

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epicure3

Here in the Del Mar area we've had a whopping .15 inches of rain. Just enough to get the car dirty.

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Jubaea

Nearly 6" here in Santa Barbara and it is still coming down. All of my in ground Jubaea palm seedlings and under 2+ inches of water. :(

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Cristóbal

No rain in Tijuana. Only wind. Please come more south rain !

Edited by Cristóbal

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happ

It really is remarkable how the stream of moisture is stuck over a section of the state from south of San Francisco to extreme south Orange county [maybe 400 miles wide]. It really has not stopped raining for more than 10 minutes every few hours in Los Angeles since yesterday but should slow down overnight. About 4.50 inches in 24-hours at my location. Hope San Diego county finally gets in on the action.

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BS Man about Palms

I probably have now passed 2" in Oceanside...maybe a little more..

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trioderob

So interesting to see the difference in rainfall attitudes. Down here, we don't even think of a single thunderstorm as severe unless it drops 3 or 4 inches of rain in an hour. And that is a multiple times a year occurance. Good luck guys, I hope you all get just the amount of rain you want.

Keith

YEA

I was in a flash flood in your state once and it was no fun.

bv the way- 1" of rain total at 9 am by san diego state on my rain gauge.

Edited by trioderob

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MattyB

Approximately 1" of rain so far for us this weekend. It's been coming down slowly but consistantly. This is a good rate for us, I don't want massive downpours.

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happ

With some scattered heavy showers last night my rain total since Friday is now over 6 inches. The last impulse of torrential rainfall is forecast to arrive tomorrow afternoon\ evening. It is amazing that the hillsides that were badly burned a year ago have not produced much in the way of landslides\ mudslides so far though that could all change after this next system moves thru California. There may be additional rain over the Xmas weekend though it doesn't seem very potent. The garden is loving this heavy precipitation as it dissolves the salt build-ups and deeply irrigates the soil. :mrlooney:

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MattyB

I'm not suprised that the burned areas are not mudding. The rain we had earlier in the season has allowed a lot of grasses and natives to spring back to life early. It's amazing the difference in erosion control a simple mat of native grasses, and mustard seedlings, will do for a slope. I always have the urge to spray parts of my dirt road with herbicides to make it look nice, but once heavy rainfall occurs and I'm watching the swales flow with fast running water, I'm glad the grasses and weeds are there to prevent damaging erosion.

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MattyB

I've been watching the radar and it's amazing how this line of moisture is so defined. No wonder Cristobal is getting no rain. Look at the straight line of blue where the rain pretty much stops, that's not the bottom of the radar's range, it's just the moisture ending.

post-126-034397600 1292881425_thumb.jpg

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epicure3

Here in the Del Mar area we've had a whopping .15 inches of rain. Just enough to get the car dirty.

Up to .75" now in the past 24 hrs. Maybe 1" since this all started. I'm sure we'll get more tomorrow.

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DoomsDave

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 507 PM PST FRI DEC 17 2010

...A SERIES OF UNUSUALLY WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PLUME OF VERY DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS REGION HAS SEEN IN RECENT YEARS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE COASTS WILL RANGE ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BUT MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE EXTREME WITH 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD BRING SOME AREAS TO NEAR SATURATION AND THIS IS JUST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF IN MANY AREAS ON MONDAY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...INCLUDING MOST OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE TOTALS IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS UP TO AROUND 12 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY WITH MORE STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK... PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7500 THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6500 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS BELOW RECENT BURN AREAS. INTERESTS IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THESE EVENTS. ALONG WITH THE RAINS...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEED TO BE AWARE THAT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE REGION. WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

I wonder if those guys scream at their wives . . .. :lol:

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MattyB

No we are getting it and LA is relatively dry. The sag the sag the sag!!!!! :drool:

post-126-072940900 1292956205_thumb.jpg

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MattyB

It looks like LA is finally seeing a break in the rain and we'll have a break in an hour or so. Then more tonight, and heavier rain tomorrow they say. Ahhhhhhh!!!!!! No mudslides, please!

post-126-085537300 1292960301_thumb.jpg

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