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Dave-Vero

Arbor Day Foundation hardiness map

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SubTropicRay

Dave, I guess the urbanization of Tampa Bay has been taken into account.  All it takes is one morning of really nasty stuff however, to revert both central coasts back to Z9.

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spockvr6

Once again....they use only a short data period for the map :(

I cannot understand why they keep doing this when 100 years worth of data is available for many locations.

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spockvr6

That big Zone 10 "blob" going way inland from Tampa is very interesting (and Im sure will have lots of folks very excited).

Brandon/Valrico/Plant City.....now all Zoned just like Miami!  YAY!

LOL.

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spockvr6

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,09:13)

QUOTE
I cannot understand why they keep doing this when 100 years worth of data is available for many locations.

I think I know the answer to this, but no use in getting into that here!

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gsn

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,09:13)

QUOTE
Once again....they use only a short data period for the map :(

I cannot understand why they keep doing this when 100 years worth of data is available for many locations.

Larry,

I personally think because it supports, and gives more ammuntion for the theory of global warming!

Whatever side you fall on on this issue, it does give those who feel that we are screwing up the planet burning fossil fuels, a well known public forum that the general  public sees and respects.

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spockvr6

(gsn @ Dec. 20 2006,09:26)

QUOTE

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,09:13)

QUOTE
Once again....they use only a short data period for the map :(

I cannot understand why they keep doing this when 100 years worth of data is available for many locations.

Larry,

I personally think because it supports, and gives more ammuntion for the theory of global warming!

Whatever side you fall on on this issue, it does give those who feel that we are screwing up the planet burning fossil fuels, a well known public forum that the general  public sees and respects.

Scott-

That is what I was eluding to in my post #5 above.

I have no idea what the "truth" is about global warming but, why cant agencies like this present the best data theyve got and let the info fall where it may?  

This is a plant hardiness map for crying out loud....does politics have to invade even such simple pleasures as one's garden?

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gsn

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,09:33)

QUOTE
This is a plant hardiness map for crying out loud....does politics have to invade even such simple pleasures as one's garden?

Larry,

Unfortunately the answer to your question is yes, everyone has an agenda these days.

And it is one of the HOT political footballs right now!

I feel as you it is a shame!!! :(

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spockvr6

Scott-

Yes....I guess it is a shame.

But, it is not all that hard these days to manually extract lots of historical weather data for many stations online.  Tedious perhaps....but doable in many cases.  I did this a little while ago for the station in St. Petersburg, FL (since the data was available online going back to 1948).  

Maps are fine and all, but seeing raw numbers is better and more meaningful.

These raw numbers plotted for this station over the past 59 years showed this result----

AWData.jpg

As is readily apparent with this plot, Mother Nature is not so neat, clean, and consistent as the colored maps might lead one to believe.

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gsn

Larry,

Your missing the point.

Your original question was,why do they use such short periods of data when  they could go back in many cases a 100 years.

The simple answer,  those numbers wouldn't support their AGENDA!

They are using  data starting in 1990. If they used data starting  in 1980, that map at least of Florida would look very different.

I find it very interesting that even if they used 1989 to 2006 that map of Florida would look very different. As we in  Florida all know what happened in 1989. I don't know this for a fact ,but 1989 was probably a rough winter for the entire continental US.

I also agree,that looking at numbers is more meaniful than maps! But how much of the general public would read those numbers? A map is so easy to see,and digest, and all those pretty colors! :P

If they used more historical data the CUTE little maps, compared side by side, would't show the EQUATORIAL temps creeping north!

Rant over!!!

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NBTX11

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,09:13)

QUOTE
Once again....they use only a short data period for the map :(

I cannot understand why they keep doing this when 100 years worth of data is available for many locations.

The long term data more closely matches this map than the 1990 map.  The 1990 map is more out of whack than this map by far, if you look at the longer term stats.

This map is also more in line with 1) Long term stats  2) the 2003 USDA draft map 3) the 2004 Arbor day map (nearly identical).  The 1990 map was the only one that is out of whack.  I have even seen a zone map from 1960 that someone sent me (don't know where the link is now), and it pretty much matched this one.  I fully believe this one is mostly accurate.

For example, the 1990 map lists San Antonio as a zone 8b barely.  Anyone who has lived here any length of time can tell you the winters that we get into the teens are very few and far between, getting down to 15 degrees would be extremely rare (although did happen during the 1980s)  The LONG TERM average lows would show us as a 9a, or around 22F for an average winter low.  This map accurately states that and shows us as a 9a.  It is accurate.  Not to say we can't ever have an 8b (or even 8a) winter, but to say that is the average is flat out wrong, like the 1990 map was.  If you go off the last 10 years, we're a borderline zone 9b (no, I'm not claiming 9b yet).  

Side note, here is a quote from the Post article:

"The map divides the continental United States into nine zones, from Zone 2 near the Canadian border to Zone 10 at the tip of Florida. (Zone 1 is found only in Alaska's frigid interior, Zone 11 only in tropical Hawaii.) The zones were mapped by examining local weather data and averaging the lowest temperature recorded in the 15 previous winters."

Incorrect, all of the florida keys are zone 11, probably coastal Miami/Miami Beach, (even coastal San Diego?) are all probably zone 11.  At least pass accurate info if you are going to write an article.

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spockvr6

(syersj @ Dec. 20 2006,10:35)

QUOTE

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,09:13)

QUOTE
Once again....they use only a short data period for the map :(

I cannot understand why they keep doing this when 100 years worth of data is available for many locations.

The long term data more closely matches this map than the 1990 map.  The 1990 map is more out of whack than this map by far, if you look at the longer term stats.

This map is also more in line with 1) Long term stats  2) the 2003 USDA draft map 3) the 2004 Arbor day map (nearly identical).  The 1990 map was the only one that is out of whack.  I have even seen a zone map from 1960 that someone sent me (don't know where the link is now), and it pretty much matched this one.  I fully believe this one is mostly accurate.

For example, the 1990 map lists San Antonio as a zone 8b barely.  Anyone who has lived here any length of time can tell you the winters that we get into the teens are very few and far between, getting down to 15 degrees would be extremely rare (although did happen during the 1980s)  The LONG TERM average lows would show us as a 9a, or around 22F for an average winter low.  This map accurately states that and shows us as a 9a.  It is accurate.  Not to say we can't ever have an 8b (or even 8a) winter, but to say that is the average is flat out wrong, like the 1990 map was.  If you go off the last 10 years, we're a borderline zone 9b (no, I'm not claiming 9b yet).  

Side note, here is a quote from the Post article:

"The map divides the continental United States into nine zones, from Zone 2 near the Canadian border to Zone 10 at the tip of Florida. (Zone 1 is found only in Alaska's frigid interior, Zone 11 only in tropical Hawaii.) The zones were mapped by examining local weather data and averaging the lowest temperature recorded in the 15 previous winters."

Incorrect, all of the florida keys are zone 11, probably coastal Miami/Miami Beach, (even coastal San Diego?) are all probably zone 11.  At least pass accurate info if you are going to write an article.

Still....why not use long term data...it is there for free!  The computer will not really care if it has to average 100 numbers rather than 15 :D

And.....when climate comparisons are made....why always use the 1990 map as the basis?  Why doesnt Arbor Day use a much older one (like 1960)?

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spockvr6

(syersj @ Dec. 20 2006,10:35)

QUOTE
"The map divides the continental United States into nine zones, from Zone 2 near the Canadian border to Zone 10 at the tip of Florida. (Zone 1 is found only in Alaska's frigid interior, Zone 11 only in tropical Hawaii.) The zones were mapped by examining local weather data and averaging the lowest temperature recorded in the 15 previous winters."

Incorrect, all of the florida keys are zone 11, probably coastal Miami/Miami Beach, (even coastal San Diego?) are all probably zone 11.  At least pass accurate info if you are going to write an article.

I also noticed this on the 2006 map.

There are no Zone 11 areas shown outside of HI.

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NBTX11

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,10:54)

QUOTE
[And.....when climate comparisons are made....why always use the 1990 map as the basis?  Why doesnt Arbor Day use a much older one (like 1960)?

Well, like it has been stated, maybe so the climate experts can point to it and make thier case for global warming.  When it's not totally accurate, because the 1990 map covered a shorter period too, with abnormally cold winters.

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NBTX11

BobbyInNY, if they keep updating this map every year, you'll be a zone 8 before you know it!!!

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NBTX11

(Dave-Vero @ Dec. 20 2006,00:27)

QUOTE
http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm

Zone 10 now includes Cape Canaveral and much of Tampa-St Pete.  The Portland, Oregon heat island is Zone 9.  

Washington Post story.

I wonder what palms realistically can be grown in Portland.  Can true zone 9 palms be expirimented with, or are there average temperatures (winter highs, etc) just too low.  Portland looks cool, but mainly frost free according to averages, so would that limit them to trachys, etc.

Portland

January    46.0° F 37.0° F 6.24 in

February   50.0° F 39.0° F 5.07 in

March        56.0° F 41.0° F 4.51 in

April          61.0° F 44.0° F 3.10 in

May           67.0° F 49.0° F 2.49 in

June          73.0° F 53.0° F 1.60 in

July           79.0° F 57.0° F 0.76 in

August       79.0° F 58.0° F 0.99 in

September 74.0° F 55.0° F 1.87 in

October     63.0° F 48.0° F 3.39 in

November  51.0° F 42.0° F 6.39 in

December  46.0° F 37.0° F 6.75 in

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SubTropicRay

I'm unsure about Global warming but urbanization and the heat island effect are factual.

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Dec. 20 2006,13:41)

QUOTE
but urbanization and the heat island effect are factual.

But......Plant City aint that built up yet!

That big "blob" of Z10 heading east of Tampa Bay seems quite out of place.

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Dave-Vero

syersj,

There's a PNW palm discussion forum at

http://www.cloudforest.com/northwest/

Portland probably never gets colder than Tallahassee (maybe Gainesville), but the persistent cold and coolish summers are very limiting.  Butia capitata is worth trying, and the little Trachycarpus I planted almost a decade ago might be quite big by now.

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SubTropicRay

Larry, the map may mean to draw that blob along interstate 4.  One day sooner than later, it will be one big city from here to Orlando.

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palmblues

they use the last fifteen years only, because of the known fact that the atmospheres temp has risen in the last fifteen years. if you go all the way back to early last century and use that data you are adding in outdated data. whether you believe in 'global warming' or no, adding outdated data only messes it up, so they have to try and be current. as an illustration, you could go all the way back say 40000 years and then we'd all be zone 3 maybe :D . so they have to try and keep it updated. also note that they only used 5000 reporting stations across the continental us for their estimates. how accurate can that be in this huge country. you would probably need 5000 stations in fla alone to get a correct measure.

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happ

Dave-Vero

Thanks for the link to a fun site  :D

USDA Zones are much more detailed but I don't believe the government weather bureau incorporate yearly updates.

Sobering look into the future esp for young people.   :o

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ruskinPalms

Neat map. I have to agree that the Z10 out east along I4 may be 15 years too early, but it is heading that way! Even now, looking at the FAWN station on Dover and personal weather stations out that way, it stays strangly warm compared to what the news says. I don't think that most of Brandon is the icebox that it is made out to be on the local news. On radiational cooling nights, it often feels pretty warm in Brandon proper compared to even here in Ruskin. On nights of advective cooling, Brandon is screwed though! I can't really comment much on the boonies farther east along I4. I just know that I have seen a grove of full grown cocos growing out that way at a nursery, Here is their website:

plumeria

Drive out that way if you are in the area. I think I'm not crazy about what I saw  ???  Adonidias and foxtails seem to be making it out that way too. Again, I think a Z10 rating is optimistic, but if they still had A and B zones, I think Brandon would make the 9B cut. I think that cocos, foxtails, royals and adonidias can live out there about oh..say 15 years or so before they get nailed by the next big advective freeze  :;):

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ruskinPalms

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,09:53)

QUOTE
Scott-

Yes....I guess it is a shame.

But, it is not all that hard these days to manually extract lots of historical weather data for many stations online.  Tedious perhaps....but doable in many cases.  I did this a little while ago for the station in St. Petersburg, FL (since the data was available online going back to 1948).

Maps are fine and all, but seeing raw numbers is better and more meaningful.

These raw numbers plotted for this station over the past 59 years showed this result----

AWData.jpg

As is readily apparent with this plot, Mother Nature is not so neat, clean, and consistent as the colored maps might lead one to believe.

Larry, I was never too good at statistics in school, but I think that dip in the early 60's is an outlier and the 1980's had to have had some other much more global reason for a cooldown (Mount St. Helens, solar minimum, etc etc.?) If these are controlled for, I think one would have a real good idea about about what to expect except for rare events (which could still ruin it all!). Did you perform linear regression on the data? If so, what r value did it give you? Also, I think the Arbor Day foundation should use longer time frames - if not 100 then even 30 years seems reasonable enough. I mean come on, it is tree foundation and most trees live longer than 15 years!

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Dec. 20 2006,19:31)

QUOTE
Larry, the map may mean to draw that blob along interstate 4.  One day sooner than later, it will be one big city from here to Orlando.

It may very well be one big city from Tampa to Orlando someday....but right now it gets dang cold out there and theres no way that its a Zone 10!

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 20 2006,22:12)

QUOTE
I just know that I have seen a grove of full grown cocos growing out that way at a nursery, Here is their website:

plumeria

One cant count what they see at a nursery as being legitimate for the climate.  

I drive through the extreme northeast section of Pinellas / extreme northwest section of Hillsborough everyday (and have for almost 8 years) and there are nurseries out there with Coconuts in the ground.  But, for some odd reason, every few years I notice that they are brown and a few weeks later new ones take their place elsewhere on the grounds.  I still havent figured out why yet :D

LOL

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 20 2006,22:26)

QUOTE
Larry, I was never too good at statistics in school, but I think that dip in the early 60's is an outlier and the 1980's had to have had some other much more global reason for a cooldown (Mount St. Helens, solar minimum, etc etc.?) If these are controlled for, I think one would have a real good idea about about what to expect except for rare events (which could still ruin it all!). Did you perform linear regression on the data? If so, what r value did it give you? Also, I think the Arbor Day foundation should use longer time frames - if not 100 then even 30 years seems reasonable enough. I mean come on, it is tree foundation and most trees live longer than 15 years!

One can "massage" things any way they want :D  We can pick out extreme events on both ends, fit trendlines to the data, etc (all very easy to do in Excel, which is where most of us probably got our statistics training)!

In the case of Arbor Day, Ive come to the conclusion that they want to show global warming, so they pick data which does so.  I would suspect that if they did their before and after maps using the 1960 map as the "base" map, that the changes would not seem so great?

I have no idea on global warming (as to what is real and what is hype), but I just wish such outfits would stay out of politics and just give us the data without "predigesting" it for us.  

In the end, as has been said many times, the final arbiter of climate is looking at what is growing.   One can be quite condfident where these real Zone 10 areas areas are by driving around.

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 20 2006,22:12)

QUOTE
Again, I think a Z10 rating is optimistic, but if they still had A and B zones, I think Brandon would make the 9B cut.

I suspect thats probably about right.  I work out in Temple Terrace (near I75 and Fletcher) and in the almost 8 years Ive driven out that way daily, Ive seen 20's on my car thermometer more than once ??? Ive also seen ice on roadside canals at least twice.

I visited the the nursery at the Lowes out in New Tampa the day after the freeze and much of their stock was looking pretty rough.  Id say half the Crotons were fried, and the poor B&B Coconuts that they tried to protect by placing them up against the building and surrounding them with Chinese Fans and Washingtonias did not appear like they were going to make it.

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ruskinPalms

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 20 2006,22:30)

QUOTE

(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 20 2006,22:12)

QUOTE
I just know that I have seen a grove of full grown cocos growing out that way at a nursery, Here is their website:

plumeria

One cant count what they see at a nursery as being legitimate for the climate.  

I drive through the extreme northeast section of Pinellas / extreme northwest section of Hillsborough everyday (and have for almost 8 years) and there are nurseries out there with Coconuts in the ground.  But, for some odd reason, every few years I notice that they are brown and a few weeks later new ones take their place elsewhere on the grounds.  I still havent figured out why yet :D

LOL

Ha  :laugh: . I think at the end of the day, we believe what what we truly wish was true. I think we are all hoping that are areas are a little warmer that they really probably are . I am sure these guys brought in full grown Coconut palms  :angry: , but it is inspiring to see them there none the less. By the way, when I saw them, they were pretty ratty looking overall. Very tall though, so I think they may avoid some of the radiational nastiness. But I am sure the next big advective freeze will do them in  :(

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 20 2006,22:12)

QUOTE
I think that cocos, foxtails, royals and adonidias can live out there about oh..say 15 years or so before they get nailed by the next big advective freeze  :;):

I think you will be the tester for that in Ruskin from the looks of your yard!

I am doing my best to be the tester for north Pinellas :D

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 20 2006,22:48)

QUOTE
Ha  :laugh: . I think at the end of the day, we believe what what we truly wish was true. I think we are all hoping that are areas are a little warmer that they really probably are .

I used to be that way....till I leaned to the "dark side"....Ray H. influenced me too much :D

The reality is the reality and its easy to get caught up in the excitement of hoping to be able to grow lots of things that deep down we all know are likely to have a limited lifespan.  

I have gotten the long term scoop on this from my local nursery here in Tarpon Springs (as they have been there since the early 1950's).  They just laugh when people tell them about their climate as theyve seen it all...the good years and the bad years.  People's memories are short.  When/if another bad one hits, folks will revert back to the hardy long term landscape staples for a few years, before venturing out into the more tender stuff again.    This is the cycle this nursery told me occurs.  They said after the bad freezes of the early 60's and the 80's, they could barely sell even a Hibiscus for a few years afterwards.

Hopefully my "reality" does not temper anyones desires to try things, but it really is foolish to think that the Tampa Bay area will ever be like Miami (even if the map says so).  If one injects a little realism into the hobby, I believe there will be alot less disappointment in the end.

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 20 2006,22:48)

QUOTE
I am sure these guys brought in full grown Coconut palms

Thats what all of us do up here!

It would be very difficult (if not impossible?) to commerically grow Coconuts from seed to field grown size up here.

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NBTX11

Don't forget, Brandon can be a legit zone 10, yet you can't grow cocos, because that is just an AVERAGE, and we know full well they can and do drop into the 20s.  But that doesn't mean the average isn't 30F over the longer haul.  Just because your a zone 10 don't mean you can't drop down to 20-25F once in a blue moon.

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happ

A sobering thought of global warming is the increased volatility of the weather.   :o  

Current ENSO appears to be weakening.  It could mean a very dry year for California and an active Atlantic hurricane season.

From Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Summary: El Niño maturing

Mature El Niño conditions continue to dominate the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean surface temperatures have been steady over the past fortnight at somewhat more than 1°C above average right across the central and eastern equatorial regions, and cloud patterns generally show a classic El Niño structure. Computer model guidance continues to suggest that Pacific Ocean temperatures, and hence the El Niño, may peak around January or February 2007. This timing would be consistent with the breakdown of past El Niño events.

However, there are a few signs that the event may have already started to weaken: the SOI has only been weakly negative for more than a month; the Trade Winds in the western and central Pacific have strengthened to near-normal values in December; and sub-surface temperatures show a weakening of east-Pacific warmth and a strengthening cool signal extending from the west.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif nino regions 1 & 2 cooling

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seasona....ex.html SOI is near neatural

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/  trades are strengthening

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palmblues

Larry,

  just wondering why you think its a politcal agenda the NADF has? i see no mention of anything political on their site or even blame reasons for the warming. they sell trees and want folks to plant trees, i would think something like that would be right up your alley.

  also your graph you posted clearly shows a large upswing in temps at AW for the last 15 years as compared to the previous 50. Whitted is definately much much warmer for that time (1990-2006) as seen in the graph.

  just wondering,

robert

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spockvr6

(palmblues @ Dec. 21 2006,01:16)

QUOTE
Larry,

  just wondering why you think its a politcal agenda the NADF has? i see no mention of anything political on their site or even blame reasons for the warming.

Here is a cut and paste from their press release---whats the point of the last sentence?

As I have mentioned above, I do not know the truth about global warming (it appears no one does).  But, why cant they just give us the numbers and not add their own commentary?

I just get so disappointed that poltics has to invade every aspect of our lives (and that we cant even get gardening info without it being biased in some way).

"In response to requests for up-to-date information, the Arbor Day Foundation developed the new zones based on the most recent 15 years' data available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 5,000 National Climatic Data Center cooperative stations across the United States.

The new 2006 arborday.org Hardiness Zone Map is consistent with the consensus of climate scientists that global warming is underway. "

"

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spockvr6

(palmblues @ Dec. 21 2006,01:16)

QUOTE
  also your graph you posted clearly shows a large upswing in temps at AW for the last 15 years as compared to the previous 50. Whitted is definately much much warmer for that time (1990-2006) as seen in the graph.

  just wondering,

robert

That graph looked semi U-shaped to me with the earliest period being warmer, the middle colder, then the latest getting warmer again.

Which leads me back to my question of why all the maps, when making climate comparisons, always use the "before" data as the data from the coldest period of record (the 1990 map)?

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spockvr6

I am sure I am coming across as a sour puss in this thread  :D

But...what is weve been looking at things the wrong way?

What if, when it comes to what plants are suitable for a given climate, that a given area (like the much discussed Zone 10 around Tampa) has over the very long haul been legitimately Zone 10 and its only been the past few decades where it has been colder than the years prior?   Ive seen alot of historical photographs of the area from the early 1900's, are there do seem to be alot of Coconuts in the background, that we dont see today.

So, our look backwards (that I have been using in saying things like Coconuts are not long term suitable), might be using a data period that is not applicable anymore.  Maybe we are getting back to the pre-1960's temps......maybe we are getting there as part of a natural cycle and maybe there are man induced effects thrown in.  I really have no idea (and the reasons should have no bearing on a production of a gardening map, which should be done merely with data averaging).

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SubTropicRay

Larry,

Perhaps these organizations consider old data to not be representative of local, more recent urbanization.  A good example is how many spring and fall record lows go back in time i.e. 1899, 1927 and 1940.  The last March Tampa freeze was in 1980 I believe.  For November, it is 1970.  Another thing to consider is the equipment back then.  Maybe they consider old temperature data to be significantly skewed by the available instrumentation of the time. Just a thought although I agree 30 years may be a bit too narrow a time frame to consider.

Ray

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spockvr6

Ray-

I guess I should get off my grinchy soap box :D

Whatever the reasons for the maps are, they are.  In the meantime, we can always just look directly at the raw data and make our own judgements.

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