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Walter John

Christmas weather forecasts

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Walter John

Here in Brisbane, Aus, the Bureau of Meterology is predicting this for xmas. Updated 6am 23rd dec.

Xmas eve - Fine

Min 19 (66.2f)   Max 28 (83f)

Xmas day - Late rain

Min 20 (68f)   Max 32 (89.6f)

This will determine where we eat , inside or on the back deck. Got a heap of family coming.

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Exotic Life

Hi Wal,

So far the expected 2 green chrismas day's with no snow and no frost :)

The weather forecasts are every 3-4 hours diffrent but the most times it's this.

Temps by day between the 6-9C / 42.8-48.2F

Temps by night between the 1-5C/ 33.8-41F

So we see :) It can tomorrow completly diffrent ...

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elHoagie

For Los Angeles - cloudy, hi 20C, lo 8C.

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happ

I will be in San Jose : 62/46 Xmas day.  :;):

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spockvr6

Christmas is still a bit out, but at the current time the forecasts call for 74F/58F which would be just fine.  Its been running a little warm for this time of year lately (lower 80's F) but this is forecast to fade out over the next week to more normal temps.

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SunnyFl

But where did the sun go????

What a gloomy weekend.  Guess it was for the best - I got a lot of indoor work done.  

Bleah.

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Walter John

I'll just keep editing my first post as we get closer to the big day. No change yet to xams day but xmas eve is now changed from rain/storm to mostly fine. Boxing day is now listed as showers/storm.

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SubTropicRay

High 74F (23C), low of 58F (14C)

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BobbyinNY

uneventful here for Christmas ...... 50f/day, 40f/night

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epicure3

From the NWS

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. High 67.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low 48.

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paulgila

bobby i think its warmer where you are than here in socal.maybe i should go back & look at the thread on the amazing ways you protect your plants in winter...

:D

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Neofolis

24th - 6°C(43°F) / 1°C(34°F) Few Showers

25th - 6°C(43°F) / 2°C(36°F) Few Showers

26th - 5°C(41°F) / 2°C(36°F) Showers

Cold, but wamer than it has been for the past week.  It is supposed to warm up again on 28th.

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ZoneTenNut

79F/26C High   51F/11C Low Christmas Day, but 60% chance Thunderstorms and Rain  :(

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amazondk

Looks like a winter day here, but no snow.

Monday

Dec 25RainRain

Hi: 80°

Lo: 76°

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SunnyFl

Sunday night low forecast to be 63F; Christmas Day, the high will only reach 68F, with showers and winds that could gust up to 30mph.  Probably have to bring in some of the more fragile palms due to wind.

Also, the weekend is forecast to be rainy - today was very overcast, which has been happening too much.  Where is the sun??

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ZoneTenNut

Looks like we are going to be a bit warmer than originally forecast for Christmas Day. 81F/27C High, and 60F/16C Low. Strong SE breeze bringing in warm and humid conditions.

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SunnyFl

(ZoneTenNut @ Dec. 24 2006,12:35)

QUOTE
Looks like we are going to be a bit warmer than originally forecast for Christmas Day. 81F/27C High, and 60F/16C Low. Strong SE breeze bringing in warm and humid conditions.

Yup, same here.  The other day our Christmas forecast high was 68 - now it's forecast to be 75.  All I can say is it felt too warm today and my A/C was on and ended up icing.  grrr.

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spockvr6

(SunnyFl @ Dec. 24 2006,19:08)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Dec. 24 2006,12:35)

QUOTE
Looks like we are going to be a bit warmer than originally forecast for Christmas Day. 81F/27C High, and 60F/16C Low. Strong SE breeze bringing in warm and humid conditions.

Yup, same here.  The other day our Christmas forecast high was 68 - now it's forecast to be 75.  All I can say is it felt too warm today and my A/C was on and ended up icing.  grrr.

Sunny-

And since its in the upper 70's already at this hour (815AM), it looks like even the revised forecasts were off a bit.  I am seeing some relatively strong S/SE breezes here in Tarpon Springs and dewpoints in the 70's as well.  Wouldnt it be something if we could alwasy have winds with a southerly component to them  :D

And.....weve got this coming in very shortly.....

christmasradar.jpg

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SubTropicRay

Then the quick rush of "cool" air.  Can't we get the rain without the cold front?!  Oh yeah, that's Costa Rica.

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SunnyFl

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 25 2006,08:18)

QUOTE
Sunny-

And since its in the upper 70's already at this hour (815AM), it looks like even the revised forecasts were off a bit.  I am seeing some relatively strong S/SE breezes here in Tarpon Springs and dewpoints in the 70's as well.  Wouldnt it be something if we could alwasy have winds with a southerly component to them  :D

And.....weve got this coming in very shortly.....

Thanks for posting that, Larry.  I don't have my tv connected (too much drywall dust) so can't watch twc.  That's quite a graphic - and looks to be affecting us for a good while.

They've already announced Tornado Watch #882 from Englewood to Tarpon (I do have NOAA radio on) - and it's starting to look ugly.  "Travel is not recommended."

Oh joy.  Soon, I'll be driving a ways, and getting nervous about road conditions.  yuk.

(edited to correct a really bad typo)

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SunnyFl

Oh geez.  It just blew up - it's impassible out there.  Looks like a flippin tropical storm :(

Quite a treat for the Raveneas rivularis - sure hope my glaucas don't drown  ???

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happ

Could sure use some of that Florida rainfall  :o

Total since July : 0.83  :(   All the storms fall apart after inundating the PacNW.

Subtropical jet is still suppressed. ENSO experts are discussing the possibility that El Nino is weakening.  Not good news for parched LA.

NWS is calling for temps to exceed 80F inland today then cool down later this week.

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ZoneTenNut

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 25 2006,08:18)

QUOTE

(SunnyFl @ Dec. 24 2006,19:08)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Dec. 24 2006,12:35)

QUOTE
Looks like we are going to be a bit warmer than originally forecast for Christmas Day. 81F/27C High, and 60F/16C Low. Strong SE breeze bringing in warm and humid conditions.

Yup, same here.  The other day our Christmas forecast high was 68 - now it's forecast to be 75.  All I can say is it felt too warm today and my A/C was on and ended up icing.  grrr.

Sunny-

And since its in the upper 70's already at this hour (815AM), it looks like even the revised forecasts were off a bit.  I am seeing some relatively strong S/SE breezes here in Tarpon Springs and dewpoints in the 70's as well.  Wouldnt it be something if we could alwasy have winds with a southerly component to them  :D

And.....weve got this coming in very shortly.....

Wow! Just looking at the radars and all the violent weather angling across the state. Hoping we all get lots of needed rain and no tornados. Its still sunny here and a strong SSE breeze. 12:45pm and up to 82.3F. Looks like we are going to be even a couple more degrees higher than the last upward revision. Humid also.

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spockvr6

Zone10-

On the downside over here...the big "wave" came through and it looks like things may clear out as the day progresses.  And, the big cooldown as part of this front will come along as well.

The rain we have gotten (and are getting) is most welcome to me.

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Palmhut1

Here in Vista Ca, it's 80 degrees and sunny. I can't ask for more.

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epicure3

(epicure3 @ Dec. 21 2006,16:33)

QUOTE
From the NWS

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. High 67.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low 48.

Revise that to 76 today. It is simply a gorgeous Christmas Day.

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ZoneTenNut

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 25 2006,13:10)

QUOTE
Zone10-

On the downside over here...the big "wave" came through and it looks like things may clear out as the day progresses.  And, the big cooldown as part of this front will come along as well.

The rain we have gotten (and are getting) is most welcome to me.

Larry,

Hopefully the cooldown will be mild. We only got a little rain when this came through this evening, although its still drizzling, so who knows.

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SunnyFl

(happ @ Dec. 25 2006,12:02)

QUOTE
Could sure use some of that Florida rainfall  :o

Total since July : 0.83  :(   All the storms fall apart after inundating the PacNW.

Subtropical jet is still suppressed. ENSO experts are discussing the possibility that El Nino is weakening.  Not good news for parched LA.

NWS is calling for temps to exceed 80F inland today then cool down later this week.

Happ, I'm confused about the current state of this EN.  I've read lately - in credible online sources - that either it's remaining steady, weakening, or that a La Nina may be forming (not good for us).  I'm wondering which is accurate?

Sincerely hope you get some rain soon.

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spockvr6

(ZoneTenNut @ Dec. 25 2006,21:39)

QUOTE
Larry,

Hopefully the cooldown will be mild. We only got a little rain when this came through this evening, although its still drizzling, so who knows.

Yes....it should be mild (lower to middle 40's maybe)?  

All in all...I cannot complain about winter 2006 thus far.

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spockvr6

(SunnyFl @ Dec. 25 2006,21:53)

QUOTE
Happ, I'm confused about the current state of this EN.  I've read lately - in credible online sources - that either it's remaining steady, weakening, or that a La Nina may be forming (not good for us).  I'm wondering which is accurate?

Sunny-

I am so confused by the whole El Nino/La Nina thing that I pretty much have given up trying to understand it.

What really puzzles me is the below (taken from the Tampa Bay El Nino/La Nina page)---

"The data shows that since 1950 the winter/early spring with the strongest El Niño was 1983, while the strongest La Niña was 1989."

The strongest La Nina was 1989...OK...makes sense according to the usual wisdom....considering the winter that occurred that year.

The strongest El Nino was 1983.....yet.....this is a winter which ranks up there as one of the coldest nastiest winters on record in FL!  

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/TampaBayElNinoPage.htm

Therefore, I suppose that we are better off without being at either end of the extremes.

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happ

Credible data suggest a decline in current ENSO-Warm.  January is the target for copious moisture unless the event further weakens.  I think we can agree this has been a great Atlantic non-hurricane season [though meteorological types were bummed  :laugh: ].

Now the beneficial component of delivering Kona Pacific storms into the Southwest.  Hope it happens. There is a possibility of 2 fronts hanging together long enough to penetrate SoCal this week :P

Guess Cali shares bragging rights with Florida with 80's fairly widespread.  Though I spent a chilly mostly cloudy day in San Jose.  Glad to be home on this mild Christmas evening.  :)

LA : 80/56

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SunnyFl

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 25 2006,22:39)

QUOTE

(SunnyFl @ Dec. 25 2006,21:53)

QUOTE
Happ, I'm confused about the current state of this EN.  I've read lately - in credible online sources - that either it's remaining steady, weakening, or that a La Nina may be forming (not good for us).  I'm wondering which is accurate?

Sunny-

I am so confused by the whole El Nino/La Nina thing that I pretty much have given up trying to understand it.

What really puzzles me is the below (taken from the Tampa Bay El Nino/La Nina page)---

"The data shows that since 1950 the winter/early spring with the strongest El Niño was 1983, while the strongest La Niña was 1989."

The strongest La Nina was 1989...OK...makes sense according to the usual wisdom....considering the winter that occurred that year.

The strongest El Nino was 1983.....yet.....this is a winter which ranks up there as one of the coldest nastiest winters on record in FL!  

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/TampaBayElNinoPage.htm

Therefore, I suppose that we are better off without being at either end of the extremes.

From the article (thanks for the link, Larry) -

"For instance, a weak to moderate El Niño started earlier this year, and that enables forecasters to predict that the coming winter is likely to be warmer than normal across the northern states, and wetter than normal along the Gulf Coast. "

Almost makes it sound as if EN influences our winter precip rather than our temperatures.  And I've noticed through the years that it certainly does cause wetter winters.

Remember what I said about a possible link between EN and FL tornados?  Well, we had an outbreak yesterday during a typical EN rain event.

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happ

That was a wicked storm across central Florida yesterday  :o

Warmer than normal equatorial water along the So. America coastline allows the subtropical jet to drift northward & direct a semi-permanent stream of moisture across the southern states of the US.  Due to increased cloudiness, El Nino can suppress maximums but keep nights mild.  Violent weather can also occur.  I remember watching TV footage of monster waves crashing into beach homes/restaurants during past El Ninos.

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Neofolis

It's equally confusing here.  Here is a paragraph taken directly from the UK Met Office Site:

(UK MET Office @ December 2006)

QUOTE
Forecast uncertainties

Moderate strength El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the winter and have in the past often been accompanied by colder-than-normal winter spells in northern Europe, particularly in the Scandinavian region. However, this effect does not materialise in all cases, and thus the uncertainty surrounding the influence of El Niño remains key to the forecast and will continue to be monitored.

This implies that El Niños cause colder than average winters here, yet in past years with El Niño events we have had warmer than average winters, often much warmer than average.  They have often been followed by strong La Niña events the next years which is when we have had colder than average winters.

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SunnyFl

(happ @ Dec. 26 2006,20:57)

QUOTE
That was a wicked storm across central Florida yesterday  :o

Warmer than normal equatorial water along the So. America coastline allows the subtropical jet to drift northward & direct a semi-permanent stream of moisture across the southern states of the US.  

It was really nasty.  Some people's homes were completely destroyed - and it had to happen on Christmas  :(

When you mention the subtropical jet turning more northward, it would be pulling up warm moisture with it, I think, which would collide with the colder air mass, leading to tornadogenesis.  The tornados we get during these events are more likely to be the more damaging kind.

Violent weather can also occur.  I remember watching TV footage of monster waves crashing into beach homes/restaurants during past El Ninos.

I remember the vicious Feb. outbreak during the EN of '97-'98.  Truly appalling - Central FL was hammered and 42 people were killed.

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happ

What's interesting is that tornados are more likely to occur during winter than summer in the South.  And as remote as tornados are in California, they almost always happen during winter [of-course that's the rain season]  Upper level cold low pressure systems over warmer land/ocean can trigger violent weather.

The strongest wind in LA is land based & a result of weather systems to the east, primarily the Great Basin [Nevada/Utah].  The mountain passes create a funnel effect that strenghens the wind and often heats up the lowest atmosphere.

Tonight it is quite windy as a storm system moves into Arizona.  The cold air behind the front is rushing into California as high pressure quickly builds.  As we know, high pressure is descending air and can transport cold Arctic chill during winter in N. America.  Wind circulates the air and modifies the temperature & the mountains cause the wind to descend & warm.  In other words it will probably remain above 50F overnight thanks to topography.   :P

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