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Palmy

Accuweather is wacked.

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Palmy

I check forecasts all the time on several different websites. But Meterologists at Accuweather are screwed up in the head, at least I hope. Accuweather has this forcasting system, where they reach out 15 days, which seems a little crazy if you as me. They seem accurate for the first 5 days, and sometimes the next five days. But between 10 days and 15 days, they are seriously wrong. They say that we are suppose to have snow and rain all the way out.

It says that we will have temps in the mid to low 40's for highs and temps near 30 or lower for the lows. With snow and rain. They have to have some issues. Are the forcast models doing everything at this website? This cant possible be forecasting models. Can it?

Check it for yourself.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecas....etric=0

Has accuweather done this before, and if they have are they remotly correct?

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epicure3

No. You are correct...they are whacked in the head. :o

I have noticed this about their forecasts for the last few years. They have even had it snowing in San Diego at times. They always end up fixing it as you get closer to the forecast date. Seems to be only a west coast thing.

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BobbyinNY

Palmy, you better hope that they're not accurate...... But, I agree with you... They always are off after the 5th or 7th day... that's why I tend to pay closer attention to Weather.com.. where they only go out 10 days......

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tropicalb

I agree with all you guys....accuweather is nothing but inaccurate.

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Palmy

Ok, I'm glad to see that they are often times wrong.

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Don Little

5-7 days out being off is good for them, usually anything 3-5 days out is more like it, it's like hey let's throw some numbers in a hat and draw and this will be the forecast.  I do agree that they eventually change it but the only thing I generally use them for is the current conditions, anything else and it's weather.com

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SunnyFl

(epicure3 @ Dec. 05 2006,15:15)

QUOTE
No. You are correct...they are whacked in the head. :o

Maybe they're just addled cuz their boy got voted OUT.   No, I don't have much nice to say about 'em right now - but that's a whole nother (off)topic.

Palmy, those 15-day guesstimates can be useful.  Read them to spot which way the forecasts are trending.  As the day you're concerned about approaches, are the forecasts for it getting warmer - or colder.  Comparing the forecasts can also indicate whether a front is speeding up or slowing down, or if its impact is increasing or diminishing.

I actually (gritted my teeth and) read their site before going out of state.  Was worried about the weather when I'd be gone.  Two weeks prior, it did not look good.  But a few days later, the forecast for that same time period looked a wee bit more optimistic.  A week prior to our departure, it was better still.  So I was relieved that the trend was looking better.

Hope this helps.

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BobbyinNY
Doesn't anyone use www.weather.gov ----- The National Weather Service.

Their site has improved greatly. Here's an interesting graphic loop of low temps in SoCal over the next few days.

WOW... Dean... that's excellent... Honed right in on my town and it was exactly what was going on in my backyard... great site...

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galveston1602

I have to say thepoint forecasts from weather.gov are about as spot on a forecast as I can get.  heck if you know the GPS of your place you can enter it in and it will forecast for your specific area!

as for accuweather theyre crap for us.  they cant even get the fcst right for 4 hours out.  during last fridays cold front they had us at 46 all night even though the current temp was already at 42 and falling to 35... they shouldnt be able to miss it that badly within hours....

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SunnyFl

(Dypsisdean @ Dec. 05 2006,23:11)

QUOTE
Doesn't anyone use www.weather.gov ----- The National Weather Service.

Their site has improved greatly. Here's an interesting graphic loop of low temps in SoCal over the next few days.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx....ble=mnt

Hey Dypsis - thanks for posting that link!  I hadn't seen that looping one.  But yes, I rely on the weather.gov site - their forecasts are the most reliable, and I like the graphs where you can select which feature (precip, temps, winds etc) you want to see, and for what time period.  

I also tune in to the NOAA station for the Current Obs (gotta compare our temps to Albert Whitted :D), synopsis, and forecasts.  But if accuwx'd had their way, we would have lost that valuable resource.

I just wish NOAA'd do the 15-day extended, for the purposes I mentioned in my earlier post.

Weather Underground is my 2nd favorite - used to be just during Season, but it has so much more than that - like weather stations in local areas reporting conditions.

(galveston1602 @ Dec. 06, 2006,00:11)

QUOTE
I have to say thepoint forecasts from weather.gov are about as spot on a forecast as I can get.

Oh definitely - they're the best.  

as for accuweather theyre crap for us.  they cant even get the fcst right for 4 hours out.

:D

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elHoagie

I like the "area discussion" on the NOAA site.  They usually discuss not only the forecast, but how well the various models converged to produce that forecast.  If all the models converged well then it's a safe bet the forecast will be close to what happens, but when the models don't converge well then there is a wide range of possible weather....

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NBTX11

What do you mean Accuweather is whacked.  I can give a forecast for central Florida 7 MONTHS from now.  Here is my forecast for Tampa FL on the following dates 15-30 July 2007.  I gaurantee I am within 3 degrees on every forecast!!!

July 15, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 16, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 75, Sunny with 50% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 17, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 18, 2007:  Hi 92 Low 76, Sunny with 30% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 19, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 20, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 74, Sunny with 50% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 21, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 30% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 22, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 23, 2007:  Hi 92 Low 75, Sunny with 50% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 24, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 76, Sunny with 60% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 25, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 27, 2007:  Hi 92 Low 75, Sunny with 30% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 28, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 29, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 76, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 30, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

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Don Little

I hope your kidding jim

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spockvr6

(syersj @ Dec. 06 2006,13:37)

QUOTE
What do you mean Accuweather is whacked.  I can give a forecast for central Florida 7 MONTHS from now.  Here is my forecast for Tampa FL on the following dates 15-30 July 2007.  I gaurantee I am within 3 degrees on every forecast!!!

July 15, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 16, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 75, Sunny with 50% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 17, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 18, 2007:  Hi 92 Low 76, Sunny with 30% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 19, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 20, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 74, Sunny with 50% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 21, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 30% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 22, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 23, 2007:  Hi 92 Low 75, Sunny with 50% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 24, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 76, Sunny with 60% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 25, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 27, 2007:  Hi 92 Low 75, Sunny with 30% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 28, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 74, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 29, 2007:  Hi 91 Low 76, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

July 30, 2007:  Hi 90 Low 75, Sunny with 40% chance of afternoon T-Storms.

HAHAHAHAHA!

Good one!

But...that was too easy.

Give me your January 2007 forecast please :D

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spockvr6

(Don_L @ Dec. 06 2006,20:27)

QUOTE
I hope your kidding jim

He's serious.

The weather here in summer, especially in coastal and semi-coastal areas, is easily predictable with regard to lows and highs.  Sometimes, the difference between normal high and record high falls within, or very close to, that nice 3F window Jim has given himself.

Example---

The highest temp my weather station has recorded this year was 95.4F on August 4, 2006.  The average high for my area for August 4 is 92F.

Thank you Gulf of Mexico and afternoon westerly breezes  :;):

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spockvr6

(epicure3 @ Dec. 05 2006,15:15)

QUOTE
No. You are correct...they are whacked in the head. :o

I have noticed this about their forecasts for the last few years. They have even had it snowing in San Diego at times. They always end up fixing it as you get closer to the forecast date. Seems to be only a west coast thing.

Id say its also an East coast thing :D

Accuweather had forecast Tarpon Springs, FL for a high of 67F today.  My weather station logged 79.9F  ???

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spockvr6

Also...I have heard it stated that accuweather forecasts are all computer generated.  Im not sure if thats true, but many of their forecasts do seem to be something that was not checked by a homo sapiens before publishing :D

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SunnyFl

(syersj @ Dec. 06 2006,13:37)

QUOTE
What do you mean Accuweather is whacked.  I can give a forecast for central Florida 7 MONTHS from now.  Here is my forecast for Tampa FL on the following dates 15-30 July 2007.  I gaurantee I am within 3 degrees on every forecast!!!

Oh geez, too funny!!  good shot, Jim :D

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NBTX11

(spockvr6 @ Dec. 06 2006,21:17)

QUOTE
HAHAHAHAHA!

Good one!

But...that was too easy.

Give me your January 2007 forecast please :D

Can't do January.  It's too variable.  But summer in FL is easy.  Don't forget, I lived in Tampa for 5 years, so I am well aware that there is little variation in temp in the summer.

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Don Little

must be nice with that kind of predictability, then for that matter those could be 08 and 09 numbers too.

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Kathy

(SunnyFl @ Dec. 05 2006,22:33)

QUOTE
[:o

Palmy, those 15-day guesstimates can be useful.  Read them to spot which way the forecasts are trending.  As the day you're concerned about approaches, are the forecasts for it getting warmer - or colder.  Comparing the forecasts can also indicate whether a front is speeding up or slowing down, or if its impact is increasing or diminishing.

I actually (gritted my teeth and) read their site before going out of state.  

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SunnyFl

(Kathy @ Dec. 07 2006,11:59)

QUOTE
Sunny, I agree with Palmy about the West Coast at least.  I never go to that site, but just checked it and couldn't believe that they  have snow in the forecast and mid-20's in the forecast for my locale in the next 12 days!  Other sites have us in the 40-48F range at nite for the next 12 days!  No accurate trends there....I wouldn't scare yourself if you flying out here anyway by checking that site.

Wow - sounds as if inaccuweather is even worse for the West Coast than it is here  :D

At least when I'm following a trend, it gives me a good idea which way the temps n' precip are going - but I only refer to it for places here in the South.  Which is probably a bit more predictable than where you are.

(elHoagie @ Dec. 06,2006)

QUOTE
I like the "area discussion" on the NOAA site.  They usually discuss not only the forecast, but how well the various models converged to produce that forecast.  If all the models converged well then it's a safe bet the forecast will be close to what happens, but when the models don't converge well then there is a wide range of possible weather....

Yeah, I like reading the Discussions, too.  Especially when a cold snap threatens - or during Season when the models see something.... um.... icky looming :P

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Palmy

I cant believe that they actually forcast snow several times in the next few weeks where I am. I think that there should atleast be an alarm if something doenst seem right so that the "accuweather forecasts"  should take a look. I never see that, they are sticking with the snow. I never feel comfortable with that whacked forcast. I know it just cant be right. Im glad Im not alone.

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Neofolis

I have a problem with long range forecasts from all sites.  I don't see how you can even use them to check trends, unless the US long forecasts are different to here.  Here the forecasts just change totally with almost every update.  It doesn't show any trends, just that they've changed their minds.  By the time the tenth day arrives, the prediction can have changed dramatically every day, so it is difficult to see any trend.  Generally the further out the forecast the greater the change, but even that is not always the case.

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galveston1602

Here is my example of whacked...

everyone else is calling for ~35-36 degrees tonight for us

accuwhacked.jpg

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epicure3

(elHoagie @ Dec. 06 2006,13:15)

QUOTE
I like the "area discussion" on the NOAA site.  They usually discuss not only the forecast, but how well the various models converged to produce that forecast.  If all the models converged well then it's a safe bet the forecast will be close to what happens, but when the models don't converge well then there is a wide range of possible weather....

Yeah, but they use imperial numbers. :;):

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SubTropicRay

Zachary,

The Accuweather forecast between 10-15 days changes daily.  It goes up then come back down.  When it's all said and done, your guess is as good as theirs.  They love to forecast lower than NWS so if it comes to fruition, they can say how much better their services/products are.  The blogs are full of stuff like "Don't enjoy the warmth for too long" and "Massive amount of cold air heading down from Canada".  It's all done for effect.

Jack,

The NWS forecast discussion rules.  I read the local discussion daily for hints on what is to come.  The local TV meteorologists quote almost directly from it later that day.

Ray

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SunnyFl

(Ray @ Tampa,Dec. 13 2006,22:35)

QUOTE
Zachary,

The Accuweather forecast between 10-15 days changes daily.  It goes up then come back down.  When it's all said and done, your guess is as good as theirs.  They love to forecast lower than NWS so if it comes to fruition, they can say how much better their services/products are.  The blogs are full of stuff like "Don't enjoy the warmth for too long" and "Massive amount of cold air heading down from Canada".  It's all done for effect.

Yup.  And this is the outfit that doesn't want NWS products readily available to the public (ever noticed how Bastardi disparages them by referring to them as "government weather" - as if there were something wrong with that, grrrrrr)  :angry:

FOTMI, the only weather service that is completely free from the need to play for ratings is... the NWS.  They don't need to hype anything.  

This is probably why they seem to be more reliable, but that's just my op.

Jack,

The NWS forecast discussion rules.  I read the local discussion daily for hints on what is to come.  The local TV meteorologists quote almost directly from it later that day.

Ray

I find it to be quite interesting - love reading what the reasoning is behind the forecast as well.

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SubTropicRay

Joe Bastardi is Mr. Doom and Gloom this time of year.  One year I paid for a few months of his professional/premium services for a little bit of added "insight" on what was upcoming.  He was right a few times but most of it was again, for effect.  Imagine of Accuweather had a television media outlet!

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elHoagie

(epicure3 @ Dec. 10 2006,20:51)

QUOTE

(elHoagie @ Dec. 06 2006,13:15)

QUOTE
I like the "area discussion" on the NOAA site.  They usually discuss not only the forecast, but how well the various models converged to produce that forecast.  If all the models converged well then it's a safe bet the forecast will be close to what happens, but when the models don't converge well then there is a wide range of possible weather....

Yeah, but they use imperial numbers. :;):

I know!  I'm tired of those bastards discriminating against metrically inclined US citizens.  Maybe I'll hire SoCal Dave to help me sue the NOAA....

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SubTropicRay

All the media outlets have been wrong about this El Nino for Florida.  I believe the month of December has brought about a whopping trace of rain.

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Dec. 15 2006,08:52)

QUOTE
 I believe the month of December has brought about a whopping trace of rain.

A whole 0.12" at my place ???

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SubTropicRay

Hi Larry,

I think that's about .12" greater than what my rain gauge says.  Thanks to the great El Nino rain we've been getting, I'll be back out there with the hose this weekend.

Ray

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Dec. 15 2006,10:15)

QUOTE
Hi Larry,

I think that's about .12" greater than what my rain gauge says.  Thanks to the great El Nino rain we've been getting, I'll be back out there with the hose this weekend.

Ray

El Nino or not...I still get mushrooms in my mulch beds!

I love reclaimed water!

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SubTropicRay

I wish I had some of that stuff.  Using potable drinking water for irrigation has never made much sense to me.

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galveston1602

I wanna know how larry is reclaiming water in his HOA neighborhood...  you do have a HOA dont ya larry?

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NM_PALM_BOY

Hey All,

BOTH Weather.com AND Accuweather are wacked! They are for-profit, commercial entities that only care about making money! I have noticed that on both websites they are "inaccurate" on climatological data and forcasting. The NWS is the only reliable source.

I don't know if you guys have heard this one, but Accuweather is trying to sue the goverment, claiming that they are giving out free information and infringing on their right to "sell" weather data.

Doug

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Scott Mcintosh

I must have hit the jackpot for rain in the Tampa area.This month .13,let me go turn my reclaimed water sprinklers on again.    Scott

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