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December Thread


Neofolis

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(syersj @ Dec. 07 2006,23:13)

QUOTE
Well.........Orlando's average winter highs/lows, and record lows are almost IDENTICAL to Tampa's.  So I wonder how much being near the coast helps.  

Look at where Tampa AP sits on the map.....north of the bay.  Thus, when the bad events come rolling down with northerly winds.....theres not much benefit from the water.

Now, look at the St. Pete readings compared to Orlando on the typical cold night....legions apart!   You will not find Royal lined streets in orlando anywhere, but they are present by the thousands (literally) in St. Pete (and other areas near the water).

And, a quick drive around coastal areas (where there are no official reporting stations) will show (by visually seeing what is growing) that these areas stay far warmer than Orlando over the long haul.

This is not a dig on Orlando, it just physics.  And hot dang if I dont wish that I lived closer to the Gulf and a bit further south!  The temps in my yard are certainly closer to Orlando's long term than they are the prime coastal areas around here  :angry:

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(syersj @ Dec. 07 2006,23:13)

QUOTE
 I mean, obviously, if your right on the coast, for example, Tarpon Springs, or St. Pete, it helps big time.  But 10-15 miles inland, not very much at all.  It just seems there is diminishing returns not very far inland.

Very true....the Gulf/Bay effect drops off quickly the father north one gets.  Theres no doubt about that.

In Tarpon Springs this is especially true as this area is on the "fringe" when the cold ones roll through.  If one sits smack dab on the water, its notably warmer  than just a mile inland (again one can see this with the palms growing there).  In St. Pete, the effects come much father inland.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 08 2006,00:28)

QUOTE
Maybe the warming effects of a large body of water can be described with a physics equation that closely resembles gravity. The benefits of a body of water may be inversely proportional to the sqaure of the distance one is from the water. Isn't that how these sorts of natural forces tend to work? And the size of the body of water would be important as well as a coefficient of magnitude of the effect of the body of water. Sorry, I only had Physics with calculus 1 and 2 and no further....Plus I was not that good at it. I am only saying this so someone more intelligent can correct me and come up with a proper hypothesis.

Bill-

Its way over my head too (and likelt everyon elses as otherwise the forecasts would be more accurate)!

But, I suspect the variables would be water body mass, water body temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity level, salinity level, and God only knows what else!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Ok, guys......how did we all do this morning?

20.9f here in my backyard for a low..

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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It went down to 8°C/46°F here, but is not due to get any warmer today and we are due three cold nights now 1-3°C/34-37°F with freezes predicted for much of the country.

How were the temps in your garden enclosures Bobby?

Larry you could add variables like land countours and ground cover i.e. low growing vegetation, forest, built up, etc. to your equation, which would have a fair impact on temperature distribution and also be very difficult to calculate accurately.

]

Corey Lucas-Divers

Dorset, UK

Ave Jul High 72F/22C (91F/33C Max)

Ave Jul Low 52F/11C (45F/7C Min)

Ave Jan High 46F/8C (59F/15C Max)

Ave Jan Low 34F/1C (21F/-6C Min)

Ave Rain 736mm pa

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How were the temps in your garden enclosures Bobby?

No problem, Corey....  The enclosure that I have most of my actively growing stuff in stayed around 58f, the Winter-protection structures I kept around 45f for an overnight low.... It's a balance between keeping everything warm and keeping some money in my pockets....lol

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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I brought home two data loggers from work yesterday.  I put one into the top of the trunk of my palm where the spear comes out (approx 36" from ground).  The other I put on the ground next to the palm.

The one at the top of the trunk bottomed out at 20.6F

The one on the ground is a bit of a mystery.  I covered the base of the palm with a blanket around 10:00 last night to see what kind of effect this would have.  The trunk of the palm is also covered with Christmas lights.  The reading from both loggers was 31.55 at 9:13. However the one that was on the ground under the blanket slowly warmed up to 50F.  I suspect that the thermocouple may have been too close to one of the lights.  When I put the sleeping bag down I may have slid the thermocouple against the trunk right by or touching a light or something.  It did feel quite warm in there when I reached in to pull out the logger this morning though.  I only used the normal small lights.  I'm going to have to re-try this experiment.

I'll keep you posted.  Weather like this is good for learning.  I don't have to be worried about losing my tree, but I can get an idea what kind of help this protection will give me if I really need it.  I think next time I'll make sure the thermocouple is about a foot away from the trunk, to assess the effect of the blanket without much influence from the lights.  Then I may re-try with the thermocouple near the trunk, but make sure that it's not touching lights to either validate or dismiss my last test.

Fyi:  The thermocouple inserted into the top of the trunk was no where near any lights.  I recently verified calibration at 140F, 73F, and 0F on both loggers with an NIST traceable device (in case anyone cares).

Steve Johnson

Northeast of Atlanta, GA  

Zone 7b

Perfect weather for humans, borderline for palms

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(BobbyinNY @ Dec. 08 2006,07:21)

QUOTE
Ok, guys......how did we all do this morning?

Lows summary around Tampa Bay---

Larry's Jungle - Tarpon Springs - 48.0F

USF station - Sponge Docks - Tarpon Springs - 47.84F

USF Station - Fred Howard Park - Tarpon Springs - 47.12F

USF Station - Campbell Park - 51.44F

Albert Whitted AP - 52F

Clearwater AP - 48F

Tampa AP - 50F

Vandenberg AP - 48F

MacDill AFB - 50F

And...just for some extra "beating us while were down fun"...the low in Key West was 68F! :P

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Lows summary around Tampa Bay---

Larry's Jungle - Tarpon Springs - 48.0F

USF station - Sponge Docks - Tarpon Springs - 47.84F

USF Station - Fred Howard Park - Tarpon Springs - 47.12F

USF Station - Campbell Park - 51.44F

Albert Whitted AP - 52F

Clearwater AP - 48F

Tampa AP - 50F

Vandenberg AP - 48F

MacDill AFB - 50F

Oh, Larry... this front was nothing to you guys..... Didn't you get lower temps in October one night?.... I think the Southern States got the worst of it (NC, SC,GA,etc)

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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Heres the NWS gradient map as of 845 AM this morning.

gradient-12-8-06-845AM.jpg

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(BobbyinNY @ Dec. 08 2006,09:32)

QUOTE
Oh, Larry... this front was nothing to you guys..... Didn't you get lower temps in October one night?.... I think the Southern States got the worst of it (NC, SC,GA,etc)

Bobby-

The winds were fairly stiff and made it feel alot colder than the thermometer stated.

Tonight is forecast to be colder, but hopefully it will still stay in the lower 40's...but Im not ruling out upper 30's!

It was not colder in October in my yard, but it was on 11/19/06 where it dropped to 45.9F.  I suspect tonight will drop below that if the forecasts are even remotely correct.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Whoa.....looks like the temps dropped again!

I just checked my weather station online and see that the temp bottomed at 738AM, then started rising as usual, then started to drop again around 9AM.  Its now dropped to 46.9F in my yard!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(spockvr6 @ Dec. 08 2006,09:43)

QUOTE
Whoa.....looks like the temps dropped again!

I just checked my weather station online and see that the temp bottomed at 738AM, then started rising as usual, then started to drop again around 9AM.  Its now dropped to 46.9F in my yard!

Maybe the warming effects of a large body of water can be described with a physics equation that closely resembles gravity. The benefits of a body of water may be inversely proportional to the sqaure of the distance one is from the water. Isn't that how these sorts of natural forces tend to work? And the size of the body of water would be important as well as a coefficient of magnitude of the effect of the body of water. Sorry, I only had Physics with calculus 1 and 2 and no further....Plus I was not that good at it. I am only saying this so someone more intelligent can correct me and come up with a proper hypothesis.

Larry

The polar front passed thru central Florida overnight.  Now, unfortunately the arctic air follows  :(   NWS-Tampa is predicting 39 at airport Saturday AM.  That is cold but minus damaging levels ex orchids/bauhinia.  Believe Florida will 'miss the bullet' with this arctic assault though north state/panhandle weren't so lucky.

Bill, right on with the physics of meteorology  :P   The study of climatic dynamics/probabilities.  That's why I freak on disparities/ diversity directly affected by  ocean/mountains/valleys :

NWS 7:00AM

L.A. DOWNTOWN : 64  

LAX : 57

LONG BEACH : 47  

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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(gsn @ Dec. 07 2006,22:15)

QUOTE
Larry,

I guess what I don't see is, Ocala is also inland and not very far to the north of Orlando,but there is a big difference in the forecasted temps.

All of the forecasts I mentioned it's like they are expecting the front to  fizzle, or stall south of Ocala, Leesburg and Tavares. At least as far as the low temps are concerned.

I know that Orlando is farther south in latitude ,but not that much..

Just seems strange to me, and a little disconcerting!

Scott-

I see what you are saying.

I suppose this has to do with where the pressure systems sit and which way the wind is blowing?

All this crap is too complex for me......

But, In Titusville, if these winds keep up the way they are going, you should be sitting pretty tonight.  Down here in Tarpon Springs, we might be heading for the 30's  :P

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(happ @ Dec. 08 2006,10:26)

QUOTE
Larry

The polar front passed thru central Florida overnight.  

Happ-

My weather station, at this very moment, is logging the highest barometric pressure (30.33 in Hg) yet seen since installing the station in May 2006.  And, the pressures are rising.....

What does this portend?

And, what is the defintion of an "arctic front" and a "polar front"?

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Bottomed out at 49.8F at some point last night or this morning in my yard. It has struggled to warm up 55.6F at 10:30AM. I think I am getting a better weather station for Christmas that will record times with temps etc. and report to weather underground.

Parrish, FL

Zone 9B

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(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 08 2006,10:32)

QUOTE
I think I am getting a better weather station for Christmas that will record times with temps etc. and report to weather underground.

Bill-

If Santa brings you one.....I think youll be pleased!

They are alot of fun to play with (and watch)  :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(ruskinPalms @ Dec. 08 2006,10:32)

QUOTE
It has struggled to warm up 55.6F at 10:30AM.

Not even close to that in my yard.......temps havent even broken 50F yet!  They seem to be holding steady in the upper 40's.  ACK!.......we need some warm up today to fare better tonight.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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These low dewpoints are also disturbing me.  My station is showing a current dewpoint of 24.4F....which I believe is the lowest it has ever recorded.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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We've now hit 30F.  The dewpoint is 6F.  Purty cold and dry for the South!

Steve Johnson

Northeast of Atlanta, GA  

Zone 7b

Perfect weather for humans, borderline for palms

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(Steve @ Dec. 08 2006,09:09)

QUOTE
I brought home two data loggers from work yesterday.  I put one into the top of the trunk of my palm where the spear comes out (approx 36" from ground).  The other I put on the ground next to the palm.

The one at the top of the trunk bottomed out at 20.6F

The one on the ground is a bit of a mystery.  I covered the base of the palm with a blanket around 10:00 last night to see what kind of effect this would have.  The trunk of the palm is also covered with Christmas lights.  The reading from both loggers was 31.55 at 9:13. However the one that was on the ground under the blanket slowly warmed up to 50F.  I suspect that the thermocouple may have been too close to one of the lights.  When I put the sleeping bag down I may have slid the thermocouple against the trunk right by or touching a light or something.  It did feel quite warm in there when I reached in to pull out the logger this morning though.  I only used the normal small lights.  I'm going to have to re-try this experiment.

I'll keep you posted.  Weather like this is good for learning.  I don't have to be worried about losing my tree, but I can get an idea what kind of help this protection will give me if I really need it.  I think next time I'll make sure the thermocouple is about a foot away from the trunk, to assess the effect of the blanket without much influence from the lights.  Then I may re-try with the thermocouple near the trunk, but make sure that it's not touching lights to either validate or dismiss my last test.

Fyi:  The thermocouple inserted into the top of the trunk was no where near any lights.  I recently verified calibration at 140F, 73F, and 0F on both loggers with an NIST traceable device (in case anyone cares).

Great post.

I too have experimented with lights, coverings and thermocouples.  And, the results are sometimes better than expected!

Re: the 30F rise using what I assume are mini-Christmas lights....How many Watts of lights are you using?

I have measured a 30F rise under a double layer "palm sock" (one fabric sock and one tarp sock) on one of my Adonidia trunks (roughly 6 ft of trunk) using 125W of rope light.  So, for a palm with 3 ft of trunk and good insulation, that 30F rise might not be all that far off.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Updated forecast from Thomas Giella at Florida Daily Weather Discussion---

http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

154 Published Friday December 8, 2006 at 11:00 am EST

The arctic air arrived in full force across the northern part of the state during the overnight hours. Minimum temperatures fell below freezing all across the region, with some inland areas of the panhandle west region seeing a hard freeze. The cold spot was 22 deg. at Crestview CWOP #KI4PEQ. The subfreezing line penetrated into the peninsula north region down to around the Gainesville latitude.

As the trajectory of the arctic high pressure system has been north and then east of Dallas, TX, on the peninsula an early moderating NE component to the low level wind direction has begun. At 11:00 am low level dew points are in the 40's on the east side of the central peninsula, in the 30's inland and in the 20's along the west side of the central peninsula.

Tonight the wind will become calm across the peninsula north region and near calm across the peninsula north region. A NE-NNE wind flow of 3-8 mph will continue across the central and south peninsula, saving the regions from a freeze event.

For early Saturday morning December 9, 2006 it looks like a hard freeze across the panhandle north region, a significant freeze across the peninsula north region and a light freeze on the north central peninsula region down to approximately S.R. 48 and west of U.S. 27. The rest of the central peninsula region will see mid 30's to low 40's, with mid 40's to low 50's across the south peninsula region. Minimum wind chill temperatures should be near to slightly below freezing on the central peninsula.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry,

WEATHER MEN!!

Well he sure backed off his freeze predictions of central peninsula and inland southern peninsula with this mornings update!

Like I said before "edgeumatcated" guesses!!!

LOWs last night

Orlando         55 F

Kissimmee     48 F

Titusville        54 F

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Larry,

WEATHER MEN!!

Well he sure backed off his freeze predictions of central peninsula and inland southern peninsula with this mornings update!

Like I said before "edgeumatcated" guesses!!!

Yeah......these things never seem certain till....well till they pass :D

LOWs last night

Orlando         55 F

Kissimmee     48 F

Titusville        54 F

Where is the Orlando reading coming from?  When I scanned area sites earlier today I believe 48F was being reported.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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I just answered my own question.......

The lows at many stations (the ones listed above included) occured very late in the AM, so the early morning reports, which would usually be the lows, are higher by significant amounts.

The same thing happened at my station as I noted above.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry,

IN-ACCU-weather!  ???

I also made a mistake on the Orlando location, I looked at 12/7 which would have ended at midnight before the coldest temps arrived.

Here are the correct low temps an actual location.

Orlando-Executive Airport                                    48 F

Kissimmee- Orlando International Airport            48 F

Titusville-NASA Shuttle Facility                              54 F

It should be noted that the Shuttle facility would probably be warmer that Titusville, because it is on Merrit Island,surrounded by the Atlantic Ocaean and the Indian and Banana River,and Mosquito Lagoon!

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Ah yes....good ole "un"Accuweather :D  Ill have to go check them now for Tarpon Springs to see what they say just for yucks.

Also, it looks like there is another Titusville station on the mainland (KTIX) at the regional airport.

I have a station on weatherunderground.com, so I am always searching all these other stations out.  I neve realized there were so many out there logging data.......the wonders of the internet!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Ocala much colder than Orlando is in part caused by the mid Florida ridge, as well as other factors Larry already commented on.  The lay of the land, cold drainage, etc cannot be interpreted from the forecast models but play a role in those forecasts and observed weather patterns.

Alan

Tampa, Florida

Zone - 10a

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Pitiful pitiful pitiful warmup here today in FL.  

These are the temps at 130PM this afternoon.

gradient-12-8-06-130PM.jpg

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Wow... look at how nice and "toasty warm" the country is...... :(

post-57-1165609881_thumb.jpg

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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And this is what FL looked like...at 745PM tonight.

Me thinks this is going to be a rough night for many of us.

12-8-745PM.jpg

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(spockvr6 @ Dec. 08 2006,10:30)

QUOTE

(happ @ Dec. 08 2006,10:26)

QUOTE
Larry

The polar front passed thru central Florida overnight.  

Happ-

My weather station, at this very moment, is logging the highest barometric pressure (30.33 in Hg) yet seen since installing the station in May 2006.  And, the pressures are rising.....

What does this portend?

And, what is the defintion of an "arctic front" and a "polar front"?

Larry,

Polar fronts essentially define the mid-latitudes [uS/Canada border].  Upper latitude [Alaska/Yukon] lie within the circulation of arctic air.  High pressure chases low/warm/humid/showery atmosphere.  The coupling/merging of the polar & arctic fronts, driven by very strong high pressure, has spread out over the Southeast.  

Low temperature is the absence of moisture.  That's why citrus growers turn the sprinklers on or use wind machines to circulate the air.

BTW, "Weather Physicist Thomas Giella" is great.  NASA provides outstanding scientists; a definite plus for weather nuts in Florida  :laugh:

Good luck tonight  :)

Atmosphere is finally moistening up as marine layer moves onshore  :D

LA : 79/59  

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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To all

If you havent already found it on the web, weather underground posts data from all of the personal weather stations in your area that are publishing to the net. just type in zip code a scroll down to bottom. http://www.wunderground.com

I think central florida should be fine, wind is comining with NE component and dewpoints increasing. By sunday back to normal and 10 day looks great.

NW Hillsborough County, FL (Near Tampa)

10 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico

Border of Zone 9b/10a

Lakefront Microclimate

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(tropical1 @ Dec. 08 2006,23:28)

QUOTE
To all

If you havent already found it on the web, weather underground posts data from all of the personal weather stations in your area that are publishing to the net. just type in zip code a scroll down to bottom. http://www.wunderground.com

Great link tropical1.

My station is there as well :D

Its the default for 34689 and is station KFLTARPO3 - Harbor Oaks - US Alternate 19, Tarpon Springs, FL.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(tropical1 @ Dec. 08 2006,23:28)

QUOTE
I think central florida should be fine, wind is comining with NE component and dewpoints increasing. By sunday back to normal and 10 day looks great.

You are a sage :D

At bedtime, I was doubting the 43F forecast, but when I woke up this AM I saw that your assessment was correct.  The low was reached in the wee hours of the AM (42.6F at my house at 229 AM) and temps have been warming ever since.  Dewpoints have also risen about 10F since late last night as well.

However, I still like winds to come from the NW rather than NE as the Gulf is a heckuva lot close to me that the Atlantic :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Also.....as manifestation of the NE wind direction, locations on the east coast at the same latitudes as Tampa stayed about 20F warmer!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(happ @ Dec. 08 2006,22:38)

QUOTE
Polar fronts essentially define the mid-latitudes [uS/Canada border].  Upper latitude [Alaska/Yukon] lie within the circulation of arctic air.  High pressure chases low/warm/humid/showery atmosphere.  

OK...thanks for that explanation!

I suppose the other source of a cold front is the Pacific?  These might be the best "cold" fronts to receive I suspect :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry-

That's the great thing about the peninsula. The only wind direction with no modifying water component is straight North.

NW Hillsborough County, FL (Near Tampa)

10 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico

Border of Zone 9b/10a

Lakefront Microclimate

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(tropical1 @ Dec. 09 2006,08:34)

QUOTE
Larry-

That's the great thing about the peninsula. The only wind direction with no modifying water component is straight North.

Unless one is in a few perfect locations around here!

:angry:  :angry:  :angry:

But...well take anything we can get. Maybe next time we can get a NW wind though  :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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The event turned out to be less bruising & another example of 'mother nature' outfoxing computers models.  

Glad for you guys.  You'll like the new week much better as will the US, in general.   :D

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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