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EL NINO TO CONTINUE INTO SPRING

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happ

"Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010".

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

rainforecastforfeb-mar-apr.gif

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happ

A sign of seasonal transition is the formation of a marine layer tonight. By late spring\ early summer we are tired of overnight coastal low clouds but in February it signals warmer nights. Winter will re-exert itself w/ storm systems moving in starting this weekend.

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PalmGuyWC

It's been very mild with spring like weather in the San Francisco Bay area for the past week with highs of low to mid 70's. Since early Dec when I had two nights down to 24/25F, I don't believe I've had freezing since then. It's very unusual not to have frost in Jan and Feb at my place. All of the early flowering trees are in full bloom and so are my daffodils, but the nice weather is coming to an end today with fronts moving in for the next week.

Dick

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happ

Light showers overnight produced around a quarter of an inch. Appears somewhat weak systems into this coming week w/o the tropical connection necessary for heavy rainfall. But forecast for March may bring more typical El Nino conditions [strong storms] back to California.

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PalmGuyWC

I got a little over 1/2" of rain from the latest storm, but it was very weak with mild temps. with mostly drizzle or very light rain. My nightly minimums for the past 2 months have been well above normal with almost constant cloud cover. Another stronger storm is suppose to move in on Friday.

Dick

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OCPalmnut

Happ,

Does this mean we should expect more rain storms in socal and continued lower temps?

- David

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happ

Happ,

Does this mean we should expect more rain storms in socal and continued lower temps?

- David

David,

The systems coming ashore have been weak but a storm this weekend looks to have better dynamics [ie. colder] so thundershowers could be heavy if you get one. The outlook for March is favorable but this El Nino has been repeatedly interrupted by strange arctic ridging and resulting split jet stream. Subtropical moisture has been unrelenting for Texas\ Gulf Coast. No drought exist over the entire southern half of the U.S. I wonder if the water authority will remove restrictions? Coldest minimums occurred in early December for the West Coast. Overall, temps have been normal since then [40's-low 50's] with the absence of further arctic air. A mild winter but not particularly warm. Let hope frequent showers in March will fill all the reservoirs in California\ Nevada\ Arizona. ;)

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gsytch

One aspect of this cold overlooked is that places like my coastal town in Tampa Bay will battle the cold GOM. Tuesday we never made it to 70F because the sea breeze kicked in by 12 noon. By 430 sea fog rolled in off the cold waters dropping it to 58F by 5pm, meanwhile Lakeland baked in 80F and at 5pm they were still at 72F. It does keep our nights up but prevents any heat forming during the day. We need heat now for things to grow, and for us to thaw! Greg

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happ

gsytch,

What you describe is typical of coastal California because the Pacific has a cold but short reach. Temp spreads of over 30 degrees occur within 10 miles from beach to valleys if near mts.

Pretty strong storm offshore w/ a few circulating lows. Rainfall rates should be high for periods. More snow in Sierra Nevada :mrlooney:

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Jeff in St Pete

We are having a very strange month and some folks around here are blaming it on El Niño. February is normally one of our hottest and driest months of the year with clear skies and little to no rainfall. Over the past few weeks we have received about 8" (203 mm) of rain and many days have been cloudy.

I seem to be one of the few people who are thankful for the rain and cloudcover. We didn't receive one drop for the first 39 days of 2010 and everything started dying back. Now the rains are making everything nice and green again... even if the tourists don't like it :mrlooney:

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Cristóbal

gsytch,

What you describe is typical of coastal California because the Pacific has a cold but short reach. Temp spreads of over 30 degrees occur within 10 miles from beach to valleys if near mts.

Pretty strong storm offshore w/ a few circulating lows. Rainfall rates should be high for periods. More snow in Sierra Nevada :mrlooney:

My precipitation for 1 july - 28 february, 178 mm / 7.01 inches.

This is normal. In most years it is 6-8 inches. But may be theres precipitation more higher than normal in the area of los angeles and san francisco ?

I can say for here theres no extra precipitation this year of el niño. Some bad storms, yes, but extra precipitation no. And now we go to march, in this month the weather changes. Many times theres rain in the area of los angeles but nothing here only some clouds and wind. I hope we have some more rain for this year, but it is now very late for this.

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happ

Cristóbal

San Diego has a little over 8 inches which is slightly above normal. Los Angeles is over 14 inches [4 inches above normal thus far]. This winter has been above normal rainfall but not too much over the norm. Maximum temps for January & Febuary averaged near normal [December was below normal]. Minimums were slightly above normal over the 3 months. Nothing spectacular but if storms continue into March we should end the rain year above normal.

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BS Man about Palms

I picked up about 2" in the last week here.

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happ

Thankfully the pattern favors more storms like several days last week w/ best chance of rain this coming weekend.

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MattyB

I got 3/4" this weekend.

Bill, no rain amounts allowed unless you have a rain gauge. You're wheelbarrow dosen't count.

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gsytch

Happ- As this winter continues, I often thought of the "california" climate! Sunday morning it was still 51F when I woke up. 16 Mi inland it was 37F. Sun afternoon was 61F...Lakeland was 65F and our 61F fell to 58F by 4pm. LORD when will this end? Greg

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happ

Happ- As this winter continues, I often thought of the "california" climate! Sunday morning it was still 51F when I woke up. 16 Mi inland it was 37F. Sun afternoon was 61F...Lakeland was 65F and our 61F fell to 58F by 4pm. LORD when will this end? Greg

Good observation, Greg. The winter pattern over the past 2 months in the Southeast does remind me of California during winter, esp northern California where coconuts will not grow :lol:

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BS Man about Palms

I got 3/4" this weekend.

Bill, no rain amounts allowed unless you have a rain gauge. You're wheelbarrow dosen't count.

I have a rain gauge still in the box. Also, I'll have you know I use a 30 gal trashcan thank you very much. :P

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epicure3

I got 3/4" this weekend.

Bill, no rain amounts allowed unless you have a rain gauge. You're wheelbarrow dosen't count.

How about counting the amount that gets up my nose. That's known as the Padrovich-Boddington method. They won a Nobel Prize for Science with that.

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MattyB

John, you need an intervention. I'm busy.

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epicure3

John, you need an intervention. I'm busy.

WHOA! I was told I could count on my sponsor. What a load of hooey. :bemused:

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happ

Surprised that the rain gauge measured 0.08 from overnight shower [anyone else observe rain?]. All the storms basically wash out south of Pt. Conception but a cold upper low is moving south for more substantial rainfall this weekend. Could experience some chilly post-frontal nights but warmer later next week.

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PalmGuyWC

Several "waves" of moisture have moved through the Bay Area and N. Calif in the past few days, mostly at night. I can't really call them fronts because they were narrow and moved through fairly fast. There was very little temperature change behind the waves. This morning was the coolest temp. I've had in over a month. It was 38F. My rain total from all these waves was about 1 inch. No freezing temps here since the first part of Dec., and most lows have been in the 48 to 52 F range. Except for early Dec. this has been a very mild winter for N. Calif. Spring is in the air and things are starting to grow, especially my weeds and winter grasses.

Dick

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happ

Hi Dick,

Even this weekend's storm isn't looking very rainy for Nor Cal but at least the Sierra snowpack is above normal. Love how green the foothills are. In 2 weeks I will visit Anza-Borrego but understand that the wild flowers are peaking right now. Spring is here. :mrlooney:

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MattyB

It was wet this morning but nothing measureable in East County SD.

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Cristóbal

No precipitation in Tijuana. Only some clouds and winds.

This is common in this month many months of march are dry. The storms go by LA and San Francisco but not more south.

Edited by Cristóbal

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happ

Cristóbal

Baja may benefit the most, once the next storm moves ashore. Unfortunately for LA, the bulk of the energy is well offshore and into Baja California. Without the subtropical jet, rainfall is quite limited :bummed:

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happ

Nice surprise w/ over an inch of rainfall. Some thundershowers yesterday really helped boost the moisture content followed by gentle rainfall overnight. :D

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MattyB

We got .7" in Spring Valley this weekend.

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PalmGuyWC

Yikes! A surprise. It's 35.6F in Walnut Creek this morning with frost on the roof tops. This is the first frost here of 2110. Only the mid 50's predicted for a high today. Widely scattered buildups yesterday with only sprinkles, but hail in some areas of the bay area. This could well be the last frost of the year as clouds are supposed to move in later today.

Dick

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happ

Quick weak storms are moving thru California every few days w/ reinforcing cold air following. NWS_LA issued this concern:

"ALSO WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES ABOVE...ANY LOCATION THAT HAS CALM WINDS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WILL HAVE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME COMPUTER MDLS SHOW FREEZING TEMPS IN THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AND VLYS...THIS IS PROBABLY OVER DONE BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED".

Very windy and chilly today & tomorrow. Recorded 45F\ 7.2C here & it could easily get colder tonight. :unsure:

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MattyB

A high of 60F here today. Brrrrrrr. What is this Florida? :lol: Very windy outside today.

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osideterry

36.7F at my place this morning, my second coldest temp this year. Not worth freakin' out about, but seems cold for March 10!

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epicure3

Yea....cold here too. Down to 43F. Mighty chilly. Get ready for the big warmup though.

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happ

Another cold & windy night. Areas of calm will be very cold w/ frost in inland Santa Barbara county & western San Joaquin valley:

NWS_LA

WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING...A CHILLY NIGHT IS DEVELOPING FOR THE INTERIOR AND FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. PATCHY FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR MOST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER FROST POSSIBLE IN THE OJAI VALLEY AND SOME OF THE EXTREMELY WIND SHELTERED AREAS.

Toasty next week! :wub:

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happ

Anyone experience frost this week? So far half the night temps have been below 50F this month in LA. Another very weak storm may manage to hold together past Pt. Concepción tomorrow.

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BS Man about Palms

Anyone experience frost this week? So far half the night temps have been below 50F this month in LA. Another very weak storm may manage to hold together past Pt. Concepción tomorrow.

Does frost in Florida when I was there count? :blink:

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garrin

It's been very mild with spring like weather in the San Francisco Bay area for the past week with highs of low to mid 70's. Since early Dec when I had two nights down to 24/25F, I don't believe I've had freezing since then. It's very unusual not to have frost in Jan and Feb at my place. All of the early flowering trees are in full bloom and so are my daffodils, but the nice weather is coming to an end today with fronts moving in for the next week.

Dick

Hawai'i has had typical El Nino weather for the first part of this year -- 7 weeks of hot and dry weather which we were told might last well into spring because of the warm current effect. I have seen this happen several years here. But two weeks ago the pattern shifted abruptly to coolish and about one inch of rain each day here (most of it at night). But the clouds have been hanging around the Hilo side most days also keeping the sun from warming us up much. Many days have not gone above low 70's, and that feels really cold to us. I even broke down and bought an electric blanket! However most of the rest of the island chain is still way below normal in rainfall -- typical El Nino conditions.

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PalmGuyWC

Garrin,

Your getting really soft if you had to buy an electric blanket in Hawaii. Come visit N. Calif. and you will see what cool is really like. I use an old quilt (100 years old from Grandma) and 3 dogs plastered on each side of me and one on my feet to keep me warm. How's that for green heat? rolleyes.gif

Dick

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bubba

El Nino continues to effect Florida. Palm Beach had over 7 inches of rain commencing Thursday night thru Friday.This is normally our dry season but PBI has recorded 15.61 inches so far this year when normal to date is 7.64 inches.The only good news is the cold is gone. By May, we will be crying for it's return.

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