"These are not El Nino storms" per JPL

[happ]

Climatologist from Jet Propulsion Lab points out the cold nature of these storms. For example, recorded the first sub-50 minimum for the month last night when it was partly cloud [49F\ 9.4C]. That's cold during storm conditions.

Colleagues:

Here is my take on whether these storms are El Nino. I'm interested in

your ideas on this.

While the rest of the country has been battered by strong, cold outbreaks

bringing storms over the past two weeks, snow and frigid temperatures,

California remained mild and dry. Now it's our turn. Riding an

extremely strong (200+ mile/hour) jet stream out of the Gulf of

Alaska, a conveyor belt of 3 or 4 very strong and wet storms are lined

up to batter all of California this coming week.

The Jet Stream is very powerful (+200 mph) and pushing these wet N.

Pacific storms down the West Coast from the north. This is the pattern that

the rest of the U.S. has had in the past two weeks, but shifted farther west.

I call it the Yukon Express ... they'll be cold storms the rest of

the week. (The next two more powerful storms.) El Nino storms are

different. I figure this is due to a (weak) negative phase of the

Arctic Oscillation.

For Arctic Oscillation weather patterns, see:

http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/arctic_oscillation.html

While not a canonical El Nino pattern, the El Nino warmed subtropics

could be pumping moisture into these storms as they move south and will give

rain and snowfall totals a boost. But not much!

I don't know anyone else that has given this explanation, check

it out. But, this ain't an El Nino pattern. Although I've heard many

TV weather folks channeling El Nino.

Next, California has been suffering continuing drought; CA reservoirs

(including Lakes Mead and Powell) are way down (<50%), we've

been drawing down our groundwater supplies, and most Californians

are rationing. So, all this rain and snowpack is sweet. It won't

cure the drought, but water managers are stoked. Also surfers,

big surf dude! Although the coast is getting a real battering.

Patzert

Edited January 19, 2010 by happ