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California: Are We Next?

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happ

There are strong indicators of a major pattern shift starting in about a week. The good news is that significant rainfall may occur. The bad news is that it could be accompanied by an arctic airmass. A combination similar to what has happened in Florida & the South. I am not a weather drama queen waiting for something interesting to finally happen & this "heads up" could easily not pan out either. But who knows?

Here are excerpts of discussions among AMS_LA chapter meteorologists [also take a look of Kevin Martin's UJEAS model - the impression is that something wet is about to happen & maybe something "cold" :o

"The strong El Niño (similar to 1992) this year and the Arctic Oscillation are going to affect our weather in Southern California – as well as all of California over the next 1 to 3 weeks.

Based on the models input and pulling them over the years, we may see a similar storm and weather type pattern seen as a combination of two years: 1943 and 1983. At the 500 mb level, a trough is forecast to approach the West Coast of the US with a height of only 491 dm at 48 N: 135 W, with the 564 dm “rain contour” running from the west-southwest through Central Baja California in one week. Additionally, along with these very cold upper air features, the moisture fetch at the surface could basically be a “pineapple express” over the Golden State and Northern quarter of Baja. This could make for a very cold, extremely wet and windy next two to three weeks.

Now, let’s see if this really happens…"

Another opinion:

"Day 8-16 "fantasyland" forecast shows the storm door remains open into CA with another system arriving around Jan 19th – Jan 20th and another arriving into SOCAL Jan 22, with another impulse arriving CENCAL/SOCAL on Jan 23rd. The storm door closes on Jan 24th with a strong ridge moving over the West Coast. With very low confidence, the 0Z Fantasyland GFS ends with a COLD POLAR air pattern over CA with Arctic air filtering into CA! Beware… and hope that edits out! "

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Paul The Palm Doctor!

I guess, Happ that anything is plausible, unless negated by informational updates. I didn't think that it would be so cold for so long down here either, so who knows? It's something to watch for on the horizon anyway!

BTW: didn't do too bad right here but I was by no means unscathed, Sunday night especially. Minimum was 36.2 F. Tropical flowering trees apparently hated it, as did Clinostigma samoensis, Iriartea deltoidea, especially. Joeys & Marojejya not too bad surprisingly. Coconuts just clecked with nmarginal brown, but I wouldn't be surprised to see lower fronds brown out by mid-May.

Luego.

Dr. Paul

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happ
I guess, Happ that anything is plausible, unless negated by informational updates. I didn't think that it would be so cold for so long down here either, so who knows? It's something to watch for on the horizon anyway!

BTW: didn't do too bad right here but I was by no means unscathed, Sunday night especially. Minimum was 36.2 F. Tropical flowering trees apparently hated it, as did Clinostigma samoensis, Iriartea deltoidea, especially. Joeys & Marojejya not too bad surprisingly. Coconuts just clecked with nmarginal brown, but I wouldn't be surprised to see lower fronds brown out by mid-May.

Luego.

Dr. Paul

Paul,

36.2F isn't too bad. I already recorded 39F in early December. The effects are noticeable on yellowing veitchia\ ptychosperma & copperleaf, etc. Sounds like you dodged the bullet for the most part, Paul. I hope we don't have a 2010 Freeze - California version :unsure:

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DoomsDave

Praying for false alarms!

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Kathryn

I sure hope California will be spared this year. Didn't you have a bad winter in 2007?

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happ
I sure hope California will be spared this year. Didn't you have a bad winter in 2007?

Yes, 2007 [and 1990] is a bad memory that no one wants to repeat. The cost to agriculture was significant & nearly everyone had some damage to tender palms\ plants. The possible upcoming pattern could open the door to arctic air but if it stays in the form of storms then it may not be as destructive as previous freezes, I hope.

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happ

Here's today's CPC outlook for Jan 19-25

Rain:

rain2010.gif

Temps:

tempsjan2010.gif

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epicure3

One blog I read, WeatherAmerica, I believe said that Feb. was looking more like January at least for the West.

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Tyrone

I hope it doesn't happen, but with So Cal well above average temps so far, the only way to get close to average temps for the rest of winter is lower temps in the near future. I hope not though. I'd love to see the Newport Coconut flower. If the winter stays like it has, it very well could flower.

Best regards

Tyrone

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epicure3
I hope it doesn't happen, but with So Cal well above average temps so far, the only way to get close to average temps for the rest of winter is lower temps in the near future. I hope not though. I'd love to see the Newport Coconut flower. If the winter stays like it has, it very well could flower.

Best regards

Tyrone

Not a chance. That thing is a mutant.

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MattyB

bring on the rain

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happ
I hope it doesn't happen, but with So Cal well above average temps so far, the only way to get close to average temps for the rest of winter is lower temps in the near future. I hope not though. I'd love to see the Newport Coconut flower. If the winter stays like it has, it very well could flower.

Best regards

Tyrone

Hi Tyrone,

It's anything but cold in your part of the world. I saw on TV that Melbourne had a low of 93F\ 33.8C! :blink: Is this summer abnormally warm in Australia?

Pretty much every winter in SoCal experiences periods of warmth that are generally followed by more normal readings. Models vary & change so what appears to be an incredible upcoming pattern shift may not actually materialize. Lately all weather models are showing a wet stretch for California that may last a week or more. It is actually raining in NorCal today & some of the moisture should reach SoCal tomorrow but the real & possibly heavy showers are forecast to start next week. The issue for us is if very cold air accompanies or follows this precipitation.

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Palmy
I am not a weather drama queen

LOLZ!!! Oh come on, happ wouldn't be happ without this lovely trait.

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happ
I am not a weather drama queen

LOLZ!!! Oh come on, happ wouldn't be happ without this lovely trait.

:lol: yes it's hard to conceal my first love :wub: weather nerds are praying for cold & snow!

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epicure3
I am not a weather drama queen

LOLZ!!! Oh come on, happ wouldn't be happ without this lovely trait.

:lol: yes it's hard to conceal my first love :wub: weather nerds are praying for cold & snow!

Me too.......in Big Bear.

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palmcurry

If it happens, it happens.

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Tyrone
I hope it doesn't happen, but with So Cal well above average temps so far, the only way to get close to average temps for the rest of winter is lower temps in the near future. I hope not though. I'd love to see the Newport Coconut flower. If the winter stays like it has, it very well could flower.

Best regards

Tyrone

Hi Tyrone,

It's anything but cold in your part of the world. I saw on TV that Melbourne had a low of 93F\ 33.8C! :blink: Is this summer abnormally warm in Australia?

Yes, it's shaping up to be a hot one this year. I think that 33.8C min is a record for Melbourne. Perth has never recorded a min that high. Adelaide has been copping a hot dry blasting too. We're now entering a heatwave on the west coast today. 35C today then up to the 40's roughly for 3 days on the weekend with no relief in sight afterwards. It cools down to 37C on Tuesday. I think Tassie has been getting boiling too. I saw a forecast for Hobart with a 23C min and a 31C max. Not bad for 42S.

Best regards

Tyrone

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happ

This afternoon's discussion from NWS_SF

"THE BIG SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BEGINS IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATL IMAGERY IS INDC THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE...WITH THE EAST ASIAN JET EXTENDING TO THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A 180-200+ KT JET STRETCHING BETWEEN 30-40N ACROSS THE PACIFIC. WITH SUCH A STRONG JET IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM TRANSVERSING THE PACIFIC. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS".

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PalmGuyWC

The system that moved through the SF Bay area last night fizzled as most have this year. I only got a trace of rain. The good new is, it moved out the fog which I have had for two weeks and the temp. rose to 64F, the first time above 60F this year. It felt down right balmey. More rain forcast for tomorrow.

Dick

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epicure3
This afternoon's discussion from NWS_SF

"THE BIG SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BEGINS IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATL IMAGERY IS INDC THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE...WITH THE EAST ASIAN JET EXTENDING TO THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A 180-200+ KT JET STRETCHING BETWEEN 30-40N ACROSS THE PACIFIC. WITH SUCH A STRONG JET IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM TRANSVERSING THE PACIFIC. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS".

The rain would be great. I'm over the winds though. That last wind storm we had a month ago played havoc with my palms. I'm sure MattyB is done with them as well.

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happ
The system that moved through the SF Bay area last night fizzled as most have this year. I only got a trace of rain. The good new is, it moved out the fog which I have had for two weeks and the temp. rose to 64F, the first time above 60F this year. It felt down right balmey. More rain forcast for tomorrow.

Dick

Considering how weak this storm was for Nor Cal, I surprised to recieve 0.17 this morning. I think next week we will all get much more than today :mrlooney:

NWS_LA 1-13-10

ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. A VERY POWERFUL WEST TO EAST JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW STORM SYSTEMS TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ALL THE WHILE MAINTAINING A RICH SOURCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE THREE OR FOUR IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SURF. AT THIS EARLY STAGE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6 INCHES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. IF THIS PATTERN DOES DEVELOP AS FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS...ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE ANY ADDITIONAL STEPS NECESSARY TO PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPCOMING RAINS. WHILE NOT A CERTAINTY...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

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PalmGuyWC

Happ,

What about N. Calif? We need some rain too. Most of the fronts this year have been disorganized with spotty showers and no significant rain. Most have slid just to the north of us or if they have moved over the SF Bay Area, just drizzle or very light rain. At least for the last two weeks, thanks to cloud cover and fog, no freezing temps. We did get a band of moderate rain last night for about 30 minutes. Scattered clouds and mid 60's here today. The little sun peeking through feels good.

Dick

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epicure3
The system that moved through the SF Bay area last night fizzled as most have this year. I only got a trace of rain. The good new is, it moved out the fog which I have had for two weeks and the temp. rose to 64F, the first time above 60F this year. It felt down right balmey. More rain forcast for tomorrow.

Dick

Considering how weak this storm was for Nor Cal, I surprised to recieve 0.17 this morning. I think next week we will all get much more than today :mrlooney:

NWS_LA 1-13-10

ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. A VERY POWERFUL WEST TO EAST JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW STORM SYSTEMS TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ALL THE WHILE MAINTAINING A RICH SOURCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE THREE OR FOUR IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SURF. AT THIS EARLY STAGE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6 INCHES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. IF THIS PATTERN DOES DEVELOP AS FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS...ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE ANY ADDITIONAL STEPS NECESSARY TO PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPCOMING RAINS. WHILE NOT A CERTAINTY...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

Monday is looking like a really heavy rain storm if you believe the GFS.

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LJG

Good. It won't start until after the Playoff game. Last Chargers/Jets playoff game it was rainy and cold. And we lost.

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Palmy

Lol... Look at San Diego's Forecast from NOAA...

This..

Sunday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

M.L.King Day: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.

Monday Night: Rain likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Tuesday: Showers likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

At least its not cold... Still gonna be an arctic blast after this whole mess?

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Palmy

Also... NOAA has rain painted from Seattle to San Diego for the extended period... I wonder who will get the brunt of it? The whole west coast cant possibly get a ton of heavy rain, can it? If So Cal gets the rain it needs, it looks like it wont be a severer drought in Pacific NorthWest. Its been raining up here... Well at least in northern Oregon...

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Tyrone

Well as I live on the west coast of a large continent, if I got a winter long term forecast of a fair amount of rain, I'd be glad, as the likelihood of freezing weather is diminished. However I'd be thinking of whether my pots were draining well, and any tender tropicals I'd pull back under cover to prevent overwatering. The downside is with so much cloud cover, the days may not warm up as much as previously. But overall I'd be thinking that it would be an easy winter. :) Someone in the US has to have an easy winter. I hope it's California's turn this year.

Best regards

Tyrone

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BS Man about Palms

I second Tyrones vote. :)

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happ

One thing is quite evident: it will most definitely rain a lot next week B) Also appears the triggering Aleutian low will pump subtropical moisture into California. So we will have the polar & subtropical jets overhead w/ low heights\thicknesses. Snow levels may be high but clear nights could be iffy.

Here's a segment of discussion by a Fresno meteorologist:

Sat Imagery

Infrared image and loop at 16KM shows 3 separate storm systems within the EPAC; 1) south of the Aleutians, 2) approaching the Olympic region, and 3) north of Hawaii. A full fledged “Pineapple Connection” originating from the ITCZ near the Dateline, crosses Hawaii and entrains NE into the Olympic storm is observed. The Olympic system has a large baroclinic leaf structure while the storm near Hawaii is developing one. The Aleutian system is maturing out. It is interesting to note that the ITCZ at 5N is FINALLY coming to life from the erupting subtropical flare near the Dateline eastward to 140W this includes the ENSO 3.4 region where the +1.5° anomaly on the ONI has established the ‘moderate’ El Nino conditions.

(Side Topic for the media) Ok, media you have permission to mention the words El Nino…for a while anyways. If this upcoming pattern and stormy weather isn’t enhanced or influenced by the El Nino, then I don’t know what is. In my humble opinion, this pattern is classic/textbook El Nino. In the past I have been critical of those (in the media) who have blabbed inappropriately and blamed El Nino for everything in the weather department, which is ridiculous. With a through examination of charts and the related CPC analysis of the current ENSO event, I will not flame those of you who choose to discuss the topic of El Nino liberally during the next 16 day period as long as we properly inform the Joe Q Public that these incoming storms are NOT EL NINO, they are being “Enhanced or Influenced” by the El Nino conditions, please make the distinction. El Nino is not the boogieman so don’t talk about it like it’s a monster. Since 1984, the term El Nino has been abused, let’s please put it into proper perspective. Thank you.

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epicure3
One thing is quite evident: it will most definitely rain a lot next week B) Also appears the triggering Aleutian low will pump subtropical moisture into California. So we will have the polar & subtropical jets overhead w/ low heights\thicknesses. Snow levels may be high but clear nights could be iffy.

If the forescast is correct, there will be no clear nights. :blink:

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tropicalb
I am building an Arc.

an ark would probably be a better idea.....

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happ
One thing is quite evident: it will most definitely rain a lot next week B) Also appears the triggering Aleutian low will pump subtropical moisture into California. So we will have the polar & subtropical jets overhead w/ low heights\thicknesses. Snow levels may be high but clear nights could be iffy.

If the forescast is correct, there will be no clear nights. :blink:

The freeze aspect for next week looks unlikely considering the onshore flow\ subtropical jet position. Perhaps a false alarm! :blush:

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Paul The Palm Doctor!

That's a comfort anyway!

Thank's Happ!

Paul

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nachocarl

:wub:

One thing is quite evident: it will most definitely rain a lot next week B) Also appears the triggering Aleutian low will pump subtropical moisture into California. So we will have the polar & subtropical jets overhead w/ low heights\thicknesses. Snow levels may be high but clear nights could be iffy.

If the forescast is correct, there will be no clear nights. :blink:

The freeze aspect for next week looks unlikely considering the onshore flow\ subtropical jet position. Perhaps a false alarm! :blush:

I love you man! :wub:

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nachocarl
I am building an Arc.

ZAP!

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happ

The normally conservative NWS is still forecasting huge amounts of rainfall next week. Maybe the ark idea is a good one!

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...IT STILL LOOKS VERY... VERY WET THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG JET (NEAR 200 KNOTS) OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DRIVE SEVERAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT NO MATTER WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THERE SHOULD BE ONE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY THEN THE STRONGEST STORM ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. CURRENT RAINFALL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES ARE QUITE LIKELY IN FAVORED COASTAL SLOPE LOCATIONS. :mrlooney:

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LJG
I am building an Arc.

an ark would probably be a better idea.....

I like to spell things different Bert.

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MattyB

No wind Happ. Can you put in a request?

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Wai`anae Steve
No wind Happ. Can you put in a request?

No wind chill here and at 7 a.m. it was 59.5. Gotta be a record for my place.

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