Bad News for California

[happ]

Lately the weather pattern has shifted all moisture north w/ only light amounts of rain in NorCal & no rain in SoCal. Unfortunately it appears that this may last a while. In-fact there are similarities to the winter of 1976-77 where El Nino missed California altogether. This past January of 2009 was bone dry & quite warm & we may have a repeat unless the atmosphere behaves!

Here's a detail discussion from the NWS_San Francisco:

SHOULD SAY THAT CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERAL KEY

FEATURES. NOTICED THAT THE AO INDEX WAS OFF THE CHARTS TODAY IN

THE NEGATIVE. CPC HAD TO EXTEND THE ORDINATE TO -6 TO PLOT THE

CURRENT AO INDEX. ONE HAS TO GO BACK TO 76-77 TO SEE A NEGATIVE AO

THAT WAS EVEN CLOSE TO THIS. LOOKING BACK AT DEC JAN OF 76-77...

VERY DRY YEAR FOLLOWING THE DISASTER OF 75-76...ONE SEES MANY

SIMILARITIES TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN. KEY FEATURE IS

DEVELOPING MASSIVE HIGH THAT WILL PINCH-OFF OVER GREENLAND. THIS

VERY STRONG ANOMALY TELECONNECTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST

COAST AND MASSIVE COLD OUTBREAK INTO THE EAST. NOT WHAT ONE EXPECTS

FOR EL NINO WINTER. 76-77 HOWEVER WAS ALSO AN EL NINO WINTER THAT

FOLLOWED SEVERAL YEARS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA`S. ANOTHER FLY

IN THE OINTMENT HAS BEEN A VERY RAPIDLY MOVING ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN

WAVE THAT HAS MOVED RAPIDLY FROM THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE INTO THE

INDIAN OCEAN WHERE CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED. THIS WAVE IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND WEAKEN BUT THIS MAY

ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN AN AREA THAT SHOULD BE VERY DEPRESSED GIVEN

EL NINO PATTERN. IF THIS OCCURS THIS MAY EXACERBATE THE RIDGE OVER

CA EMULATING LA NINA LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO THE PACNW

AND DRY FOR CA AND THE SOUTHWEST. IT DID APPEAR THAT BEFORE XMAS EL

NINO WOULD STRENGTHEN AND WE MAY HAVE SEEN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS BY

NOW AND INTO JANUARY. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR NOW GIVEN THESE

COMPLICATING MID-LATITUDE FORCING FEATURES.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS AT 500 MB OVER THE

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE SEES ALMOST NO SPREAD FROM RUSSIA THROUGH

CHINA INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC ALMOST TO THE DATELINE...THEN IT IS

LIKE WATER COMING OUT OF A HOSE...THE LINES GO EVERYWHERE FROM THE

DATELINE TO THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE EXPLANATION ABOVE WE MAY SEE

A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY FOR RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT

MODEL RUNS AT LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. SO MAY BE ABLE TO BE MORE

DEFINITIVE WITH DRYING FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE AT

LEAST A FEW RUN TO RUN MODELS SHOWING THIS. THIS IS A VERY

FRUSTRATING PATTERN TO FORECAST AS THERE IS A VERY STRONG

SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM CHINA ALL THE WAY TO EUROPE THAT

COULD POSE A MAJOR CHANGE TO WET FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF

CA BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING IS SUPPRESSING THIS AND LOOKS LIKE THIS

WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY 2010.

[LJG]

Happ... does this mean that Ann-Margret's not coming?

[paulgila]

[epicure3]

Interesting. I don't think our Florida friends want to hear the year 1977 brought up in any conversation about weather.

[paulgila]

i remember her from such films as : "viva las vegas" & "grumpy old men II."

[enigma99]

i remember her from such films as : "viva las vegas" & "grumpy old men II."

So does this mean we get 70s and 80s again in Jan like we did last year? (NorCal) I hope so!

[epicure3]

i remember her from such films as : "viva las vegas" & "grumpy old men II."

So does this mean we get 70s and 80s again in Jan like we did last year? (NorCal) I hope so!

For me, that's always a double edged sword. Going from 60s with humidity to 90F w/o humidity in a couple of days, wreaks havoc on all of my tropical plants. Some just outright die while some lose all their leaves. Way too much stress on them when they are already stressed out in winter.

[yachtingone]

Ann wallering in alot of beans in the movie Tommy! I would have eatn those beans! Paul probably did.

[gsn]

Interesting. I don't think our Florida friends want to hear the year 1977 brought up in any conversation about weather.

You got that right,snow in Miami!!!

the sky is falling the sky is falling.....

I figure if they are as CORRECT on this long term forecast, as they were the last two years of hurricane predictions we are safe!!!

What ever the case , it will be what it will be, no matter what the MODELS say, or whether Ann Margret is coming, or not!!!!(FMJ)

Edited December 30, 2009 by gsn

[amazondk]

Happ,

It is intersting I think and related to your post that since the second week of December the rainy season here in western Amazonia kicked in with force. Up until then the El Niño was keeping things very dry. It is now like La Niña is back.

dk

[happ]

Happ... does this mean that Ann-Margret's not coming?

Was she in a movie called "Bad News for California"?

I am not, by any means, proficient in climatology & rely on others who study things like the AO [Arctic Oscillation] but it appears that our El Nino could be morphing into something else: "La Nina" for California. We desperately need rain & another dry year will be harder on all of us if even more water restrictions are implemented. To have a full-blown El Nino going on out in the tropical Pacific & then miss California would be such a let down. Texas has nicely recovered from drought thanks to this current El Nino & places in the Southeast have had record rainfall for November & December. Even Florida is well above normal in rainfall during a normally dry month. Arizona & California need rain badly.

[osideterry]

Accuweather's Ken Clark tries to clear things up a bit on a recent blog. Still one is left with the impressions it could go either way.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.a...t_el_nino_1.asp

[happ]

Thanks for linking Ken Clark's assessment, Terry I respect his opinion. But the thought of another dry year makes me nervous. I was fined several times this past year for over-use of water & can only imagine what this summer will be like if we are still in a drought.

[iwan]

In-fact there are similarities to the winter of 1976-77 where El Nino missed California altogether.

I sure hope not Happ. Here are the number of record low temps for Madera, CA. 1975 (including the winter of 75/76), is equal to only 1949 with a total of eighteen record freeze days (including our record low of 17F).

M D TMP

1 28 22 1975 (18 record freeze days)

1 29 22 1975

1 30 20 1975

1 31 23 1975

2 16 25 1975

2 17 26 1975

2 22 27 1975

2 23 29 1975

3 27 31 1975

3 29 30 1975

11 11 29 1975

11 12 29 1975

11 19 25 1975

11 30 23 1975

12 1 23 1975

12 15 20 1975

12 16 23 1975

12 21 22 1975

1 1 23 1976 (7 record freeze days)

1 2 21 1976

1 4 17 1976

3 18 32 1976

3 25 33 1976

3 28 31 1976

12 27 23 1976

[enigma99]

In my city, Rocklin, it looks like we're done with lows below 40F for quite some time (at least for the next 2-3 weeks) YAY!

Although the cloudy weather is depressing

[enigma99]

Lately the weather pattern has shifted all moisture north w/ only light amounts of rain in NorCal & no rain in SoCal. Unfortunately it appears that this may last a while. In-fact there are similarities to the winter of 1976-77 where El Nino missed California altogether.

You know, Winter of 1976 + 11 (full cycle) + 11 + 11 is Winter 2009. This put its it on the same position of cycle for the Sun (period of inactivity). This is why it was so cold in Florida and other places. Perhaps on a normal Solar year, there would be enough solar activity to bring about a normal El Nino. It appears the colder temps has an effect on it. The Sun is very weak right now.

[siafu]

Lately the weather pattern has shifted all moisture north w/ only light amounts of rain in NorCal & no rain in SoCal. Unfortunately it appears that this may last a while. In-fact there are similarities to the winter of 1976-77 where El Nino missed California altogether.

You know, Winter of 1976 + 11 (full cycle) + 11 + 11 is Winter 2009. This put its it on the same position of cycle for the Sun (period of inactivity). This is why it was so cold in Florida and other places. Perhaps on a normal Solar year, there would be enough solar activity to bring about a normal El Nino. It appears the colder temps has an effect on it. The Sun is very weak right now.

"The is very weak right now", sounds very dramatic when the drop is just 0.1%...

--taken from wikipedia...

"Total solar output is now measured to vary (over the last three 11-year sunspot cycles) by approximately 0.1% [2][3][4] or about 1.3 W/m² peak-to-trough during the 11 year sunspot cycle."

[enigma99]

Yes 0.1% is not much but it is enough to affect slight variations in temps. Google history on mini ice ages and sunspots as well as warm periods. This is scientific fact