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peachy

Summer time south of the equator

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amazondk

I crossed the equator yesterday getting home in Manaus in the early afternoon. It was cloudy and raining and has been raining a lot since I went up north. The rainy season has set in now. Which is very good news. After a few days in the northern winter it is good to get back to the tropics.

dk

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peachy

raining to west of Oz and now raining the the east......but nothing in the middle

Peachy

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Tyrone

No rain here Peachy. Well not yet. It's meant to be 34C and thunderstorms tomorrow, but like you, I'll believe it when I see it. It's really windy and dry today, and going for 34C. There's not enough moisture in the atmosphere to get any convection today, but by tomorrow if that heat trough forms between here and that cyclone, the trough will tend to suck tropical moist air down from the Indian Ocean and we'll at least get some cloud activity and maybe a light show. A quick 20mm of thundery rain would be fantastic though.

That cyclone looks like it will hit Broome but only as a tropical low, then go out to sea and reintensify. It could get interesting.

Best regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

Monsoon trough has disintegrated :angry: .... so back to hopefully afternoon storm until the next low or trough...

Regards, Ari :)

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Tyrone

TC Laurence has taken a sharp turn back to the ocean. Should pass near Derby.

UV forecast to be 13 tomorrow. We had a 12.6 today. Should get thunderstorms and 34C tomorrow.

Forecast for Friday evening

Becoming cloudy later in the evening. S/SW winds, moderate to fresh near the

coast, shifting E/NE'ly later this evening.

Precis: Cloud developing.

Forecast for Saturday

A shower or two with the risk of a thunderstorm, clearing by mid afternoon.

Moderate E/NE winds shifting moderate NW/SW'ly in the afternoon.

Precis: Thundery shower, clearing later.

City: Min 20 Max 34

Mandurah: Min 20 Max 30

UV Alert: 8:00 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: HIGH

Hills: HIGH

Sunday Sunny. Min 19 Max 34

Monday Sunny. Min 19 Max 33

Tuesday Mostly sunny. Min 18 Max 31

Wednesday Partly cloudy. Min 17 Max 30

Thursday Mostly sunny. Min 16 Max 31

Friday Partly cloudy. Min 17 Max 34

Best regards

Tyrone

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Tyrone

I don't know what happened to that rain. I got up this morning to blue skies and 25C. :unsure:

Ex TC Laurence is now out in the ocean again near Beagle Bay NW of Derby and has just flared up with a heap of cloud. It may be up to cyclone strength already. The radar image seems to show it with heaps of spin. Broome will get a ton of rain today being just east of it as it passes by. I wouldn't want to be in the NW between Exmouth and Port Hedland at the moment. This is one of the earliest starts to the cyclone season that I can recall. Generally December is virtually cyclone free. The odd one may start but it rarely gets past Cat 2 and stays well north. This one has been up to cat 5 already.

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ariscott

I don't think Laurence will intensify to cat 5... but we shall see as this one tends to do whatever it wants to do... Got a bit yesterday, another 10.5mm... sunny & humid today though, so we shall see whether we will get any this afternoon... Time to mow, definitely...

Regards, Ari )

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Tyrone

It's just been 37C and I just checked the UV for today and we peaked at a whopping 14.4. It felt like it out there. Humidity isn't high around 24%. Thunderstorms formed inland from Perth so no thunderstorms for me. :( Mid morning it looked so promising with jet black cumulonimbus forming to the east, but the radar shows it heading east.

TC Laurence is back to cat 1 status, and forecast to hit cat 3 in a couple of days. The way it flared up so quickly with a huge mass of cloud once it hit the ocean again makes me think it will go past cat 3. Have to wait and see though.

Tyrone

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Tyrone

TC Laurence is cat 2 now only 5 hrs on.

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ariscott

It doesn't look that impressive on the radar though, Tyrone... I wonder whether the radar is a bit attenuated?? I remember when Helen (which was only cat 2) hit us 2 years ago, it was more impressive than that...

No rain here yesterday... Overcast in the afternoon, so I could mow a bit of my 5 acres... Back to mowing again today, before the weeds take over and get into the garden beds. At the time like this, I wish I only had a suburban block.

Regards, Ari :)

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peachy

Cyclone Tracy hit Darwin on Xmas Day remember Tyrone, so december cyclones are not unknown. Need I say none of the forecast rain has landed here. Yesterday I could feel it in the air, so close but no show. An hour ago the clouds were so low and black that had I lived in the south I would have sworn it was on the verge of snowing. Put the cars under cover in case of hail, brought the washing in and now one hour later, blue skies are shining down on me. The wind is very strong and with big gusts that made it almost impossible to drive and of course rendered the sprinkler useless too.

Peachy

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ariscott

Heavy rain here today.... more than 50mm on my rain gauge!! Just when I thought that I had to water tomorrow if it doesn't rain tonight... :) .

I managed to mow in the morning, so the weekend was very productive.... Oh yes, and I repot those dypsis from Darwin Plant Wholesalers into 250mm pots...

Regards, Ari :)

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peachy

A few suburbs have seen flooding, most getting around 60mm of rain this afternoon. As for me ? Zilch, nothing, nada. Not one drop has fallen here. I can even smell the rain so it must be falling somewhere nearby but definately not here. I feel like I am under a curse or something. My poor plants are so thirsty and I just cant keep up with the hand and sprinkler watering. Maybe I am meant to grow cacti and succulents.

Peachy

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Tyrone

I relate to your experience Peachy. The black clouds I saw to the east of me yesterday dropped torrential rain about 20km away from me, but I could smell the rain. It got really blustery too. No official BOM station recorded even one drop.

In regards to cyclone activity, cyclones before Xmas are not unknown (ie Tracey and Jone) but over the last decade in the NW have almost never happened before Xmas. I was going to go on holiday up to Exmouth this weekend at Cape Range NP but due to the possibility of an early cyclone season have canned it and am heading south instead. Exmouth was totally destroyed by a 290kph cat 5 in 99. To be caught in a NP with heaps of dry creek beds and not one bridge for 350km when rain comes through is not a good idea. I don't know how true it is but it's a common thought in the NW that an early cyclone is often a bad one.

Best regards

Tyrone

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Tyrone

Laurence is cat 4 now and slightly heading toward land. I think it will cross in the next 24hrs. It may just become a cat 5 briefly before landfall. The rain from this system is likely to head inland across central Australia and may even give some decent thunderstorms to Melbourne. I hope it fills your tanks Michael and gives your garden a good soaking too.

Best regards

Tyrone

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Miccles

Hi Tyrone,

Yep, they are predicting the remains of Laurence to head our way and give us some decent rainfall on Wed/Thurs....10-20mm....... would be nice. being the sceptic I am, I will say 8 drops to fall and a dark cloud or two.... hope I am wrong !

:huh:

Regards

Michael.

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Tyrone

How many square metres is your roof catchment Michael? I'll work out how many litres you'll catch in your tanks.

Best regards

Tyrone

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Tyrone

Laurence is coming into land, in a remote not too populated area. Here comes your rain Michael. It's aimed right at Melbourne. :)

Best regards

Tyrone

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Tyrone

It's cat 5 now. Winds to 285kph near the centre. It looks like it will cross somewhere near Wallal Downs homestead and Mandora. A cyclone watch has been issued right inland to the WA border around Warburton and Giles. I think the rain will make it to the south east of Oz. Let's hope it does. :)

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Miccles

I think you may be right Tyrone..... forecast for my area on Thursday is showing thunderstorms, a 70% chance of rain...and 20-40mm if it does !!

Now that would be a fitting Christmas present :winkie:

As for roof catchment area....I recall hearing once that on the "average" sized roof, every 1mm of rainfall equates to 200L of water available to be caught. Does that sound about right ? By the way - I don't know what an "average" sized roof is.

Thanks

Michael.

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Tyrone

At those calculations an average size roof would be 200 m2. A mm of water will produce 1L of water per m2. So going on that calculation and assuming you have a 200m2 roof you stand to pick up anywhere from 4000-8000L soon. Why not quickly hook up your neighbours gutters as well and see if you can up it to 24000L. :)

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Miccles
At those calculations an average size roof would be 200 m2. A mm of water will produce 1L of water per m2. So going on that calculation and assuming you have a 200m2 roof you stand to pick up anywhere from 4000-8000L soon. Why not quickly hook up your neighbours gutters as well and see if you can up it to 24000L. :)

Would love to hook up the neighbors places as well. Should I ask them... or don a balaclava and rig it up under the cover of darkness ?? haha.

If we got 40mm, and I had 600m2 of catchment area... my water storages would be 100%. I am going to put some thought into this.

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Tyrone

Just do it Michael. :)

The eye of Laurence is almost over Mandora at the moment, maybe a few km's west. But basically it's crossing the coast right now. I don't know if there's much at Mandora, but if there's anything loose and lying around it will be thrown into the desert at 300kph. Hopefully everyone in it's path will have prepared and be OK. They're still predicting it will be a cyclone almost all the way to the WA border.

I really do hope you get your tanks filled again Michael.

Best regards

Tyrone

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Tyrone

Just been reading a weather forum and residents at sandfire flats roadhouse are riding out the storm in a demountable building with chains. There are fears it will be ripped apart. The general concensus is that the 80 Mile Beach Caravan Park will be totally smashed and washed out to sea with the storm surge. If there's anyone there in chained down demountables there in serious trouble. Cyclone Vance reportedly blew chained down demountables for two kms. Central pressure just dropped below 900hPa. Mandora is in the eye wall right now. It's a cattle station and the storm surge may create many cattle losses. Mandora has a weather station but who knows how long it will stand up before being blown to bits.

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philinsydney

It's funny how cyclones can go from East to West or West to East in tropical Australia and the SW Pacific.

In the North Atlantic they always seem to go from East to West. :unsure:

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ariscott

Apparently there is a cyclone shelter there... although it will be pretty noisy with over 200km/h wind. I think it is a cattle station.... I hope there won't be too many flying cows around...

Regards, Ari :)

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Miccles

Hope everyone is safe in Nth West WA....across the otherside of our big brown land....

Regards

Michael

P.S: Spoken to one of the neighbors....happy for me to do the work on their downpipe...so diverter to my tanks going in tomorrow !

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Tyrone

Well done Michael. You've got great neighbours.

The cyclone is inland of Mandora now and is still a cat 5. The general thought is because the land is basically dead flat in the forecast track area, the cyclone will take an unusually long time to fall apart and turn into a tropical low. The Mandora weather station peaked at 211 kph, but there is some thought that it was damaged, as the graph showing pressure drop and wind speed don't correlate accurately. On another forum I read that the people at Mandora were taking shelter in a truck in a shed! Also it is thought that stronger gusts would have been felt at Wallal station which was on the other side of the eye but there is no weather station there. Luckily, very few people live in this area, and when this happens it's obvious why. On the ABC news tonight the lady from Sandfire Flats Roadhouse said that there were lots of people on the highway this afternoon. If that's the case they were trying to cheat death. I also heard that paramedics are getting ready to get in by helicopter after the storm passes. That would be an unsettling job to do. Who knows what they'll find, or not find. The storm surge would have been the most dangerous aspect, along with flash floods which could be potentially everywhere now. It's very flat up there with nowhere to get shelter. Flashflooding especially near the coast would be particularly deadly.

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ariscott

That area has the highest building code, so hopefully some building still stand. That is the problem with smallish cyclone, they retain their strength so far inland.

Michael,

So how many litres do you have now in total?? We have been planning to put another tank (10,000 or 25,000L) on the shed, but there is always more important things to spend our money on.... One day....

Regards, Ari :)

Edited by ariscott

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Daryl

Great palm growing weather here lately...not too cool, not too hot and plenty of humidity. We finally got some rain on Sunday...27mm to give the garden a drink.

Hopefully we'll get some more over the next few days.

Looks like it will be nice weather for Christmas, not too hot, only 30C.

Daryl

A shower or two and the chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon or evening.

Light winds before a moderate afternoon NE sea breeze.

Precis: Shower, possible storm

City: Max 30

Bayside: Max 28

UV Alert: 7:20 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 16 [Extreme]

Wednesday Shower or two. Min 21 Max 30

Thursday Mostly fine. Min 22 Max 30

Friday Mostly fine. Min 23 Max 30

Saturday Showers, possible storm. Min 23 Max 29

Sunday Showers, possible storm. Min 23 Max 28

Monday Mostly fine. Min 23 Max 29

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Tyrone

Great weather there Daryl. A UV Index of 16 as well. It's already peaked at 10 at 10am. That sun will feel extra hot for you guys today. Luckily you've got heaps of humidity. Great for palms, and guys in stubbies, thongs and a beer, under the verandah.

Ari, Sandfire flats roadhouse was reportedly burnt down two years ago, and all the buildings were temporary structures at least as far back as October this year. Lots of debris and rubbish lying around too. I wonder how they all went. Laurence is now cat 3 drenching the desert. It's coming your way Michael. Get your neighbours gutters into your tank. :)

Best regards

Tyrone

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Tyrone

Just searched the news. Everyone at Wallal station and Eighty Mile Beach Caravan park are alive and well. Extensive damage to Wallal station to out buildings that weren't up to code, and the caravan park has taken a very bad hit. Contact with Mandora which definitely was in the eyewall has not been established yet. FESA are getting a chopper in now, to see how they are. Luckily the homestead is 6km inland so it shouldn't have been effected by a tidal surge.

Not bad weather here in Perth.

Forecast for Tuesday

A sunny day. Light E/SE winds, shifting fresh S/SW'ly by the afternoon.

Precis: Sunny.

City: Max 30

Mandurah: Max 28

UV Alert: 8:10 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: VERY HIGH

Hills: VERY HIGH

Wednesday Partly cloudy. Min 15 Max 25

Thursday Sunny. Min 14 Max 29

Friday Sunny. Hot. Min 17 Max 36

Saturday Partly cloudy. Min 18 Max 34

Sunday Partly cloudy. Min 19 Max 33

Monday Very hot. Sunny. Min 19 Max 38

Not as good as Daryl's with all of QLD's consistent high mins and humidity, but I'll take what I can get.

Best regards

Tyrone

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Miccles

Good to hear that the people in the path of TC Laurence are ok......

The rain from this system may indeed reach over to Victoria, but doesn't look like they are anticipating it making it down to Melbourne. Rather, it is northern Victoria/southern NSW which will get the rain from this one.....

Things may change...we'll see.

Regards

Michael.

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Tyrone

Yes, I saw the change in forecast. Still, it's a cyclone and not entirely predictable, so let's hope it takes a more southerly track. I'm amazed it's still cat 3 this arvo.

regards

Tyrone

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ariscott

Small cyclone, Tyrone... they retain their shape and strength better... unfortunately...

Regards, Ari :)

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peachy

Another afternoon of storms, flash flooding and tons of rain. Everywhere but here. Came within 2klms of my place then stopped. I just can't believe such bad luck and such freak events as being missed 2 days in a row. Its so depressing, I didnt go outside and put the sprinkler on. Stayed in bed all day and felt sorry for myself instead, not very productive but very emotionally satisfying.

Peachy

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ariscott

Peachy... it happens.... Like us in October when everyone was getting rain but us... but it will come..

We are close to 500mm in December... and another 20mm this afternoon. This is heaven (just about)... except my grass (not lawn...) is growing faster than my plants... Arrgghh!!

Regards, Ari :)

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Miccles
Michael,

So how many litres do you have now in total?? We have been planning to put another tank (10,000 or 25,000L) on the shed, but there is always more important things to spend our money on.... One day....

Regards, Ari :)

Hi Ari - I have just on 24,000 Lts in total capacity. This is made up of 5 tanks..ranging from 2,000 lts to 6,000lts.... sort of added as I went...... just like the garden did.

It's 38C today... and very bright. Am trying to add a diverter to the neighbors water downpipe on their house to feed into my tanks..but too damned hot and bright outside..... looks like a project for after dinner. Very nice on my neighbors part..... they have no garden and aren't at all interested in collecting water......adds significantly to my catchment area though....

Regards

Michael.

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Tyrone
Michael,

So how many litres do you have now in total?? We have been planning to put another tank (10,000 or 25,000L) on the shed, but there is always more important things to spend our money on.... One day....

Regards, Ari :)

Hi Ari - I have just on 24,000 Lts in total capacity. This is made up of 5 tanks..ranging from 2,000 lts to 6,000lts.... sort of added as I went...... just like the garden did.

It's 38C today... and very bright. Am trying to add a diverter to the neighbors water downpipe on their house to feed into my tanks..but too damned hot and bright outside..... looks like a project for after dinner. Very nice on my neighbors part..... they have no garden and aren't at all interested in collecting water......adds significantly to my catchment area though....

Regards

Michael.

LOL. I only suggested it as a crazy joke. But it does make sense especially if you get on well with your neighbours. :)

You're having a hot one there Michael. It's a pleasant breezy 24C here. Then the heat gets stuck in from Fri on. We're about to start what the local aborigines used to call the 2nd summer which starts in Jan and ends in mid Mar.

Best regards

Tyrone

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Miccles

"That's when good neighbours become good friends"

:lol:

post-953-1261631442_thumb.jpg

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