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_Keith

Coldest Winter in last 10 to 15 years coming

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falcon1988

Good evening all i see we are still in this type of discussion on what winter will bring keep in mind all winter behave differently not all winters are the same like hurricane season what they say or what we are told mother nature is in control but i saw this article on NOAA i thought you would like to read it has a warm ending in sight.

here's the link.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/2...04_cooling.html

regards

have a good safe week everyone

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_Keith

Will It Be A Bad One? 2009-2010 Winter Forecast

http://www.wcpo.com/mostpopular/story/Will...Z7Xa55sYUg.cspx

"A big factor in this year's winter forecast will be sunspots or in this case, the lack of them. Sunspots have been negating the effects of global warming over the past several years according to Judith Lean (NRL) and David Lund (NASA/GISS).

Judith Lean says, "A 0.1% decrease in the sun's irradiance has counteracted some of the warming action of greenhouse gases from 2002 - 2008." She states, "this is the reason for the well-known 'flat' temperature trend of recent years."

The updated forecast for the sun's next solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, has its peak delayed until May 2013 with a below normal number of sunspots expected.

We are currently in "the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century." Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center says, "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."

The sun is expected to remain calm for nearly a year. This reduction of solar activity is expected to have a cooling effect on the earth."

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_Keith

Sun spot cycle impacting global warming and cooling

http://www.examiner.com/x-4648-Atlanta-Wea...ing-and-cooling

"Theodore Landscheidt in New Ice Age Instead of Global Warming warned the decline could continue in solar activity until a Maunder Minimum like level was reached about 2030.

The Russians appear to agree. Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Russian Academy of Science said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century - when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland - could start in 2012-2015 and reach its peak in 2055-2060."

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amazondk

Keith,

That is interesting information.

dk

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Paul The Palm Doctor!
Bubba,

It was a bit cool when I got into Miami last night. And, it is even cooler here in Houston where I arrived a few hours ago.

dk

Don:

We're not cooling down nearly as much as the remainder of reported Continental North American temperatures, in fact we reached 90 F. yesterday, and are 6.6 F. above normal STILL for the month. We (in far SE So. Fla.) are going to cool down to 78 F. which is exactly normal but the front will reverse in a day as a warm front and we'll be back in the mid-80's after today (Friday.) Go figure! The jet stream just isn't funneling Arctic air this far south...so far, BUT traditionally it CAN be coldest in Miami-Ft. Lauderdale from Christmas till January 20th or so. (My breadfruit trees are liking it though, so far!)

Pablo

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amazondk

Paul,

I know S. FLA is still warmer and I will be back there on Monday. But, I went out the grocery store at about 430 pm today here in Great Falls, Montana. And, the last thing I felt was warm. Even though the temperature had risen to the mid teens the wind still had a cutting bite to it. Back home on the equator it looks like the rainy season finally kicked in and my wife was commenting on the cold weather yesterday, it hit a high of only the high eighties F. Which is a nice relief from where it has been lately. It looks like winter on the equator is arriving. And, here on the northern plains winter is definitely here. You hear that crunch under your feet while walking on cold frozen snow.

dk

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_Keith

2009 total: 254 days (76%)

Since 2004: 765 days

Typical Solar Min: 485 days

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Paul The Palm Doctor!

A POST SCRIPT: Don: It feels really lousy fere today. Overnight low was 52 F. and it's ***'n raw out. Barely 65 F. an\d very damp & dank & no sun at all for two days!

Keith was 100% right!

Paul

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amazondk

Keith,

Very interesting.

dk

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DCA_Palm_Fan
Here is some good reading on the coming ice age.

Global Warming A Chilling Perspective

That is a good little read. I tend to think we have less of an impact than we like to think we do. That said, both sides present compelling arguments for their case, and both sides can, and often do profit from their viewpoints so I tend to think that both sides are very skewed and honestly, I'm not sure we can really believe either one.

EDIT: Mercifully, it has been a relatively mild winter. Our coldest temps we have seen, at least here in my area along the immediate tidal Potomac river, just a few miles south of the Washington Monument, down town have been in the mid 20s, and even that has only occurred a couple times. That said, we DO still have Jan/ Feb to get through. Last year was not too bad, except for a couple weeks in Feb IIRC, where we had actual lows around 8-11F where I am located, and in the city proper too.

Edited by DCA_Palm_Fan

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spockvr6
both sides can, and often do profit from their viewpoints so I tend to think that both sides are very skewed and honestly, I'm not sure we can really believe either one.

DCA PALM FAN for Palm Talk president!

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PalmGuyWC
Here is some good reading on the coming ice age.

Global Warming A Chilling Perspective

If you all want a view of the "big picture," read Don's clip on. It's a great read, but a little complicated. I'll have to read it a couple of times. It makes you realize that the human effects on climate change are about the same as an ant crawling on a mountain. Thanks, Don for the attachment.

Dick

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spockvr6
I believe it to be true. Just sayin'

Palmarati's crystal ball looks to be rather accurate.

Got any lottery numbers? Stock picks?

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_Keith
I believe it to be true. Just sayin'

Palmarati's crystal ball looks to be rather accurate.

Got any lottery numbers? Stock picks?

Nope, but being a old radio enthusiast, I do have nearly 5 decades of studying sunspot cycles and knowing what is normal, slightly abnormal, and way abnormal. And Sunspot Cycle 24 has been way abnormal, a no show for all practical purposes. The December Sunspot Number average was 15.7. This is the highest it has been since March 2008. Although this is slight encouragement, in addition to being a few years late, Cycle 24 looks to be low potential cycle with predictions of another following. This means a colder earth.

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Alicehunter2000

5 decades!.......Geez.....Keith ......your old! .....;)

Well it hit a balmy 51 degrees this afternoon....still have some wind....it just doesn't feel like its going to freeze tonight.....nonetheless, I have brought everything in pots inside. Have my sheets prepared for the stuff in the ground and my little space heater ready for my mini-greenhouse.

Reminder for everyone in the freeze zone with water pumps..........be sure to drain your water lines or leave them running slightly tonight...good luck.

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Davidl

51.3 at 6:19pm and falling. I hope there is some cloud cover.

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_Keith
5 decades!.......Geez.....Keith ......your old! ..... ;)

I started really really young, but yes, I am old too.

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amazondk
5 decades!.......Geez.....Keith ......your old! ..... ;)

I started really really young, but yes, I am old too.

Keith,

You are never old. Just more mature. But, then again boys never grow up in reality.

It sure looks like those sun spots are taking a vacation and the old sun is pretty quiet. At least it has has sort of neutered old El Niño around here and brought a lot of moisture to my garden.

dk

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_Keith

I had really hoped my sunspot theory and cold winter was just a bad theory, but it is truly playing out to form.

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DCA_Palm_Fan
both sides can, and often do profit from their viewpoints so I tend to think that both sides are very skewed and honestly, I'm not sure we can really believe either one.

DCA PALM FAN for Palm Talk president!

Hahahahaha! Hey, just calling it like I see it. It really is hard to get a truly accurate perspective on things when both sides can, and do present the date in ways that make both of their cases hard to dispute.

I had really hoped my sunspot theory and cold winter was just a bad theory, but it is truly playing out to form.

It sure is playing out here the past couple days. Coldest air here since Feb of 09, and second coldest in about 12 years. I woke up to 15.5F this morning. We did drop down to 9F about 5 times, and 8F once, all pretty much in a row, last February. That was the coldest it had been in about a dozen years here. The scary thing is, that for my area up here, this is still VERY EARLY in winter to be seeing this kind of cold, even in the coldest winters. YUK!

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Alicehunter2000

Yikes.....15.5!...........sorry to hear that....what you got, um, still growing up there....would like to hear about your protection methods.

And Keith....even though your old...I would still like to buy you a beer sometime....we could compare aches and pains :)

Well, last nights event turned out to be not quite as bad as predicted here on the Emerald Coast. I just touched freezing and my indicator plants banana's, elephant ears, philodendrons, m. deliciouso?, bouganvilla etc. have shown a mixed bag of damage........indicating that temps froze only in portions of the yard. Here's hoping and praying that tonight will not be much worst..........we currently have cloud cover.

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DCA_Palm_Fan
Yikes.....15.5!...........sorry to hear that....what you got, um, still growing up there....would like to hear about your protection methods.

And Keith....even though your old...I would still like to buy you a beer sometime....we could compare aches and pains :)

Well, last nights event turned out to be not quite as bad as predicted here on the Emerald Coast. I just touched freezing and my indicator plants banana's, elephant ears, philodendrons, m. deliciouso?, bouganvilla etc. have shown a mixed bag of damage........indicating that temps froze only in portions of the yard. Here's hoping and praying that tonight will not be much worst..........we currently have cloud cover.

The only things left outdoors are two potted windmill palms. Both, the pots are wrapped in plastic, as is the trunk, and the pots, and trunk are wrapped in incandescent Christmas lights. (NOT LED, those don't generate enough heat to melt ice even.) Those windmills have seen 9F for about 5 straight nights last winter, and one night of 8F, and did NOT have xmas lights last winter, and were fine. So far, the soil in the pots is staying well above 32F, so I dont think they are going to suffer much. Although I did notice that the leaves are kind of folding closed, as they did last year when it got down to 8-9F.

The Bananas, (rojo, and dwarf cavendish), phoenix roebelenii, coccothrinax argentata, chamaedorea tepejilote, chamadorea metallica, Jatropha Podagrica, small Cycas Revoluta, some philodendrons, have all been brought indoors for the winter. My chamaedorea elegans, and the other plants I have usually just stays inside anyway.

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BobbyinNY

Hey Everyone.....

been awhile since I posted (I know I know).... Been cold as hell up here (mid 30's-day/20's night)... I just covered my Windmill last week and it's been doing great so far - laughing at temps in the mid-high 20's. Coldest so far recorded has been 20f last night. It's supposed to be in the low 20's tonight, but I can't believe how far down and wide the jetstream is. I'm talking to people in NC & Georgia who are 5-10f colder than I'm getting down to. I pray for you guys in Florida - it's gonna be a COLD one tonight.

Bobby

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amazondk

Bobby,

I am glad you are doing well. As my dad says "colder than a well diggers xxxx"

dk

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Alicehunter2000

Bobby, I thought you moved to Florida?

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BobbyinNY

Hi Don, Hi David...

No Dave.... I didn't move yet.. I'm trying to get the wheels of motion moving this year (next few months). I have had a few setbacks, but nothing major. I'll keep everyone posted....

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_Keith

Are you believing yet? - keith

South Florida to experience longest cold streak in nine years

A series of cold fronts will bring South Florida its longest cold streak in nine years. And temperatures in some parts of the state could plunge to 20 degrees.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/story/1408207.html

Record snowfall plunges China into a cold freeze

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_record-snowfall-plunges-china-into-a-cold-freeze_1330736

December was 8th-coldest; more cold looms

http://journalstar.com/news/local/article_107908e2-f6fa-11de-bd6c-001cc4c03286.html

</H2>

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happ

Attached segment of NWS_SF discussion last week & how the rare AO [Arctic Oscillation] is funneling cold south. That Greenland high pressure system needs to break down before the pattern can turn to normal.

SHOULD SAY THAT CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERAL KEY

FEATURES. NOTICED THAT THE AO INDEX WAS OFF THE CHARTS TODAY IN

THE NEGATIVE. . . . ONE HAS TO GO BACK TO 76-77 TO SEE A NEGATIVE AO

THAT WAS EVEN CLOSE TO THIS. LOOKING BACK AT DEC JAN OF 76-77...

VERY DRY YEAR FOLLOWING THE DISASTER DROUGHT OF 75-76...ONE SEES MANY

SIMILARITIES TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN. KEY FEATURE IS

DEVELOPING MASSIVE HIGH THAT WILL PINCH-OFF OVER GREENLAND. THIS

VERY STRONG ANOMALY TELECONNECTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST

COAST AND MASSIVE COLD OUTBREAK INTO THE EAST. NOT WHAT ONE EXPECTS

FOR EL NINO WINTER. 76-77 HOWEVER WAS ALSO AN EL NINO WINTER THAT

FOLLOWED SEVERAL YEARS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA`S.

Edited by happ

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Zeeth
Hi Don, Hi David...

No Dave.... I didn't move yet.. I'm trying to get the wheels of motion moving this year (next few months). I have had a few setbacks, but nothing major. I'll keep everyone posted....

Make sure you move far enough south. No point in moving to Fl if it freezes and you can't grow coconuts!

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SunnyFl
Are you believing yet? - keith

South Florida to experience longest cold streak in nine years

A series of cold fronts will bring South Florida its longest cold streak in nine years. And temperatures in some parts of the state could plunge to 20 degrees.

Believe it. This is from the NWS:

"URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

247 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010

FLZ068-071-073-051100-

/O.CON.KMFL.FZ.A.0004.100106T0400Z-100106T1500Z/

METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-

247 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY MORNING..."

Meanwhile, for W. Central FL, we have a Wind Chill Advisory. 10-20F wind chill in the Nature Coast; 20-30F wind chills south of there.

(OT - Keith, you said, "being a old radio enthusiast." What kind - ham? am/fm dx? just curious)

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Zeeth

A freeze watch for Miami?!? That's when you know it's bad!

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amazondk

Accuweather has some interesting information on the developing North American weather, North American Cold Snap. I talked to my father in Montana today and it was not all that cold there. But, the cold is coming.

dk

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BobbyinNY

It's really amazing how far that jet stream has dipped.. I've never seen it go that far south.. We're cold here (33f now, dropping to 24f tonight), but not much colder than you guys in central fl. I'd be freaking out if I had that much stuff outside uncovered. I feel your pain.

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_Keith
It's really amazing how far that jet stream has dipped.. I've never seen it go that far south.. We're cold here (33f now, dropping to 24f tonight), but not much colder than you guys in central fl. I'd be freaking out if I had that much stuff outside uncovered. I feel your pain.

Bobby, its gone from freakin' to acceptin'.

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JayW

And now Central Florida may get some snow?

snow.jpg

:blink:

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_Keith

Hmmm. I just heard one of the national weathermen say this will likely be the coldest winter in 14 years or so.

While it is of some satisfaction to be right, I would have been happier to be wrong.

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Paul The Palm Doctor!
Are you believing yet? - keith

South Florida to experience longest cold streak in nine years

A series of cold fronts will bring South Florida its longest cold streak in nine years. And temperatures in some parts of the state could plunge to 20 degrees.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/story/1408207.html

Record snowfall plunges China into a cold freeze

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_record-snowfall-plunges-china-into-a-cold-freeze_1330736

December was 8th-coldest; more cold looms

http://journalstar.com/news/local/article_107908e2-f6fa-11de-bd6c-001cc4c03286.html

</H2>

I believe and quoted your impending weather accuracy, Keith! You did a bunch of research; it was spot on! Thank you for telling it like it was (and still is!)

Dr. Paul :winkie:

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