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_Keith

Coldest Winter in last 10 to 15 years coming

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Moose

Bah humbug! I just planted a Deckenia nobilis - that is my opinion about how much cold will be happening in my neck of the woods this winter! :unsure:

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bubba

I find this discussion interesting but am not convinced we are headed into the coldest winter in history. Our best true guess at future weather is about a month at a time.

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Zeeth

Crossing my fingers for a 10b winter here in Ellenton!

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falcon1988
Crossing my fingers for a 10b winter here in Ellenton!

you got that right let the warmth Begin

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Caryota_gigas

We just had the coldest October in 64 years!

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_Keith
We just had the coldest October in 64 years!

There are a lot of coldest ever records being broken. Pay attention folks. Its coming.

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Caryota_gigas
We just had the coldest October in 64 years!

There are a lot of coldest ever records being broken. Pay attention folks. Its coming.

Whats coming... global cooling...?

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_Keith
We just had the coldest October in 64 years!

There are a lot of coldest ever records being broken. Pay attention folks. Its coming.

Whats coming... global cooling...?

Well, global cooling is definitely coming, but it could be hundreds or thousands of years away. The heating cooling cycle on a 15000 year scale is pretty predictable, but I am talking about more short term. There is a reason most of the global warming alarmist have not switched the terminology to climate change. "Climate change", like it is going to stay steady. What a joke.

Anyway, here is more interesting reading on the short term cooling effect I am talking about.

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2...0106201017.aspx

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bubba

Keith, Very interesting. You are starting to convince me. Do you have some Butias I could purchase?

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happ
We just had the coldest October in 64 years!

There are a lot of coldest ever records being broken. Pay attention folks. Its coming.

We know winter is coming as it does every year! :lol: so cold temps will occur. El Nino continues to strengthen & rainfall is abundant in the Pacific NW & Southeast [drought is over in Atlanta]. Cool and moist is what we hope for esp in California where drought lingers. ENSO should prevail & minimize significant cold events. My opinion, of-course.

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amazondk

I saw on the news that the Greenland ice cap has been melting a lot and that this may have caused a 1 mm rise in ocean level. But, then when I looked further it was also said that the increased melting had increased snowfall over the interior and increased the snowpack. Well, that does not really mean that the ice cap will melt. I feel that it is just part of a changing climate that always has changed. In fact Greenland was named Greenland by the vikings because it was green.

dk

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Zeeth
I saw on the news that the Greenland ice cap has been melting a lot and that this may have caused a 1 mm rise in ocean level. But, then when I looked further it was also said that the increased melting had increased snowfall over the interior and increased the snowpack. Well, that does not really mean that the ice cap will melt. I feel that it is just part of a changing climate that always has changed. In fact Greenland was named Greenland by the vikings because it was green.

dk

Actually, Greenland was named that by the Vikings to trick people to go there. Kind of like how some cities in Fl are named so people will go there, I.e. Frostproof. It was just a big real estate scam, even way back then.

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_Keith

October Cold Snap Sets 82-Year Record

http://cbs2chicago.com/local/october.cold.....2.1247099.html

Denver breaks 104 year old cold temperature record as Arctic chill sets in

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-219-Den...c-chill-sets-in

Record cold hits region; snow on the way

http://www.wenatcheeworld.com/news/2009/oc...now-on-the-way/

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epicure3

The NWS did say that this was the 3rd coldest year, so far, on record.

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bubba

When Putin talks, people listen.....

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amazondk
I saw on the news that the Greenland ice cap has been melting a lot and that this may have caused a 1 mm rise in ocean level. But, then when I looked further it was also said that the increased melting had increased snowfall over the interior and increased the snowpack. Well, that does not really mean that the ice cap will melt. I feel that it is just part of a changing climate that always has changed. In fact Greenland was named Greenland by the vikings because it was green.

dk

Actually, Greenland was named that by the Vikings to trick people to go there. Kind of like how some cities in Fl are named so people will go there, I.e. Frostproof. It was just a big real estate scam, even way back then.

Keith,

That is not the information that I have seen. The vikings settled the southern coast of Greenland during the Medieval Warm Period which was from 800 AD to 1300 AD. During this time the part of the Greenland they settled supported agriculture and farm animals. The settlements failed more or less at the time the temperatures turned back to cold as the Earth slipped into the mini ice age which ran up to nearly modern times. The exact reason for the colonies failure is still a controversy. But, I do not think they went there because they were sold a bill of goods that was not there. They were from Scandanavia and were quite used to cold climates anyway. The Norse stayed in Greenland for 500 years. So, it must have been a viable place to live at the time. I did a bit of investigation into this period some time ago while looking at climate data and human history. There is a theory that the Vikings may have actually reached British Colombia around Vancouver during this period by sailing the Artic Ocean which was more than likely ice free for a longer part of the year. Since the last glacial maximum the Earth has had several swings of temperatures up and down over periods of time. And, humanity developed and grew most in these periods of more warmth. Cold climate is not too beneficial to our species. Since all evidence is that we are in an Interglacial period. The ice will come again. How soon is a big question. On the NOAA site there is a whole area dedicated to Abrupt Climate Change. It appears that the Earths climate has swung many times from warm to cold over short periods of time. That does not mean we are going into the next ice age now. But, there is no guarantee we are not either.

dk

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SubTropicRay

Florida winter often goes as November goes. This November has been above normal and considerably warmer than last year when I had 10+ nights in the 40's.

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Zeeth
I saw on the news that the Greenland ice cap has been melting a lot and that this may have caused a 1 mm rise in ocean level. But, then when I looked further it was also said that the increased melting had increased snowfall over the interior and increased the snowpack. Well, that does not really mean that the ice cap will melt. I feel that it is just part of a changing climate that always has changed. In fact Greenland was named Greenland by the vikings because it was green.

dk

Actually, Greenland was named that by the Vikings to trick people to go there. Kind of like how some cities in Fl are named so people will go there, I.e. Frostproof. It was just a big real estate scam, even way back then.

Keith,

That is not the information that I have seen. The vikings settled the southern coast of Greenland during the Medieval Warm Period which was from 800 AD to 1300 AD. During this time the part of the Greenland they settled supported agriculture and farm animals. The settlements failed more or less at the time the temperatures turned back to cold as the Earth slipped into the mini ice age which ran up to nearly modern times. The exact reason for the colonies failure is still a controversy. But, I do not think they went there because they were sold a bill of goods that was not there. They were from Scandanavia and were quite used to cold climates anyway. The Norse stayed in Greenland for 500 years. So, it must have been a viable place to live at the time. I did a bit of investigation into this period some time ago while looking at climate data and human history. There is a theory that the Vikings may have actually reached British Colombia around Vancouver during this period by sailing the Artic Ocean which was more than likely ice free for a longer part of the year. Since the last glacial maximum the Earth has had several swings of temperatures up and down over periods of time. And, humanity developed and grew most in these periods of more warmth. Cold climate is not too beneficial to our species. Since all evidence is that we are in an Interglacial period. The ice will come again. How soon is a big question. On the NOAA site there is a whole area dedicated to Abrupt Climate Change. It appears that the Earths climate has swung many times from warm to cold over short periods of time. That does not mean we are going into the next ice age now. But, there is no guarantee we are not either.

dk

Well, we are both right:

Etymology

The name Greenland comes from Scandinavian settlers. In the Icelandic sagas, it is said that Norwegian-born Erik the Red was exiled from Iceland for murder. He, along with his extended family and thralls, set out in ships to find the land that was rumoured to be to the northwest. After settling there, he named the land Grœnland ("Greenland") in the hope that the pleasant name would attract settlers.[37][38] Greenland was also called Gruntland ("Ground-land") and Engronelant (or Engroneland) on early maps. Whether green is an erroneous transcription of grunt ("ground"), which refers to shallow bays, or vice versa, is not known. The southern portion of Greenland (not covered by glacier) is indeed very green in the summer and was probably even greener in Erik's time during the Medieval Warm Period.

It isn't likely that the land was named solely because it was green though, as their home countries would have been MUCH greener.

The Vikings did land in Newfoundland in 1,000 AD though.

Edit: Also, I found this, "The ice in the current ice sheet is as old as 110,000 years" so there has been much ice there for a long time.

Edited by Zeeth

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amazondk

Thanks Keith.

This whole climate change discussion going on around the world gets even comical at times. In October news came out that the North Pole would be ice free for the first time in human history. Now how would they no that. I do not think any one was looking at the North Pole in early warm periods since the end of the last ice age. And, from what I read some say that the old ice was blown off the area of the North Pole and that new thiner ice is there now. Which is easier to melt. I have also read the percipitation patterns coupled with wind changes are responsible for a lot of the changes in the Artic ice cap. But, all of that depends on whose article you read. Birch trees one time grew in the artic circle, so things must have been much warmer.

dk

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amazondk

That is quite interesting Steve.

I found this info sort or pertinent as well.

Temperatures

dk

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_Keith
That is quite interesting Steve.

I found this info sort or pertinent as well.

Temperatures

dk

Just remember, you heard it here first. At least on PalmTalk, lol.

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Zeeth

A few things I've got to say:

#1, This November had a couple of snaps into the mid 50's (I think 53 was the lowest I saw, but it might have been a bit lower) but overall it has stayed pretty much between 70-80F. From what I've heard, a warm November USUALLY means that that winter will be warm (remember, I said usually). Coupled with the fact that Farmer's Almanac predicts a warmer than normal winter, I've got my fingers crossed for no temps below 34F and no frost. I've been trying to collect tall type coconuts specifically for the purpose of dealing with the low temps we get every once in a while better than the dwarves, but I don't want their first winter to be cold after living in warm places like Guatemala or Key Largo.

#2, It seems my winter temps typically bottom out at 40-50F for absolute minimum when we receive typical weather. It is usually only when we get gusts of air from the Arctic that we see below that threshold, which pushes us into the low 30's sometimes. I think it may be possible that places like where I live would be about .5-1 zones warmer if the air only traveled from the tropics, and not from the arctic. This means that sometimes things like a warm November may mean nothing when we get a huge blast of air in January from the arctic. I think if there was someway to prevent that air from coming down here we would see much warmer winters across Florida, but, unfortunately that really isn't conceivable.

#3, I believe that Global warming is real, but the numbers scientists give out that would change the world are very small, so most people wouldn't notice them, like 3 degrees Fahrenheit in 100 years. Many animals may go extinct, but the earth will recover like it always has, and many more people will be able to grow coconuts! Either way though, whether global warming will be bad or not, it never hurts to pollute less, as your great, great grandchildren will want to be able to live in a world where they can breath freely and the skies will still be clear!

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amazondk

Keith,

I agree 100 percent that we need to be better stewards of our planet. But, that does not mean that human influence has impacted a warming trend or even a cooling trend to any major degree. I believe, that is an opinion, that cooling is more likely than warming over the medium and long run. And, I really don´t see what humans can do to change things much quickly even if they are a major factor in climate change. Here where I live it really makes very little difference. Western Amazonia has been a tropical forest through the last ice ages and would continue to be. The eastern part of Amazonia became savanna vegetation due to a cooler drie climate in the last ice. But, where I am was pretty much what it is today. That is one of the reasons why our forest has a much higher species count than that to the east.

dk

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Zeeth
Keith,

I agree 100 percent that we need to be better stewards of our planet. But, that does not mean that human influence has impacted a warming trend or even a cooling trend to any major degree. I believe, that is an opinion, that cooling is more likely than warming over the medium and long run. And, I really don´t see what humans can do to change things much quickly even if they are a major factor in climate change. Here where I live it really makes very little difference. Western Amazonia has been a tropical forest through the last ice ages and would continue to be. The eastern part of Amazonia became savanna vegetation due to a cooler drie climate in the last ice. But, where I am was pretty much what it is today. That is one of the reasons why our forest has a much higher species count than that to the east.

dk

Yeah, no matter what, where you are probably won't change at all...

Here, as long as my house doesn't go under water, I'll not be too upset if things warm up. If they end up cooling down that'll be another story.

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_Keith

More info coming in that makes one think just maybe this year will be different. - k

Houston's Forecast for the weekend from The Houston Chronicle.

The high temperature Friday will struggle to reach the low 40s and the low will be in the upper 20s. The record low for the date is 27, set in 1897.

Normal temperatures in Houston for this time of year range between the upper 60s to mid-40s.

As much as about two inches of snow could accumulate in some spots, but it will be a brief snowfall if it comes down at all.

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gsn

I have no idea if this will be the coldest winter in 10-15 years, neither do the forecasters!!!

I will make the observation that this November 2009 in central Florida had a mean average temp 8 degrees warmer than last November 2008 November was damn cold here last year!

What does this tell you, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, other than it was warmer this year. December, January,and Febuary could be colder than last year or warmer than last year, or the same, nobody KNOWS! :lol:

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bubba

Beyond Global Warming, it is interesting that almost all news these days comes from the UK!

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John Case
A few things I've got to say:

#1, This November had a couple of snaps into the mid 50's (I think 53 was the lowest I saw, but it might have been a bit lower) but overall it has stayed pretty much between 70-80F. From what I've heard, a warm November USUALLY means that that winter will be warm (remember, I said usually). Coupled with the fact that Farmer's Almanac predicts a warmer than normal winter, I've got my fingers crossed for no temps below 34F and no frost. I've been trying to collect tall type coconuts specifically for the purpose of dealing with the low temps we get every once in a while better than the dwarves, but I don't want their first winter to be cold after living in warm places like Guatemala or Key Largo.

#2, It seems my winter temps typically bottom out at 40-50F for absolute minimum when we receive typical weather. It is usually only when we get gusts of air from the Arctic that we see below that threshold, which pushes us into the low 30's sometimes. I think it may be possible that places like where I live would be about .5-1 zones warmer if the air only traveled from the tropics, and not from the arctic. This means that sometimes things like a warm November may mean nothing when we get a huge blast of air in January from the arctic. I think if there was someway to prevent that air from coming down here we would see much warmer winters across Florida, but, unfortunately that really isn't conceivable.

#3, I believe that Global warming is real, but the numbers scientists give out that would change the world are very small, so most people wouldn't notice them, like 3 degrees Fahrenheit in 100 years. Many animals may go extinct, but the earth will recover like it always has, and many more people will be able to grow coconuts! Either way though, whether global warming will be bad or not, it never hurts to pollute less, as your great, great grandchildren will want to be able to live in a world where they can breath freely and the skies will still be clear!

#1 - Local anomalies do not apply when discussing GW over long periods of time. Here in NorCal, we also get warm spells in February. Many times the grapevines are tricked into budding out and the vintners have to provide water and wind machines through March to prevent damage to the vines.

#2 - See #1

#3 - GW is not a belief system. Either the data is present or it is not. If the data do not support the theory, either change the theory or find more data to support it. This is what the media and the 'climate scientists' are trying to avoid. We all get bombarded by junk science every day from non-scientists and are expected to believe on faith. You comments on pollution are really another argument altogether. I agree with you that we should pollute less but this argument has nothing to do with GW. The current beliefmongers are mixing the message. Our EPA has declared CO2 a pollutant, which is pure fantasy.

In the world of global warming, before you agree with someone, ask yourself this question, 'What motivation would cause this person to say this to me'? Always question motives, especially if it is going to cost you money.

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Zeeth
A few things I've got to say:

#1, This November had a couple of snaps into the mid 50's (I think 53 was the lowest I saw, but it might have been a bit lower) but overall it has stayed pretty much between 70-80F. From what I've heard, a warm November USUALLY means that that winter will be warm (remember, I said usually). Coupled with the fact that Farmer's Almanac predicts a warmer than normal winter, I've got my fingers crossed for no temps below 34F and no frost. I've been trying to collect tall type coconuts specifically for the purpose of dealing with the low temps we get every once in a while better than the dwarves, but I don't want their first winter to be cold after living in warm places like Guatemala or Key Largo.

#2, It seems my winter temps typically bottom out at 40-50F for absolute minimum when we receive typical weather. It is usually only when we get gusts of air from the Arctic that we see below that threshold, which pushes us into the low 30's sometimes. I think it may be possible that places like where I live would be about .5-1 zones warmer if the air only traveled from the tropics, and not from the arctic. This means that sometimes things like a warm November may mean nothing when we get a huge blast of air in January from the arctic. I think if there was someway to prevent that air from coming down here we would see much warmer winters across Florida, but, unfortunately that really isn't conceivable.

#3, I believe that Global warming is real, but the numbers scientists give out that would change the world are very small, so most people wouldn't notice them, like 3 degrees Fahrenheit in 100 years. Many animals may go extinct, but the earth will recover like it always has, and many more people will be able to grow coconuts! Either way though, whether global warming will be bad or not, it never hurts to pollute less, as your great, great grandchildren will want to be able to live in a world where they can breath freely and the skies will still be clear!

#1 - Local anomalies do not apply when discussing GW over long periods of time. Here in NorCal, we also get warm spells in February. Many times the grapevines are tricked into budding out and the vintners have to provide water and wind machines through March to prevent damage to the vines.

#2 - See #1

#3 - GW is not a belief system. Either the data is present or it is not. If the data do not support the theory, either change the theory or find more data to support it. This is what the media and the 'climate scientists' are trying to avoid. We all get bombarded by junk science every day from non-scientists and are expected to believe on faith. You comments on pollution are really another argument altogether. I agree with you that we should pollute less but this argument has nothing to do with GW. The current beliefmongers are mixing the message. Our EPA has declared CO2 a pollutant, which is pure fantasy.

In the world of global warming, before you agree with someone, ask yourself this question, 'What motivation would cause this person to say this to me'? Always question motives, especially if it is going to cost you money.

1 and 2 had nothing to do with global warming actually. I was just talking about this coming winter in general. I do know that whether this winter is cold or warm really has nothing to do with global warming, as it's effects are only felt when you really look back after a long time.

I could start an argument on GW and we could go back and fourth exchanging arguments and not convincing each other of anything, and in the end both of us would still believe exactly the same thing. In a website dedicated to talking about palm trees I don't really feel like doing that, so I'm just going to leave off on that.

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_Keith

OK, guys, I started this thread for some fun conversation around a cold winter and the outside possibility that it might have something to do with sunspots. It has nothing to do with global warming, or any of the politics or opinions that go with it. Continuation along these lines will result in posts or even the entire thread being deleted.

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amazondk

I would suggest that the converstation keep politics and global warming out of it our this thread will be history.

dk

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_Keith

Just saw this chart updated last month. This ain't your normal sunspot cycle. That much is for sure.

post-1207-1259810905_thumb.gif

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PalmGuyWC
I would suggest that the converstation keep politics and global warming out of it our this thread will be history.

dk

I see we had maximum sun spot activity in the '89/90 period, and we had one of the worst freezes ever recorded in the USA.......and Mexico. So what gives? I can't remember exactly when but back in the 80's there was a lot of volcanic activity. I was flying then and at altitude you could see layers of dust which hung around for 2 or 3 years. As I recall, our summer and winter weather was cooler then from the blockage of sunlight by the volcanic dust. One huge volcanic eruption can produce more polution than all of mankind.

Dick

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Paul The Palm Doctor!

I'll deal with whatever occurs. I cannot make a big deal out of things when I knew that I bought inappropriate palms (and other true tropical plants) long ago.

I've enjoyed them for a long while and if they "go" from "record cold" am I supposed to react with depression, anger, disbelief, or a shrug of a shoulder (and a chainsaw in hand?)

Acceptance follows within a couple of weeks, and my checkbook undoubtedly will get a work out! What can one do when lousy weather (for our needs) occurs?? Accept it I reckon.

Whining about its unwelcome aftermath, and posting photos of dead or almost dead palms (and expressing disbelief and shock) only prolong the negative feelings (that run very deep.) I know this, but I cannot control when I will die either, and since I almost DID in 2008, via that truck that hit me at 50 MPH, I realise that ALL things are possible, and/or likely.

Keith has credible information, and I believe it. It just isn't going to push me into a some kind of frenzy of fear, because I can readily "view" in my mind already what a crappy look the landscape will attain. I'll clean it up, and have sticks to look at for two growing seasons probably. I'll hate the way things look, and I won't spend too much timev "soaking in this freeze carnage of record" because it won't do my mental health any favours!

Y'all might think that this is a stupid point-of-view but that's how I get through things like this that are so potentially overpowering in the negative sense! I really cannot afford to spend ANY MORE time in depression, ads I did after I was in coma and I flatlined on the heart monitor 3 times in the hospital last year. We'll be Relatively OK. Just don't deny that in any given year what Keith described CAN and WILL happen.

We really HAVE had a long run of good weather fortunes, in general though. It's been nice, hasn't it palm lovers?

Pablo :winkie:

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_Keith

We could break our all time record for earliest recorded snowfall here in S. Louisiana, but temps won't be that bad, hovering just above freezing. And Houston is gonna see 28, while we see 32. How crazy is that, when we normally average 3 to 5 degrees cooler here.

Also, a colder winter does not always mean super cold advective freezes. People often confuse weather with climate. I am talking about a statistically colder winter climatically. We'll have to wait for summer to run the numbers.

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_Keith

More evidence of a very non-normal year.

RARE SNOW FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS HOUSTON Today will go down as the earliest snowfall in Houston's history. Most school districts remain open, but HISD canceled after-school and weekend activities.

post-1207-1259944266_thumb.jpg

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velutina

Record lows here in Las Vegas too. Going to get down to 27F tonight!

"Record low maximum temperature tied in Las Vegas today...

The high temperature for December 4 at McCarran International

Airport in Las Vegas was 50 degrees. This reading tied the record

low maximum or coldest high temperature for the date which last

occurred in 1992.

This record is preliminary pending certification by the National

climatic data center."

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bubba

Listening to Fox News Weather person and he predicted this to be a very cold December/Winter retrograding to previous much colder time frames!

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amazondk

Bubba,

It was a bit cool when I got into Miami last night. And, it is even cooler here in Houston where I arrived a few hours ago.

dk

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