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Manolitus

Hurricane Felicia

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Manolitus

Members,

Just saw on the news that Hawaii may be hit by a CAT 4 hurricane in the next 5 days or so. I thought that hurricanes never hit Hawaii. To all our palm loving friends over there stay vigilant and don't take any storm lightly whatever the past history.

We here in Miami have way too much experience so DO NOT let your guards down.

Manny

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Jeff Searle

Manny,

Do you remember the path that it's on? Ohau, the Big Island? I'm heading out in 2 weeks, so I hope everyone is spared the damage.

Jeff

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rozpalm

If you look at the models and the official forecast, it is only expected to be at tropical depression strength as it approaches the big island. They expect the storm to weaken considerably as it nears the big island becuase of the 78deg. waters which will choke off the system.

post-1490-1249562429_thumb.png

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bayside mike
If you look at the models and the official forecast, it is only expected to be at tropical depression strength as it approaches the big island. They expect the storm to weaken considerably as it nears the big island becuase of the 78deg. waters which will choke off the system.

post-1490-1249562429_thumb.png

So you got that going for you :unsure:

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Manolitus
Manny,

Do you remember the path that it's on? Ohau, the Big Island? I'm heading out in 2 weeks, so I hope everyone is spared the damage.

Jeff

Look at the posts after yours. Hope that happens.....

Manny

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mike in kurtistown

As a previous poster said, the central Pacific waters are pretty cold, so even though hurricanes off the Pacific coast of Mexico often head toward the Big Island, they usually fizzle long before they get here. But Hurricane Flossie last year got close enough to give everyone a scare. Global warming is not helping.

Sometimes fizzled hurricanes (tropical depressions) moving westward to the south of the Hawaiian Islands regain strength as they continue westward. Iniki in 1992 did that, but because of some freak weather conditions, it turned north and passed through the channel between Kauai and Ni'ihau. That was a truly freak occurrence, I believe.

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amazon exotics

Couldn't a Depression still cause damaging floods there? In most cases with Tropical Storms they dump LOT'S of rain.

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bgl

Yes, they do dump a lot of rain, but flooding in most area is not an issue. We can get 10 inches of rain in a few hours and that's no big deal. It just disappears! Drainage is excellent here.

And I agree with Mike's conclusion above - it'll probably just fizzle out. Every year (hurricane season), there's usually one or two hurricanes that seem to take dead aim at Hawaii (and usually Hilo). Generally, one of three things happen:

1 - they veer to the north of the islands

2 - they veer to the south of the islands

3 - they fizzle out

(or a combination of the above)

The ONE and ONLY exception in recorded history is Iniki that hit Kauai in September 1992 and caused major devastation. (There have been a few other, minor, ones but nothing that caused major devastation). So, even though we've only had ONE major hurricane in Hawaii in hundreds of years, the weather forecasters still like to get people in a frenzy and panic. I'm sure they're doing the best they can, but fact is, they don't have a very good track record predicting these things. (And personally, I completely dismissed Flossy last year - was convinced it would not be an issue, and as it happened we hardly had any wind at all when it was passing by!). Two nights ago, on the news, the weather forecast lady said (these are her exact words) "it's not time to panic yet" - implying that the time to panic would soon be here. Even though it's important to be aware when storms and hurricanes are approaching, I don't see the need for this kind of excessive and disturbing behavior. Yeah, I know - at some point we WILL have a major hurricane here. Who knows, maybe next week, maybe next year or maybe a hundred years from now. In the meantime, it's always a good idea to be prepared but I'm not going to change any plans because of this!

And I'm moving this thread to the Weather section!

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kahili

Most of the flooding is contained by the narrow streams that run down from the valleys and run into the bays. If the streams get enough water, they will wash out some of the bridges near the bays that are low enough. Most of the damage is from the winds to the trees etc. This applys for Maui. the Big Island doesn't have the streams/bridges that Maui has.

I remember one in the 80's that hung around for 5 days-we went up Haleakala as far as maybe 6-7,000 ft altitude and had to turn back as the winds were really gusting hard and the huge eucalyptus were starting to drop across the roads. We were lucky to get back home before the streams came up in West Maui. Where I lived in West Maui, it was up a valley and you had to cross the stream twice. Once it comes up a foot, the force is so strong that it becomes very dangerous to cross. Higher than that and you start to see huge trees flying by in the water and you can hear the boulders being moved down the stream. They make a loud thunderous sound. Pretty intimidating to see.

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MikeL

While local newscasters tend to be over-the-top on just about everything, I think that the US National Weather Service does a pretty good job at conveying its best, current understanding of the situation without being alarmist. Case in point is the most recent bulletin from the NWS office in Honolulu:

Hurricane Felicia is currently a little more than 1500 miles east southeast of Hilo, maintaining its strength but expected to begin weakening later today. The long range forecast for our state is concerned with general effects of a weakened tropical system that produces strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall since Felicia is currently expected to arrive in our area as a tropical depression. Nonetheless Felicia will be closely monitored and the public should seek to remain informed on subsequent forecast issuances in case the system remains stronger than expected. Felicia may bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to portions of the state by Monday. The public is cautioned to have a hurricane preparedness plan in place during the official central north Pacific hurricane season, which continues through November 30.

I'm hoping for the best from this event: some welcome rainfall with only mild winds. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Mike

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JasonD
Yes, they do dump a lot of rain, but flooding in most area is not an issue. We can get 10 inches of rain in a few hours and that's no big deal. It just disappears! Drainage is excellent here.

And I agree with Mike's conclusion above - it'll probably just fizzle out. Every year (hurricane season), there's usually one or two hurricanes that seem to take dead aim at Hawaii (and usually Hilo). Generally, one of three things happen:

1 - they veer to the north of the islands

2 - they veer to the south of the islands

3 - they fizzle out

(or a combination of the above)

The ONE and ONLY exception in recorded history is Iniki that hit Kauai in September 1992 and caused major devastation. (There have been a few other, minor, ones but nothing that caused major devastation). So, even though we've only had ONE major hurricane in Hawaii in hundreds of years, the weather forecasters still like to get people in a frenzy and panic. I'm sure they're doing the best they can, but fact is, they don't have a very good track record predicting these things. (And personally, I completely dismissed Flossy last year - was convinced it would not be an issue, and as it happened we hardly had any wind at all when it was passing by!). Two nights ago, on the news, the weather forecast lady said (these are her exact words) "it's not time to panic yet" - implying that the time to panic would soon be here. Even though it's important to be aware when storms and hurricanes are approaching, I don't see the need for this kind of excessive and disturbing behavior. Yeah, I know - at some point we WILL have a major hurricane here. Who knows, maybe next week, maybe next year or maybe a hundred years from now. In the meantime, it's always a good idea to be prepared but I'm not going to change any plans because of this!

And I'm moving this thread to the Weather section!

Don't forget Hurricane Iwa that struck Kaua'i in 1982, at the beginning of an El Nino:

Hurricanes in Hawaii

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bgl

You're right - I did forget that one. So, TWO serious hurricanes in 200 years...!

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TikiRick

Well, I think I may be one of the folks here on PalmTalk that has seen my major shares of hurricanes. Living in Miami since 1961 and then Tallahassee during school, I have at last count---lived through or been sideswiped by 18 hurricanes! I remember as a kid living in Ft. Lauderdale, my dad took me outdoors when the eye was directly over. I can remember seagulls flying in circles for about an hour or so of sun, then all hell broke loose again.

Every year, especially in late August, we here in South Florida hold our breaths for "is this the year that we get wiped off the map?" But I do agree that news stations thrive on sensationalism and stir people into a needless frenzy.

I laughed last year, when some depression was forming about oh, 800 miles out to sea and they of course rushed to Home Depot to see who was preparing. There was no one there except for some elderly man with a few things in his cart. "Are you preparing for this storm, sir?" "What storm? I am buying potting soil for my flowers."

That sums it all up.

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Manolitus
You're right - I did forget that one. So, TWO serious hurricanes in 200 years...!

Bo,

I guess I posted this on the wrong forum. :unsure:

Sorry.

Manny

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Paul The Palm Doctor!

Godspeed to you all!

Paul

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happ

SoCal has experienced relatively low humidity & wind. According to the NWS it is due to the "exhaust" of Felicia.

NWS_SAN DIEGO 8-5-09

"REMARKABLY DRY CLEAR AIR MASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY LINKED TO STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT FROM DISTANT HURRICANE FELICIA AND LOCAL SUBSIDENCE OVER SOCAL. IN ANY EVENT...THE DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT STRATUS FORMATION TONIGHT AND ONLY EXPECTING PATCHES ALONG THE COAST BY SUNRISE UNDER THE 800 FT INVERSION. OTHERWISE SKY CLEAR EXCEPT PATCHES OF CIRRUS...AND SOME LENTICULAR OVER THE MTS...THROUGH THURSDAY. BETTER DEVELOPED AND DEEPER MARINE LAYER EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BROAD TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND MODERATE TURBULENCE OVER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 35KT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH".

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Wai`anae Steve

NO RAIN PLEASE!!!!

I've just about cut all the grass down that grew this past winter. I don't want rain. I can still afford to water everything that I "WANT" to grow.

I'd hate to loose ground before finishing the summer cleaning.

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bgl

Steve,

this is the hurricane season! Hopefully we won't get any hurricanes but chances are we WILL get rain! :mrlooney:

Bo-Göran

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epicure3

So, if the water temp was just another 2F warmer, HI might have more hurricanes? That's an awfully close set of circumstances.

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Wai`anae Steve
Steve,

this is the hurricane season! Hopefully we won't get any hurricanes but chances are we WILL get rain! :mrlooney:

Bo-Göran

Looks like it changed course and is now heading south of your island.

Hurricane Felicia

That's good. Hope it stays south of Lat 20. That would mean less rain and if it passes south of the island perhaps some nice surf on the south and west side of O`ahu.

Perhaps you'll get your rain and I'll get my surf :lol:

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Dypsisdean

Steve,

In the link you provided, it looks like a Bull's Eye on the Big Island to me. In fact the circle that says "D" "5AM Tuesday" is directly above my house.

But as a Tropical Depression at that point, I can only hope for a good deluge.

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Wai`anae Steve
Steve,

In the link you provided, it looks like a Bull's Eye on the Big Island to me. In fact the circle that says "D" "5AM Tuesday" is directly above my house.

But as a Tropical Depression at that point, I can only hope for a good deluge.

Yup, should a done the zoom. Much better picture. Good luck Dean. I'm gonna climb the mountain I planned on this Wed tomorrow to stay away from the mud.

Hope the weather is ok for Haleakala fromt he 23-26 when I'll be in the crater. Perhaps this will fill up the water tanks at the cabins :lol:

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Dypsisdean

Steve,

Looks like it veered a little in your direction.

It may go right over Haleakala if it veers a tad more. :)

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bgl

My personal prediction: it'll veer even more to the north, and all we're going to experience here at our location is some rain but no increase in winds to speak of. I think the "eye" will stay completely north of the islands, assuming it doesn't fizzle out completely before it gets close to us. This is based on nothing but a hunch!

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Dypsisdean

Well Bo, It looks like it is following your "advice."

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BS Man about Palms

Hey guys, if it DOES get close, do us all a favor, go snap a pic of your most "fragile" plants before the storm.

And for those of you who have seen "a Christmas story", thats pronounced "Frah-Jeel-Lay".

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John Case
Hey guys, if it DOES get close, do us all a favor, go snap a pic of your most "fragile" plants before the storm.

And for those of you who have seen "a Christmas story", thats pronounced "Frah-Jeel-Lay".

a must for your Italian palms.... :drool:

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JEFF IN MODESTO

Lastest report has it as a Tropical storm with 40 mph winds.... predictions now have in passing right over Oahu on tuesday.

Jeff

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bgl

Latest official prediction - it'll cross right over Oahu and Kauai. Since I didn't believe any of the earlier predictions, I'm going to be concistent and assume this one is incorrect as well. I still believe it'll remain north of the islands, and that would include Oahu and Kauai.

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MikeL

Felicia has weakened significantly recently but it wasn't really brought down by cooler ocean temperatures; it seems that there is enough warm water this time of year to sustain a large tropical storm, and maybe even a hurricane. Instead Felicia is being torn apart by high level, westerly winds. You can easily see the effect of the winds in satellite images which show the low-level eye of the storm separating from its attendant higher level thunderstorms. Pretty fascinating.

The latest models still give the storm - or more likely, a tropical depression - a good chance of landing a direct hit on the Big Island. I'm willing to take that bet against Bo's prediction of a veer to the north.

Mike

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sonoranfans

An interesting link

http://www.kitv.com/weather/20299819/detail.html

"Historically most of the hurricane that come from the east, like Hurricane Felicia, have fizzled out when they hit an area of colder waters east of the Big Island. They include: Hurricane Daniel in 2000, Hurricane Jimena in 2003,
 Hurricane Jova in 2005 and Hurricane Flossie in 2007."

It would seem that hurricanes that come from the east have to pass over the cooler water east of big island. Since we know that the ocean currents flow from Alaska to California on the west coast, it stands to reason that the waters there are generally cooler than the waters right around the islands. the important water temps are not those of Hawaii, but rather those several hundred miles east/southeast of Hawaii. The cool west coast waters are what protects California from hurricanes. They are likely warmer towards Hawaii, but apparently cool enough to make a difference. Like Bo says, 2 times in 200 years is a remarkably low stat. I think Massachusetts has seen alot more hurricanes than that.

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MikeL

I'm personally looking forward to getting some rain on Maui. We rely completely on capturing rainfall for all our household and irrigation water and this is typically the driest time of year in Hawaii. And, as Bo points out, much of the islands can handle a lot of rainfall in a short time.

But not every part of the islands has such efficient drainage as the area around Bo's place, and the leeward, drier parts of the islands are vulnerable to flash floods. I got caught in one of these floods this past February on the other side of the side of the mountains from where Bo lives, on a small road between Waimea and Waikaloa Village. I've attached a photo I snapped from my camera of an impromptu river surging across the road just before I gave up and turned around. That water was moving very fast, carrying logs and boulders with it, and it eventually reached a depth of a couple of feet. I decided that I didn't want to end up on the evening news - you know, that guy sitting on top of his car waiting for a rescue helicopter to snatch him up. As I retraced my track back up the highway, I passed a couple of cops just starting to erect a roadblock.

Mike

post-1659-1249921973_thumb.jpg

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Wai`anae Steve

Just spent a hour raking leaves out of my "dry" stream. Took some small branches also.

I really don't need rain even though I've only had 4.4 inches all year.

Water from the pipe is still cheap.

Latest track has it going right between Hawai`i and Maui

storm track

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Paul The Palm Doctor!

To our HI palm lovers:

I think Felicia will mostly behave herself, but I know that tropical weather anxiety can still be maddening! I wanted to wish all our mid-Pacific brothers & sisters the best of non-outcomes with this storm; God knows it could have been a lot more furious! (Thank you, Pacific Ocean, for featuring under critical threshold water temperatures, between Mexico & Hawaii!) Gracias!

All my best wishes to you all!

Paul

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paulgila

dewd,yer talking to an inanimate object!

:mellow:

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www.dadluvsu.com

It was funny listening to the radio on The Big Island with Felicia bearing down on the island chain last week. Native FM was blasting how bad Hawaii was gonna git pummelled and it was going to be catastrophic and blah blah blah. Media hype sells advertisements. At least there were some good songs here and there in between ads. :)

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John Case

The unsaid so far is how thankful I am that the hurricane did not come to fruition.

Disasters confront us from every side....thanks that this one did not materialize.

Congrats everyone on the islands.

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John in Andalucia

Who named it "Felicia" a.k.a. "Hurricane Happy/Lucky"? Maybe the weathermen were on to something. As you say Bill, it doesn't stop the media from predicting catastrophe. Well, I hope you all got a jolly good shower at the most!

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bgl

Well, maybe it's not going to head north of the islands but it sure did fizzle out. BIG time! We didn't even get an inch of rain out of this system! Pathetic! And this morning is an absolutely incredible morning. Mostly sunny with a very light breeze. If satellites didn't exist and if no one here on the island had been informed that we were expecting a Category 4 hurricane, we would never have known that we were in grave danger! :) Would that be good or bad...? :huh:

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Dypsisdean

Same here Bo.

It was supposed to hit this side early this morning. Not a drop, and not a cloud in the sky, It hasn't been this blue in a while.

Since things never go exactly as planned, I'm starting to feel pretty safe when they predict a major event, and that it is going directly over my house. And this isn't the first time. It seems to be the norm. That assures it won't be major, and it won't be going over my house.

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