Economy imporving!?

[Borgy230]

Any one read about the profits taht Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan/Chase just posted. And those profits are AFTER they already paid back the money loaned by the government!

[bubba]

Goldman may have this entire country rigged. Do not judge the status of our economy by Goldman!

[Palm Guy]

Saw a bumper sticker on a brand new convertible Rolls in Boca recently... It said "I REFUSE to participate in a recession."

Bumper stickers on Rolls'... This town is sick.

hahaha...Thats messed up.

[Palm Guy]

Folks I'm in two minds about this economy. Not sure I entirely believe all is good and dandy but I do believe we may have seen the low already. At some point we need to stop being pessimistic, myself included.

Bubba does have a point in that the earnings numbers may not be as transparent as I would like. These companies have great accounting techniques that make this qtr look spectacular only to find a terrible following qtr.

Kathryn - sorry to hear about your friends dilemma. I know of a few people that made a few poor decisions also. Hopefully, he makes it out alright.

Earnings news this month will be critical. Citigroup and Bank of America announce earnings tomorrow. We'll see what happens. Best of luck to all and chins up!

[Borgy230]

I for one think we have deffinitly seen bottom, MSNBC reports today that Citygroup posts 3 billion $ profit, Bank of America posts $2.4Billion, and all this AFTER they have already paid back government loans! MSNBC also reports that new home construction is at a 7 month high.

Now, how long it takes the economy to improve to where we all feel comfortable is another question!

[John Case]

I for one think we have deffinitly seen bottom, MSNBC reports today that Citygroup posts 3 billion $ profit, Bank of America posts $2.4Billion, and all this AFTER they have already paid back government loans! MSNBC also reports that new home construction is at a 7 month high.

Now, how long it takes the economy to improve to where we all feel comfortable is another question!

I do not believe that either Citi or BofA has paid back their TARP funds.

[bubba]

MSNBC can cheerlead all they want. Let's throw another trillion or two out there and see what happens.

[Kim]

I for one think we have deffinitly seen bottom, MSNBC reports today that Citygroup posts 3 billion $ profit, Bank of America posts $2.4Billion, and all this AFTER they have already paid back government loans! MSNBC also reports that new home construction is at a 7 month high.

Now, how long it takes the economy to improve to where we all feel comfortable is another question!

I do not believe that either Citi or BofA has paid back their TARP funds.

You are correct. However, nine other banks have made significant headway in their TARP repayments.

Citi's profit comes largely from the sale of my employer, Smith Barney, a one-time gain. I kind of feel like I am in the lifeboat looking back at the wallowing ship. She may float again, but she's got to get to port for an overhaul. (And I had to leave my belongings behind when we abandoned ship!)

I think we'll have a few more bumps, but I am optimistic that the worst of it is behind us; we have survived the fall into the crevasse, but still have some climbing to do to get out. All recessions eventually end-- the longest was 43 months, and that was the Great Depression. This is bad, but it's not the Great Depression. I'm a believer in good old American -and international- ingenuity. New ideas, fresh starts, realignments, and entrepreneurial efforts will lead us out of this. Rope up, grab your ice ax and crampons and put some muscle into it or be left behind.

[DoomsDave]

Folks I'm in two minds about this economy. Not sure I entirely believe all is good and dandy but I do believe we may have seen the low already. At some point we need to stop being pessimistic, myself included.

Bubba does have a point in that the earnings numbers may not be as transparent as I would like. These companies have great accounting techniques that make this qtr look spectacular only to find a terrible following qtr.

Kathryn - sorry to hear about your friends dilemma. I know of a few people that made a few poor decisions also. Hopefully, he makes it out alright.

Earnings news this month will be critical. Citigroup and Bank of America announce earnings tomorrow. We'll see what happens. Best of luck to all and chins up!

Bubba is more right than even he wants to know. Our office does cases of investment fraud all the time, and cooked books are as popular as caviar on Wall Street.

[DoomsDave]

Hmm.

I'm glad to see some banks getting back up to speed again, but I don't think that's the real problem.

As companies shed workers, there's a possiblity many won't be called back at all, even as things improve. We've seen this already, on a smaller scale, in the 1980s.

Downsizing on steroids.

And while the "super recession" of the Great Depression lasted 43 months, the unemployment that went with it lasted much much longer, until World War II. Hopefully we'll avoid a repeat of that as well.

[Urban Rainforest]

I am an optimist too but first and foremost I am a realist and I believe this thing is far far from over. There is currently only one news channel (fox) that is telling the truth and ALL the rest are spin and lies! I heard today that if you factor in just the people that have had their hours cut to part time in Cali. that the unemployment rate would be 17% . Now if you factor in all of the people that are self employed or no longer qualify for benefits then your getting closer to great deppression numbers . My wife recently had her hours cut almost in half to 24 hrs. a week. That means we lost over $700 a month which really has screwed up our budget . I seriously don't think our dream financial team could run a lemonade stand let alone our national economy! As they start raising taxes on small business it will kill more jobs. Right now in Cali. the pre forecloser rate is almost twice the forecloser rate...that is not a bottom! I work in a very posh part of San Diego called Del Mar. Just in the last 2 weeks I have seen 5 more retail stores clean out there belongings and put up the for lease sign. They call these see through malls cuz as you drive by you can see right through them. They say the next two shoes to drop will be commercial realastate and credit default. Other than that every thing is just great . I hope everybody here is able to keep there jobs and homes and seeks the truth.

Stevo

[Mats]

There is currently only one news channel (fox) that is telling the truth and ALL the rest are spin and lies!

FOX News tells the truth???

Ha Ha ha...

That's hilarious!

[Kathryn]

I don't think we have seen the worse yet. Some of the major banks are showing profits now, but their balance sheets are not accurate. Once more mortgage foreclosures and real estate loan delequencies come to light, things will get much worse.

[Urban Rainforest]

There is currently only one news channel (fox) that is telling the truth and ALL the rest are spin and lies!

FOX News tells the truth???

Ha Ha ha...

That's hilarious!

To each his own . I've listened to the verbal diareah on the other national news channels and it's nauseating Oh, and by the way DEATH TO THE DELTA SMELT Or at least use them all for bait .

Stevo

[John Case]

I don't think we have seen the worse yet. Some of the major banks are showing profits now, but their balance sheets are not accurate. Once more mortgage foreclosures and real estate loan delequencies come to light, things will get much worse.

I have given this some thought and I must admit that while it seems logical, it isn't.

The major banks (BofA, Wells, Chase, etc.) are not holding the deliquent mortgages. They have packaged them and sold them to 'investors' as securities. Some of these investors you know, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, etc.

The major hit may not have hit yet, but many of these packages were sold overseas.

The banks are not in any manner in a rush to get them off the books, as they collect monthly servicing fees for the mortgages.....it is the investors that must sell these non-performing assets.

It is bad, but the ones that will be hit the worst are the investors who havein many cases been sold a bill of goods. Pricing the securities has been the problem as the waves of the foreclosure market hit.

Wave one - The real estate speculators - folks who bought a 2nd or 3rd, or more home to flip and lost in the 'biggest fool' contest. Most of these are gone.

Wave two - First time homebuyers with bad loans. There are a lot of variations on this theme, but as a rule, these folks were squeezed out by the speculators and made bad decisions a a result. most of these are done.

Wave three - Walkaways - People who think the home is an investment but decide that it makes no sense to pay what they owe when they can buy another property of the same quality for the same price. Most of these are done.

Wave four - The newly unemployed. We are in mid-stream

Wave five - the last of the mortgage resets which do not begin in earnest until next year.

I think we will see a lot of properties for sale for the next year but prices should hold, unles we see unemployment go to 15%. Then Katie bar the door.

[Dave-Vero]

Eric from Orlando is visiting Ikea on weekends. Weekdays are pretty quiet. They've cut store hours.

Vero Beach is getting a new Fresh Market, but retail is otherwise cratering. Houses are beginning to sell, but at low prices.

[Vincent]

Employment is key. Here in southwest Florida we are at 11% unemployment. Without jobs, it does not matter how much lower mortgages are. I agree, if employment slips, it could get ugly. My grandfather worked for the federal government building roads during the depression of the 1930's. I thought that Obama's plan would be similar in the sense that jobs would be created. Maybe we need another stimulus? Or, we can all start writing iou notes like California. Regarding the markets, even if it is an illusion, I am all for it if it helps. Consumers are tapped out, upside down on their house, concerned about their jobs and many 401ks have been hit hard. Green economy? I'll settle for anything.

[Kathryn]

I'm enjoying the latest stock market rally, but am retreating now because I know it can't last. Many companies are reporting profits based on cost cutting, which can not be sustained. In addition, there are more home foreclosures coming - not to mention the commercial foreclosures that will follow. The New Orleans area was already hit hard by Katrina and wasn't effected as bad as some areas initially, but I'm afraid it will get worse before getting better. A lot of people are still worried about layoffs and aren't spending. I have friends in the retail and restaurant businesses and they are still suffering very much. Luckily I am in an industry that will have demand for many years and I made it through our last round of layoffs, but I never know what is coming.

[DoomsDave]

There is currently only one news channel (fox) that is telling the truth and ALL the rest are spin and lies!

FOX News tells the truth???

Ha Ha ha...

That's hilarious!

SAD!

I'll avoid controversy . . .

[DoomsDave]

Well, no.

Fox is to objectivity like fecal material is to perfume, assuming normal tastes . . .

[Jerry@TreeZoo]

Who knows if the economy is improving? From what I see, there is no light yet discernible at the end of the tunnel. Last evening I took my better half to get her hair done. While she was in the shop, I walked around the shopping center and was amazed at the amount of vacant store fronts. Several had never been occupied and several more were obviously failed businesses. One still had the sheriff's eviction notice taped to the door. Mom and Pop retailers are getting killed, especially the new businesses.

We are in uncharted territory here and if someone tells you how things will turn out they are nuts. You can see a lot of common sense patterns but to really know when this turns around is impossible. It is my opinion that this is a cyclic sea change that happens to this country every 3 or 4 generations. The first was the Revolutionary War and the birth of this country, the second was the Civil War, the third was the Depression and now this new economy is number 4. I don't know what will happen but I do know this will be a fundamentally different country after it.

Jerry

[Jerry@TreeZoo]

Deleted double post.

Jerry

[waykoolplantz]

We seem to still be busy..."Saints & Sinners" make up a large portion of our business...(Churchs & Clubs)

[epicure3]

I am an optimist too but first and foremost I am a realist and I believe this thing is far far from over. There is currently only one news channel (fox) that is telling the truth and ALL the rest are spin and lies! I heard today that if you factor in just the people that have had their hours cut to part time in Cali. that the unemployment rate would be 17% . Now if you factor in all of the people that are self employed or no longer qualify for benefits then your getting closer to great deppression numbers . My wife recently had her hours cut almost in half to 24 hrs. a week. That means we lost over $700 a month which really has screwed up our budget . I seriously don't think our dream financial team could run a lemonade stand let alone our national economy! As they start raising taxes on small business it will kill more jobs. Right now in Cali. the pre forecloser rate is almost twice the forecloser rate...that is not a bottom! I work in a very posh part of San Diego called Del Mar. Just in the last 2 weeks I have seen 5 more retail stores clean out there belongings and put up the for lease sign. They call these see through malls cuz as you drive by you can see right through them. They say the next two shoes to drop will be commercial realastate and credit default. Other than that every thing is just great . I hope everybody here is able to keep there jobs and homes and seeks the truth.

Stevo

Cali has got the worst of the recession so far, no question. That is, as far as I know, since the media has been California bashing for the last couple of months. They love to do that for some reason.

[epicure3]

Well, no.

Fox is to objectivity like fecal material is to perfume, assuming normal tastes . . .

I gave up on Fox News years ago. A little too much, uhmmm....partisan coverage.

[Moose]

I am dismayed that there are individuals that took out a 30 year fixed mortagages 20-25 years ago that religiously made their payments, paid their taxes, worked and contributed to our society. Now due to corporate greed and institutional financial failure, these individuals find themselves out of work, savings gone and home ready to be foreclosed on. And we gave these financial institutional bastards a bailout?

[Kim]

I am dismayed that there are individuals that took out a 30 year fixed mortagages 20-25 years ago that religiously made their payments, paid their taxes, worked and contributed to our society. Now due to corporate greed and institutional financial failure, these individuals find themselves out of work, savings gone and home ready to be foreclosed on. And we gave these financial institutional bastards a bailout?

I do not believe the people you describe are the people having problems. Your statement reads like a non-sequitur.

[Palmə häl′ik]

I don't think it's improved. Atleast not here in the TampaBay area.

Maybe retail. But construction wise. I dunno...

I have many, many friends unemployed, with no prospects for the near future either... They just aren't building like they were in Tampa 5-15 years ago... It's tough times for the BlueCollar right now.

I'm rather lucky. I do industrial. They're always upgrading our infrastructures somehow...

But commercial and residential trades are suffering...

With no end in site.

The homes that will be bought in the near future will probably be existing. New home construction other than 'custom homes' are going to suffer.

No more quick sub-divisions; I think. GOOD.

They'll need to move the current stock first...

Not good for the BlueCollarMan though.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

~Ray.