Economy imporving!?

[Borgy230]

Is it just me? or is the economy improving? I have seen our business increase steadily over the last few weeks, and holding strong! The summer is usualy a DEAD time for us, but sales are not eveng staying flat, they are increasing!

What does everyone else see in their fields!?

Rob

[www.dadluvsu.com]

I can't wait till the economy imporves.

The used car industry is off about 40% currently, mostly due to customers not being able to obtain financing.

[John Case]

We are receiving multiple offers on homes that are newly listed on the mrket, although this applies mostly (95%) to new bank owned properties. However, the reason for this is that the foreclosute moratoriums have kept the TARP banks from releasing properties to market. This will change the dynamic, as the release of supply to the market will have an effect on prices, I just do not know by how much. Along with the predicted increase in interest rates, it gets muddier.

At this time, for every person in my area who is successful in purchasing property, there are ten who walk away disappointed.

[joe_OC]

I have seen an increase in activity on the business software front. We are much busier now than at the same time last year. Financing deals is much more difficult.

[Borgy230]

I agree, getting a bank to finance a project is extremely difficult now, not to blame them, but they would rather raise their interest rates on the debts they can collect, then acquire new ones.

However, I see a huge increase in the amount of people willing to privately fund projects. If you have money, now is a perfect time to invest in private projects and realestate!

[DoomsDave]

Is it just me? or is the economy improving? I have seen our business increase steadily over the last few weeks, and holding strong! The summer is usualy a DEAD time for us, but sales are not eveng staying flat, they are increasing!

What does everyone else see in their fields!?

Rob

What biz are in?

[DoomsDave]

Well, things are both better and worse. On the one hand, many of the deep pocket financial firms have lost their pants (or skirts, as it were . . . )

On the other, lots of people bilked by Bernie M have come calling.

[Borgy230]

I work for a large Event Planning company, our main customers are large corporate companies, sport franchises(teams and leagues), and also wealthy clients who do private parties in mainly Miami, NYC, and the Hamptons, but we do cater to all over the USA and Hawaii

[JakeK]

When people start buying the premium consumer goods again, then i'll believe the economy is improving. Spending discretionary income is one of my main measures for the health of the economy.

[Walter John]

No imporvment here.

[palmislandRandy]

I deal in industrial real estate, and untill a year ago never got much into leasing, specializing in sales to owner/users. Industrial prices dropped over 30% in the past couple of years & have just about bottomed. There's bargains & buyers out there if they can get the financing . I'm expecting a much better year!

[Palm Guy]

I'm still as poor as ever and need a bailout!

- Economy is showing signs of contraction ie its off it's lows but still pretty bad as people are still losing jobs. I'm in the market playing anything related to the inflation the US is bound to see in the near future. The traditional way to combat inflation has been to raise interest rates (that includes your mortgages - so thats goin to weed out a few potential buyers). Thats partly the reason why everyone has been running into the bond market.

Banks and other financial institutions may also benefit from the inflation as the higher interest rates are beneficial to their books.

Mike

[John Case]

I'm still as poor as ever and need a bailout!

- Economy is showing signs of contraction ie its off it's lows but still pretty bad as people are still losing jobs. I'm in the market playing anything related to the inflation the US is bound to see in the near future. The traditional way to combat inflation has been to raise interest rates (that includes your mortgages - so thats goin to weed out a few potential buyers). Thats partly the reason why everyone has been running into the bond market.

Banks and other financial institutions may also benefit from the inflation as the higher interest rates are beneficial to their books.

Mike

Higher interest rates mean lower placements of loans and higher defaults....with inflation, everyone loses.

[www.dadluvsu.com]

....with inflation, everyone loses.

can we just substitute the word greed for inflation in that sentence?

[BS Man about Palms]

No imporvment here.

Yes, but are you impoverished yet?

[Alicehunter2000]

Retail Liquor business is off approx. 10% in the first quarter.........huge.....because most of our costs are fixed.

[freakypalmguy]

You guys think you have it bad, try working in an industry that has been pummeled ever since 9/11. I took a 45% pay cut (actual pay rate cut), had my health benefits destroyed, and the company flushed my pension down the toilet in bankruptcy. I am VERY tired of this crap. First it's terrorists, now it's bankers and morons (I guess there the same, but you know what I mean).

[bubba]

The question is this: Who is doing better? Our area is dependent on Wall Street folk with Madison Ave penthouses, house in the Hamptons and one in Palm Beach. These folks are three sheets to the wind. They can't even sell their Madison Ave places. There simply is no market,no financing, no momentum and at best only false hope. The truth is greed finally caught up. The larceny that had become acceptable on Wall Street has been revealed. What goes around comes around but in the process trillions of dollars of wealth throughout our country have been lost in the stock market.

Without green coming into the system, say good-bye to new construction, which means construction workers default on their home mortgages, subcontractors are foreclosed on their office/warehouses and contractors loose their buildings. Notwithstanding news reports, the possibility of refinancing is non-existent. What Lender does a loan on a property that the Regulators will force them to immediately classify and put in their SAD Department?

This trickles down in every direction. The real players are on the sidelines because they have no idea which way this ball will bounce. Correspondingly, no action and no momentum. All that is going on is a little bit of Pitching Pennies just to keep the rust from overwhelming everything. This game is simply rearranging the furniture on the deck of the Titanic.

What happens when the States and Municipalities tank? Will that brighten the lookout? What about when Insurance companies start wiggly woobling? I do not even see a bright light in a dark tunnel that may be a ray of hope or a Diesel locomotive. I sure hope I am wrong.

[Kathryn]

I think it will be a while before the economy improves. The stock market is up, but that's not an indication that the economy is improving - it's just an indication that people think the economy is improving. With major companies still announcing layoffs and store/plant/dealership closings, there are more ripple effects coming. Another big market correction is on its way.

After 15 years in the chemical industry, I left Dow Chemical because I knew the chemical industry was heading way down. I thought oil refining would be a much safer bet. I've been with Shell for a year and a half. They been cutting project budgets and about a month ago they announced that layoffs were coming. The actual cuts were announced this past Wednesday and I was one of the lucky ones. Again, the ripple effect is coming.

I think the bottom will be later this year with the recovery beginning in 2010 at the earliest.

[palmmermaid]

I work for a software company that has a mortgage servicing package. Our business has increased since the crisis hit. What has happened is that the origination side work has dried up but the default area has really grown. Other areas of growth are the loan modification areas and the ELOC/HELOC areas. So when things happen in the mortgage industry, our pendulum justs shifts to the area.

We are also involved in the mergers and acquisitions for our clients.

I agree that the bottom will come this year and the recovery next year. But the recovery will take a few years. And maybe this entire mess will results in the emergence of the middle class again. It basically disappeared during the boom. The gap between the haves and have-nots was growing. Maybe now there will be a new middle class.

I think people are also having to readjust their way of thinking. I think they are staying at home and learning to enjoy the things that really matter.

[Jeff Searle]

NO!! It pretty much sucks still. And it most likely will stay the same well into 2010. I'm still waiting for my stimulus check too!

Jeff

[Urban Rainforest]

NO!! It pretty much sucks still. And it most likely will stay the same well into 2010. I'm still waiting for my stimulus check too!

Jeff

I agree with Jeff. This economy sucks bigtime!!! It's not improving It's imploding . All the numbers the media throws around are skewed. If you count the number of self imployed people realtors, tradesmen computer techs etc. that have had there incomes drastically cut and people that have just given up looking for a job the true unemployment rate would be well into the teens. As far as waiting for your stimulis check don't give up... They started talking about stimulis #3 today . More pork , Yummy I agree that it will be at least 2010 before we turn the corner but watch out for hyperinflation and massive taxes .

Stevo

[Cycadcenter]

The light at the end of the tunnel is realy just a big freight train coming.

Bruce

[yachtingone]

I'm buying stocks now! If everybody selling i am buying, if everybody is buying I'm selling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Buy low sell high. It's the best time ever to buy stocks when they are at there lowest . Is anybody else buying stocks well there low or are you waiting for them to get expensive again ? Randy

[bubba]

Yachting, Little day penny pitching trading is OK. Wall Street greed killed the Golden Goose. No true economic traction in our economy from penny pitching day trading, even if you think you are personally killing a bear. Contrary of the Contrarians.

[yachtingone]

Bubba I was quoting Baron Rothchild. He made a fortune with buy low sell high! To be honest I haven't a clue how to day trade or any thing like that. I did just switch my 401k from minimum contribution to $6.00 + my bosses required contribution. I think it's time. Who knows for sure when to do that? I only hope I'm right. Randy

[bubba]

Yachting, I hope you are right. Not only am I concerned about Wall Street's corrupt role played in this problematic economic conundrum but the attempt to create jobs through the generation of new govenmental buracracies is quite scary.

I just do not see it working. Everytime the government gets it's hands on something, I have yet to see good things happen. As a result of this, I think we are looking at a contracted situation similar to that experienced by Japan over the last several decades.

Accordingly, I choose to keep that which I have under my own control. I have no trust in Wall Street.

[rozpalm]

Bubba, I am with you. I trade this market but there is no way I am long. The stock market has been overpriced for years and where we are now is pretty much fair value or even slightly over priced. There is nothing on the horizon that says we are out of the woods, other then some government spending that will have the same effect that a Hurricane rebuilding has on us here. That is, businesses get busy, no one hires too many employees though since they know that the good times are temporary. Of course, prices go up and a few people get wealthy, but in the end once the rebuilding is done, everything goes back to where it was before the rebuilding boom. I guess business people are smarter then government and don't grow in size just because of an economic windfall.

I have stayed in mostly cash since Nov. 2007 and I can't tell you how many times my broker has called me and asked me what am I going to do with my dead money. Even in 2008 when everything was falling he calls me up and chides me about not taking advantage of the market. Finally in March 2009 I had enough and told him that my staying in cash has me 100% ahead of anyone that stayed invested in the market in 2008. He could do nothing but agree. Of course that didn't stop him from trying to sell me some stupid gambling type investment (basically betting on the market movement in 2yts) that Citigroup capital markets cooked up.

Right now I think a palm tree is a better long term investment then a stock.

[plamfrong]

As I read the signs around here, it seems like it bottomed out a few months ago and has been more or less flat since. But that's just my local perception from this corner of the country. Personally I've been fortunate - I got hired on with an organic produce company in April. We seem to be doing pretty well and have hired several more people since me. I guess there are a lot of people out there for whom eating organic produce isn't discretionary spending.

[palmmermaid]

An organic produce company! Wow, that's great. Keep that organic produce coming. I think people are very concerned about their food and that organic produce will continue to rise in popularity. We used to spend between 25-30% of our budget on food. Now we spend 15%. It seems we would rather have a new plasma screen tv than eat well. I am glad to see there are some changes in the food area.

And good luck with the job.

[Eric in Orlando]

But people are still spending money/credit. Several weeks ago my dad came and visited and all 4 Disney parks were jam packed and people spending money hand over fist. The Typhoon Lagoon water park was also very crowded.

Then 2 weeks ago I went to sea World to ride the new Manta roller coaster. I got there at 9am when it opened and it was quiet until about 11 then it got very crowded.

I go to Ikea and the store is full with huge lines of people buying cart fulls of stuff.

[PalmGuyWC]

It's hard to express my feelings without sounding political, but......our economy is in a downward sprial and it's getting worse, and it's going to get a lot worse. The goverment is printing money like it's going out of style with nothing to back it up. This can only lead to rampant inflation and huge tax increases. The adminestration is doing exactly opposite of what should be done. We can't spend our way out of the worse recession (soon to become a depression) since the 30's. Don't count on 2010 for a turn around. This could go on for the rest of our lives......and that means you young people too.

I'm not only scared, I'm terrified at the direction we are going.

Dick

[Kris]

Well Said Dick !

I fully agree whatever you have said above,the condition is the same here in India.This month we have our interim budget too,hearing which even our stocks which was trying to stand-up started to take a downward movement.

But people are spending heavily,but bussiness magazines are stating that their is no demand for any finished products like cars,T.V,Refrigrators,washing machines & other consumer durables,and their factories are cutting down staff & their working hours.

But past 5 years i have seen more new Mercedes,BMW's & Audi's in my city.And Suv's of the above companies hardly give any mileage but people travelling in it are frequently visiting the petrol stations & the cost of petrol was increased in recent budget too.

News report indicate that the economy is not growing but people are spending heavily,and useage of credit cards are a common feature.people are living in expensive apartments aquired by long term loans but their jobs are not permenent though..

People are spending without any planning or long term savings...

Kris.

[Tilto]

I agree,the solutions that are being proposed will not work.He did inherit the worst financial crisis since the 1930's from the moron but the "solutions" will ineveitably make us even poorer.I guess the choices are not too good right now.

It's hard to express my feelings without sounding political, but......our economy is in a downward sprial and it's getting worse, and it's going to get a lot worse. The goverment is printing money like it's going out of style with nothing to back it up. This can only lead to rampant inflation and huge tax increases. The adminestration is doing exactly opposite of what should be done. We can't spend our way out of the worse recession (soon to become a depression) since the 30's. Don't count on 2010 for a turn around. This could go on for the rest of our lives......and that means you young people too.

I'm not only scared, I'm terrified at the direction we are going.

Dick

[Kathryn]

An older friend of mine was in a perfect situation but made some bad decisions recently. His house was paid for. He was semi-retired, just working part time as he wanted to make a few extra dollars. He decided to take out a $150k mortgage to pay for some home improvements and do some traveling. He planned to work twice as many hours to make the mortgage payments. Then the economy went bad and he was out of work. He is probably a few months away from losing his home.

[Jeff Searle]

In the last month or so, it seems like a trickle MORE of business has been coming through. And actually, a fair amount of sales involving rare and unusual palms, either to collectors, or higher end landscape jobs. And summer time is always the slowest period of the year for us.

Jeff

[www.dadluvsu.com]

Good to hear Jeff. I have a feeling if everyone rallied about how good times are, times would become good again!

[rozpalm]

Well Said Dick !

I fully agree whatever you have said above,the condition is the same here in India.This month we have our interim budget too,hearing which even our stocks which was trying to stand-up started to take a downward movement.

But people are spending heavily,but bussiness magazines are stating that their is no demand for any finished products like cars,T.V,Refrigrators,washing machines & other consumer durables,and their factories are cutting down staff & their working hours.

But past 5 years i have seen more new Mercedes,BMW's & Audi's in my city.And Suv's of the above companies hardly give any mileage but people travelling in it are frequently visiting the petrol stations & the cost of petrol was increased in recent budget too.

News report indicate that the economy is not growing but people are spending heavily,and useage of credit cards are a common feature.people are living in expensive apartments aquired by long term loans but their jobs are not permenent though..

People are spending without any planning or long term savings...

Kris.

kris: Not that this is a good thing but it sounds like India has adopted the American style consumerism.

Jeff: Glad to hear that things are looking somewhat better. Larry has told me that he is seeing less and less cool stuff being offered/grown by the guys that grow the really cool rare stuff. He says that many of these growers just want to sell what they have and have no intention of growing new stuff. I am still buying lots of stuff for my garden and keeping larry busy a couple days a month.

[palmmermaid]

Good to hear Jeff. I have a feeling if everyone rallied about how good times are, times would become good again!

Bill,

Well said! I think negative feelings make negative things happen. Instead of constantly talking about how bad things are, why not focus on the good things happening. Yes, times are hard. But being morose about it isn't the answer. Making do with what you have is a good place to start the recovery. Living within your means is another. I know there are jobs out there but many white collar workers aren't willing to take them. If I was out of work and needed money to feed and house my family, I would take any job or jobs. I've worked 2 jobs to make ends meet. I would do so again if it was necessary. Whatever the work.

Kathryn,

It is never a good idea to mortgage your paid for home. Never. That should be sacred. Sell everything in it if necessary but don't mortgage the home.

[www.dadluvsu.com]

Saw a bumper sticker on a brand new convertible Rolls in Boca recently... It said "I REFUSE to participate in a recession."

Bumper stickers on Rolls'... This town is sick.