February 2009 Weather Thread

[_Keith]

It is a normal start to February here in Louisiana. Mid to upper 30s for lows, and moving into the low 70s for highs. Most years, winter is just about over by mid February.

Post your February weather here.

[happ]

Still quite dry here but models are showing several disturbances moving into California later this week. February is normally a wet month w/ mild temps. The stratosphere [layer of air above the troposphere] has been experiencing quite warm temperatures & conceivably could shift cool air southward this month. Let's hope it misses everybody

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Temperatures on the cool side in South Fla., but the region is basically devoid of rain. Last chance for a frost Wednesday morning this week, but probably we'l;l only get to 40F.

Paul

[KMartin]

A project I am working on called UJEAS tries to see what the month will be like. What extremes etc. We have an interesting month, here is UJEAS Feb.

Graphics are here: http://www.socalweather.org/UJEAS/2009/2/ujeasfeb09.html

February 2009 will be directly opposite of January 2009.

Around February 7th the flow will be from the North-Northwest out of the Pacific Ocean into the Southwestern USA. This type of flow is for colder storms with lower snow levels. Sometimes these storms can be moisture starved into the Southwestern states but the track of these look to be over the water more so than land like in January so will keep that in the forecast. From there the storm track goes Northeast through the Central United States and into the Great Lakes region.

Between the 7th and the 14th we may be entering a wetter pattern in the Southern California region as a low drops out of this flow and may park off the Western Coast. These can produce above normal rain for the area if placed in the right spot.

Around the 14th, a ridge builds stronger over the Florida area. This sustains the storm pattern in bringing the North-Northwest flow storms into the Southwestern USA and then Northeast through the Northeastern USA.

Between then and the 21st, the flow across the Western Coast finally turns Southwest ahead of a low approaching the area so still more rain in the window.

This flow seems to go right into the through the rest of the month.

Overall Thoughts: A rare month it would seem. Something the Southwestern USA hasn't seen in quite some time. Although the first couple weeks in the USA will be West Coast North-Northwest flow to Northeast flow across the Central USA from a ridge in the Southeastern USA or Atlantic, we will have a good chance of above average rain this month in the Southwestern States.

As far as extreme cold storms, we will see a North flow into the Western USA for 1/2 of the month, transforming to more of a warmer flow for the average of the last half. The ensembles of the EC do show arctic air in the UJEAS time window however UJEAS is not as strong with it. I've opted to leave this below December 2008's cold pattern so we aren't looking at a major cold like that month across the Western. Never-The-Less it will be below average in temperatures both highs and lows. Looking pretty good.

The Southeastern USA looks pretty dry actually. The pattern this month is also good for severe weather and tornadoes through the Central USA into the Ohio River Valley as stronger storms come out of the Western USA.

SCWXA - Socalweather.Org

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

A project I am working on called UJEAS tries to see what the month will be like. What extremes etc. We have an interesting month, here is UJEAS Feb.

Graphics are here: http://www.socalweather.org/UJEAS/2009/2/ujeasfeb09.html

February 2009 will be directly opposite of January 2009.

Around February 7th the flow will be from the North-Northwest out of the Pacific Ocean into the Southwestern USA. This type of flow is for colder storms with lower snow levels. Sometimes these storms can be moisture starved into the Southwestern states but the track of these look to be over the water more so than land like in January so will keep that in the forecast. From there the storm track goes Northeast through the Central United States and into the Great Lakes region.

Between the 7th and the 14th we may be entering a wetter pattern in the Southern California region as a low drops out of this flow and may park off the Western Coast. These can produce above normal rain for the area if placed in the right spot.

Around the 14th, a ridge builds stronger over the Florida area. This sustains the storm pattern in bringing the North-Northwest flow storms into the Southwestern USA and then Northeast through the Northeastern USA.

Between then and the 21st, the flow across the Western Coast finally turns Southwest ahead of a low approaching the area so still more rain in the window.

This flow seems to go right into the through the rest of the month.

Overall Thoughts: A rare month it would seem. Something the Southwestern USA hasn't seen in quite some time. Although the first couple weeks in the USA will be West Coast North-Northwest flow to Northeast flow across the Central USA from a ridge in the Southeastern USA or Atlantic, we will have a good chance of above average rain this month in the Southwestern States.

As far as extreme cold storms, we will see a North flow into the Western USA for 1/2 of the month, transforming to more of a warmer flow for the average of the last half. The ensembles of the EC do show arctic air in the UJEAS time window however UJEAS is not as strong with it. I've opted to leave this below December 2008's cold pattern so we aren't looking at a major cold like that month across the Western. Never-The-Less it will be below average in temperatures both highs and lows. Looking pretty good.

The Southeastern USA looks pretty dry actually. The pattern this month is also good for severe weather and tornadoes through the Central USA into the Ohio River Valley as stronger storms come out of the Western USA.

SCWXA - Socalweather.Org

Hi, Kevin!

Thanks for the super update on the weather! Great information, and "yes" it's very dry here in southern Florida. We've got 4+ months till the rainy season, so I don't think we'll be too happy here with the overall brownness of the landscape. Fire danger in SE USA should be elevated too, I'd venture to say.

Thanks, again, Kevin!

Paul

[PalmGuyWC]

Kevin,

Thanks for the update. It sounds like a mixed bag for Feb., but we need the rain. I'm holding off watering as we may get the rain later in the week. With an off shore flow, our daytime temps. in N. Calif. have been spring-like most of Jan, but with no cloud cover the nights have been chilly, around the low 30's. The days have been in the upper 60's to the low 70's, about the warmest Jan. I can remember in recent years.

Dick

[happ]

Thanks for your thorough forecast, Kevin I was going to post the Upper Jet Extended Analog System from your site yesterday. The prospects of a wet February are exciting & could save the state from mandatory water restriction. January was nearly 5 degrees above normal & very little rainfall. It would be great to have warm & wet conditions this month but cold & wet looks more likely & that's OK too.

[amazondk]

Here on the southern side of the equator the prospect for the month is a continuation of the wet month of January. I heard yesterday that Manaus had 390 mms of rain in January. The averge for the month is 274 mm. The months of February through April are the wettest months of the year nomally so the prospects are for continued high moisture levels. The temperatures have been moderate many days remaing under 30 C and the nights as always reach lows of around 23 C.

dk

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

That was exactly the weather I experienced in Panama a couple of weeks ago...Boy were things growing fast!

Thanks for the weather update, Don.

Pauk

[Neofolis]

After a milder second half of January, Februrary has seen a return to the misery of the beginning of January and late December. This morning the temperature dipped to -8.8°C/16.2°F, after a forecast low of -1°C/30°F and to compound matters we have had our first proper snowfall for many years over the past two days.

[simona]

We have a strange winter going on, with high temps and no precipitations :

The lack of rainfall is really worrying.

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Mid 30's (1-3 degrees C.) expected in Miami area by Thursday morning!! Absolutely ri-dic-u-lous!!!! "Cover up" are the buzz words for Wednesday evening, I reckon! Ugghhh!

Pablito

[_Keith]

Just noted out forecast went down to 30 tomorrow night, 40 the next night, then spring comes back again.

I did go look at the Tallahassee forecast and was shocked to see 24 tomorrow night, and then 18 the night after. Man, those poor guys are in cold sink for sure.

[FRITO]

cold here, and Yes Keith, the airport is official reading for the area and sits low and cold outside the city.

the elevation here has to do with temps like it does in Cali. and even down In Lake Placid where Walt reports from on the Ridge.

im 4-5 degreees warmer than the airport on any given winter night and im only about 2 miles away. there are spots in town too that are 4-5 degrees warmer than me as well.

if airport say 18 I figure 23 as a low. (has worked the last 3 years)

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Just noted out forecast went down to 30 tomorrow night, 40 the next night, then spring comes back again.

I did go look at the Tallahassee forecast and was shocked to see 24 tomorrow night, and then 18 the night after. Man, those poor guys are in cold sink for sure.

Those North Florida people are quite upset now, you're so right, Keith. I think the browning (and falling of leaves) will commence very soon, I'd venture to say! I wonder how Kyle's Gainesville foxtail palm looks now?

Paul

[amazondk]

Here at 3.5 degrees south latitude the rain just keeps coming. I would not be surprised if we pass the 400 mm mark for february. At least there is carnaval rain or no rain.

dk

[happ]

Appears that "mother earth" is quite active world-wide. Australia is experiencing climatic on-going heat in the south & flooding in the north. Europe recorded more snow this winter than ever. Freeze in Florida.

But there is glee over the fact that it is raining exactly when we need it most Typical of this winter\ La Nina produces long periods of drought. We count every winter storm & often on one hand! Measure snow levels in the Sierra for water content & wring hands. Polar jet occasionally undercuts dominate ridge & taps available moisture [being at the right place\ right time]. Strangely most rainfall this winter has been in SoCal while NorCal stays dry [similar to last winter].

December 2008

Aver Max: 65.7F Norm: 70F\ 21.1C

Aver Min: 49.7 Norm: 50F\ 10C

Rain: 3.31

January 2009

Aver Max: 74.3 Norm: 69F\ 20.5C

Aver Min: 54.8 Norm: 51F\ 10.5C

Rain: 0.83

[Tyrone]

The high humidity dewpoints around 20C have ended and now the dry has kicked in. It's 31C at 7.55pm with a dewpoint of 2.7C. This is much like Melbourne has been getting this year. We're expecting 40C on Thursday and dry until a cooler humid change on Friday. I hope we don't get any bushfires.

Best regards

Tyrone

[_Keith]

Yesterday and Today we have enjoyed most magnificent spring weather.

[Neofolis]

Still cold here.

[_Keith]

We are only a couple of weeks from our average last frost date, and with this 10 day forecast, I think it is safe to assume spring is here.

Tonight

Feb 08Mostly Cloudy58°10 %Mon

Feb 09Mostly Cloudy / Wind77°/62°10 %Tue

Feb 10Isolated T-Storms78°/63°30 %Wed

Feb 11Scattered T-Storms71°/47°40 %Thu

Feb 12Partly Cloudy69°/52°10 %Fri

Feb 13Isolated T-Storms74°/59°30 %Sat

Feb 14Mostly Sunny71°/48°10 %Sun

Feb 15Showers68°/51°60 %Mon

Feb 16Scattered Showers68°/44°40 %Tue

Feb 17Sunny65°/46°0 %

Now, there is always that chance of a late spring freeze here, but it they are few and far between.

[FRITO]

im hoping the same thing Keith. Pollen count is High here or so the forcast says. started working in the garden yesterday.

[Exotic Life]

Raining at the moment, the forecast for the next few days sometimes sunny, sometimes cloudy, sometimes raining. Temperatures by day 4-7C and during the nights 1-4C. In the end of the week the forecast is some light frost, but that is for the end of the week and before we are there the forecast can has been changed for 10 times. Ok, i hope so!

Robbin

[_Keith]

im hoping the same thing Keith. Pollen count is High here or so the forcast says. started working in the garden yesterday.

Good news Luke. That little minor dip that was supposed to hit tonight has disappeared from the forecast. All days this week now predicted to be 72+ and no nights below 48.

[FRITO]

good to hear. looks the same over this way until next week as the long range forcast models are predicting normal weather into next week

High /Low (°F) /Precip. %

Tonight

Feb 10 Mostly Cloudy 52° 10 %

Wed

Feb 11 Cloudy 73°/53° 10 %

Thu

Feb 12 Partly Cloudy 76°/47° 10 %

Fri

Feb 13 T-Showers 71°/53° 40 %

Sat

Feb 14 Scattered T-Storms 74°/48° 40 %

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

That was exactly the weather I experienced in Panama a couple of weeks ago...Boy were things growing fast!

Thanks for the weather update, Don.

Paul

Finally a normal So Fla. forecast:

80's F. day; upper 60's noche.

I CAN live with that (with just a sweater on, perhaps in the misty morn!!)

Paul

[amazondk]

The Amazonian winter rains keep coming. Thursday was mostly clear with little rain scattered about. But, the day before the skies opened up. Friday looks like the rain will be around town and the temperatures on the cool side.

[Daryl]

Pouring with rain here. 120mm ~5" since last night. Tonight is forecast to be torrential.

Daryl

[amazondk]

Daryl,

That is a lot of rain. Australia has been the news in Brazil quite often lately with weather and fire related stories. There has been a lot of flooding in the southern part of Brazil this season as well.

dk

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

We in South Florida are wishing that we had even 1/2 inch of rain! Hasn't rained here worth a damn for three months. Everything is looking a little "toasty" now, especially after February's spotty frosts! Not too pretty! I guess our posts will be similar though, in June-July (I'm hoping so anyway!)

Cheers!

Paul

[amazondk]

Here is a profile of our February so far. It is in Portuguese, but I think it should be easy to understand. The monthly average is around 300 mm of rain. It looks like we will hit that. It is hard to keep the car clean. The new mayor is ripping up the streets to fix the pot holes which had become a disaster in the city and it is hard not to get splashed with mud. The previous administration really let the streets go and in some place holes the size of cars were appearing. But, I guess that is part of life south of the Rio Grande.

[Exotic Life]

hmmm that are sometimes our summer tempetures

Robbin

[amazondk]

It seems like the February weather thread sort of got buried under all the local interest weather. So, I decided to move it up to the top. It is nice to have a global perspective on weather as well. Here on the southern side of the equator the winter rains continue. So far we have had 304 mms of rain above the monthly average rainfall for February of 288 mms. Since the forecast is for continued rain through the weekend, with some periods of heavy rain we may close out the month close to 400 mm again. It has been a cool rainy Fat Tuesday of Carnaval with the temperature at 1 PM of only 22 C. The party goes on with or without the rain though.

dk

[happ]

I always look forward to your reports & occasional photo, Don our equatorial friend

With 2 rain seasons each year, you are guaranteed abundant moisture. Do you experience droughts much?

February has been a good month w/ above normal rainfall statewide. Last year was like this up until late February when La Nina conditions abruptly ended the rain season [hope we don't repeat it].

Los Angeles: 3.57"\ 585mm

Since July 1: 8.57\ normal: 10.15

San Diego: 2.63"\ 430mm

Since July 1: 8.76\ normal: 7.07

San Francisco: 6.25"\ 1024mm

Since July 1: 12.06\ normal: 14.52

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Here is a profile of our February so far. It is in Portuguese, but I think it should be easy to understand. The monthly average is around 300 mm of rain. It looks like we will hit that. It is hard to keep the car clean. The new mayor is ripping up the streets to fix the pot holes which had become a disaster in the city and it is hard not to get splashed with mud. The previous administration really let the streets go and in some place holes the size of cars were appearing. But, I guess that is part of life south of the Rio Grande.

I feel so ignorant not speaking Portuguese as I miss the colourful conversations that don't translate wel into English. I'd imagine that at least 1/3 of Americans are now fairly fluent in Portugeuse, but certainly that's still less than the 2/3 of Americans very fluent in Spanish! I can only TRY to learn the language as rapidly as is possible!

Paul

[amazondk]

Happ,

This Brazilian site I have been looking at for weather has a pretty good picture of our climate here. The months are on the left side. As you can see the driest months are June through October, with the driest ones normally August and September. This is when the highest temperatures are as well since the rain is what brings the temperature down. I used to think it was hot here, but I am used to the weather now and I find it is just fine.

Paul,

You could always come down and practice Portuguese in Amazonia. It is only a 3 hour flight from Panama.

dk

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Happ,

This Brazilian site I have been looking at for weather has a pretty good picture of our climate here. The months are on the left side. As you can see the driest months are June through October, with the driest ones normally August and September. This is when the highest temperatures are as well since the rain is what brings the temperature down. I used to think it was hot here, but I am used to the weather now and I find it is just fine.

Paul,

You could always come down and practice Portuguese in Amazonia. It is only a 3 hour flight from Panama.

dk

That's an excellent idea, Don!

Paul

[amazondk]

Paul,

I´ll take you out to paddle around in a wooden canoe in the flooded forest and talk to the river dolphins. That is something you would not find in Panama.

dk

[_Keith]

Paul,

I´ll take you out to paddle around in a wooden canoe in the flooded forest and talk to the river dolphins. That is something you would not find in Panama.

dk

Dangit Don. Stop that stuff. I priced tickets to Manaus. Can't afford it right now, so quit rubbing in that you live in paradise.

[amazondk]

Keith,

It sure has been raining a lot in paradise lately. And, driving around town the crazy traffic is not the best way to enjoy paradise. But, you have to do what you have to so you can pay the bills. At least Saturday and Sunday I will spend by the river planting things. By the way when you do find a way to get down south the best, that is cheapest times of the year are March through May, and September through November. The highest water part is now and the dry season the later. There are basically three options to get here from the States, TAM from Miami, Delta via ATL, and Copa from Miami or connecting with Continental via Houston to Panama. The low season fares normally run around 700 USD RT from Miami.

dk