Floridians....Heads Up

[SunnyFl 10]

It's gonna be bad. This is from NWS:

...Don’t Put The Winter Coats Away Yet!!!...

Once again a deep trough is going to setup in the upper levels across the eastern United States bringing another round of freezing temperatures to the Florida peninsula. Temperatures are expected to drop 15 to as much as 25 degrees below normal at night and about 10 to 15 degrees below normal during the day. At this time it appears that temperatures should remain above the record cold levels from some winters in the past.

"At this time it appears that" doesn't sound very good

Here's the ugly picture:

[bubba 1,896]

Sunny,NWS is reporting this one could be a record breaker. I certainly hope not. That picture is scary!

[Tampa Scott 526]

I am going to say that my low will be 26f Thursday morning. I am over this winter. I still walk around my yard and am shocked at the damage I see from the last freeze and frost.

[spockvr6 28]

I am going to say that my low will be 26f Thursday morning. I am over this winter. I still walk around my yard and am shocked at the damage I see from the last freeze and frost.

Scott-

If this pans out as bad as NWS says, I think we will all be in the same boat. Its supposed to be windy, so microclimates will be greatly reduced.

(Un)Fortunately for me, I will be out of town for this whoel cold event, so Ill have to watch it unfold remotely through all your guys/gals reports!

[spockvr6 28]

Heres the ugly picture from NWS for Wed night....all that blue is 20's.

[spockvr6 28]

[Tampa Scott 526]

I am going to say that my low will be 26f Thursday morning. I am over this winter. I still walk around my yard and am shocked at the damage I see from the last freeze and frost.

Scott-

If this pans out as bad as NWS says, I think we will all be in the same boat. Its supposed to be windy, so microclimates will be greatly reduced.

(Un)Fortunately for me, I will be out of town for this whoel cold event, so Ill have to watch it unfold remotely through all your guys/gals reports!

Larry, When I am finished with my yard/palm redo plan I will not worry about these freeze events again. Better times are ahead. Scott

[gsn 22]

Winter this year in central Florida... My european fan palm, pindos, mules, wild date palm, sabals,saw palemtos, and even queens are LOVING it!

Everything else NOT so much! Scott I hear ya!!!

Enough already!!! And this isn't even the BIG one!

Edited February 3, 2009 by gsn

[bubba 1,896]

Larry, I know it is going to get cold but I do not understand the map.It reflects a location North of us at 39F and WPB at 34F.

Please remember this.NWS has potential legal liability for inaccurate forecasts.While we know it will get cold,I can assure you that NWS is intentionally very conservative in it's forecasting in times of potential freeze.Accordingly, one can expect them to predict the lowest possible temperatures and if it so happens that it is warmer than predicted ,so be it.No farmers out in the Glades ready to sue because NWS predicted 45F when it turned out to be 25F.

It does look like the coldest of the year and it is February!

[spockvr6 28]

Larry, I know it is going to get cold but I do not understand the map.It reflects a location North of us at 39F and WPB at 34F.

That 39F is out in the Atlantic!

Im not sure why they include temps not on land, but they have quite a number of "point" temperature forecasts that are actually offshore quite a bit. You can see that its still forecast in the 50's offshore off Miami, etc.

[jasons 4]

The forecast is not looking good for Wednesday night. Will be similar to the last event but the difference will be drier air. Therefore, temps may be a tad lower than last time. Probably not what you want to hear...

I've never heard of the NWS being legally liable for their forecasts though. Remember, they are not the only ones that issue a forecast. A good lawyer would argue that one would have to sue the NWS plus every single private weather outlet (TV stations, Radio Stations, Newspapers, The Weather Channel, Accuweather, WxUnderground, Intellicast, etc.) with the forecast plus every website in the world that displays model output data plus every blog that discusses weather plus every firm/university/gov't agency that produces the model data, and so on. The list is endless and it would set a legal precedent for endless lawsuits.

In other words, one cannot legally assess liability on any one party for a supposed 'missed forecast' and any such case would be tossed immediately.

Finally, the NWS does not finagle their forecast numbers due to potential lawsuits.

Edited February 3, 2009 by jasons

[epicure3 95]

Good luck suing the Government anyway.

[jasons 4]

Brown v. U.S., 790 F. 2d 199 (1st Cir., 1986) declared that the National Weather Service was not liable for a faulty weather forecast even though four fishermen died in a terrible storm after relying on the forecast. The court held that weather forecasting is exempt from liability because it is a discretionary function. In other words, it is work that involves interpretation and judgment. The Federal Tort Claims Act 28 U.S.C. §2671et. seq. entitles people to sue the federal government for personal injuries, but not when the government’s work or decision was discretionary.

[fastfeat 131]

Looking VERY ugly folks. I think I'll stay up in the (relatively) warm Antioch, CA area a few more days--at least it's only forecast to be 38F.

Best of luck. I hope I still recognize SoFla when I return this weekend...

[gsn 22]

Brown v. U.S., 790 F. 2d 199 (1st Cir., 1986) declared that the National Weather Service was not liable for a faulty weather forecast even though four fishermen died in a terrible storm after relying on the forecast. The court held that weather forecasting is exempt from liability because it is a discretionary function. In other words, it is work that involves interpretation and judgment. The Federal Tort Claims Act 28 U.S.C. §2671et. seq. entitles people to sue the federal government for personal injuries, but not when the government’s work or decision was discretionary.

A lawyer and a meterologist, quite the interesting combination!

[happ 140]

Those graphs are painful to look at for a very long time [a horror movie & we are the victims Jan. 2007

Hey, good luck guys [Florida is a palm paradise we all enjoy - hurts to see beauty blemished.

The anger is understandable if not misdirected.

Edited February 3, 2009 by happ

[rozpalm 39]

I sure hope my lake is able to kick in and give me the 2-3deg extra it did last time. Ground temp is warmer then last time, so here's hoping. Sure wish I had an SIS right now.

[bubba 1,896]

Jasons, Good research and I show my dated memory because the initial case found liability. Just read about the verdict numerous years ago and never followed the Appeal.I still maintain that NWS will go low rather than High in it's predictions.We shall see very soon in real time with no Appelate waste of time!

[bubba 1,896]

Larry, What is the prediction for Tarpon Springs and St. Pete?

[spockvr6 28]

Larry, What is the prediction for Tarpon Springs and St. Pete?

As of now-----

Tarpon Springs - 34F

St. Petersburg - 39F

St. Pete Beach - 40F

Edited February 3, 2009 by spockvr6

[PalmatierMeg 7,331]

12 o'clock news predicted 32F Thursday a.m. & 34F Friday a.m. for Cape Coral/Fort Myers. Thursday low will be "coldest of the winter" so far. Tomorrow after work I got to haul in pots & cover palms yet again. Have mercy!

[gsn 22]

And the bottom falls out of the NWS forecast for Titusville as of 4:00 PM. And yet ANOTHER 3 day/night event here!

Wed - 28F

Thurs-33F

Earlier this afternoon it was 31F, 37F, how low will go before tomorrow night?

Edited February 3, 2009 by gsn

[rozpalm 39]

My projected temps are one degree warmer now but I noticed my humidity is now below 50%. Yikes! Definite potential for frost now.

[jasons 4]

Re: NWS case law.

The NWS was found liable in only one case that I am aware of. They had an aviation product issued for VFR flight reqs. Well, the forecast later changed and required IFR. However, the forecast for some reason was not publicly released. There was an ensuing plane crash and the NWS got sued. The NWS was, in that case, found liable not because of their forecast - but because they had revised the forecast and not made it public. In terms of liability - that's a big difference. Rest assured, the NWS won't be making that mistake again. Now, this case was a long time ago when the NWS was solely responsible for providing aviation flight rules at public terminals. It was also pre-internet and the public availabilty of model data, etc. I don't know if the NWS is still solely responsible for publishing flight rules anymore but I can imagine with all the available sources of data out there now, such a case would probably be much harder to argue in today's world even if they were.

----------------

As far as the weather goes, I just don't see anything yet that would warrant raising the temps yet for this event. Still looks like a freeze across almost the entire inland peninsula Wed night except SE FL metro. Coastal locations like the islands & Pinellas should be OK but it will be close.

Edited February 3, 2009 by jasons

[phatmiata 2]

...........................When I am finished with my yard/palm redo plan I will not worry about these freeze events again. Better times are ahead. Scott

So what is the plan??? Installing heat lamps or something?

[Paul The Palm Doctor! 9]

I get this email about once a week since, unlike other weather blogs, there is usually some stuff for us west coasters. I got this today. Doesn't mention freeze but I thought I should post it nonetheless. This is from WeatherAmerica.

With any neutral to negatively tilted storm undergoing rapid deepening, a cold pool over Canada can be tapped and dislocated. This appears to be the case with the February 1 - 3 system, as the numerical models show a strong cAk vortex and aligned trough stretching from Quebec into Florida early in the new week. High winds may accompany the disturbance in its north and west quadrants, accenting chill factors and allowing for quick southward delivery of the Arctic values. Three of the forecast model choices (OpGFS, OpECMWF, GFS ensembles) support a far below normal surface temperature array as far south as the Florida Keys by February 4.

We Fla. folks owe a lot to Epi! Two weeks ahead of time, he alerted us of an impending incursion of Arctic air. I would not have known til one whole week later if not for his report!! I cannot stop the cold from arriving BUT I had a bunch of time to plan my palm survival strategy due in huge part to John!!

I applaud your watchfulness, Epi & am grateful to you for probably saving more than a few of my palms! Again, thanks, Epi! I owe you one when I see you!

Pablito

[gsn 22]

...........................When I am finished with my yard/palm redo plan I will not worry about these freeze events again. Better times are ahead. Scott

So what is the plan??? Installing heat lamps or something?

I wouldn't want to speak for Scott, but I don't think the PLAN has anything to do with protection.

It has to do with planting palms,that he doesn't have to worry about with temps in the mid 20's! He can ignore this temp watching, nail biting every winter!

And I for one am leaning in that direction also,even if it means more common palms,at least they will be green year round,instead of dead or severely brown, and freeze burned 50 percent of the time! Unfortunately we have to accept where we live,and the yearly/bi yearly freezes it brings!

Edited February 4, 2009 by gsn

[phatmiata 2]

Plant more oak trees!!!

[surgeon83 12]

I am going with the Scott plan as well. Then again, that's what I said before I moved here, and I have probably spent 10 hours protecting palms in the last two weeks .

Seriously though I dug up 12 palms so far, which are now stuffing my tiny house. Also spent 3 hours tonight getting everything else wrapped up for the next three nights.

A have a bunch of small potted Butias, canaries, washingtonias, and reclinata hybrids that I have been planting very sparingly so far, but they (and oak trees) will soon be allowed to dominate the landscape.

[SunnyFl 10]

Larry, What is the prediction for Tarpon Springs and St. Pete?

As of now-----

Tarpon Springs - 34F

St. Petersburg - 39F

St. Pete Beach - 40F

Larry, I checked our area (Lealman) on NWS and the forecast for Wednesday night has dropped to (shudder) 36. But.....

We are now under Freeze Watch - even St. Pete - for Wed night thru Thurs morning. They're hedging their bets, and I don't think they have good confidence in the predicted 36. I do think that the NWS will overstate a wx event if there is sufficient question about the outcome - simply because it's better to prepare for a threat that doesn't pan out, than to be unprepared for an event that does. True during Season, too.

[ruskinPalms 893]

I think that a lot of us have been thinking about replanting with more cold hardy palms - and it is probably the right thing to do. But, I will never give up trying those 10a and 10b beauties. I will be shooting for a composition of 75% zone 9 palms and 25% zone 10 palms in the future.

My forcast has been as low as 27 and 28 but has moved back up to about 31 to 32 for the next couple of nights per NWS. They honestly have done the best forcasting my neck of the woods so I don't pay much attention to the other guys. I guess the wind is supposed to stay up a little which has been good in the past for me - as long as it does not start turning NNE in the middle of the night. Even a due north wind has a hard time freezing me here advectively since it still crosses over a little of tampa bay and tampa for that matter (hey, all the heat from tampa has to be blown somewhere!). My advective freezes here have always come from the NNE so far. Even NE wind has a hard time freezing me here since it starts to pick up a lot of atlantic influence at that point. NNE is the killer for me. And, oh yeh, I am very susceptible to radiational freezes here apparently but that was the story of the last freeze, this one should be different. That being said, the wind can always calm and that means trouble.... This one might be the nail in the coffin for a lot of palms in my yard and in the area in general that might have made it through this winter. Oh well....It will be fun replanting in a month!

[ruskinPalms 893]

Just an interesting tid bit here. It is holding steady at 52.5F here right now at 11:40 pm at night while the Balm FAWN station is at 40F about 10 miles inland from me. Orlando and Tampa are in the low to mid 40s. Pinelllas is in the low to mid 50s. Brandon area is already showing some upper 30s! Since living here, I have seen areas not too much more inland freeze advectively with NW winds while I sit in the 50s. That being said, I live in a very rural area that gets easily nailed on those windless nights. The bay doesn't really help me on those nights, nor the pond in my backyard even.....I guess I should stop complaining and be glad for all the clear, clean air I have out here in the boonies!

[palmsOrl 2,031]

For me personally, it would take a freeze way worse than the one a couple weeks ago and the upcoming one to make me consider changing my landscape to more cold hardy plantings (think 1985 or 1989). I have two 15 foot carpies for example that sailed through unprotected, without a blemish. Looking at my yard full of tropicals you would hardly know we had a freeze, besides my pathetic Bismarck!

-Michael

[spockvr6 28]

Just an interesting tid bit here. It is holding steady at 52.5F here right now at 11:40 pm at night while the Balm FAWN station is at 40F about 10 miles inland from me. Orlando and Tampa are in the low to mid 40s. Pinelllas is in the low to mid 50s. Brandon area is already showing some upper 30s! Since living here, I have seen areas not too much more inland freeze advectively with NW winds while I sit in the 50s. That being said, I live in a very rural area that gets easily nailed on those windless nights. The bay doesn't really help me on those nights, nor the pond in my backyard even.....I guess I should stop complaining and be glad for all the clear, clean air I have out here in the boonies!

Yes Bill......I was a bit surprised when I looked at my readings this morning.....I was expecting something in the upper 30's/lower 40's even at this early hour, yet its 57F here and rising! What happened?!?!?!?!

I am not complaining, and maybe things will change in the next few hours, but surely this forecast was missed by a very large margin!?!?!??

Of course the next nights are still to come........

[spockvr6 28]

Larry, What is the prediction for Tarpon Springs and St. Pete?

As of now-----

Tarpon Springs - 34F

St. Petersburg - 39F

St. Pete Beach - 40F

Larry, I checked our area (Lealman) on NWS and the forecast for Wednesday night has dropped to (shudder) 36. But.....

We are now under Freeze Watch - even St. Pete - for Wed night thru Thurs morning. They're hedging their bets, and I don't think they have good confidence in the predicted 36. I do think that the NWS will overstate a wx event if there is sufficient question about the outcome - simply because it's better to prepare for a threat that doesn't pan out, than to be unprepared for an event that does. True during Season, too.

Sunny-

Yes...the St. Pete forecast quote above is 33701 (Albert Whitted), so seeing a bit different number for Lealman would be expected.

As of now, NWS has dropped Tarpon Spring to 33F down from the above mentioned 34F. Other forecasters arent so kind and weather.com even shows 29F!

[Tampa Scott 526]

...........................When I am finished with my yard/palm redo plan I will not worry about these freeze events again. Better times are ahead. Scott

So what is the plan??? Installing heat lamps or something?

I wouldn't want to speak for Scott, but I don't think the PLAN has anything to do with protection.

It has to do with planting palms,that he doesn't have to worry about with temps in the mid 20's! He can ignore this temp watching, nail biting every winter!

And I for one am leaning in that direction also,even if it means more common palms,at least they will be green year round,instead of dead or severely brown, and freeze burned 50 percent of the time! Unfortunately we have to accept where we live,and the yearly/bi yearly freezes it brings!

The plan is to rid the yard of the palms that just do not take the cold I receive here. What is so attractive about a rust color palm? Yes they will regrow and start looking good again, just to turn brown again.

[SunnyFl 10]

Sunny-

Yes...the St. Pete forecast quote above is 33701 (Albert Whitted), so seeing a bit different number for Lealman would be expected.

As of now, NWS has dropped Tarpon Spring to 33F down from the above mentioned 34F. Other forecasters arent so kind and weather.com even shows 29F!

Right - I had assumed the 39 was for Albert Whitted - what surprised me was how close Lealman's temps were to the airport, only 3F difference.

Well, I wish I had better news. The 36 predicted for Wed. night-Thurs morning is just wishful thinking at this point. They've changed the Freeze Watch to Warning. Here's the Forecast Discussion, read it and weep:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

339 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

...ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HARD FREEZES

EXPECTED ACROSS MOST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS IN

PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE

NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH

OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING

INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD

THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ON STRONG NW WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW

TEMPS TONIGHT TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NATURE

COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 20S IN NORMALLY COLDER CENTRAL INTERIOR

AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTH TEMPS WILL STILL

FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER

20S/AROUND 30. HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING

FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE AND LEE

WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE.

[SunnyFl 10]

Just an interesting tid bit here. It is holding steady at 52.5F here right now at 11:40 pm at night while the Balm FAWN station is at 40F about 10 miles inland from me. Orlando and Tampa are in the low to mid 40s. Pinelllas is in the low to mid 50s. Brandon area is already showing some upper 30s! Since living here, I have seen areas not too much more inland freeze advectively with NW winds while I sit in the 50s. That being said, I live in a very rural area that gets easily nailed on those windless nights. The bay doesn't really help me on those nights, nor the pond in my backyard even.....I guess I should stop complaining and be glad for all the clear, clean air I have out here in the boonies!

Yes Bill......I was a bit surprised when I looked at my readings this morning.....I was expecting something in the upper 30's/lower 40's even at this early hour, yet its 57F here and rising! What happened?!?!?!?!

Bill and Larry,

That was a nice surprise, wasn't it. I'd expected we'd be looking at the 40s this morning, but when we checked the temp this morning at around 6, it was 54, just 1 degree different from St. Pete/Clw Airport, so it's probably about right. Again, just a few degrees under AW Airport.

Don't we wish for another nice surprise tonight, but no such luck.

The freeze is bound to be a bad one for almost the entire state. Even S. FL, with the exception of areas immediately on the coast, is under Freeze Warning, so western Miami-Dade might not be much better than Pinellas, if at all. Hard freeze even around Lake Okechobee.

As for the Plan - I'm really torn on this one. There aren't many cold-tolerant palms I love anywhere near as much as my different dypsis, archontos and hyophorbe. And I really do NOT relish driving around here and missing the sight of the tall royals and coconuts, the foxies, adonidias and some of the old bottles and lutescens, well-grown and beautiful to look at.

It's not just my own plants I'd miss so much, but all the others in the gardens around here that make it look like a tropical oasis. If I wanted to look at junipers and pittosporum, I'd be living in Georgia.

Edited to add:

Glimmer of hope?? I re-checked Pinellas Park's forecast lows for tonight. Earlier, when I looked at it, the forecast low was 31. They updated the forecast at 6:53am, which was after I looked at it. Now, PP's forecast low is 33. Maybe we can dodge another bullet?

Edited February 4, 2009 by SunnyFl

[bubba 1,896]

NWS lists WPB at 31F. It seems to be warmer on the West coast for lows tommorow morning.They hedge by not including coastal.I think it is warmer in St. Pete and Tarpon than WPB!

[popper1 6]

Most areas seem about 10+ degrees above what was forecast for this morning, even well inland. It seems that the dew points are higher than predicted so the air did not cool as much. The dew points for tonight are predicted as low 11 in the Brandon area, and into the teens for Pinellas. I have never seen them that low.

Lets hope not.