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SubTropicRay

Cold air headed for Florida midweek

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SubTropicRay

I don't know what happened as the forecast was much warmer yesterday. Again, the two GFS models are not on the same page with the NAM model somewhat warmer than the MAV. Per the NWS GFS model, forecast lows for Wednesday morning January 21.

Tampa 33F

St. Petersburg 36F

Miami 44F

Orlando 32F

Ft. Lauderdale 42F

West Palm Beach 38F

Ft. Myers 36F

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Tampa Scott
Forecast lows for Wednesday morning January 21

Tampa 33

Miami 44

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Jimbean

accuweather: 38F

weatherunderground: 34F

weather.com: 37F

NWS: 35F

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gsn

Jimbeam,

How far south in Brevard are you, Indian River/Brevard county line (aka Vero Beach?) :lol:

For Titusville as of 12:30 PM 1/18/2009

NWS

Wed morning - 35F

Thursday morn- 35F

Weather.com

Wed morning - 31F

Thursday morn- 35F

Accuweather

Wed morning - 33F

Thursday morn- 36F

Edited by gsn

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SubTropicRay

Both GFS models are nearly identical with this cold snap. There seems less hope in escaping this one despite the sudden change by the models. This air mass is not as cold as the previous one overall but low pressure set to form off the Carolinas will drag the air further south than last time.

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falcon1988

wow not again i though it was to get warmer again and this air mass was to modified hmmm any how i check

the forecast of 1/18/09 at 13:30 . lows for Tuesday/Wednesday mornings keep checking things to change

there will be clouds on Tuesday nite which may help keep the temps up.

Tues Wed

weather.com 40 47

accu ( unaccu) 37 38

NOAA 43 44

wunder 41 43

Regards

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palmsOrl

The weather discussion for the area is predicting an advective event Tuesday night, and a radiational event for Wed night. Both nights are forcast to be 32F for Orlando. This really caught me off guard. I wonder if we're finally going to get a REAL freeze in this area, since it used to happen yearly and we haven't been below 31 since Jan. 03.

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SubTropicRay

This caught everyone off guard. On the other hand, I'm not surprised. As I mentioned in the other thread, these cold waves always come in 2's about a week apart. The second is usually the worst.

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spockvr6

Heres NWS discussion for Tampa area.....not looking exactly fantastic :mrlooney:

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT WITH 3+ HOURS OF

FREEZING TEMPS IS SHAPING UP FOR AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. TEMPS

MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS FROM

TAMPA BAY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS PGD EARLY WED MORNING. WILL ISSUE A

FREEZE WATCH FOR WED MORNING FROM PASCO NORTHWARD TO LEVY COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF WED...STRATO CU WILL SHIFT BACK OUT INTO THE

GULF...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN

THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT

IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIGHT OVER THE

PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD MEAN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL

COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO...IF NOT COLDER

THAN...THOSE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE POSITIVE FOR KEEPING

TEMPERATURES UP SOME IS THAT THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL HAVE SPENT 24

HOURS MODIFYING OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY. STILL...AS OF

THIS FORECAST HAVE DECIDED TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE ALL THE WAY

SOUTH INTO INTERIOR CHARLOTTE COUNTY...LEAVING ALL COUNTIES BUT LEE

AND PINELLAS WITH SOME THREAT FOR A FREEZE. A HARD FREEZE IS ALSO

POSSIBLE FOR THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS THE MEX

GUIDANCE FOR KBKV...BUT STILL HAVE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S THERE!

Edited by spockvr6

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SubTropicRay

Interesting link. You can click through the upcoming days and see wind speed and direction as well as nightime minimums and daytime maximums.

Graphical forecast for Florida

I hope they are covering the Sealing Wax Palms in SE Florida. The cold air seems more focused on the Florida east coast this time.

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Josh

I noticed that accuweather has Tampa at 57/29 tuesday and 56/24 wednesday.

Edited by Josh

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cfkingfish

I am surprised at the fact that no site has Venice at lower than 38F for any of the nights, where Palm beach is supposed to get cold and points south, possibly mid-30s. I hope I can hold off frost for this winter, I really want to eat my bananas! The cold seems to be bad north of here though.

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palmsOrl

24 for Tampa?? I seriously doubt it. That is strange since accuweather isn't showing doom and gloom for Orlando (30F Tues. and 29F Wed.) though that is still a solid freeze.

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SubTropicRay

Accuweather forecasters have been put on a Q.D.C. (Quit Doing Crack) program as of this year. Hopefully in the future, their forecasts will be believable. As of the latest GFS runs, Tampa stays above freezing on both nights by a few degrees.

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Jimbean
Jimbeam,

How far south in Brevard are you, Indian River/Brevard county line (aka Vero Beach?) :lol:

For Titusville as of 12:30 PM 1/18/2009

NWS

Wed morning - 35F

Thursday morn- 35F

Weather.com

Wed morning - 31F

Thursday morn- 35F

Accuweather

Wed morning - 33F

Thursday morn- 36F

I am in Rockledge, but I also have plants in Port St. John.

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Jimbean

My weather forecast has now dropped to around 30F. If it does get that cold, it will be the coldest lows we have had since 2001.

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tikitiki

who do you guys feel has been spot on the most over the years? I know Accu. is the worst of the group but who is the best?

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_Keith
who do you guys feel has been spot on the most over the years? I know Accu. is the worst of the group but who is the best?

In my area, weather.com has consistently beat them all, time and time again.

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DoomsDave

Well, all I can say is, been there done that, hope I don't have to do that soon, but best to all of you.

My Veitchia looks like total crap . . . . .

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spockvr6
Accuweather forecasters have been put on a Q.D.C. (Quit Doing Crack) program as of this year. Hopefully in the future, their forecasts will be believable. As of the latest GFS runs, Tampa stays above freezing on both nights by a few degrees.

Accuweather is all over the place sometimes.

As for now for 34689 for Tue/Wed nights...not the greatest forecast, but nothing catastrophic (which I define as lower than ~28F).

NWS - 37/38

Wunderground - 34/34

Weather.com - 33/34

Accuweather - 37/36

Just for yucks, and because I apparently like to punish myself, I checked one of the warmer Pinellas zipcodes (33701) and found the following---

NWS - 41/45

Wunderground - 40/40

Weather.com - 41/42

Accuweather - 40/42

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gsn
who do you guys feel has been spot on the most over the years? I know Accu. is the worst of the group but who is the best?

Short answer NONE of them have been spot on over the years.

I have never done the statisical analysis to see over the years which is actually right more than any of the others.

The problem is sometimes one gets it right for a certain event,the next time another one does, and so on, and so on. I don't see much consistancy in one being right way more than another. And sometimes NONE of them call the event correctly.

Of all the most popular sources I would have to say the NWS is the only one that isn't selling something, all the others,weather.com,accuweather,weatherunderground, all are commerical interests. The NWS is charged by mandate to protect/warn/inform the public of weather events and have no vested interest in scaring everyone to death. They have traditonally been the rescource that farmers,and other growers in the US turn to for weather information.

Does this make the NWS more accurate, probably not, but at least they are not hyping for veiwers. Not to say the mets at the NWS are immune to HYPE, as I don't think there is aweatherman on the planet that is immune! :lol:

The bottom line is weather forecast unfortunately are nothing more than educated guesses, as the weather can and does turn on a dime!

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gsn

Here is my updated forecast as of 10:30 PM 1/19

Compared to the forecast of less than 36 hours ago above.

NWS

Wed morning - 32F

Thursday morn- 31F

Weather.com

Wed morning - 29F

Thursday morn- 31F

Accuweather

Wed morning - 33F

Thursday morn- 32F

Wunderground

Wed morning - 31F

Thursday morn- 31F

The forecast changed,as it will probably change again tomorrow! After all, this event that is coming up, was NOT in the cards of any of the above sources 5 to 10 day long range forecasts. It just popped up out of nowhere according to them! :winkie:

Edited by gsn

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tikitiki

all Mets are out for shock and gloom. :unsure: you only have to go through one hurricane season to no that. Its as they want an event.

Does this make the NWS more accurate, probably not, but at least they are not hyping for veiwers. Not to say the mets at the NWS are immune to HYPE, as I don't think there is aweatherman on the planet that is immune! :lol:

The bottom line is weather forecast unfortunately are nothing more than educated guesses, as the weather can and does turn on a dime!

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Jimbean

this looks like it is going to hit the east coast harder than the west coast.

My forecast lows are 30/30

This is our typical once in every five year freeze

Edited by Jimbean

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_Keith

Should be a one night wonder, if it even happens. And right before spring. I bet your plants will not even notice.

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SubTropicRay

The blooming Mango trees are just going to love this.

Expected temps in South Florida

TABULAR FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

410 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

ROWS INCLUDE...

DAILY PREDOMINANT DAYTIME WEATHER 6AM-6PM

FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EARLY MORNING LOW/DAYTIME HIGH

PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NIGHTTIME 6PM-6AM/DAYTIME 6AM-6PM

- INDICATES TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO

MM INDICATES MISSING DATA

FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST

TODAY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON

JAN 20 JAN 21 JAN 22 JAN 23 JAN 24 JAN 25 JAN 26

...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

NAPLES

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/64 43/58 35/65 43/72 51/75 55/76 55/77

/10 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

EVERGLADES CITY

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/66 39/59 35/66 45/73 52/75 55/77 54/77

/10 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

FLAMINGO

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/70 45/60 39/66 52/72 58/74 60/75 61/75

/20 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/10 10/10 10/10

...SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

IMMOKALEE

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/65 35/58 30/67 41/74 47/76 52/77 53/77

/10 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

MOORE HAVEN

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/63 34/57 30/66 39/72 49/75 50/76 51/77

/10 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

LA BELLE

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/63 33/57 29/67 37/73 45/76 49/76 51/77

/10 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

BELLE GLADE

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/66 37/57 33/65 41/71 48/74 52/76 54/77

/10 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

WEST PALM BEACH

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/67 35/58 36/65 44/71 51/73 53/75 56/76

/10 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 20/20

FORT LAUDERDALE

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/71 40/60 41/67 49/72 57/74 58/75 60/76

/20 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 20/20

MIAMI

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/71 42/61 42/68 48/73 55/76 57/76 58/77

/20 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

MIAMI BEACH

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/70 46/60 45/68 54/71 57/71 61/71 61/71

/20 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 20/20

HOMESTEAD

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/71 41/60 39/68 47/74 54/76 56/76 58/77

/20 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

HOMESTEAD GENERAL

PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY

/72 40/61 35/68 47/74 54/76 56/77 57/77

/20 5/00 00/00 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10

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Jimbean

accuweather 34/36/42

Weather.com 31/32/37

weatherunderground 31/31/34

NWS 31/32/36

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gsn

Another prime example of missing the forecast was the actual front that came though last night.

To the best of my knowledge NONE of the weather sources predicted as of yesterday morning that this front would bring rain, they predicted very little rain/moisture and no severe weather with this front. They thought the moisture would disipate over the gulf,and that this would be a relatively DRY front.

They were very wrong, a squall line developed early and sooner than predicted, and even tornado warnings were issued early last night in some central areas of the state. There wasn't an accumulation of rain ,as the line of thunderstorms was moving at about 40 to 55 MPH. But where it rained it rained hard ,until the storm moved east and south! Even the the weathermen were totally surprised by this happening! :hmm:

Edited by gsn

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Jimbean

yeah, I was thinking of that last night.

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spockvr6

The way that cold air just spills right down the center of the state always amazes me. I believe this is due to the Lake Wales Ridge?

post-200-1232467744_thumb.jpg

post-200-1232467752_thumb.jpg

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FRITO

I dont think it will be that bad for you guys. what ever blows through up heres indicates what will blow through downn there and at what severity.

im still barely 9b (25.6) as for lows this winter. when our airport recorded 20 degrees on the same night a couple days ago.

forcast here is 24 tongiht and 27 tommorow night. Run a few tiki torches and fire in the yard. should keep anything from damaging.

goodluck

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PalmatierMeg

Lows keep getting lower here in Paradise. Now Weather.com has Thurs. low 35, Weatherunderground has 34. Maybe it's all doom & gloom but can't take the chance they are off 3 degrees too high rather than 3 degrees too low. In December weather guys predicted one night's low of 42 - ended up 39.

So far, my dear husband has brought in the tender potted plants, wrapped the A. concinna in foam carpet pad and a heating pad. Later we will wrap the 4' Licuala grandis - I'm thinking of wrapping it in one of my hooded jackets. It can survive a quick 31 or 32 but fronds burn & look like hell for the next 6-7 months. I'll invert a 5 gallon bucket over the P. ekmanii, same with small Dypsis in shade garden.

I'll be glad when the weekend warmup gets here. My plants are getting tired of the great indoors.

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www.dadluvsu.com

I brought in my large mapu (leaving out the lipstick palms :evil: ) and moved the trailer to the west side of the shadehouse... I have ficus hedge on the north and east sides, but the cold winter weather always comes from the west and northwest... Hopefully reduced wind will help the shadehouse retain a bit of the solar gain collected throughout the fairly cloudy day... My 15g Chambeyronia are going to be out in it all winter. Hope everyone's palms fare well tonight. :) I have a big white tarp that I can cover the whole shadehouse with, but I am not going to unpack it unless there is to be a freeze event. I think we will be fine this week!

DSC03744.jpg

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Eric in Orlando

It is supposed to be right around 31-33F in the metro area. So far the low has been 40F so it shouldn't be so bad. It could be worse, the record low for Orlando for tonight is 20F set back in 1977 and for Wed. night is 19F set in 1985, for Thurs. its 20F also set in 1985.

Hopefully we can get thru another month in good shape.

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palmsOrl

Looks like the numbers may have inched up just a tad for Orlando and east central Florida. From those maps it seems to show the worst of the cold hitting to the west. Because of this I do not think I am going to go "all out" and trim, tie-wrap, and cover all of my palms like I would if the forcast consensus was showing 20s for lows. I have done this every year over the last several years when they forcast a freeze just like this and it just ends up doing more harm (damage) than good when the freezes don't pan out. That said, I am going to put a dish heater on the crown of my newly in the ground 8 ft. Veitchia arecina.

-Michael

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junglegalfla

I just looked up my zip code 33704 in N.E. St. Pete

Wed/Thur Fri

Weather Underground 38/45/49

Weather.com 41/42/48

NWS 41/41/50

Accuweather 40/40/48

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gsn
I just looked up my zip code 33704 in N.E. St. Pete

Wed/Thur Fri

Weather Underground 38/45/49

Weather.com 41/42/48

NWS 41/41/50

Accuweather 40/40/48

Bren,

Nobody likes a bragger! :lol: just kidding! :) That is a better forecast than West Palm Beach at the moment.

Can I plant some of my more marginal palms at your house,then come visit them every other weekend, kinda like joint custody!

Has anyone else noticed that alot of the weather services are NOW calling for Wednesday night /Thursday morning , being colder than tonight? That will be a radiational event.

Good luck everyone!

Edited by gsn

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MattyB

Good luck ya'll. I hope you fair well.

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PalmatierMeg

Weatherunderground now says the following for central Cape Coral (where I live):

Wed. 7 a.m.: 36F 10 a.m.: 45F

Thurs 7 a.m.: 34F 10 a.m.:50F

Weather.com has these lows:

Wed: 37F

Thurs: 33F

Awfully close to freezing. But we have tented and spotlit the L. grandis.

What a mess. Enough already.

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