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SubTropicRay

Jan 10-14 looks cold in the southeast

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surgeon83

So I noticed. But then again. in mid December there was a point that they said the whole week of Christmas was going to be cold but we turned out to have only 2 nights in the forties followed by a week of 80s/60s. Then about 2 weeks ago they said there would be a front coming on 1/3, but doesn't look like that panned out. Well, if we do get mid-upper 40s next week it will suck but we can live. Maybe we'll get lucky and a high will come and warm us up to the 80s! We still have November to make up for, afterall.

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gsn

Ray,

I wasn't looking for chatter! :lol:

It could have stayed quiet until next December as far as I'm concerned! :winkie:

Is your prescription filled? :lol:

But I'll tell you one thing I am not going to have sleepless nights worrying about a long range forecast.

I might not sleep the night of the projected FREEZE ,but by then it will be much more concrete,and not somebodys guess 2 weeks away , designed to get me all neurotic, and paranoid about what might happen! :winkie::)

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palmsOrl

Well I'm not too worried, the forcast for well below average temps does not necessarily mean a freeze. Accuweather has had a few articles talking about the possibility of "epic cold" in mid January, but it's just way to far out to tell. I actually wouldn't mind some chilly weather for a change (40s/60s), it's January!

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SubTropicRay

Yeah I saw that on Accuweather too. Frank Strait, the southeast forecaster, was saying that August of 1983 was very hot across the southeast and that 18 months later, it got very cold (January 1985). He actually said that with August of 2007 being very warm, we could be due for very cold weather in January 2009 (again 18 months). Now maybe it's just me but what the (bleep) does one thing have to do with another. I had to respond to his blog. See below.

"Frank, I find it amusing that you are using a warm August 18 months ago to potentially indicate we will get a bitterly cold wave this January. The question that begs to be answered is how many very warm/above average months of August were NOT followed by a cold blast 18 months later. I'll bet there are more than a few. Most of the time the models see really cold stuff this far in advance, it never materializes. The really cold stuff sneaks up on you and smacks you right in the face. It never gives you 2 weeks warning."

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popper1

Ray-

Where exactly did you post that? I am curious to see what his response is. Seems like a long shot to me too.

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SubTropicRay

Scroll down and you will find it.

Frank Strait's blog

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Kathryn

What does below normal mean? Does it refer to the average high and low?

If each shade of blue represents 5ºF below, that means New Orleans will be 15º below normal. January's average high/low is 62/43ºF (17/6ºC) so according to the chart, we should see 47/28ºF (8/-2ºC). Is this correct? If so, that's not so bad.

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Walt

It almost broke 85 degrees F today in Lake Placid, Florida, after 82 degrees yesterday. Actually, I would welcome some cooler (but not colder) weather. November was the coldest, even below January averages, in my 11 years living here. Eight years ago to the day, today, I experienced my coldest ever freeze/frost (radiational) here, bottoming out at 22 degrees. I don't ever want to experience that again.

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_Keith
What does below normal mean? Does it refer to the average high and low?

If each shade of blue represents 5ºF below, that means New Orleans will be 15º below normal. January's average high/low is 62/43ºF (17/6ºC) so according to the chart, we should see 47/28ºF (8/-2ºC). Is this correct? If so, that's not so bad.

I heard the first local weathercaster today reporting cold next week. No real details except much colder than we have been experiencing, and that we would only get brushed by far colder weather just north of us.

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SubTropicRay

The GFS model has backed away from some of Florida's cold. I hope this pattern continues.

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palmsOrl

I figured, since the nws forcast shows us getting just a few nights in the mid 40s late this week. Even accuweather's long range forcast is showing lows no lower than 43-45, hardly anything to write home about for us in January. Looks like another false alarm, I guess our palms get yet another reprieve.

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_Keith

Our forecast in So. Louisiana are bottoming out around 36 degrees.

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gsn

Ray,

Are you saying the long range forecast changed??? Who would have thunk it?

I'm going to start getting worried when they predict warmer than normal temps!!! :lol:

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mnorell
What does below normal mean? Does it refer to the average high and low?

If each shade of blue represents 5ºF below, that means New Orleans will be 15º below normal. January's average high/low is 62/43ºF (17/6ºC) so according to the chart, we should see 47/28ºF (8/-2ºC). Is this correct? If so, that's not so bad.

Kathryn--

The shading represents only probability of below-average temps, not the severity of the cold. So it could mean 1 degree below average, or 30 below...the only difference is that there's a higher degree of certainty that those dark-blue areas will experience below-normal temps. It's very easy to misunderstand this graphic, a very natural reaction because the color-coding is similar to what we see in temperature maps.

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SubTropicRay

It's back to cold on the GFS model but now it's the 14th - 17th.

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koolthing78

Ray, I figured you be on top of it. As soon as I saw bay news 9's forecast ending up with 60/42, I checked here first. (Of course, weather.com has 71/50 that same day, so let's hope the cold air does more of what they think it's gonna do)

Edited by koolthing78

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_Keith

Weather channel is showing lots of mid 30s during that period, but not even a freeze. I pray for an end to this winter like that.

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Jeff in St Pete

Ray, you seem much calmer reporting these long range forecasts. The meds must really be kicking in! :lol:

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SubTropicRay

The problem with 40's forecasted now is they tend to morph into 30's as the time approaches. Accuweather is, of course, touting the coldest weather in years for the east coast. Tampa's airport had a forecast low of 35 a week in advance of last January's freeze. By the time that morning actually arrived, the airport thermometer read 29F.

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gsn
"Frank, I find it amusing that you are using a warm August 18 months ago to potentially indicate we will get a bitterly cold wave this January. The question that begs to be answered is how many very warm/above average months of August were NOT followed by a cold blast 18 months later. I'll bet there are more than a few. Most of the time the models see really cold stuff this far in advance, it never materializes. The really cold stuff sneaks up on you and smacks you right in the face. It never gives you 2 weeks warning."

The problem with 40's forecasted now is they tend to morph into 30's as the time approaches. Accuweather is, of course, touting the coldest weather in years for the east coast. Tampa's airport had a forecast low of 35 a week in advance of last January's freeze. By the time that morning actually arrived, the airport thermometer read 29F.

Ray,

And here I thought you were on the road to RECOVERY! :lol:

That last statement sounds a little like your buddy/nemisis Frank Strait! :unsure::)

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SubTropicRay

Good news for now Scott. The latest GFS numbers are up several degrees for next week. I'm not accustomed to seeing the numbers go up.

Frank Strait is becomming as much of a downer has H. Margusity. Is it too late for a New Year's resolution? No more Accuweather for me.

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gsn

UP /DOWN ...UP/DOWN....! :lol:

That computer model is SO reliable, and consistant!!! :rolleyes:

No it's not to late, remember I said, put down the mouse and step away from the computer!(at least as it involves accuweather) it is obvious you can't HANDLE it! :lol:

Hang in there Ray only about 5 or 6 weeks left, hopefully!

Edited by gsn

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popper1

It really is something how fast the models change, especially on Accuweather. They had been showing a cold outbreak in mid Jan for awhile, then two days ago it changes to normal temps, yesterday's was very cold and now things are inching back up. Perhaps they just want to cover all bases so they can say they were right, at least for awhile.

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SubTropicRay

David,

Accuweather loves to get people going for ratings sake. Most of the bloggers on that site are cold weather and snow maniacs. They want below 0F weather in Atlanta for a week straight with snow in Florida. Weather Channel never really hypes these potential cold weather events and usually get the forecast right the first time.

Ray

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palmsOrl

The nws forcast is now showing a low of 36 for Orlando next Wed morning. When freezes in our area first enter into the forcast (6-7 days in advance), they usually start with mid 30s then gradually inch down until about 2-3 days before the event. Then the forcast lows usually level off inching up and down until the event hits. Fortunately, the lows these days in our area never seem to get as low as predicted on nights when a freeze is predicted. Maybe forcasters/models are underestimating the urban heat island of the Orlando area? If we are forcast to reach 28, I will expect most likely 31-32 here (based on the last 5 years). Rural areas are totally different though.

-Michael

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Walter John
Jan 10-14 looks cold in the southeast

Not from where I'm standing... :D

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gsn
Jan 10-14 looks cold in the southeast

Not from where I'm standing... :D

Personal foul, illegal use of LATITUDE SOUTH... 15 yard penalty! :lol:

Or a yellow card, or something! :unsure:

Edited by gsn

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_Keith

This has become a very dangerous winter. Not from the cold, but from the lack of. We had 3 weeks of warm weather. Many things think it is spring and are growing lots of tender new growth. A good hard freeze now would do twice the damage than if we had kept up with the cool weather.

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epicure3
Not from where I'm standing... :D

We'll all get back with you in August. :winkie:

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Eric in Orlando

Next Tues. was so supposed to be the coldest night but now it has been raised. Yesterday it was showing 36-37 for orlando but now 40F.

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SubTropicRay

We're back on the other side of the flip-flop. A potential January 17 freeze is possible as NWS describes the descending airmass as Arctic in nature. Chicago is forecast to have a low of -8F next Saturday morning. I know that's Chicago but -8F is more like Edmonton or Calgary lows.

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_Keith
We're back on the other side of the flip-flop. A potential January 17 freeze is possible as NWS describes the descending airmass as Arctic in nature. Chicago is forecast to have a low of -8F next Saturday morning. I know that's Chicago but -8F is more like Edmonton or Calgary lows.

Yep, predicted low her on night of the 16th is 26 degrees. And with all of this preceding warm weather, this one is gonna hurt.

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_Keith

Our forecast has moved to Thursday as the coldest, but the good news is a move upwards from 26 to 29.

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palmsOrl

The forcast here is down a couple degrees to 38 for our low on Thursday. Still, it looks like a freeze is unlikely. The forcasters have have continued to attenuate their predictions in regards to the severity of the upcoming arctic blast. Now the wording is that it will be the coldest air this winter in the northeast (according to accuweather), not in 14 years as they were saying a few days ago. Seeing as we've already had upper 30s in central Florida a few times this season so far, 38F for a low in mid January is not all that impressive.

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epicure3

From the Accuweather.com site.

"FLORIDA CITRUS UNDER ATTACK THIS WEEKEND.

The very cold November in Tampa and Orlando has a weak skill score ( greater than 50%) for a damaging citrus freeze in Florida or South Texas behind it. My take is its coming to Florida... and the combined temp at Tampa and Orlando, long the areas to watch, will hit 26 on the average between the two.

Orlando, because of the urban heat island, is tougher to get than it used to be back in the good old days."

I would assume they mean next weekend since this was posted today.

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gsytch

I have seen different models of the cold. Local forecasts call for cold weather but no deep freeze. Accuweather has us near freezing for at least 3 nights, and possibly lower. What do y'all think? I'm planning ahead so I am prepared on this one. Greg in foggy New Port Richey

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_Keith

Forecast this morning now shows us with 3 nights below freezing, but the good news is the low is up again. Now up to 30. And even better, even with 3 nights below freezing, there are no two nights in a row like that.

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