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happ

"This isn't winter . . . right?

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happ

WXAmerica - October 15, 2006

"If you know anything about how to read numerical model output, you have probably realized that the longer term forecast for most of North America is more than a bit bizarre. It is unusual to get one intense blocking ridge at high latitudes in October. But if you buy into the line of thought provided by the most recent, there are TWO impressive blocks present: a thumb projection complex along the West Coast of the continent and a regressive lateral Rex signature in the vicinity of the Davis Strait and NU.

Even if the 0z GGEM (a clear outlier with its presentation of no PNA-styled ridge) turns out to be correct, near-record cold will be prevalent across the eastern half of the continent for the duration of the medium range. I have no choice but to follow the scenario offered by the American and European schemes, of a classic dual-blocking configuration with a cPk or cA vortex centered roughly over James Bay. With an active subtropical jet stream, it is entirely possible that a strong low could form in Appalachia on Day 6 or 7 with a move into Cape Cod MA. This would mean heavy rainfall and thunderstorms from SC into the Northeast, followed by snow showers and flurries that might, in ANY of the NWP depictions, reach the Interstate 95 corridor from Richmond VA to Houlton ME. The only warmth in this setup? Try the Pacific Northwest (subsidence under high pressure) and FL (with a remnant of the heat ridge).

This isn't winter, but it sure makes for interesting predictions, right?"

October has been unusually cool and wet for California/Southwest.  Frost/freeze warnings/snow in the upper MidWest/Great Lakes/Northeast.  

Seems every new year becomes more unpredictable.  Like what happened to the hurricane season?   :o  Global warming disrupting climatic patterns?   ???

Saturday 10-14-06

San Francisco : 62/54 0.00

Los Angeles : 74/60 0.33

San Diego : 69/62 0.75

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SunnyFl

(happ @ Oct. 15 2006,12:05)

QUOTE
Seems every new year becomes more unpredictable.  Like what happened to the hurricane season?   :o  

I wish I understood the "blocking" concepts, and this "Rex block" I keep seeing mentioned in  his newsletter and elsewhere.

What happened to our Mean Season was a beautiful joining of EN with the SAL - the dust from which reportedly has an inhibiting effect on trop. cyclonic formation, but it was a wonderful summer not having those terrible storms wreaking havoc on our coasts.

Wonder if Fairchild has recovered from the double whammy of Katrina & Wilma last year.  Or Flamingo Gardens, which was just about destroyed.

Global warming disrupting climatic patterns?   ???
  Do you think it might increase the frequency of El Nino/La Nina conditions?

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syersj

South Texas has stayed warm/hot.  We haven't had any cold weather yet.

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Steve

Well the cold sure did hit my part of the country!

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spockvr6

(Steve @ Oct. 24 2006,10:13)

QUOTE
Well the cold sure did hit my part of the country!

Same here!

Prior to this AM, the coldest my weather station has logged this season was 61.0F.

Ma Nature decided to skip the 50's altogether and went right to the 40's!  The bottom was 49.8F at my house this AM.

Tonight is likely to be a degree or two colder according to the forecasts.

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syersj

Well it did get cold for the first time.  We have also had 2 nights in upper 40s.  Came through here first before heading to FL.  But last night was only 57 and tonights low is supposed to be in mid/upper 60s with cloud cover and possibly rain.

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SoLando

Lowest we got was between 51 and 52. I was still numb from heat to toe though...

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SubTropicRay

A strong early cold front like this may be an indication of what's to come.  November has often been a tell tale sign of the upcoming winter.  Rarely has a mild November been followed by a hard, widespread freeze in central Florida.  We shall see what gets served with turkey this year.  With all the snow falling up north already, I'm betting on a cool November and a cold December.  I hope I'm wrong.

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Oct. 25 2006,11:17)

QUOTE
A strong early cold front like this may be an indication of what's to come.  November has often been a tell tale sign of the upcoming winter.  Rarely has a mild November been followed by a hard, widespread freeze in central Florida.  We shall see what gets served with turkey this year.  With all the snow falling up north already, I'm betting on a cool November and a cold December.  I hope I'm wrong.

Late Oct 2005 gave us this same type of front where we saw upper 40's.

If the rest of winter follows 2005's path, I will be tickled :D

If not, I just might burn some propane!

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BobbyinNY
A strong early cold front like this may be an indication of what's to come.  November has often been a tell tale sign of the upcoming winter.  Rarely has a mild November been followed by a hard, widespread freeze in central Florida.  We shall see what gets served with turkey this year.  With all the snow falling up north already, I'm betting on a cool November and a cold December.  I hope I'm wrong.

Oh c'mon Ray... no no no....... I only like snow (1) day/year on December 25th.. after that, I want it to disappear.

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SubTropicRay

This is true Larry but I think Wilma was responsible for bringing that cold air down.  This years front came down unaided by any outside influence.  I hope it does turn out like 2005.

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Alan_Tampa

Ray, I am sure you can remember other Octobers with a TOUCH of cold followed by Novembers of warmth and smiles.  An outbreak this  early might "relieve" the cold pressure behind the dam, metaphorically.  

Snow cover in December in those "other" states, now that spells trouble with a capital F.

Alan

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cryptobionic

Ditto, Larry. Last winter we experienced more cool days, yet no considerably extreme temperatures. It was generally a kind season, sort of like a California Winter.

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SubTropicRay

Please bear with me guys.  These early cold fronts tend to make me a bit more pessimistic than usual.  I'm hoping the El Nino becomes a strong one, steers the cold fronts away and ends this dry spell we've had for the last month.  It has rained ONE time here since October 1st.

Ray

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BobbyinNY
Please bear with me guys.  These early cold fronts tend to make me a bit more pessimistic than usual.  I'm hoping the El Nino becomes a strong one, steers the cold fronts away and ends this dry spell we've had for the last month.  It has rained ONE time here since October 1st.

Ray

Yeah, we've had VERY little rain as well, but it's been windy as a mother... for the last 3 days we've had nothing but 30mph winds with gusts over 45....... The only thing good about that is that the possibility of frost stays away.

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SunnyFl

(Ray @ Tampa,Oct. 25 2006,11:17)

QUOTE
A strong early cold front like this may be an indication of what's to come.  November has often been a tell tale sign of the upcoming winter.  Rarely has a mild November been followed by a hard, widespread freeze in central Florida.  We shall see what gets served with turkey this year.  With all the snow falling up north already, I'm betting on a cool November and a cold December.  I hope I'm wrong.

I've been pessimistic for awhile too, Ray.  There's just "something" in the air.  It seems that the fronts have been making their way further south much earlier than usual, unless my memory is playing tricks on me.  This last front - according to NOAA - swept all the way down to Cuba.  Of course, it probably didn't have the effect there that it had on us, but still - you usually hear of these fronts moving into the Caribbean in Dec.  Not so sure about October ???

I used my car heater 2 mornings in a row.  Don't usually have to use it at all.

I'd just hate to see us return to the cold days of the 80's when even parts of Pinellas were clinging onto a 9b rating.  

My 3rd big Fine-Leaf will be staying in his pot, I think.

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SunnyFl

(BobbyinNY @ Oct. 25 2006,11:46)

QUOTE
I only like snow (1) day/year on December 25th

Not me.  Hey Bobby - I'm Dreaming of a Warm Christmas! :cool:

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happ

Received this El Nino discussion courtesy of American Meteorological Society - Los Angeles Chapter

Wednesday October 25, 2006

El Nino is here! a moderate one maybe . . . a wet winter is on the horizon, however, with the anomalous warm pool over the northeast Pacific could ruin it. We will likely get a good subtropical jet stream bringing most of our storms and some Pineapple connections into California if a good MJO kicks in and moves across the Pacific . . . a bit wet with a strong influence from the lower latitudes as a subtropical jet kicks in. . . subtropical jet for a very wet winter. If the waters to the north cool by later in the year into the new year, then the cards can change and we could get wetter by mid February into March! For this El Nino, help from a higher latitude cool pool would be nice. Lets see how the north Pacific warms and cool in the coming months. El Nino may continue to strengthen depending on westerly bursts from the west Pacific. . . .  El Nino could indeed be a moderate event as the Climate Prediction Center is indicating.

Look for continued inside slider pattern as north Pacific ridge remains anchored off the Canadian coast for continued off and on offshore wind events.

Nov-Dec will be for the most part warm and dry in California with that tall ridge along the West Coast and slightly inland.  We will get many inside sliders.  A few may cut back over So CA to bring us light, cold showers (skiers’ only hope).  A very few weak cut-offs will break through the ridge to bring us some showers.  We may see 20-30% of normal rain in Nov and Dec if we are lucky.

Jan will probably be a transition month.  It is possible that the warm anomaly along 150W will shift or weaken, allowing the West Coast ridge to break down a bit more often.  Also, the first influence of this developing El Niño may be felt in the form of low-latitude breakthrough storms, mostly after mid-Jan (this is the typical beginning of a moderate El Niño winter).

Feb-Mar should be our wet months, and even Apr may be above normal.  The full effect of El Niño will be felt – to the extent that it can be.  Hopefully, the West Coast ridge will go into a higher-latitude block and will allow these subtropical breakthrough storm tracks to intermittently develop.  We could see 150-180% of normal rain for those two – perhaps three – months.  

I caution, however, that this east Pacific warm anomaly is located near 37N, 152W.  The longitude is perfect for a West Coast ridge, but more importantly, the latitude is a bit south of some of the North Pacific anomalies, which are often 40-43N.  The latter can often pinch off into blocks that allow low-latitude subtropical breakthroughs.  The former, with highest pressure nearer our latitude, screws us.  

We will have to see if the North Pacific warm anomaly remains intact where it is now, and perhaps even strengthens . . . That would be ideal as a couplet for El Niño  storms!  23-27 inches in L.A. Basin for the season.

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Scott

I'm lovin the nice weather. I'm still in shorts and a T-Shirt, and I want to stay that way.

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cryptobionic

I swear I read the same fear-filled posts months ago, but instead about hurricanes blowin' us all away this year.

Statistically, the less tropical systems affecting the Gulf States, the colder the winter, related to El Niño or not. So if all my babies freeze this Winter, I'm officially blaming all the Hurricane Haters. You know who you are.

(wry smiley icon goes here).

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ruskinPalms

(cryptobionic @ Oct. 25 2006,23:56)

QUOTE
I swear I read the same fear-filled posts months ago, but instead about hurricanes blowin' us all away this year.

Statistically, the less tropical systems affecting the Gulf States, the colder the winter, related to El Niño or not. So if all my babies freeze this Winter, I'm officially blaming all the Hurricane Haters. You know who you are.

(wry smiley icon goes here).

Yep, I'm a total weather moron, but I know that the lack of tropical systems = the lack of tropical weather! Too many cold fronts have passed on into the carribean. It has been cold in my neck of the woods! Mid 40'sF at the end of October!

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SunnyFl

(cryptobionic @ Oct. 25 2006,23:56)

QUOTE
if all my babies freeze this Winter, I'm officially blaming all the Hurricane Haters. You know who you are.

(wry smiley icon goes here).

Uh-oh  [[[ sneaks quietly out of the room ]]]

:laugh:

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philinsydney

No offence, but we HATE El Nino. It means drought and bushfires here.

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SubTropicRay

It's been snowing up north like it's the end of November not October.  Warm winter? LOL Cold this winter will be...very cold.

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BobbyinNY

31.f on my deck this morning... patchy frost on all glass surfaces.... Still have  a

few things outside and growing... Now we're due to get 50-60mph winds on saturday... weather has not been good here to say the least.

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BobbyinNY
It's been snowing up north like it's the end of November not October.  Warm winter? LOL Cold this winter will be...very cold

Ray, I hate to admit it, but you're probably right... We've been 10-15f below normal for this time of year.....  Buffalo, which is about 400 miles north of us was under a blizzard 2 weeks ago - thank GOD we haven't been anywhere close to snow yet but still cold as hell.

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BobbyinNY
Not me.  Hey Bobby - I'm Dreaming of a Warm Christmas!  

ahhh. there's nothing better than to wake up on christmas day with a nice blanket of snow on the ground. Even If I move to FL, I will always come to New York for Christmas - it's magical.

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jam99

23C here today with above 10C nights but don't worry Bobby, I am sure it won't be long before we catch up. One thing becomes more and more evident: when it's relatively warm in Europe, it's cold in North America and vice versa.

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BobbyinNY
23C here today with above 10C nights but don't worry Bobby, I am sure it won't be long before we catch up. One thing becomes more and more evident: when it's relatively warm in Europe, it's cold in North America and vice versa

I can't fight it anymore.. it's got it's own mind... But I CAN crank up the heaters in my greenhouse :)

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spockvr6

(BobbyinNY @ Oct. 27 2006,11:38)

QUOTE
Not me.  Hey Bobby - I'm Dreaming of a Warm Christmas!  

ahhh. there's nothing better than to wake up on christmas day with a nice blanket of snow on the ground. Even If I move to FL, I will always come to New York for Christmas - it's magical.

Remember this map Bobby....this was your ammo with your wife with regard to that "White Christmas" argument as a reason for not coming south!

white_christmas_probs.gif

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happ

(Ray, Tampa @ Oct. 27 2006,08:27)

QUOTE
It's been snowing up north like it's the end of November not October.  Warm winter? LOL Cold this winter will be...very cold.

It's quite plausible that the nation will warm as winter approaches.  Particularly in El Nino phase.  NWS/Climate Prediction Center predicts mild conditions :   http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2724.htm

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SunnyFl

(Ray @ Tampa,Oct. 27 2006,08:27)

QUOTE
It's been snowing up north like it's the end of November not October.  Warm winter? LOL Cold this winter will be...very cold.

I agree, cold.... and a long one.

Caught the end of a forecast on the radio, so as we got home we turned on the NOAA station.  Quite a storm they're expecting for tonight - winds around 30mph, but in severe cells in the squall line, even 60mph might be possible.  

We've brought the more vulnerable potted crotons in along with the adenium and my husband staked up the tall cordyline.  Hoping the potted palms can manage all right.

Hope it's all much ado about nothing - time will tell.

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BobbyinNY
Remember this map Bobby....this was your ammo with your wife with regard to that "White Christmas" argument as a reason for not coming south!

That's very True... Last year it only snowed 2x, melted the next day and NOT a drop on Christmas.. On christmas day I wasn't even wearing a jacket. Now if you wanna see SNOW, you go to Northern Vermont... that's snow.

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ruskinPalms

Bobby, I grew up in Indiana in that same blue zone of Larry's map that you are in and I can only remember 1 or 2 white christmases in 18 years....Of course I probably can't remember the first 3 or 4 years too well  :) .  When it snows, it is beautiful, especially at night when illuminated by the street lights and with Christmas lights everywhere (yes, it would snow around Christams, just rarely on Christmas...) Otherwise, winter just plain sucks. The snow stays white for about 3 hours before it turns gray from dirt and pollution, then the horrid slush phase, then maybe the turning back to ice and fall on your ass phase. Well, you get the picture. Moving south is worth missing the snow, even around Christmas. My idea of Christmas has certainly changed from when I was a kid to now. I think I associate Christmas with warmer weather now.

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BobbyinNY
Bobby, I grew up in Indiana in that same blue zone of Larry's map that you are in and I can only remember 1 or 2 white christmases in 18 years....Of course I probably can't remember the first 3 or 4 years too well   .  When it snows, it is beautiful, especially at night when illuminated by the street lights and with Christmas lights everywhere (yes, it would snow around Christams, just rarely on Christmas...) Otherwise, winter just plain sucks. The snow stays white for about 3 hours before it turns gray from dirt and pollution, then the horrid slush phase, then maybe the turning back to ice and fall on your ass phase. Well, you get the picture. Moving south is worth missing the snow, even around Christmas. My idea of Christmas has certainly changed from when I was a kid to now. I think I associate Christmas with warmer weather now

Yeah, I hear ya Bill... I would definitely trade a long winter up here anyday for warmer weather.. But even when I lived in South Florida, I would always come to NY for Christmas.... Santa comes on a sled, not a jet-ski..lol.

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glbower

Bobby -- there's nothing like walking out to get the morning paper on Christmas morning wearing shorts and flip flops, unless it's pausing on the way back in to admire a new maroon spear on my Areca vestiaria.

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