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Californians: Heads Up on Possible Arctic Airmass

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happ

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...nomalyNA216.gif

This is a model outlook West Coast meteorologists are looking at. A strong high pressure system sets up over Alaska & descending winds usher in a very cold airmass over Nevada. This is the type of dynamics that can bring us a serious freeze [comes in the "back door" without the benefit of the Pacific ocean to warm the air mass like in 1990 & 2007]. This model is well over a week away & things can change considerably so it is too early to panic. Ten days out is considered a "marginal" forecast.

Stay tuned :unsure:

Edited by happ

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Dypsisdean

These back door, low humidity, no help from the influence of the Pacific, arctic surges, are the real killers for California, even on the coast. Let's hope the dynamics change. Happ knows his weather, so hopefully he'll keep us tuned in.

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osideterry

Happ - We don't hear from you for a while, now you return to scare the cheese out of us.

Thanks for the heads up though. I'm curious to see how weather.com's 10-day forecast progresses. They perfectly predicted the 2007 freeze one week ahead.

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John Case

Our 10 day forecast in NorCal shows a chance for rain next Friday-Saturday. I am not sure about any of this as we haven't seen 60 all week and we hit a seasonal low of 36F this morning.

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BS Man about Palms

I had heard tonite was gonna be cool, so I grabbed a few things to set inside when I got home. Then I sit down to read this... :(

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happ

Obviously I don't want to bum anyone out over this possible scenario & we all know that there is nothing we can do to stop 'mother nature' :lol:

I could keep this forecast quiet & wait and see or let you know that for the first time this late autumn the models are showing a significant change in the weather. There already has been colder than normal temps in the eastern half of the nation w/ freezing temps down into Texas. A configuration of the polar jet stream funneling cold air into the West is now at issue. We all know from experience what can happen at our latitude if a continental air mass moves over California. The models continue to advertise a significant cold invasion around the 15th but if the low pressure system moves in off the Pacific then it will, of-course be much milder. And the models are trending the system westward out over the ocean. It may be nothing more than a cold storm with relatively low snow levels & chilly nights.

In the meantime next week could get rather warm w/ 'santa ana' conditions before all hell breaks lose :blink:

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PalmGuyWC

I guess it's time to cover my Jubeaopsis and move some things under cover. Thanks for the heads up Happ.

Dick

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BS Man about Palms

I made it a point to watch "our" John Coleman here in SD last night. He said his "super computer" was showing a possibility of rain coming in on the 15th or so. I don't know which is right, but I like his prediction better. :)

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palmazon

talk about about coming in from the cold...

Hey happ - good to hear from you

since The Big Freeze, you're the EF Hutton of the SoCal prognosticators

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PalmGuyWC

...........And N. Calif. too. What ever is coming we usually get a day or two before you.

Dick

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happ
talk about about coming in from the cold...

Hey happ - good to hear from you

since The Big Freeze, you're the EF Hutton of the SoCal prognosticators

Hi Danny

Thanks for the compliment, I think :lol:

This upcoming invasion appears to get wetter as the models look into the astronomical future but confidence grows that significantly colder weather is in the "cards." The worry comes after the storm leaves in it's wake a pool of very cold air [Yukon Express]. Anytime high pressure forms in Alaska the result is a push of arctica our way.

In the meantime plenty of warm sun next week.

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ellidro

Accuweather shows Encinitas getting to 39-40 degrees around the 13th of December. :rage:

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osideterry

Accuweather has my low next Saturday at 34F, with RAIN. I guess the precip keeps us from dropping lower, but that's 3 degrees from a bad time.

By comparison, weather.com has my low at 41F and mostly sunny. Obviously this is too early to call.

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Shon

That's strange Accuweather shows me at 37 sandwiched by two 43 days.With rain.

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John Case

What we need is all of us to get together and have Algore out here to do a speech and things will warm up, I'm sure....

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John Case
What we need is all of us to get together and have Algore out here to do a speech and things will warm up, I'm sure....

Things may be getting serious. Our high today was 46F, by far our lowest high of the season, and it looks to be clearing outside, rather than the fog we have had.

The arctic push coming early?

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LJG

I think Happ is Jack Frost or Old Man Winter. He disappears from PT during the warm months and comes back during the cold. Then brings bad news. here I was thinking it was going to be a mild winter!

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happ
I think Happ is Jack Frost or Old Man Winter. He disappears from PT during the warm months and comes back during the cold. Then brings bad news. here I was thinking it was going to be a mild winter!

:lol: There's been nothing to post! The only interesting weather is in winter; the rest of the year is eternal sameness. I don't warn readers about heat waves because we all know to water heavily & everything will be fine. Wind we live with since it really isn't an issue except in 'santa ana' events.

For well-established trees our cold spells are rarely lethal, right? Lowland\ riverbeds present the biggest challenge each year & probably see some frost each winter [i could be wrong.

There's an added degree of uncertainty due to global changes in the weather, but models are generally reliable. The consensus of all computer analysis is that cold & wet weather should move into California by the end of this week\ early next week. A large high pressure ridge will build over the state by mid-week with warm temps\ clear skies \ gusty wind. The high will then retrograde & go back out into the Pacific toward Alaska. Normally weather systems move west to east as we experience in California. By moving out to sea, the arctic jet stream can gain entry into the West.

The good news is that moisture will modify the Canadian airmass. The first models had the spill of Arctic cold moving into Nevada away from water. This is not a 2007 event but it will be our first taste of winter. :badday:

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tropicalb

looking forward to March 15th.....and here's hoping i don't have to move many plants around this winter....especially in a state of panic.

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PalmGuyWC

The threat of cold has promted me to start moving the tender things under shelter and some things inside. I'm only half finished and.......I've already thrown my back out. When will I learn to use a dolly?

Dick

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osideterry

Looks like I finally have to bring the Manilla Palm inside.

weather.com has my low tomorrow as 39F

accuweather has my low tomorrow as 36F

weather.com has my low for the next 10 days as 38F (Dec 14)

accuweather has my low for the next days as 33F (Dec 15)

accuweather's forecast is on average 2F lower on a daily basis. What's up with that?

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Palmy

Accuweather in Eugene has my temp down to 20F.

Accuweather in Orinda (bay area) has my temp down to 31F

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George Sparkman

Hi Happ,

it is always good to read your weather posts.

This time of the year it is really important to stay on top of the information available.

Thanks,

George Sparkman

Cycads-n-Palms.com

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John Case

It is 7:30 pm and 39F here tonite with clear skies.......the prediction is 30s.....may get to low 30s by morning....

I hate this...

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BS Man about Palms

John Coleman said tonite it looks like a rainy week around here next week, then sunny for Christmas....

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PalmGuyWC

It's 32 or 34 F in Walnut Creek this morning, depending on which temp. probe to believe. All of the roof tops are white with frost. This is the first real frost of the year and about 3 weeks behind the norm, so I shouldn't complain. My Parajubaea TVT has some ice crystals on some of the fronds, but it's in a very exposed area. No fog this morning which we have had for the past week, thus colder temps.

Just in the nick of time, Patrick Schafer was here yesterday, and he covered all the hybrid fruit on the Butias and Syagrus to keep the frost off the undeveloped fruit.

I heard on the radio yesterday that the Pacific is the coolest its been in 20 years. That's not good news.

Dick

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PalmGuyWC

Terry,

You are scaring the hell out of me. Seems like these forcast are for S. Calif., but what about N. Calif?? We usually get it before you do. What do you think about all this Hap? Cold stacked on top of cold doesn't sound good. I really don't need another 50 year "event" in my lifetime.

Dick

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John Case

This morning the temp in my front yard was 30F at 7:30 with ice (yes, ice) on my windshield. It took 5 minutes to get it off in order to drive to appointments.

Look like this cold spell may be short with a possible cold rain this weekend.

Oh, well, more setbacks.....

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happ
Terry,

You are scaring the hell out of me. Seems like these forcast are for S. Calif., but what about N. Calif?? We usually get it before you do. What do you think about all this Hap? Cold stacked on top of cold doesn't sound good. I really don't need another 50 year "event" in my lifetime.

Dick

I know Kevin Martin\ Ontario Weather Service & his reports are taken seriously yet the models have been inconsistent. In-any-event, it will be cold w/ the worry that an arctic trough could set-up over the West Coast well into Christmas. Impulses of cold wet weather. Clear nights would be very cold in this scenario.

Northern California and the entire West will be effected by this polar event. It's just too early to pin down temps 10-15 days away. :wacko:

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Kim

Well I am certainly glad I popped into this forum for a quick look! :o Here I've been thinking how fine the weather has been for December...time to get to work!

Thanks Happ!

Add note: I just checked my Accuweather forecast, nothing below 45 (corrected from 41) predicted, but lots of rainy days. Well, at least I can shut off the irrigation for a bit, and forturnately no danger to my plants at that temp. But time to awaken from the fog of fall and be more vigilant.

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osideterry

I've looked 7 days out on weatherunderground, 10 days out on weather_com, and 15 days out on accuweather. The lowest low I'm seeing is 35F from accuweather, and they are always lower than actual. I won't worry until I see other forecasters line up.

By the way, they all forecast my low this morning to be 36-39F, and it was 44F.

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happ
I've looked 7 days out on weatherunderground, 10 days out on weather_com, and 15 days out on accuweather. The lowest low I'm seeing is 35F from accuweather, and they are always lower than actual. I won't worry until I see other forecasters line up.

By the way, they all forecast my low this morning to be 36-39F, and it was 44F.

Terry, here's some feedback from different perspectives. The OWS report is of-course alarming but is considered premature. http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2008...sets-sights-on/

Current sea temps for SoCal are between 60-65F & would contribute moisture to air mass raising the land temp. Here are excerpts from AMS-LA chapter on next week's system:

"The latest ECMWF\ European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

has been quite consistent on its pattern through the weekend, with a deep trough

digging into the West. The trough axis remains slightly inland, and suggests

that precip amounts for our area will not be great. Low surface pressure inland

should give SoCal good onshore flow. So, once the cold air aloft arrives around

Saturday night and Sunday, perhaps it can work on the warmish ocean waters and

we will have some convection\ thunderstorms.

The ECMWF shows the blocking ridge building nicely into Alaska from Sat thru

Wed, and at 500 mb the flow on Sun and Mon originates from near the North Pole

and dives south into California. By midweek the flow buckles and cutbacks off

of the coast, and a nice-looking trough appears poised to give us a storm

Wed/Thu. Again, the locally warmish ocean temps could help some with this

system to increase moisture levels, if the system pans out.

At the surface, the really cold Arctic air spills into the Dakotas and vicinity

this weekend, and does not appear to affect the Pacific Coast states through the

ten days. So, at this point, this looks like a cold upper-air event more than a

damaging freeze event for CA."

Too early to panic [i hope :rolleyes:

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tropicalb

thanks for keeping us up to date Happ....this is the first thread i view now!

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DoomsDave

Happ!

Good to see you back again!

Give us the truth, because, well, we need it, preferably in time to haul the tender stuff in, or get some tarps . . . .

Of course, my big tree was a great big cold protector . . . . .

Sigh!

dave

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freakypalmguy

Thank you Happ, great info. I'm on the road a lot, so I always need to be prepped in advace. Advance waring is critical.

Matt

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BS Man about Palms

I hit 40.8F last night in my coldest area. The wind must have picked up because by 620am it was back up to 43F. Better than the 37F I saw predicted for O'side. (But I think that's at the valley based airport.)

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Kim

At 5am I had 45F, at 5:45 it hit 39.7, but by 6:00 it was above 40F again, and rose steadily. Clear and cold!

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BigFrond

I'm moving in the small, tender palms this time around and not take the "can't handle the weather in my yard then so be it" approach. I almost started to move in the stuff last night, maybe tonight or tomorrow. :unsure:

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