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BobbyinNY

OCTOBER THREAD.. How's it going....

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Alan_Tampa

Ruskin Palms, I thought it had been determined that you are in a cold air drainage area, a river of cold runs through it (your yard).  This could well explain the difference in temps.

You need a dam to block that icy stream.

Alan

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ruskinPalms

Alan, I am afraid that dam won't be built for another 10 years or so (the dam being a nice, cozy thick layer of pollution capping the atmospere on windless nights due to urbanization and development in this part of Hillsboroough County). Until then, I plan to just bitch, moan and groan about these icy waters in the hopes that I blow off enough hot air to keep my cocos alive  :;):  More likely, I will probably living in Miami within a few years and once I'm there I'll just start complaining that I can't grow lipstick palms  :cool: .

Bill

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SoLando

The lowest it got here was 55 this morning.

Even though we are WAY below normal, we're expected to go above normal by Friday at Hi 85; Lo 70.

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Neofolis

Isn't Saturday night/Sunday morning supposed to be cold in Florida as well.  That's the way it looks on the forecasts I saw.

Today has been quite odd here.  It only reached 15°/59°F today, but it's now 2:25 am and the temperature has been rising steadily since 6:00 pm yesterday.  It's now 18°C/64°F with a maximum daytime temperature forecast today of 16°C/61°F.  There have been a few days recently where the nights were warmer than the days, very strange.

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happ

(SunnyFl @ Oct. 25 2006,07:05)

QUOTE
The reading on the thermom outdoors is better than yesterday.  It showed 53F, same as St. Pete/Clw airport.

Albert Whitted, at 5:53, was 64!  How strange - in past years, we've been as little as 2 or 3 degrees lower, but last night and the night before, much lower.  I do not like this.

According to NOAA radio, the official overnight low for the Bay area  (TIA? MacDill?) was 49 - only 5F higher than the all-time low recorded in 1891 - and 17F lower than normal.

It really feels more like a late Nov or Dec pattern, with these cold temps and fronts coming down one after another.  The Red Flag Warnings are still in effect as well.

What a difference from last October - when we were watching tropical weather systems, specifically Wilma, which landfell at Naples a year ago yesterday, and went on to wreak havoc on S. FL.  And through the following January, tropical storms continued to be the focus.  No sign of tropical troubles this October, and our attention is turned more to fronts from the north and the chill in the overnight hours.

Interesting discussion   :;):

El Nino sheared all tropical activity in the Atlantic only to open the door for upper latitude invasions.  I can not image 40's in Florida in October!  :o

It can happen in SoCal, too.

But rest assured that El Nino winters in Florida & California are wetter than normal but quite mild   :D

Cool day today but winds will pick up overnight for return to quite dry air   :(

LA : 77/62

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SunnyFl

(happ @ Oct. 25 2006,21:43)

QUOTE
El Nino sheared all tropical activity in the Atlantic only to open the door for upper latitude invasions.  I can not image 40's in Florida in October!  :o

It can happen in SoCal, too.

But rest assured that El Nino winters in Florida & California are wetter than normal but quite mild   :D

Cool day today but winds will pick up overnight for return to quite dry air   :(

LA : 77/62

[[[nods]]]  The year of the shear, it's being called.

Earlier, some were predicting just a weak El Nino, but that didn't sound quite right, given the amount of shear in the Atlantic.  Looking at the contrast between 2006 and the two years prior, something was definitely happening.

Now they're calling for a moderate event.  And this brings up the likelihood of stronger El Nino storms, which can even be felt here (as we saw in 92-93 and 97-98).  That same shear that quiets our tropical weather can also play a role in flooding rains and tornadogenesis.

But the possibility of a mild winter is very good news - and I hope that the wetter winter in CA will give a boost to the tropicals planted there.

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BobbyinNY

here we go again...... 39.4f this morning for a low...... and it's so damn windy everything in my yard is flying around.

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spockvr6

(BobbyinNY @ Oct. 26 2006,09:00)

QUOTE
here we go again...... 39.4f this morning for a low...... and it's so damn windy everything in my yard is flying around.

Bobby-

Try and look at the bright side...39.4F is 10b  :D

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happ

(SunnyFl @ Oct. 26 2006,06:29)

QUOTE

(happ @ Oct. 25 2006,21:43)

QUOTE
El Nino sheared all tropical activity in the Atlantic only to open the door for upper latitude invasions.  I can not image 40's in Florida in October!  :o

It can happen in SoCal, too.

But rest assured that El Nino winters in Florida & California are wetter than normal but quite mild   :D

Cool day today but winds will pick up overnight for return to quite dry air   :(

LA : 77/62

[[[nods]]]  The year of the shear, it's being called.

Earlier, some were predicting just a weak El Nino, but that didn't sound quite right, given the amount of shear in the Atlantic.  Looking at the contrast between 2006 and the two years prior, something was definitely happening.

Now they're calling for a moderate event.  And this brings up the likelihood of stronger El Nino storms, which can even be felt here (as we saw in 92-93 and 97-98).  That same shear that quiets our tropical weather can also play a role in flooding rains and tornadogenesis.

But the possibility of a mild winter is very good news - and I hope that the wetter winter in CA will give a boost to the tropicals planted there.

The last "weak" El Nino" 2 yrs ago produced a record 55-inch rain total in the LA foothills & over 100" in San Gabriel mts.  Outflow into the Sacramento delta damaged levees.

Subtropical flow winters are moist w/ mild nights   :D   Plants do fine except in damp/poorly drained soil.

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SunnyFl

(BobbyinNY @ Oct. 26 2006,09:00)

QUOTE
here we go again...... 39.4f this morning for a low...... and it's so damn windy everything in my yard is flying around.

Don't you hate that!  I hope none of your plants were damaged.   I swear, I've lost more of them to wind than to cold.  Including - of all things - a crepe myrtle.

My guess is, at least down here, it's going to be a windy winter.

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amazondk

A Cold spell has hit Manaus.  This is the first time in a while I have not seen it over 90F.  It rained off and on during the day, and was mild for the most part.  I think the rainy season may be having an early start this year.

dk

Manaus Weather past 24 hours as per NOAA

Oct27last24hours.jpg

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SunnyFl

(happ @ Oct. 26 2006,21:41)

QUOTE
The last "weak" El Nino" 2 yrs ago produced a record 55-inch rain total in the LA foothills & over 100" in San Gabriel mts.  Outflow into the Sacramento delta damaged levees.

Wow - that's an incredible amount of rain!  And from a "weak" EN - what happened during the stronger ones in the 90's?

The damage to the levees sounds worrisome - and I've heard that there's reason for concern about how safe they are.  Is that true, and are there plans for strengthening them?

DK wrote:

A Cold spell has hit Manaus.  This is the first time in a while I have not seen it over 90F.  It rained off and on during the day, and was mild for the most part.  I think the rainy season may be having an early start this year.
  Interesting that your cool-down immediately followed ours - possibly the same front that plunged southward, sweeping right over Cuba, had a role in this?   We'd also had temps hovering around 90F prior to the front.  Of course, your cool-down didn't involve 40s and 50s as our did :D

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amazondk

Sunny,

I don't think it got this far, we have the entire Caribbean and the mountains of the Guyana Shield in the way and then a lot of forest.  The cooling off here is caused by the onset of the rainy seasonal pattern which is caused by internal Amazonian factors.  The cold fronts have pretty much stopped getting very far north from Southern Brazil now as they head into the summer season.  But, it was nice to have a day without so much intense sun and a bit of rain.  El niño does have an effect on our weather patterns though.

dk

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SunnyFl

(amazondk @ Oct. 27 2006,07:57)

QUOTE
Sunny,

I don't think it got this far, we have the entire Caribbean and the mountains of the Guyana Shield in the way and then a lot of forest.  The cooling off here is caused by the onset of the rainy seasonal pattern which is caused by internal Amazonian factors.  The cold fronts have pretty much stopped getting very far north from Southern Brazil now as they head into the summer season.  But, it was nice to have a day without so much intense sun and a bit of rain.  El niño does have an effect on our weather patterns though.

dk

Yes, I guess it was silly of me to think one of those fronts would make it past the mountains and that far down from the Caribbean.  It was pure coincidence that your cool-down occurred just after our big front came through.  Hoping you're still getting some relief from those 90+ temps, whew.

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spockvr6

Rain rain rain!

In Northern Pinellas we are getting a nice downpour at the current time.  This is needed as it hasnt rained here since October 12th and the prior rain before that was September 26th.

But...sorry Sunny....looks like your part of town is getting jipped :-(

rain.jpg

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happ

(SunnyFl @ Oct. 27 2006,07:00)

QUOTE

(happ @ Oct. 26 2006,21:41)

QUOTE
The last "weak" El Nino" 2 yrs ago produced a record 55-inch rain total in the LA foothills & over 100" in San Gabriel mts.  Outflow into the Sacramento delta damaged levees.

Wow - that's an incredible amount of rain!  And from a "weak" EN - what happened during the stronger ones in the 90's?

The damage to the levees sounds worrisome - and I've heard that there's reason for concern about how safe they are.  Is that true, and are there plans for strengthening them?

55 inches within 150 days.  Several days of 5" totals   :P   Completely baffled the weather nerds since previous "strong" El Ninos were more than 15 inches less rain  :o

Voters must approve of a huge project to rebuild/strengthen the delta levees.

It's anything but moist right now :

NWS-LA 1800 H 10-27-06

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH

ALTADENA   CLEAR     75  21  13

CHATSWORTH CLEAR  81  16  9

CHINO          CLEAR     72  38  29

CLAREMONT  CLEAR    77  14   9

GRANADA HILLS  CLEAR 77  12   8

MARCH AFB      PTCLDY    79  14   8

ONTARIO       PTCLDY    81  18   9

RIVERSIDE    CLEAR     81  11   7

SAN GABRIEL  CLEAR     86  19   8        

SAN RAFAEL HILLS CLEAR  80  10  7

SANTA CLARITA CLEAR     79  10   8

WHITTIER HILLS  CLEAR   78  -9   3

WOODLAND HILLS CLEAR  81  14   8    

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spockvr6

(happ @ Oct. 27 2006,21:34)

QUOTE
It's anything but moist right now :

NWS-LA 1800 H 10-27-06

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH

ALTADENA   CLEAR     75  21  13

CHATSWORTH CLEAR  81  16  9

CHINO          CLEAR     72  38  29

CLAREMONT  CLEAR    77  14   9

GRANADA HILLS  CLEAR 77  12   8

MARCH AFB      PTCLDY    79  14   8

ONTARIO       PTCLDY    81  18   9

RIVERSIDE    CLEAR     81  11   7

SAN GABRIEL  CLEAR     86  19   8        

SAN RAFAEL HILLS CLEAR  80  10  7

SANTA CLARITA CLEAR     79  10   8

WHITTIER HILLS  CLEAR   78  -9   3

WOODLAND HILLS CLEAR  81  14   8    

Goodness gracious!

The dewpoint is 73.4F here now and rising  :;):

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SunnyFl

(spockvr6 @ Oct. 27 2006,21:42)

QUOTE
The dewpoint is 73.4F here now and rising  :;):

The storm isn't far off now.

Waterspout has been sighted off Clearwater, moving N/E.  Most likely won't be the only one tonight.

I now have a few of my potted crotons indoors:

Rudy Bachman

Gloriosa

Franklin Roosevelt

Pinocchio

The Unknown AFD

along with 3 adenium hybrids (beauties) that I don't want damaged by wind tonight.  I did plant the potted pandanus, so I don't have to worry about it blowing away (as it did the other day).  Right now, there's only a warm, damp breeze and I must say, it is beautiful out there.

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SunnyFl

(spockvr6 @ Oct. 27 2006,21:16)

QUOTE
Rain rain rain!

In Northern Pinellas we are getting a nice downpour at the current time.  This is needed as it hasnt rained here since October 12th and the prior rain before that was September 26th.

But...sorry Sunny....looks like your part of town is getting jipped :-(

The severe stuff I can do without.  But but but.... we needed that rain.  I swear, Lealman must have an atmospheric umbrella over it!  We get gypped a lot  :(

It's like a little corner of AZ in the heart of Pinellas, grrr.

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SunnyFl

(happ @ Oct. 27 2006,21:34)

QUOTE
55 inches within 150 days.  Several days of 5" totals   :P   Completely baffled the weather nerds since previous "strong" El Ninos were more than 15 inches less rain  :o

Voters must approve of a huge project to rebuild/strengthen the delta levees.

Do you think they will?

55 inches of rain in that amount of time is nothing short of amazing.  I wonder what caused the "weaker" EN to produce more rain like that - had to be other factors contributing to it.... gotta love a weather mystery.

Didn't this copious rain cause a lot of flooding?

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Neofolis

I still think we may be on for our hottest October on record to add to the hottest July and hottest September that we have already had this year.  The long range forecast looks like a sudden change for November though.

Date              High                 Low

------              ------                ------

Oct 28        16C/61F            14C/57F

Oct 29        15C/59F            11C/51F

Oct 30        16C/60F            11C/52F

Oct 31        13C/56F             6C/43F

Nov 1          9C/49F              3C/37F

Nov 2          9C/49F              3C/37F

Nov 3          9C/49F              3C/38F

Nov 4          11C/51F            6C/42F

Nov 5          11C/51F            6C/42F

Nov 6          11C/51F            7C/44F

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BobbyinNY

I've never seen so much wind in my life... It's been windy for 2 weeks and today is the Mother of all winds... Trees are coming down all over the place... It's a nightmare.

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SoLando

Definitely got some MUCH needed rain. Didn't last long, but it POURED like a mother....

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Trópico

HI

I just came back from Colombia, where it was a balmy 45ºF with constant rain. We were lucky on a few occasions to reach about 60ºF with partly sunny skies. I was horrified to learn that Monday and Tuesday were going to bottom down to 45ºF back up in Orlando. I left some really tropical seedlings outside on their own fate. Thinking that it was going to stay above 52ºF I did nothing to protect them. Then they kept lowering the forecast. Nothing I could do about it.

So how low did it go? Weather.com says 50ºF. Well the important thing is that today I checked on them after a week on their own and NOT ONE was lost! My C. rendas survived the ordeal!  :)

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spockvr6

(Trópico @ Oct. 28 2006,20:53)

QUOTE
HI

I just came back from Colombia, where it was a balmy 45ºF with constant rain. We were lucky on a few occasions to reach about 60ºF with partly sunny skies. I was horrified to learn that Monday and Tuesday were going to bottom down to 45ºF back up in Orlando. I left some really tropical seedlings outside on their own fate. Thinking that it was going to stay above 52ºF I did nothing to protect them. Then they kept lowering the forecast. Nothing I could do about it.

So how low did it go? Weather.com says 50ºF. Well the important thing is that today I checked on them after a week on their own and NOT ONE was lost! My C. rendas survived the ordeal!  :)

Frank-

Maybe you could check the amatuer stations on weatherunderground.com to see what a station nearest you logged?  There are quite a few in the Orlando area that report data.

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happ

(SunnyFl @ Oct. 27 2006,22:27)

QUOTE

(happ @ Oct. 27 2006,21:34)

QUOTE
55 inches within 150 days.  Several days of 5" totals   :P   Completely baffled the weather nerds since previous "strong" El Ninos were more than 15 inches less rain  :o

Voters must approve of a huge project to rebuild/strengthen the delta levees.

Do you think they will?

55 inches of rain in that amount of time is nothing short of amazing.  I wonder what caused the "weaker" EN to produce more rain like that - had to be other factors contributing to it.... gotta love a weather mystery.

Didn't this copious rain cause a lot of flooding?

Hi Sunny

More disturbing was how clueless meteorologists were to explain it.  ENSO classification was marginal yet all-time record rainfall events/totals in many areas of SoCal.

When the subtropical jet stays focused on California phenomenal rainfall occurs on the south-facing mountains : Santa Ynez/Tehachapi/San Gabriel/San Bernardino.  

Mud & landslides are widespread.  Example : residents of La Conchita beach were swallowed up by the hill above [that ironically was an avocado grove].  Boulder crashed into a house not far from me, killing a girl in her bed.    :o

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SunnyFl

(happ @ Oct. 28 2006,21:29)

QUOTE
Hi Sunny

More disturbing was how clueless meteorologists were to explain it.  ENSO classification was marginal yet all-time record rainfall events/totals in many areas of SoCal.

When the subtropical jet stays focused on California phenomenal rainfall occurs on the south-facing mountains : Santa Ynez/Tehachapi/San Gabriel/San Bernardino.  

Mud & landslides are widespread.  Example : residents of La Conchita beach were swallowed up by the hill above [that ironically was an avocado grove].  Boulder crashed into a house not far from me, killing a girl in her bed.    :o

How tragic!  And how horrifying, really - to have a boulder come smashing into a home, and in the blink of an eye, a life is snuffed out.

I've seen the pictures of some of the mud- and land-slides out there, and houses with their foundations swept out from under them, leaving them perched precariously on what remains of a hillside - looks very frightening.

Yes, it's quite disturbing if the mets couldn't explain it.  Was it a result of the position of the sub-tropical jet perhaps combined with the EN?  We've had some trouble with that configuration too (I believe this occured during 3/93), but what you describe is much worse.

Was any warning given before the record amount of rain and subsequent slides?

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happ

(SunnyFl @ Oct. 29 2006,08:48)

QUOTE

(happ @ Oct. 28 2006,21:29)

QUOTE
Hi Sunny

More disturbing was how clueless meteorologists were to explain it.  ENSO classification was marginal yet all-time record rainfall events/totals in many areas of SoCal.

When the subtropical jet stays focused on California phenomenal rainfall occurs on the south-facing mountains : Santa Ynez/Tehachapi/San Gabriel/San Bernardino.  

Mud & landslides are widespread.  Example : residents of La Conchita beach were swallowed up by the hill above [that ironically was an avocado grove].  Boulder crashed into a house not far from me, killing a girl in her bed.    :o

How tragic!  And how horrifying, really - to have a boulder come smashing into a home, and in the blink of an eye, a life is snuffed out.

I've seen the pictures of some of the mud- and land-slides out there, and houses with their foundations swept out from under them, leaving them perched precariously on what remains of a hillside - looks very frightening.

Yes, it's quite disturbing if the mets couldn't explain it.  Was it a result of the position of the sub-tropical jet perhaps combined with the EN?  We've had some trouble with that configuration too (I believe this occured during 3/93), but what you describe is much worse.

Was any warning given before the record amount of rain and subsequent slides?

Technology has greatly improved weather forecasting within the 24-48-hour time frame. Identifying conditions is widespread with stations everywhere   :P  

Seeing climate trends is less reliable.  Fairly dramatic & erratic gobal events have occurred over the past few years as Floridians well know.  Some meteorolgists are still doubting that the current ENSO will be sustained into winter   ???

Land slides, like an avalanche can happen several weeks after torrential rainfalls.  The little girl died in her sleep.      

Today is radically cooler with dew points into the 30's & rising   :D

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Neofolis

Having checked with The MET Office website they are projecting an October average of 12.8°C for England and Wales, which doesn't quite beat the record of 13.0°C.

Our cold spell starts tonight and our first frost is predicted for tomorrow night, not impressed, although I should be grateful that it has been so mild up to now.

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spockvr6

So far so good for October down here.  Short of a few cool spells and a couple of abnormally warm days, we have been running close to average.

It will be interesting to see how November goes as I have heard that November temps can sometimes provide insight into how things will go in the two months after.

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SoLando

It was still near 85 around 8pm tonight! It's either nose-drippin' cold (well..50s and 60s for me) or pina colada-drinkin' hot. Florida weather is crazy, I tell ya!!

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happ

Kinda crazy in Cali, too.  Drop from the 90's a few days ago to barely 70F today with coastal clouds.

November is considered the start of the rain season in the West though often remains dry well into Dec.  We could use some rain   :(

LA : 70/62

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spockvr6

(SoLando @ Oct. 31 2006,22:27)

QUOTE
It was still near 85 around 8pm tonight!

Where the heck are you getting these temps!?!?!?!?

The high yesterday in Orlando was only 84F and at 8PM it was 73F!

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Trópico

(spockvr6 @ Nov. 01 2006,06:31)

QUOTE

(SoLando @ Oct. 31 2006,22:27)

QUOTE
It was still near 85 around 8pm tonight!

Where the heck are you getting these temps!?!?!?!?

The high yesterday in Orlando was only 84F and at 8PM it was 73F!

I don't think it was that hot at 8 PM but I did sweat preparing the candy tables for Halloween. My A/C thermometer marked 80ºF. I had the front door open and A/C OFF.

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SoLando

(Trópico @ Nov. 01 2006,07:24)

QUOTE

(spockvr6 @ Nov. 01 2006,06:31)

QUOTE

(SoLando @ Oct. 31 2006,22:27)

QUOTE
It was still near 85 around 8pm tonight!

Where the heck are you getting these temps!?!?!?!?

The high yesterday in Orlando was only 84F and at 8PM it was 73F!

I don't think it was that hot at 8 PM but I did sweat preparing the candy tables for Halloween. My A/C thermometer marked 80ºF. I had the front door open and A/C OFF.

I was at a friend's house for a party, her thermometer outside said 84.6 (I'm guessint it's a couple degrees off..haha)! Though, it did almost get up to 90 yesterday, even in the little corner on the tv where it shows the temperature on the news channels, a few stations were showing 91. Very warm yesterday...

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Alicehunter2000

In mid 80's today and expecting temps in the upper 30's when this cold front passes. 50 degree temp swing in a couple of days. Crazy

David

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SoLando

Wow, that's cold for there!! The lowest they're forcasting here for this week is 58..on Thursday? or Friday, don't remember which day. The rest are lower 60s after the front. Upper 60s after that. Nice and warm. :)

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spockvr6

Final info for October from my yard----

FreeWX monthly summary for October 2006

There are 31 entries in the selected almanac file

covering the period 1 October to 31 October.

------------------------------------------------------------

Maximums and minimums

Maximum temperature: +91.2 °F at 14:22:00 on 21 October

Minimum temperature: +49.8 °F at 07:36:00 on 24 October

Maximum humidity: 98 % at 08:23:00 on 20 October

Minimum humidity: 23 % at 18:08:00 on 14 October

Maximum dew point: +78.8 °F at 09:06:00 on 19 October

Minimum dew point: +26.4 °F at 07:55:00 on 24 October

Minimum wind chill: +39.2 °F at 08:02:00 on 24 October

Maximum heat index: +98.1 °F at 14:41:00 on 18 October

Maximum barometric pressure: 30.18 In.Hg at 11:39:00 on 24 October

Minimum barometric pressure: 29.65 In.Hg at 05:07:00 on 28 October

Maximum wind gust: 21.5 MPH from 324° at 23:17:00 on 23 October

Maximum indoor temperature: +80.2 °F at 19:20:00 on 15 October

Minimum indoor temperature: +72 °F at 06:27:00 on 25 October

------------------------------------------------------------

Averages

Average temperature: +74.7 °F

Average maximum temperature: +83.8 °F

Average minimum temperature: +65.6 °F

Average humidity: 66 %

Average maximum humidity: 92 %

Average minimum humidity: 40 %

Average dew point: +61.1 °F

Average maximum dew point: +68.9 °F

Average minimum dew point: +53.2 °F

Average minimum wind chill: +62.4 °F

Average maximum heat index: +87.2 °F

Average barometric pressure: 29.9 In.Hg

Average maximum barometric pressure: 30 In.Hg

Average minimum barometric pressure: 29.9 In.Hg

Average indoor temperature: +75.6 °F

Average maximum indoor temperature: +77.6 °F

Average minimum indoor temperature: +73.7 °F

------------------------------------------------------------

Rainfall summary:

(Entries are for the 24 hours Midnight to Midnight on the indicated dates)

12th October - (0.87 In.)

27th October - (0.31 In.)

Number of rainfall days: 2

Maximum rainfall rate: 7.17 In./hour at 11:32:00 on 12 October

Total rainfall for October: 1.18 In.

Average of daily peak wind gusts: 14.4 MPH

Average of daily peak wind gust direction: 217°

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Neofolis

The MET Office summary for October shows that, due to a drop in temperatures over the last few days, we missed out on another record month.  Average temperature for England & Wales was 12.6°C/54.7°F, joint third highest on record, although 2005 was slightly higher.  The record was recorded on 2001 at 13.0°C/55.4°F, so it wasn't far short of a third record month in one year.  Rainfall was 33% above normal and sunshine levels very slightly below average.

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Neofolis

I understand SouthWest England is quite beautiful w/ a climate similar to PacificNW [in spite of being 4 degrees further north latitude  :cool:  Gulf Stream's influence.   Rolling green hillsides.  Photos?

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