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BobbyinNY

OCTOBER THREAD.. How's it going....

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Diane Kirkland

Don, thanks for the window into your world today -- although (arrrrggggghhhh) I'm longing  for your temps for just one day!  The palm looks SO lush.

This is the east side of my house yesterday morning as the sun was coming up.  The path is lined with filbert shells.  Just above the bench is the sidewalk and the street with the trees I posted earlier.  

When I sit on the bench in the shade, I look at the sunny south side of my house -- bananas, cannas, brugs, palms, callas, tree ferns, giant tetrapanax and dahlias with chocolate brown leaves.

post-3-1161649796_thumb.jpg

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bgl

After living in warm places for almost 30 years, I don't even OWN any warm clothes. When we travelled from Hawaii to Santo Domingo a few weeks ago for the Biennial we arrived in Philadelphia a Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. and had a nightstop there. As always, when I travel, I was dressed in shorts and an aloha shirt. When we walked around downtown Philadelphia that evening it was 62F and a cool breeze, and everybody else was obviously dressed accordingly! But the next day in the Dominican Republic it was in the 90s!! :)

I don't check the weather part of the Forum very often, because the funny part of living in the tropics is that you tend to lose interest in the weather. I get tired just reading about dew points, dry bulb and wet bulb and everything else that goes with it! The weather here is unpredictable in the sense that we (almost) never know how much rain or sun or cloudcover we're going to have a particular day. The temp is fairly even and predictable but everything else is definitely not. As a result I have stopped paying attention to the weather forecasts, because they tend to be completely useless. A particular event about 5 years ago convinced me of this. The typical weather forecast here almost always predicts "windward and mauka showers". ("Mauka" means "up towards the mountain"). This is a fairly safe prediction because showers here tend to be brief and spread out. But, this particular time, the newscaster said something I had NEVER heard before (and have never heard since, probably for a good reason): "the air around the state (of Hawaii) is extremely dry, and there is zero chance of rain tonight". That night we had 5 inches of rain! :D  And as a result I think these so called forecasters have earned the nickname "the Clueless Clowns"!

Another reason not to pay attention is that all TV news and weather forecasts come out of Honolulu, more than 200 miles away. Even though they mention the other islands briefly, it's almost never good enough to rely on. The only exception is probably when there's a major low pressure over the entire state, and it WILL rain, no matter where you happen to be!

Anyway, I'm happy not to have to be concerned about coldfronts any more...!

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amazondk

Diane,

Your yard looks great.  A very peaceful place.  The palm in the picture is a Bactris gasipaes known locally as pupunha.  The palm is in the neighbors yard looking up from our house.  I am working on a project which will hopefully transform our little back yard into a little palm oasis in the city.  I have about 8 palms from a lot we own elswhere that I am going to be moving into the back of the house. One of them a Euterpe precatoria is really looking nice.  That is once I get them root pruned and wait a while to move them.  That should coincide with the rainy season which makes things much easier in that respect.  The temperatures are milder and the we have more overcast weather, and normally quite a bit of rain.  

dk

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ruskinPalms

OK, I'll race any of you (in central FL, that is) to the 40's tonight ! and if not tonight, then definitely tomorrow night.... And the real slap in the face is that I am working in Sarasota tomorrow and I'm always so jealous as I watch my thermometer in my car climb 5 or 6 degrees on the way to work! :angry:

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amazondk

Bo,

You are very right.  There is not really much reason here to pay attention to forecasts either.  You can do just fine looking up at the sky.  It will either be sunny and hot, cloudy and hot, partly cloudy and hot and looking like it will rain, or raining.  The one thing it will never ever be is cold.  Here in Brazil the media does not pay much attention to weather either.  On the largest TV network Globo the normal forecast is given by a nice looking woman named, Rosana Jatoba,  with some new age like background music as she points out the normal temperatures around the country, which aside from a few cold fronts that hit the south are nothing of any great consequence in the world of meteorology.  She gives an pleasant presentation though, all 2 minutes of it.

Cold fronts and the like seem like a real distant reality in the everyday flow of things from this latitude.

dk

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bgl

Don,

Distant yes! So distant in fact that when I go to Sweden (always during the summer!) I tend to forget how cold it can actually be in June. When you're in shorts and a t-shirt and it's 58F and drizzle you ask yourself "how come I didn't remember this?" :D (But this year when my wife and I visited in June it was actually around 75-77F the whole time. And nice and sunny. Perfect!).

And I guess I'll add a photo as well. The light wasn't very good so I apologize for the fact that the lower part is kind of dark. Anyway, tall palms on the left are Bentinckia nicobarica, three tall palms in the distance (center) are Pigafetta elata and the taller palms on the right hand side are Clinostigma samoense. The two shorter palms in the foreground are Dypsis carlsmithii. And I took the photo more for the ambience than the details...

Bo-Göran

post-22-1161652596_thumb.jpg

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Oct. 23 2006,20:59)

QUOTE
OK, I'll race any of you (in central FL, that is) to the 40's tonight ! and if not tonight, then definitely tomorrow night....

Youre on!

Currently 67F at 929PM......even with the very low dewpoints (middle 40's F) Im not sure if theres enough time left to reach the 40's tonight, but I guess well see.

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happ

Don

Do you have an idea what the lowest recorded temp is for Manaus?

Bo

Didn't you report a coldest minimum of 57F?

Lots of people think the weather in SoCal is boring.  Local chapter of the American Meteorological Society watch thunderstorm/tornado/hurricane videos at every meeting just to get members to attend    :laugh:

Diane

Your place is very welcoming   :cool:

More heat today but nice cool down forecast for a while.  

LA : 94/65

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spockvr6

(happ @ Oct. 23 2006,21:30)

QUOTE
Don

Do you have an idea what the lowest recorded temp is for Manaus?

This site says 57F.

http://www.weatherbase.com/weather/weather...s=023328&refer=

But, I doubt this site's applicability as it also says the highest ever recorded was 100F, yet the forecast Don pasted above stated the high today was to be 107F.

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bgl

Happ,

Yes, during the 11 years we've been here, 57F/14C was our absolutely lowest temp, on a cold and clear January night several years ago. Typically, the low temp during Jan/Feb is 61-64F. Perfect sleeping weather!

Bo-Göran

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SunnyFl

(spockvr6 @ Oct. 23 2006,21:25)

QUOTE
Currently 67F at 929PM......even with the very low dewpoints (middle 40's F) Im not sure if theres enough time left to reach the 40's tonight, but I guess well see.

Our low tonight should be 56, according to the 9:53pm update.  But look what else I found  ???

Fire Weather Watch

Red Flag Warning

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SunnyFl

(Diane Kirkland @ Oct. 23 2006,20:29)

QUOTE
When I sit on the bench in the shade, I look at the sunny south side of my house -- bananas, cannas, brugs, palms, callas, tree ferns, giant tetrapanax and dahlias with chocolate brown leaves.

What a wonderful view it must be!  Tree ferns?  Ooooh - what kind?

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amazondk

Larry,

Thanks for the information and the link to the site.  I think that the lowest temperature is probably about right, but I am positive that the highest temperature is off.  I have seen it various times at  40 C /104 F or above.  I don't think it hit the forecast high yesterday.  But, it got close.  

Happ, I would say that the information Larry has of 57 F is about right.  Normally we get temperatures around 18 C / 64 F a few times a year.  That is the night time low.  It is always above 80 F in the daytime.

The forecast for today is basically the same as yesterday.  I believe that it will once again pass the 100 F mark.

Happ, you remember your question about people dying of the heat.  I never hear of that around here.  It is interesting that in some places certain conditions cause such problems and other places they do not.  Maybe it has a psycological side to it as well as physical.  Here many people walk alot during the day as they do not have cars and have to get to and from the bus stops.  And, many work places and homes do not have air conditioning.  

Personally I got a new air conditioner for the bed room as the old one broke, and I thought it was going to frost during the night.

More of the same - I wish the rains would start...

Oct24.jpg

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BobbyinNY

Ok, what did everyone in the south wake up to this morning???.... My official low recorded in my yard was 41f at 7:00am

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amazondk

Bobby,

I think I remember you saying that you got one of those plastic tube plant houses, is that right.  If so, what does the temperature in there stay like?  As you can see by the report above, nothing much different here.  But, then I am a long way south.  I just thinking living here is sort of like that movie, Ground Hog Day (I believe was the name).  Every day when you get up different things happen, but it looks a lot like the last one.    But, you do see things change as the plants grow.

dk

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spockvr6

(BobbyinNY @ Oct. 24 2006,07:43)

QUOTE
Ok, what did everyone in the south wake up to this morning???.... My official low recorded in my yard was 41f at 7:00am

Coldest of the year thus far by a long shot!  Overnight the dewpoints fell into the upper 20's!

Larry's Jungle - 49.8F  :P

Two other University of South FL stations in Tarpon Springs logged 51.X and 52.XF respecitively.  

Tampa AP - 48F

Clearwater AP - 51F

Downtown St. Petersburg - 55F

MacDill AFB (South Tampa) - 48F

Vandenberg AP (inland Tampa) - 46F

Tonight may be a few degrees colder if the forecasts are correct....

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BobbyinNY
Coldest of the year thus far by a long shot!

Larry's Jungle - 49.8F

Two other University of South FL stations in Tarpon Springs logged 51.X and 52.XF respecitively.  

Tampa AP - 48F

Clearwater AP - 51F

Downtown St. Petersburg - 55F

MacDill AFB (South Tampa) - 48F

Vandenberg AP (inland Tampa) - 46F

Tonight may be a few degrees colder if the forecasts are correct....

WOW... Larry... that's REALLY cold for your area and It's not even November yet... This cold front dipped really far south... I read that Atlanta woke up to 32f and Some parts of NC got in the mid 20's..... that's ridiculous....

But I still haven't had a frost yet.

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BobbyinNY
Bobby,

I think I remember you saying that you got one of those plastic tube plant houses, is that right.  If so, what does the temperature in there stay like?  As you can see by the report above, nothing much different here.  But, then I am a long way south.  I just thinking living here is sort of like that movie, Ground Hog Day (I believe was the name).  Every day when you get up different things happen, but it looks a lot like the last one.    But, you do see things change as the plants grow.

dk

Yeah, Don... you can see it on the winter-protection thread. I built it from 2x4's for my P. Elegans.... Right now It's staying about 3-5f higher than the outside temps..... I have a small space heater in there which will, on high, boost it about 15f higher than outside. I don't plan on keeping it growing through the winter - just in sort of a "suspended" state until spring.. probably keep it around 60f/45f respectively.

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spockvr6

(BobbyinNY @ Oct. 24 2006,08:51)

QUOTE
WOW... Larry... that's REALLY cold for your area and It's not even November yet... This cold front dipped really far south... I read that Atlanta woke up to 32f and Some parts of NC got in the mid 20's..... that's ridiculous....

But I still haven't had a frost yet.

I suspect some records might have been set....not sure.

In any case, this same thing happened last October as well and really doesnt mean much.

What will matter is where the bottom is in Dec/Jan.  These fronts are just teasers.

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BobbyinNY
What will matter is where the bottom is in Dec/Jan.  These fronts are just teasers.

I hear ya Larry..... I'm a little nervous for my Queen. It's due to be picked up on Sunday, but I'm hoping we don't drop much below 40f until then... so far, so good.

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Steve

I had to scrape my windows this morning before going to work.  I think that's the first time I've had to do that in October in the seven years I've lived here.  The reported low for my town was 34F (1C).   More of the same is forcast for tomorrow morning.  The high yesterday was only 51F (11C).  Today is only supposed to get to 56F (13C) for the high.

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BobbyinNY

Look at these CURRENT temps..... this is one COLD country..

post-57-1161698680_thumb.jpg

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spockvr6

Just for yucks, I checked the low this AM in Key West.

It was 70F.

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amazondk

Here is a look around the Americas this afternoon.

Oct24USAtemps.jpg

SAoct.jpg

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SoLando

It's about in my backyard right now.... I FROZE this morning, I could not feel my feet...3 layers of clothes and STILL cold at 57. Eek. I want 80 NOW!

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ruskinPalms

48.0 F this morning  :( . NWS has 49 predicted for a low tonight for my area, I bet I see 47 tonight.... The rest of the week looks great though anyway  :)

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happ

(amazondk @ Oct. 24 2006,07:06)

QUOTE
Larry,

Thanks for the information and the link to the site.  I think that the lowest temperature is probably about right, but I am positive that the highest temperature is off.  I have seen it various times at  40 C /104 F or above.  I don't think it hit the forecast high yesterday.  But, it got close.  

Happ, I would say that the information Larry has of 57 F is about right.  Normally we get temperatures around 18 C / 64 F a few times a year.  That is the night time low.  It is always above 80 F in the daytime.

The forecast for today is basically the same as yesterday.  I believe that it will once again pass the 100 F mark.

Happ, you remember your question about people dying of the heat.  I never hear of that around here.  It is interesting that in some places certain conditions cause such problems and other places they do not.  Maybe it has a psycological side to it as well as physical.  Here many people walk alot during the day as they do not have cars and have to get to and from the bus stops.  And, many work places and homes do not have air conditioning.  

Personally I got a new air conditioner for the bed room as the old one broke, and I thought it was going to frost during the night.

More of the same - I wish the rains would start...

Oct24.jpg

July hit us hard in California.  Normally extended periods of intense heat are accompanied by low RH/dw points/instantaneous evaporation.  The monsoon was quite active this year [even wiping out native oasis palms   :o  during extreme maximums : 100 - 120F .

Many farm workers died & naturally, the elderly.  San Joaquin valley = ground zero.

Much nicer today

LA :

80/62

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Palmy

Been pretty nice over here, temps have been in the mid to upper 70's and the lowes are in the upper 40's some frost on the roofs but not much. some of the microclimates here are colder, such as my school. there is usually frost on the roof's but at home there is little frost if any. Usually it may be 48 at my house and 42 down at school. Intresting climate none the less. I would hesitate to say its a 9a area near my school.

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Oct. 24 2006,18:47)

QUOTE
48.0 F this morning  :( . NWS has 49 predicted for a low tonight for my area, I bet I see 47 tonight.... The rest of the week looks great though anyway  :)

NWS says 48F for me and I suspect theyll not be far off.

Last night they said 50F and I was 49.8F.

Have you used the "point and click" forecast on the NWS page?  It allows you to get the forecast for your exact spot on the map, and not the generalized one for the city/zip entered.  This is very useful to me because the many times the default lat/long for the forecasts are areas closer to the water.  In my case, the default Tarpon Springs forecast is at 28.15N -82.78W (Elev. 10 ft), while I am at 28.12N -82.75W (Elev. 20 ft).  This might seem like tiny difference, but the forecasted lows are affected several degrees generally speaking.

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SunnyFl

Reality check.

No more zone denial.

This morning, it was arctic.  I put the thermom out on the deck around 6:30am and it was.... still can't believe it.... 48F!   In October!

And wind - it must have been quite strong, since as soon as it was light, I saw that my husband's heavy potted pandanus had been blown across the yard and I had to go out and fetch it.  (btw. pandanus is very thorny. trust me on this.)

Get out the palm socks - this could mean we're in for one of those winters we had in the 80's. :angry:

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ruskinPalms

I am actually no more than 1/2 mile from the center of the zip code 33570 on the map. The zip and point and click always seem to yeild the same forcast. Tonight they call for 49F. It is already 51.4F at 11:20pm tonight! Not sure how these things work out, but I still think it will easily be 46F-47F here tonight. At first glance, the geography of my location seems fairly decent: close to the bay and gulf, actually at a latitude farther south than the tip of the mainland of Pinellas; rivers, bayous and estuaries all over the place; I even live on the southeast side of a 2.5 acre pond! But, I am in a completely rural, agricultural area = huge, flat open fields everywhere around. I can now attest that urban heat islands are a big advantage. This is why people near central tampa and orlando can be 6-7 degrees warmer than me on a radiational cooling night. I can even see the pollution cap over tampa when I drive in at night. It is so ridiculously clear out here at night, even on the stickiest, most humid night in July. Just take a look at the temps reported at the Ruskin NWS office and maybe add 0.5 to 1 degree F and you have my temps. That being said, if this "South Bay" area becomes as densely populated and developed as sarasota, bradenton, or even brandon, I feel it will become a solid zone 10A west of I75, and areas west of US 41 will push close to 10B. Until then, you better live no more than a block from the bay to have long term zone 10 palms. Let's face it, Brandon is warmer now than it used to be soley based upon urban development. Coconuts and Adonidia do quite well in protected areas of Brandon but will FRY in non-urbanized areas 100 miles to the south in inland florida! Not sure where I'm going with this post, I guess I just wish I still lived in Venice 1/2 mile from the Gulf.

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Diane Kirkland
What a wonderful view it must be!  Tree ferns?  Ooooh - what kind?

Sunny, the tree ferns are Dicksonia antarctica -- my big one had some trouble last winter because it got down to 17'F.  It was wrapped up like a kid's fort during that weather and I did get new fronds but lost all of the prior year's.  

Here's some of what I can see from the bench in the picture; this was taken a few days ago and it was just POURING -- much heavier than we're used to in the Seattle area.

post-3-1161750893_thumb.jpg

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SunnyFl

(Diane Kirkland @ Oct. 25 2006,00:34)

QUOTE
Sunny, the tree ferns are Dicksonia antarctica -- my big one had some trouble last winter because it got down to 17'F.  It was wrapped up like a kid's fort during that weather and I did get new fronds but lost all of the prior year's.  

I'm amazed - I had no idea there was a tree fern that would take such cold.  How large is your big one?  These plants are so beautiful - there are some, not sure which species, at Selby Botanical Gardens - I'm surprised we don't see them planted out more often.

Here's some of what I can see from the bench in the picture; this was taken a few days ago and it was just POURING -- much heavier than we're used to in the Seattle area.
 It's such an inviting and beautiful garden - and looks more tropical than mine!  I love the massed cannas - the variegated foliage on yours is especially nice.

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Oct. 24 2006,23:22)

QUOTE
actually at a latitude farther south than the tip of the mainland of Pinellas;

Bill-

I think central/south Pinellas' main advantage is the fact that there are huge bodies of water on both sides, not just one like on the east Bay of Tampa.

In Tarpon Springs, I have only have water on one side (the Gulf), so the temp naturally drops off some on the cold nights.

The NWS graphics show this pretty clearly.

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spockvr6

(ruskinPalms @ Oct. 24 2006,23:22)

QUOTE
Tonight they call for 49F. It is already 51.4F at 11:20pm tonight! Not sure how these things work out, but I still think it will easily be 46F-47F here tonight.

I was thinking the same thing before going to bed last night, but dang if the temps didnt hold steady all night.  At 7AM, its 52.0F.

The bottom in my yard was 50.7F at 606AM.  I was expecting 46-47F as you were.

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SunnyFl

The reading on the thermom outdoors is better than yesterday.  It showed 53F, same as St. Pete/Clw airport.

Albert Whitted, at 5:53, was 64!  How strange - in past years, we've been as little as 2 or 3 degrees lower, but last night and the night before, much lower.  I do not like this.

According to NOAA radio, the official overnight low for the Bay area  (TIA? MacDill?) was 49 - only 5F higher than the all-time low recorded in 1891 - and 17F lower than normal.

It really feels more like a late Nov or Dec pattern, with these cold temps and fronts coming down one after another.  The Red Flag Warnings are still in effect as well.

What a difference from last October - when we were watching tropical weather systems, specifically Wilma, which landfell at Naples a year ago yesterday, and went on to wreak havoc on S. FL.  And through the following January, tropical storms continued to be the focus.  No sign of tropical troubles this October, and our attention is turned more to fronts from the north and the chill in the overnight hours.

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BobbyinNY

41.7f in my yard at 6:30am this morning.... not looking good :(

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ruskinPalms

Low in my backyard today was 45.9F :o  Somtimes I wonder if this thermometer is reading a little low. Two personal stations in Sun City Center to the east of me had lows of 50.9F and 48.6F, a personal station in Apollo Beach had a low of 49.8F, and one on outlying Ellenton had 48.7F. I know I am splitting hairs of over a couple of degrees, but that could be a big difference if the NWS forcasts 36F for my area. Remember, they said it would only be 49F here tonight!

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BobbyinNY
Low in my backyard today was 45.9F   Somtimes I wonder if this thermometer is reading a little low. Two personal stations in Sun City Center to the east of me had lows of 50.9F and 48.6F, a personal station in Apollo Beach had a low of 49.8F, and one on outlying Ellenton had 48.7F. I know I am splitting hairs of over a couple of degrees, but that could be a big difference if the NWS forcasts 36F for my area. Remember, they said it would only be 49F here tonight!

Absolutely... I feel the same way..... They're forecasting 38f for tomorrow night in my backyard, and I'm really worried because it's usually 3-4f lower than they predict.. I wish they would err on the low side.

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spockvr6

Bill-

Short of that icewater test I mentioned, try taking a few different thermometers and place them all together and see how closely they read.  This crude test will at least increase the odds the thermometer you are using for your "official" readings is at least close.  

What I have also done with my weather station is borrowed an good quality calibrated hand held meter from work and compared the readings.  My weather station actually reads a bit lower (between 0.5-1.0F) than the calibrated meter at all the temps I have tested it at, but I have not worried about it. At least it does not read falsely high, which would mislead me in the wrong direction!

The other thing to check is the height at which you are making measurements.  If your sensor is close to the ground, and the other amateur stations you are comparing to are way up, you can easily see the differentials you mentioned.  This is whats hard about comparing amatuer stations....one doesnt know how or where the sensor is installed.

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