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BobbyinNY

OCTOBER THREAD.. How's it going....

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spockvr6

(syersj @ Oct. 11 2006,23:22)

QUOTE
Should be a refreshing cool front.  Is it going to make it through Florida too?

I thought it was supposed to, but it looks like it might be petering out if the NWS forecast as of this AM is correct.

forecast-2.jpg

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BobbyinNY
." I absolutely HATE cold. This morning was a nice, comfortable 70. I don't like anything below that. 70 degrees is my freezing point.

I'm with ya, Jen.... I feel exactly the same. Unfortunately, we're not so lucky up here.. Our forecast for a low is 46f tonight and 41f tomorrow night... :(

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Trópico

The coldest will be the Saturday low, 58F (14C).

Weather.com is predicting 58F as well for Tarpon Springs, spockvr6.

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spockvr6

(Trópico @ Oct. 12 2006,09:31)

QUOTE
The coldest will be the Saturday low, 58F (14C).

Weather.com is predicting 58F as well for Tarpon Springs, spockvr6.

I hadnt checked weather.com yet, but I wonder why NWS and weather.com are so far apart?

I generally watch both of these forecasts (I used to watch Accuweather.com but they seem to be way off most of the time) and what usually happens is that the NWS forecasted low is too high for my yard and the weather.com forecast is too low.  But, there is usually not an 8 degree differential between these two!

The forecasters will "jockey" their numbers around anyway as the front gets closer.  They do it all the time.  When the low is about 5 minutes off, they all change their numbers to make themselves look good! LOL.

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spockvr6

Heres the weather.com forecast....quite a bit different than NWS!

forecast2.jpg

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spockvr6

And heres forecast 3 from weatherunderground.com---

forecast3.jpg

I guess we shall see who is correct!

My station logs data here---

Observed at: Harbor Oaks - Alternate US 19, Tarpon Springs, Florida

Historical data is also shown if one clicks on, "Station's History".  

Weather in Larry's Yard

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BobbyinNY
The forecasters will "jockey" their numbers around anyway as the front gets closer.  They do it all the time.  When the low is about 5 minutes off, they all change their numbers to make themselves look good! LOL.

Larry, you are SOOOOOOO right.... I've had it happen first hand - and, for me, this could be catastrophic as 5-8f lower could be devastating. I'm taking off work tomorrow to figure out a way to temporarily protect my queen and P. Elegans that are way too big to bring indoors. The guy who picks them up and brings them to the greenhouse for me doesn't come till the last weekend in October.. This type of cold is VERY rare - this is more like late november for us.  I'm NOT a happy camper :(

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NBTX11

(syersj @ Oct. 11 2006,23:22)

QUOTE
We have the first "severe" cold front sweeping thru Texas tomorrow night.  Supposed to have a low of 55F Thursday night, with highs "only" around 70F on Friday.  Avg high is still 84F.  But back in the upper 80s after the weekend.  Should be a refreshing cool front.  Is it going to make it through Florida too?

Now they are saying it will only get down to 64F tonight, with a high of 81F tomorrow.  I guess the front died out before it got here.  Sometime within the next month a real cold front will make it through, I am sure.

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amazondk

Here on the equator the average daily temperatures have been pretty much like the ones for today since May, give or take a few degrees.  It looks like we are transtioning into the rainy season and hopefully there will be more clouds and rain soon.  

Larry, how do you put the web page images into the text box?

Thanks, dk

Thursday

Hot and very humid with times of sun and clouds

High Temperature: 97° F

RealFeel®:

105° F

Click here for the Hourly Forecast

Winds: SSW at 7 mph

Wind Gusts: 18 mph

Maximum UV: Very High (8)

Thunderstorm Probability: 10%

Amount of Precipitation: 0.00 in

Amount of Rain: 0.00 in

Amount of Snow: 0 in

Hours of Precipitation: 0 hrs

Hours of Rain: 0 hrs

Thursday Night

Rather cloudy and humid; windy late with a stray thunderstorm

Low Temperature: 76° F

RealFeel®:

82° F

Click here for the Hourly Forecast

Winds: SSW at 17 mph

Wind Gusts: 34 mph

Maximum UV: N/A

Thunderstorm Probability: 48%

Amount of Precipitation: 0.01 in

Amount of Rain: 0.01 in

Amount of Snow: 0 in

Hours of Precipitation: 1 hrs

Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

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SoLando

(Trópico @ Oct. 12 2006,07:05)

QUOTE

(SunnyFl @ Oct. 11 2006,21:16)

QUOTE
From everything I've been reading, it certainly seems an EN is forming, and perhaps not as weak as they thought.  Interesting to think that moderate to strong EN's might coincide with severe wx that usually involves tornados.

I honestly believe that - at least here - a strong EN plays a causal role:  looking back to the EN in '92-93 and the March storm that sping, then the very strong EN that coincided with the terrible Central FL outbreak in Feb. '98, and the lesser tornadic activity that year.  Gotta wonder.

A tornado hit several homes a few miles from me (Apopka).

Yep.    Learned that in Spanish class a few years ago to learn the vowels (it rhymes) A E I O U Un burro sabe mas que tu. Haha. One of my favorite quotes still.

I learned that one too! Slightly different: A E I O Uuuu, Mas sabe el burro que tuuuu!!!

I remember all those tornadoes. We went driving around looking at the damage and thinking how lucky we were. A couple weeks ago, there were a few tornadoes I think a little south of Orlando, closer to Kissimmee. Major hailstorms from here to Brevard. Did some damage...this year could be a '98 repeat......

..The Spanish world is a small one! Well.....sort of. Haha.

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spockvr6

(amazondk @ Oct. 12 2006,15:38)

QUOTE
Larry, how do you put the web page images into the text box?

Very crudely.

I do a CONTROL - PRINT SCREEN, then merely paste the screen image into an image editor (MS Paint works fine)and save it as a bmp/jpg, etc.  

The image is then uploaded to a photo hosting service (like Photobucket) and the image link posted here

Its sounds tedious, but takes literally 15 seconds all told.

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happ

(amazondk @ Oct. 12 2006,15:38)

QUOTE
Here on the equator the average daily temperatures have been pretty much like the ones for today since May, give or take a few degrees.  It looks like we are transtioning into the rainy season and hopefully there will be more clouds and rain soon.  

Larry, how do you put the web page images into the text box?

Thanks, dk

Thursday

Hot and very humid with times of sun and clouds

High Temperature: 97° F

RealFeel®:

105° F

Click here for the Hourly Forecast

Winds: SSW at 7 mph

Wind Gusts: 18 mph

Maximum UV: Very High (8)

Thunderstorm Probability: 10%

Amount of Precipitation: 0.00 in

Amount of Rain: 0.00 in

Amount of Snow: 0 in

Hours of Precipitation: 0 hrs

Hours of Rain: 0 hrs

Thursday Night

Rather cloudy and humid; windy late with a stray thunderstorm

Low Temperature: 76° F

RealFeel®:

82° F

Click here for the Hourly Forecast

Winds: SSW at 17 mph

Wind Gusts: 34 mph

Maximum UV: N/A

Thunderstorm Probability: 48%

Amount of Precipitation: 0.01 in

Amount of Rain: 0.01 in

Amount of Snow: 0 in

Hours of Precipitation: 1 hrs

Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

Don

Thanks for the climate data.  The "true" tropics   :P

Can you provide relative humidity & dew point readings, please ?  :D

Bobby

What were your readings in New York today?  Hang in there.

Staying cool in Cali:

San Francisco : 67/52

Los Angeles : 76/58

San Diego : 71/59

Thunderstorms forecast tomorrow night.  Believe it when I see it   ???

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SunnyFl

(spockvr6 @ Oct. 11 2006,21:40)

QUOTE
I hate to be nitpicky, but yesterday's lows were actually the following---

.

Hm, I wrote down the 7am temps from NOAA radio.   Maybe your temps were earlier or maybe the ones I wrote down were from Monday (could've sworn it was from Tues tho).

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SunnyFl

(Trópico @ Oct. 12 2006,07:05)

QUOTE
A tornado hit several homes a few miles from me (Apopka).

Yikes, Tropico, right near your house?  Was this part of the '98 outbreak?

Just snuck a peak at our forecast for the weekend - should be very nice (just in time for the USF sale) - highs on Sat/Sun around 84, low on Sat. night 69 and on Sunday 71.  It'll be a lot more pleasant than it was during their last sale - sometime in the summer, it was quite hot.

Larry, how do you get those NWS forecasts into your posts - I tried copying to Paint but it wouldn't work - kept telling me to "enlarge the text box" but I couldn't.

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amazondk

Happ,

Here is the weather information for today in Manaus.  I did not get the image totally uploaded right, but for now it is the best I could do.  It is going to be a scorcher today.  We had a strong thunderstorm during the night, but it did not bring the temperature down much.  The dewpoint is shown here.

dk

FridayOct13.jpg

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amazondk

Here is what we have in store for the next few days here in the humid tropics.  The one thing that is certain, the only frost in sight is in the freezer.

dk

ForecastMAO.jpg

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amazondk

Here is the extended forecast for the end of the month of October.  Winter is finally arriving on the Amazon River.  Well, technically we are going into the summer season since we are 3 degrees south latitude.  But, here winter is the rainy season and if the forecast holds we should be seeing the effect by the end of October.  From November through May the temperatures reflected here are more or less the norm, with some days hotter.  It looks like we are getting a cold spell around the 27th.

dk

Maofutureforecast23to27Oct.jpg

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SoLando

acttemp_600x405.jpg

Looks like Florida is back to being the only "red" state. And the only one with a heat index too.....

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spockvr6

(SoLando @ Oct. 13 2006,12:14)

QUOTE
Looks like Florida is back to being the only "red" state. And the only one with a heat index too.....

Lets hope it stays like this all winter!

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spockvr6

That just reminded me of one time a few years back when I went to Maine for Christmas.  It was warmer there than in FL!

It was ridiculous!

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SoLando

It looks like the coastal parts of Maine are warmer than parts of the Carolinas and Tennesse!

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elHoagie

Don,

I'm amazed at the variation in temperature from day to day.  I've always thought of equatorial climates as being more consistent.  I guess it's just because you have a continental equatorial climate instead of a maritime one?

Jack

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spockvr6

(SoLando @ Oct. 13 2006,12:36)

QUOTE
It looks like the coastal parts of Maine are warmer than parts of the Carolinas and Tennesse!

Id say that relationship is not likely to hold consistently :D

I believe tonight may bring a hard freeze to most parts of Maine.

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amazondk

Jack,

I imagine you are right about the temperature range here.  Although we have a lot of water around, which probably modifies the tempertures locally in places, the main impact is from the continental landmass.  Here in Manaus we suffer from a heat island effect.  In the country the night temperatures tend to be a bit cooler as well.  

dk

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NBTX11

(spockvr6 @ Oct. 13 2006,12:32)

QUOTE
That just reminded me of one time a few years back when I went to Maine for Christmas.  It was warmer there than in FL!

It was ridiculous!

What part of FL.  I have a very hard time believing Maine is ever warmer than South Florida, except for maybe a couple days during a summer heat wave.  The panhandle I could see getting colder for a very, very brief time

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NBTX11

(SoLando @ Oct. 13 2006,12:14)

QUOTE
acttemp_600x405.jpg

Looks like Florida is back to being the only "red" state. And the only one with a heat index too.....

Not really.

Here is the 5 day forecast for San Antonio, after a brief cool down last night to about 60F.  Sorry I don't know how to paste the web page like some people.

Saturday  80°/72°

Sunday    82°/73°

Monday    88°/72°

Tuesday   86°/74°

Wed.        90°/69°

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spockvr6

(syersj @ Oct. 13 2006,18:00)

QUOTE
What part of FL.  I have a very hard time believing Maine is ever warmer than South Florida, except for maybe a couple days during a summer heat wave.  The panhandle I could see getting colder for a very, very brief time

It was the Tampa Bay area.

I recall it being in the low 50's around Tampa and warmer than that in Maine when I was there.

Also, the record highs in Maine surpass those in South FL.  Most areas of Maine have logged over 100F as records and I dont think official stations in South FL (like Miami, Ft. Laud, etc) have ever logged a 100F temp.  Tampa AP has likewise never logged 100F.

Of course, these are discussions just for fun as it obviously that the normal climates of these locations are not even remotely comparable!

As a hammer it home example of this, much of Maine is getting a good hard freeze tonight, with some locations forecast as low as 24-25F.  I dont think that is happening anywhere in FL tonight :D

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spockvr6

(syersj @ Oct. 13 2006,18:00)

QUOTE
What part of FL.  I have a very hard time believing Maine is ever warmer than South Florida, except for maybe a couple days during a summer heat wave.  The panhandle I could see getting colder for a very, very brief time

It was the Tampa Bay area.

I recall it being in the low 50's around Tampa and warmer than that in Maine when I was there.

Also, the record highs in Maine surpass those in South FL.  Most areas of Maine have logged over 100F as records and I dont think official stations in South FL (like Miami, Ft. Laud, etc) have ever logged a 100F temp.  Tampa AP has likewise never logged 100F.

Of course, these are discussions just for fun as it obviously that the normal climates of these locations are not even remotely comparable!

As a hammer it home example of this, much of Maine is getting a good hard freeze tonight, with some locations forecast as low as 24-25F.  I dont think that is happening anywhere in FL tonight :D

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NBTX11

Tampa is usually a full 40 to 50 degrees warmer than maine in winter, sometimes more.

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happ

(amazondk @ Oct. 13 2006,14:46)

QUOTE
Jack,

I imagine you are right about the temperature range here.  Although we have a lot of water around, which probably modifies the tempertures locally in places, the main impact is from the continental landmass.  Here in Manaus we suffer from a heat island effect.  In the country the night temperatures tend to be a bit cooler as well.  

dk

Don

Those equator temperatures & humidity are deadly to the mid-latitudes.  Over 100 people died of heat stroke in California last July with temperatures of 119 in LA/San Fernando.  Humidity/dew points were at least 10 degrees lower than Manaus.  Similar comfort levels.  How do people in Amazonia handle it?  :o

Weak showers overhead

San Francisco : 62/54

Los Angeles : 76/64

San Diego : 70/64

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bgl

Don,

you'd better get prepared and bring out your mittens for that cold night that's predicted for Oct 27th...! :D

Reminds me of a funny, and true story. Once, or twice, a year our local Palm Society Chapter (HIPS) puts in a work-day at the Hilo Zoo (actually, more like half a day). Plants palms, fertilizes them, etc. In early Dec 1995 when I was in the process of moving here, we had one of those work days, and it happened to be on one of those rare days during the winter when it's overcast, windy, cool and with some rain, and the termperature typically doesn't go above 70F or so. This is (more or less) how our local HIPS newsletter reported the event:

"Last Saturday, a group of HIPS volunteers met at the Zoo in near arctic conditions with the temperature around 70F and worked for several hours, planting palms and fertilizing them."

So, now you all know the definition of "arctic"!

Bo-Göran

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happ

(bgl @ Oct. 13 2006,23:51)

QUOTE
Don,

you'd better get prepared and bring out your mittens for that cold night that's predicted for Oct 27th...! :D

Reminds me of a funny, and true story. Once, or twice, a year our local Palm Society Chapter (HIPS) puts in a work-day at the Hilo Zoo (actually, more like half a day). Plants palms, fertilizes them, etc. In early Dec 1995 when I was in the process of moving here, we had one of those work days, and it happened to be on one of those rare days during the winter when it's overcast, windy, cool and with some rain, and the termperature typically doesn't go above 70F or so. This is (more or less) how our local HIPS newsletter reported the event:

"Last Saturday, a group of HIPS volunteers met at the Zoo in near arctic conditions with the temperature around 70F and worked for several hours, planting palms and fertilizing them."

So, now you all know the definition of "arctic"!

Bo-Göran

Bo-Goran

Have you ever recorded a temperature below 50F/10C?  Or above 100F/38C?

What is your elevation/proximity to the Pacific?  

Aloha  :cool:

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amazondk

Bo,

That sounds like a real cold spell for Hawaii.  I will get out my winter gear, if I can find any for the coming winter season here.  As to record temperatures I do not know the offical ones, but I have seen it get to 17 C at the coldest at night, and 40 + C plus in the daytime.  We have these street temperture and time signs scattered around town, and the other day I saw one at 39 C.  The official weather data is from the airport which is on the outskirts of town so the information does not reflect what it is like downtown, whicih is always hotter.   We are at approximately 3 degrees S. Lat. and 60 W. Long.  The altitude is approximately 100 meters above sea level.  I am not sure exactly how far we are from the Pacific, but I would say around 1800 kms and over some real high mountains.

Happ,

I know what you mean.  I find it interesting when the heat waves hit temperate climates and all sorts of people die.  Here no one seems to feel it much.  The majority of the houses in Manaus do not have air conditioning and people generally make out using fans to keep it more comfortable for sleeping.  When I saw that 17 C temperature some years ago I did hear that a few people died from the cold though.  As far as handling the heat, cold beer helps.

Here is the average weather data I found on a BBC site.

dk

Manausaveragetemps.jpg

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spockvr6

(syersj @ Oct. 13 2006,23:09)

QUOTE
Tampa is usually a full 40 to 50 degrees warmer than maine in winter, sometimes more.

"Of course, these are discussions just for fun as it obviously that the normal climates of these locations are not even remotely comparable!

"

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amazondk

Now that I have learned how to paste images into the thread I hope you folks up north don't get tired of seeing the scene from down south (thank you Larry for the help.).  I promise I won't put too much information up.  For reference sake I put in a South American map of weather throughout the area.  It looks like Manaus is on the cool side.  We are 1 hour behind most of Brazil though, so it will warm up.

Bo, here is the forecast for today, 40 C or 104 F, I am sure you don't see much of that over there.  

SouthAmericanWeatherOct.jpg

The day ahead in Manaus

Manaus14Oct.jpg

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bgl

Don and Happ,

No, we've never experienced 40C here! We've been here for 11 years now, and the coldest winter night during that time was 57F/14C. The warmest summer afternoon right around 87F/30.5C. Elevation is 880 ft/270 m. and the Pacific Ocean is around 4.5-5 miles/7-8 km away. Cool tradewinds from the NE about 85-90% of the time make it feel somewhat cooler.

Bo-Göran

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amazondk

Bo,

You truly live in a special place.  Although for the most part it is either hot with rain or hotter without rain around here it is surprising how cold one can get when out on a river in an open outboard boat in a rainstorm.  If you are not wearing rain gear it gets real miserable.    As you can see from the information 87F/30C is about as cold as it gets in the daytime.  

dk

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happ

(amazondk @ Oct. 14 2006,10:00)

QUOTE
Now that I have learned how to paste images into the thread I hope you folks up north don't get tired of seeing the scene from down south (thank you Larry for the help.).  I promise I won't put too much information up.  For reference sake I put in a South American map of weather throughout the area.  It looks like Manaus is on the cool side.  We are 1 hour behind most of Brazil though, so it will warm up.

Bo, here is the forecast for today, 40 C or 104 F, I am sure you don't see much of that over there.  

SouthAmericanWeatherOct.jpg

The day ahead in Manaus

Manaus14Oct.jpg

Don

Surprised by the cooler nights than one would assume with such high humidity/dew point temps & near sea level [7'/2.20m] elevation [Manuas airport].  Makes it much more comfortable.   :cool:

Poor luck put LA in the middle of outer rotating storms.  Friend in San Diego/Tierra Santa mesa measured over an inch.  Flash flood/mud slide watch in northern mts but a mere 0.05 here  :(  

NSW-LA 10-14-06 09:15AM

UPPER LOW OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND MOVING EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE

ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH THE MAXIMUM

CURRENTLY SKIRTING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA

COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ALL NIGHT WITH

ONE PARTICULARLY LARGE TSTM OFF SANTA CATALINA IS.  DROPPING A WATERSPOUT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN

VERY VARIABLE ALTHOUGH MOSTLY ON THE LITE SIDE DUE TO THE LIMITED

MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

T 64 DP 55 RH 72 CALM 29.87S      

P 0.05 Rain Year[july-june] 0.10

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amazondk

I figured it would be good to have a world perspective, well at least that part of the world where the majority of the people in this forum live.  Unfortunately Hawaii did not show up.

dk

USweather14oct.jpg

SouthAmericanWeatherOct-2.jpg

Australiaweather14Oct.jpg

EuropeOct.jpg

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