Not so palmy in Arizona

[chris78]

I am freezing my a... off in a hotel in Flagstaff,  Arizona. It 47F outside on this Sept moring.. There already some fall color and not a palm tree in site. When I left my Phoenix garden last night it was a warm 82F.. Flagstaff is only 140 miles from Phoenix, but at 7000' elev.

[happ]

Chris

47F sounds delightful!

You're right.  At 7000' Flagstaff isn't palm tree territory, but is scenic Arizona second only to Sedona as the center of a paradise   .  Are those aspens in the foreground?

It's fantastic that this summer's monsoon has helped replenished the ground water & reservoirs so critical for survival in the Southwest.  Hopefully coastal California will get a taste of tropical depression "John" before it exits east.  Some big boomers in the San Bernardino/San Gabriel mts yesterday but only a spike in humidity for Los Angeles/San Diego. Phoenix will be very wet this week.  ::

Any idea what your summer rainfall stats are?

[chris78]

Happ

The trees in the foreground are honeylocust, Gleditsia sp.... and are one of the first trees to show fall color..aspens turn sometime in Oct from early to late depending on elevation.

Rainfall this summer has been good. Some areas around Flagstaff got as much as 7 to 8 inches in Aug but most areas got 2 to 4 inches... some areas in the Phoenix area got 2 to 4 inches and other less.... summer rains are spotty but been good in most parts of the state.

[Steve in Brookings]

I can see my old dorm in that photo!  Go Lumberjacks!

[SoLando]

For me in weather below 70 (search "snowman," "jackfrost," or "snow angel").

[chris78]

First freeze warning for the season in AZ.....Burrr..... fall is really here now.....

PS its common for the high country to get it first frost in the middle or end of Sept...  Last night low in my Phoenix area garden was 65F

FREEZE WARNING

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ

420 AM MST SAT SEP 16 2006

AZZ004-006-011-015>017-039-161930-

/O.NEW.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.060917T0700Z-060917T1500Z/

KAIBAB PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-

CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-

EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-BLACK MESA AREA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA..

GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO..

FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...HEBER...HAPPY JACK..

FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...NAVAJO N.M.

420 AM MST SAT SEP 16 2006

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MST

SUNDAY..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MST

SUNDAY.

VERY DRY AIR OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WINDS

OVERNIGHT...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW

FREEZING ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY.

THESE CONDITIONS CAN DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[happ]

2 days straight of 70's in LA.  Recorded 58F minimum today [coolest night since May] though a quick warm up starts this weekend.

Pattern looks cooler than normal/clouds interspersed with warm/dry periods though models differ on the details.  Hurricane off Baja could be a player later in the week.  

[tropicalb]

I hear ya Happ...gettin' cold at night down here in san diego too...55 last night in my lil greenhouse with no heat....and my newly rooted cycas debaoensis decided to wait until NOW to throw its first leaf....

[chris78]

The top of the mts have some snow now..... Was up there last week when it was snowing at the ski resort, which is over 9,000 ft.... It was nice to see the aspens in full glory as the snow was falling...

It was still in the 80's in Phoenix so my palms were safe and warm...

[happ]

(chris78 @ Oct. 17 2006,22:26)

QUOTE

The top of the mts have some snow now..... Was up there last week when it was snowing at the ski resort, which is over 9,000 ft.... It was nice to see the aspens in full glory as the snow was falling...

It was still in the 80's in Phoenix so my palms were safe and warm...

Beautiful shot, Chris  

Today was probably the last of a 4-day period of remarkably cool temps:

San Francisco : 69/52

Los Angeles : 74/62

San Diego : 67/62

[Gaston in Argentina]

(Steve in Brookings @ Sep. 06 2006,03:48)

QUOTE

I can see my old dorm in that photo!  Go Lumberjacks!

Steve

I see your avatar. in 1992 i had the same tucano you show, bring it from Bolivia :-)

[chris78]

Last night we got the first snow of the season in northern Arizona.... Hope the ski resort opens soon.....

How often does Flagstaff have snow for the holidays?

Most people think of white snowy scenes with snow gently falling from the sky when picturing the typical weather during Christmas. But how often does this occur in reality? Over the last thirty years (1970-1999), Flagstaff has recorded snowfall on the ground at Christmas 53% of the time (16/30 years). It has actually snowed on 40% of the last thirty Christmas days (12/30 years). However, seven of those days recorded only a trace of snow, or flurries. How does this compare with other locations in the United States?

The table below shows the historical probability of snow on the ground on Christmas Day at many cities in the United States as compiled over the last thirty years from the National Climatic Data Center.

Location Historical Probability of snow

on the ground for Christmas Day

Albuquerque, NM 3%

Prescott, AZ 10%

New York City, NY 10%

Washington, DC 13%

Winslow, AZ 20%

Reno, NV 20%

Boise, ID 30%

Chicago, IL 40%

Denver, CO 50%

Salt Lake City, UT 53%

Flagstaff, AZ 53%

Great Falls, MT 57%

Madison, WI 67%

Minneapolis, MN 73%

Blue Canyon, CA 74%

Lander, WY 77%

Portland, ME 83%

Bismarck, ND 87%

Wausau, WI 93%

Montpelier, VT 93%

Barrow, AK 100%

Marquette, MI 100%

Is it snowier on any other holidays at Flagstaff?

When tabulated over the last fifty years the historical probability of snowfall being on the ground at Christmas is around 48% for Flagstaff. The probability of it actually snowing on Christmas Day is around 28%. What about at other times of the year?

Holiday Historical Probability of

snow on the ground Historical Probability of

snowfall occurring Most amount of snow

on the ground Year

Christmas Day 48% 28% 44 inches 1967

New Years Day 54% 24% 28 inches 1968

Valentine's Day 52% 30% 18 inches 1978

St. Patrick's Day 38% 22% 29 inches 1973

April Fool's Day 40% 34% 31 inches 1973

Based on this data, it appears that New Year's Day is the best holiday for having snow on the ground, while April Fool's Day is the preferred holiday for it to actually snow on. So if you wake up on April Fool's Day with a picture like this outside your window, it may not be a joke.

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