WEATHER / CLIMATE
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This thread is to discuss potential Florida freezes during the heart of winter this January through February 2021. At the moment, it is looking like the polar vortex over the north pole will be broken up and possibly swing farther south as guidance and computer models are showing this possibility around Mid January. Not trying to incite doom- just a trend to watch right now as much can still change. These are meteorologists I follow on Twitter who are knowledgeable on the subject.
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I just thought I should have this dam title here and ready for tomorrow.... As I sit here listening to the wind howling, (with up to 40mph predicted today) and forecasts of 29 on Friday night and 26 and 27 on sun and Monday night..
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I don't know what happened as the forecast was much warmer yesterday. Again, the two GFS models are not on the same page with the NAM model somewhat warmer than the MAV. Per the NWS GFS model, forecast lows for Wednesday morning January 21. Tampa 33F St. Petersburg 36F Miami 44F Orlando 32F Ft. Lauderdale 42F West Palm Beach 38F Ft. Myers 36F
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So far, so good here.... Forecast for mid-high 70'sf day, mid 50's - low 60's night and very little rain.
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I figured with a cool down already happening and forecast to continue into the rest of October this is more relevant than October would suggest. My forecast high next Tuesday is 72 and that's not far off from "winter". El nino is making an appearance too, so the peninsula already has a severe weather threat with the current system. Models are forecasting the whole eastern US as cooler than average again for the month. My hope is that the pattern does not set up to be cold and cloudy all winter but I'll take clouds if it means no freezes this season. What does everyone do to prepare for an El nino winter, if anything?
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Keep your head on a swivel (as Ron Burgundy suggests). More talk of the cold stuff coming down yet again. From NWS: "....A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BY FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AIRMASS COULD BE COLDER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AS CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR FUTURE RUNS TO CONFIRM THE COLDER SCENARIO." Ray
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Spoiled by November warmth, off to a chilly start with lows in the very low 40's. This 80's weather is over, so enjoy the last few remaining hours
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After a warm October, this morning it was 2°C/36°F, but many places were predicting a freeze here, so I guess I should be happy with that. It is probably the end of the growing season for this year, although it will be interesting to see if my Musa sikkimensis stops straight away, as it has still been growing at a reasonable speed until now. We are forecast sub zero temperatures for the next two nights, so I would be surprised to see anymore growth, especially as the daytime temperatures are also supposed to be quite low. I mulched most of the outside plants yesterday, due to the forecast, so hopefully everything will cope OK, although it may come as a bit of a shock…
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OK, it is officially winter here, and it will be a northern summer in a couple of weeks I guess? The weather has been nice here, with some rainy days, some sunny, and warmish nights and warm days...I certainly can't complain. I hope this continues for another 8-10 weeks... How is everyone's season shaping up? Daryl
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In recent years southern England, Western France, Belgium and the Netherlands have experienced pretty bad droughts from April - August, and this year is on course for the same again. That will be the 3rd consecutive year that this has happened. It's extremely dry here already. The ground is totally parched and it is dust down to about an inch. My last measurable rainfall was over 3 weeks ago now and that was only 0.04 inches. In total I have only received 0.31 inches of rainfall over the past 10 weeks. There certainly doesn't appear to be any rainfall on the horizon either, which begs the question of how long will this current drought last? Until July? August? Septe…
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Mid November looks a bit chilly if the models are correct! Looks a bit suspicious getting that cold this early.
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Some scary stuff in the forecast for the midwest coming up, looking like the type of stuff that showed up in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow". Snow is falling now during the Summer in the highlands of NSW and Victoria in Australia: Here is the latest sun spot activity in what is supposed to be a maximum: What the heck? Are we off to a mini ice age?
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I just copied what was important "8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007: THE COLD PATTERN FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEEK 2. IF THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN VERIFIES... THEN RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA."
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I get this email about once a week since, unlike other weather blogs, there is usually some stuff for us west coasters. I got this today. Doesn't mention freeze but I thought I should post it nonetheless. This is from WeatherAmerica.
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Hi all, I have seen several growing zone maps from all these different sources over the years and yet, none has felt right for my area. Most recently, there was a map posted over on the CFPACS board that really blew it for the Tampa Bay area. So, I decided to make my own zone map! No, it is not based upon any kind of hard data only empirical evidence of what is seen growing in the Bay area and a little bit of "gut feeling". I think this could be a fun project for many people to try to do if they want to make a very localized zone map outlining suspected and known micro climates - hot and cold. It would be cool to dedicate a sub forum, not unlike the freeze forum to custom…
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I didnt quite realize how popular these threads were until this year, so here we are! "Happy" Hurricane Season. We will start off with the forecast for the season, and what we currently have going on out there right now. The forecast from just about every agency or group that puts out a seasonal forecast is calling for an ABOVE AVERAGE season this year. Colorado State University put out their forecast calling for 19 named storms, 9 of those being hurricanes, and 4 being major hurricanes. NOAA has also put out their forecast, and they are calling for 14-21 named storms, 6-10 of those being hurricanes, and 3-6 of those hurricanes being major hurricanes. The a…
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I thought I’d start a new topic seeing that we technically are no longer in winter. However September down here still feels like winter but with some warm days stuck in amongst the wet cold weather. It’s actually quite a teaser really, especially after such a wet winter. I’m waiting for the place to dry out but have already started planting new things out, some R sapida, Archontophoenix and Pandanus furcatus and Ficus macrophylla. But winter is dragging its heels and I’ve lost or am losing things to root rot. I’ve got water pooling in areas that were basically bone dry in winters past. Just gotta learn from the experience I suppose.
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This thread is to discuss the possibility of a Florida freeze in the month of December 2020. Mike’s Weather Page posted the below graph on Facebook earlier today of forecast low temperatures for December 26th: If this plays out, much of central and north Florida will see their first freeze this winter. Forecast accuracy 9 days out is notoriously poor so at this juncture it’s just something to keep an eye on.
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This upcoming January 14-16th event is looking more and more like the December 2022 event. Although along the coast they are predicting rain, we are forecasted to be dry through then. I’m seeing 17-19°F predicted in Central Texas Monday night, currently, but based on the last few years will assume it will drop further. Dallas may see 12°F or lower.
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Well I thought I'd start this thread as no one else was going too. It's summer in the south, the time for us all to rejoice down here, because we've been looking forward too it for so long. Northern posters can post too, but I think there are many cold winter threads already, but this thread is not an exclusive warm south thread either. Well here in Perth we missed everything from the big tropical low that dumped 207mm in 24hrs on Carnarvon and 112mm in 24hrs on Shark Bay. Carnarvon is under water and it shut the NW Coastal Hwy for 300km due to flash flooding risk. Just last month I was up in this area and stopped at the Murchison River crossing on the NW Coastal Hwy …
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No changes on the long range forecast, a very slight drop in temperatures but generally continuing to be unseasonally mild. This morning at 06:34 it is 13°C/55°F, which is a few degrees warmer than forecast.
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Cool overnight showery start to Spring here. Days are glorious as per, and it looks like some rains end of the week and beginning of next so all in all, a great start. May this be a bountiful palm quarter.
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Spring has sprung, the grass is riz. I wonder where the birdies is ? Well I dont have to wonder, one is dangling from my ear trying to admire my dental work and the other is swinging on the chandalier squawking his version of the love boat. What is it about this part of the world.....the calender flips over to september and its like a switch going on that ignites the warm season. Today is glorious....warm, sunny , gentle breeze. There's little green shoots on the shrubs, palm spears opening up all over the place and every bauhinia in town is covered in flowers all of a sudden. Time to slap on the 30 plus and to get outside .....always a busy time of year for we of the…
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Not much to report here in Louisiana, other than still no rains and conditions nearing treacherous. I have seen a couple of large mature trees dying. It is that dry.
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I know there have been similar topics discussed on Palmtalk in the past. My recent visit to the Miami area, however, has compelled me to want to explore it further. It is usually stated and written that South Florida's climate is subtropical. I would argue that extreme South Florida (and at the very least the coastal Miami/Ft. Lauderdale areas) has a fully tropical climate. Note, the FL Keys tend to be considered truly tropical already, so I won't include the Keys in this discussion. I contend that, based on my first-hand observations of the area's vegetation and weather, as well as climate data available, extreme SE Florida meets all different definitions of a…
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