Michael

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Hurricane season is still cranking, tropical storm Michael has formed and moving north into the Gulf of Mexico. Looks like the Florida panhandle is in his way, but all in the south should keep an eye out.

A little similar to Charlie back in 2004, hopefully will not have similar effects. But I do hope it gives SW Florida some good rain before the raining season ends.

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The panhandle better be on alert, I'm reading there's some possibility this hits as a major hurricane. I'm not worried about it yet in Tampa, but will be keeping a close eye on it since there's some tail-risk of an impact.

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Looks like I'm gonna get some rain on Wednesday :D

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From the projected path, those affected by flooding in the Carolinas may get some impact from this one at some point as well.

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I thought of Charley, too. I'm up for some rain, just not another cat 4. The track shifted east vs. yesterday's prediction. Charley was supposed to hit Tampa but made a sudden right turn to hit us with 30 minutes' notice. My son called me from Ft. Myers and said, "Mom, you have a bullseye on your roof." Then it traveled up the Peace River to demolish Arcadia. Many Tampa residents fled the city into Central FL and Arcadia only to get nuked there. Never mess with hurricanes.

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Praying for you all!

 

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Stay safe down there! For anyone living around but not in the projected path, I would recommend making backup plans just in case the path suddenly changes. 

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Michael passes Cuba, to the west.

5bbcc539aa00b_manincane.jpg.2df802850d1b

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¡Miguel, bajarte del malecón!

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Just upgraded to Category 3- center forecast to make landfall near Panama City. Could strengthen more.

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No way it will miss. Don't play chicken with this one.

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Thinking of you all in Michael’s path!

 

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It's gonna make landfall somewhere around Panama City, which is 45 miles east of me, or possibly even further east than that like Apalachicola. Seeing how I'll be on the "good/left side" of it, I'm staying put and not going anywhere myself. I think we're only gonna see tropical storm force winds here in the Destin area. I've actually stayed put during every hurricane to hit this area since 2004, including Ivan in Sept. 2004, which did a lot of damage.

 

Edited by Estlander
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Good luck up there @Estlander!

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I am so sad about this storm. The area around Apalachicola was one of the first places we adopted as a go-to very cool vacation place in 1992 when we came to Florida, because it was not totally built up and over touristed like the Destin/Seaside/Grayton Beach area. We used to take all our own food and have Thanksgiving and Christmas on the beach when my daughter was young on St George Island. We almost bought a second house there on St George 4 years ago but decided that it would be more prudent to get our daughter finished with college before we gave serious thought to taking on a huge mortgage payment this late in life. I know its useless to wish it away because its not going away. Its going to devastate that whole area and so many people's lives are going to be wrecked for a long time. My family went through Hurricane Celia on the Texas Gulf Coast in 1970, it came ashore as a Cat 3 almost Cat 4 (there really isn't any difference in 10 miles +/- of wind speed the destruction is the same).  It devastated the small town we lived in. Nothing was ever the same. No family was spared. Things that were lost were never replaced in some instances by the town or by the individual families. We couldn't even go back for a week and even then there was no power no water no food and we had 2 feet of water and mud in our house. But everyone was in the same boat in the surrounding towns too. I remember standing in a line with my mother for hours to get a single bag of ice and 2-3 jugs of clean water a day distributed out of the back of a truck. Things are different these days but still its going to be so difficult for them to recover. The same town I lived in that got smashed in 1970 was ground zero for Harvey last year. People I knew in the high school days who never left there had this weird fatalistic sense of Deja Vu. One of my best friends lost her house, completely and now lives in a double wide trailer. I know hurricanes strike Florida all the time and no one is surprised but man I am so sad for these people. Thinking about all of them today, in a few hours their lives will have been changed forever.

 

 

 

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@metalfan + @DoomsDave This one has definitely become a worst-case scenario for the panhandle.  Hope all the folks up there make it through alright.

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Praying for the people, I hope they evacuated and not taking a chance as sometimes it is over hyped but Michael is not over hyped.

It is strange to see snow and a hurricane on the same map of the US, you do not see that often.

DpJozBCX4AADMHj.jpeg

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14 hours ago, Estlander said:

It's gonna make landfall somewhere around Panama City, which is 45 miles east of me, or possibly even further east than that like Apalachicola. Seeing how I'll be on the "good/left side" of it, I'm staying put and not going anywhere myself. I think we're only gonna see tropical storm force winds here in the Destin area. I've actually stayed put during every hurricane to hit this area since 2004, including Ivan in Sept. 2004, which did a lot of damage.

 

You and my family in the Destin/Niceville area are very very fortunate. Unlike Ivan, Opal, or Dennis, Michael is strengthening at landfall as a cat 4. Ivan and Dennis spent all their energy farther away from the coast and were weakening cat 3's at landfall, and Destin/Niceville only got strong cat 1 conditions. If the eye of Michael was hitting SE Okaloosa/SW Walton County, you would not want to ride out category 4 winds unless you were in a shelter or a very well shuttered house away from the surge zone.

Here's some very good footage of what cat. 4 winds look like (from Hurricane Charley in Port Charlotte in 2004)- start watching at 4:17. Also check out 6:57 for the flying piece of plywood. Cat 4 winds is where flying debris becomes very significant.

 

Edited by Opal92
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It is hard to believe that the pressure is at 928 mb and has been dropping.

928mb.png

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46 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

It is hard to believe that the pressure is at 928 mb and has been dropping.

928mb.png

Hmm. The record low in a 'cane is 882 mb from Hurricane Wilma in 2003. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

I suppose that record could always be broken, though I hope not.

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It's just about to make landfall in what looks to be Panama City or just east of there. I came in to check if we have any members in its path. Praying hard for y'all.

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I have family and friends in the panhandle and immediately above in Alabama. This is a scary storm, and it’s a reminder that storms can pop up and increase in power out of the blue. My prayers are with the people whose lives are about to be changed forever. 

 

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This storm is nothing but bad news all the way around.  It bottomed off at 919mb (compare to some of the others below.

919mb.png

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Wind speeds managed to creep up to 155mph, putting it just a notch below a CAT5.

155MPH.png

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Listening to the noon news now on CBS, made landfall, 155mph + and expecting possible 13-foot storm surge. That's frightening. Best wishes for all with homes in the area. Our friends in eastern Georgia said they may end up in the middle of it on Thursday. Let's hope we don't see any loss of life. I saw coverage of an older man who said he had never been through a Hurricane before and was going to ride it out. After seeing what happened in the Florida Keys not that long ago, just wonder if he has any real idea of what he could be facing. Does that part of Florida even have any high elevation areas to go to?

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3 minutes ago, WestCoastGal said:

Listening to the noon news now on CBS, made landfall, 155mph + and expecting possible 13-foot storm surge. That's frightening. Best wishes for all with homes in the area. Our friends in eastern Georgia said they may end up in the middle of it on Thursday. Let's hope we don't see any loss of life. I saw coverage of an older man who said he had never been through a Hurricane before and was going to ride it out. After seeing what happened in the Florida Keys not that long ago, just wonder if he has any real idea of what he could be facing. Does that part of Florida even have any high elevation areas to go to?

The highest point in Florida is near the Alabama border to the north of the affected areas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britton_Hill

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The news said some places are already reporting 7-ft high surges.

While they won't be taking a direct hit like the panhandle, the Carolinas and Virginia certainly don't need more rain. I'm not even sure some areas have dried out from the last one.

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This storm is looking really terrifying. :bummed: I feel very sorry for anyone in its path. Hoping people evacuated. Once arrived, nothing to do but hunker down. Volcanic eruptions don't look so bad compared to this.

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Even though I was about 50 miles from the eye, it was quite an experience.

It knocked down some of my rose bushes and fruit trees. I guess it wasn't too hard to do with ground being saturated and my plants not that established.

But as I was out there trying to prop them back up I actually had a short needle pine tree almost come down on me. The roots just gave away. Fortunately other pines were there to stop the fall.

I'm actually glad it came down. I always hated that tree. Not a fan of short needle pines and it was leaning heavily.

But I couldn't take it down as the lean was towards the neighbors house. The wind actually pushed it away from the lean and almost in an opposite direction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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678829DC-A1CE-4DB4-BF1E-BB9F18EF052D.jpg

Edited by Estlander
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The thing is still a cat 4 as I type this. I think there's an excellent chance it will be upgraded to a cat 5 when all is said and done. Videos show it demolishing stuff right and left. Definitely one for the books and proof no one should discount these storms.

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3 hours ago, Estlander said:

Even though I was about 50 miles from the eye, it was quite an experience.

It knocked down some of my rose bushes and fruit trees. I guess it wasn't too hard to do with ground being saturated and my plants not that established.

But as I was out there trying to prop them back up I actually had a short needle pine tree almost come down on me. The roots just gave away. Fortunately other pines were there to stop the fall.

I'm actually glad it came down. I always hated that tree. Not a fan of short needle pines and it was leaning heavily.

But I couldn't take it down as the lean was towards the neighbors house. The wind actually pushed it away from the lean and almost in an opposite direction.

Quite honestly, just glad that you are OK.

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4 hours ago, WestCoastGal said:

Listening to the noon news now on CBS, made landfall, 155mph + and expecting possible 13-foot storm surge. That's frightening. Best wishes for all with homes in the area. Our friends in eastern Georgia said they may end up in the middle of it on Thursday. Let's hope we don't see any loss of life. I saw coverage of an older man who said he had never been through a Hurricane before and was going to ride it out. After seeing what happened in the Florida Keys not that long ago, just wonder if he has any real idea of what he could be facing. Does that part of Florida even have any high elevation areas to go to?

Unfortunately Florida is flatter than a pancake. The entire state was covered in a shallow sea at the time of the dinosaurs so we have no dinosaur fossils here. Only the fossils of marine animals and later after water receded mammalian fossils

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4 hours ago, Estlander said:

Even though I was about 50 miles from the eye, it was quite an experience.

It knocked down some of my rose bushes and fruit trees. I guess it wasn't too hard to do with ground being saturated and my plants not that established.

But as I was out there trying to prop them back up I actually had a short needle pine tree almost come down on me. The roots just gave away. Fortunately other pines were there to stop the fall.

I'm actually glad it came down. I always hated that tree. Not a fan of short needle pines and it was leaning heavily.

But I couldn't take it down as the lean was towards the neighbors house. The wind actually pushed it away from the lean and almost in an opposite direction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

435D9625-6788-4706-8F7F-D39F28519D17.jpg

678829DC-A1CE-4DB4-BF1E-BB9F18EF052D.jpg

This is what my property looks like after Irma a year ago....those shallow rooted trees like pine and sweetgum just go over as soon as the ground gets saturated and a stiff wind blows just the right way. Glad you were not hurt and no property damage!

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10 hours ago, Opal92 said:
10 hours ago, Opal92 said:

 

You and my family in the Destin/Niceville area are very very fortunate. Unlike Ivan, Opal, or Dennis, Michael is strengthening at landfall as a cat 4. Ivan and Dennis spent all their energy farther away from the coast and were weakening cat 3's at landfall, and Destin/Niceville only got strong cat 1 conditions. If the eye of Michael was hitting SE Okaloosa/SW Walton County, you would not want to ride out category 4 winds unless you were in a shelter or a very well shuttered house away from the surge zone.

Here's some very good footage of what cat. 4 winds look like (from Hurricane Charley in Port Charlotte in 2004)- start watching at 4:17. Also check out 6:57 for the flying piece of plywood. Cat 4 winds is where flying debris becomes very significant.

 

Wow, scary video indeed. If you get hit with the center of a hurricane you get no break from the wind. It's intense and constant. Further away from the center the wind is not so constant and comes in gusts followed by a brief calm.

From all the hurricanes since 2004 I remember Ivan. It hit Gulf Shores AL. as Cat 3. I still can't believe how much damage it did when compared to all the subsequent hurricanes. That was partly because Ivan was a very slow moving storm lasting all night before it finally passed.

Navarre Beach, which is quite a ways away Gulf Shores, suffered some major damage. I still have the pics it took there, some of which I'll post below.

Even here in the Destin-Fort Walton Beach area, which is even further more away from Gulf Shores than Navarre, there was a lot of damage.

After Dennis2.JPG

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Navarre Beach after Ivan.JPG

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Ivan aftermath in Fort Walton Beach. How did some of those boats get to where they are, I don't know, lol.

Hurricane Ivan (2).JPG

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Hurricane Ivan.JPG

Edited by Estlander
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Now here's a design if you want your house to survive a hurricane, lol.

After Dennis20.JPG

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@Estlander, SO GLAD TO HEAR YOU'RE SAFE ENOUGH TO TAKE THOSE PICTURES.

Some of the news pics look pretty bad:

5bbf45e5658f4_PANAMACITYHMIKE.jpg.c7108e

Gotta love the blunt honesty in the name!

5bbf45e606547_BOOZEEXPRESSHMIKE.jpg.b8a5

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These are WHOA pictures:

A derailed TRAIN.

5bbf462ed1e88_DERAILEDTRAINHMIKE.jpg.4a4

 

And a snapped Sabal.

5bbf46482c19d_SNAPPEDPALMHMIKE.jpg.67fc4

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