Concern for Leilani Estates as lava moves eastward underground

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62 days into the Pause and here's the latest volcanic activity report from USGS HVO (10/5) ( https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/status.html )

HVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice 

Volcano: Kilauea (VNUM #332010)

Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY  
Previous Volcano Alert Level: WATCH

Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW  
Previous Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Issued: Friday, October 5, 2018, 8:47 AM HST
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 
Location: N 19 deg 25 min W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1247 m) 
Area: Hawaii 

Volcanic Activity Summary: It has been 30 days since lava has been active at the surface of Kīlauea Volcano. HVO monitoring shows low rates of seismicity, steady, relatively low rates of deformation across the volcano, and only minor gas emission at the summit and East Rift Zone (ERZ). These observations indicate that resumption of eruption or summit collapse is unlikely in the near-term. 

Accordingly, HVO is lowering the Volcano Alert Level for ground based hazards from WATCH to ADVISORY. This means volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for renewed activity. The Aviation Color Code is also being lowered from ORANGE to YELLOW.

Hazards are still present in the lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption area and at the Kīlauea summit. Residents and visitors near recently active fissures and lava flows should stay informed, heed Hawaii County Civil Defense warnings, and be prepared, if necessary, to self-evacuate in the unlikely event of renewed activity. Please note that Hawaii County maintains a closure of the entire flow field and the vents and prohibits access to the area unless authorized through Civil Defense.  

Residents are also advised of continuing hazardous conditions described below.  

For definitions of USGS Volcano Alert Levels and Aviation Color Codes, see: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/about_alerts.html


Recent Observations: 
[Volcanic cloud height] only minor fume from active areas  
[Other volcanic cloud information] none at this time  
[Lava flow/dome] no active lava at this time  
[Lava flow] no active lava at this time  

Hazard Analysis
[General hazards] Continuing hazards in areas of recent activity.  
[Ash cloud] not a concern at this time  
[Ashfall] not a concern at this time  
[Lava flow/dome] no active lava at this time  
[Mud flow] NA  
[Other hazards] low levels of degassing, hot cracks, rugged unstable new lava surfaces  
[Volcanic gas] SO2 emission rate less than 300 tonnes per day for the entire volcano.  
[Lava flow] no active lava at this time  

Remarks: Background and Prognosis 

Kīlauea Volcano has maintained a low level of activity over the past two months. The last summit collapse was on August 2, 2018. High rates of seismicity and deflationary deformation at the summit stopped abruptly on August 4, coincident with cessation of major eruptive activity in the LERZ. Lava ceased flowing in the upper portion of the fissure 8 channel system by August 6, and ocean entries were inactive in late August. Active lava was last seen inside the fissure 8 cone on September 5. The total sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit, Puʻu ʻŌʻō, and LERZ fissure vents combined is currently less than 300 tonnes per day. 

Seismicity remains low across the volcano. Ground deformation continues, but at rates well below those during the period of major eruptive activity this summer. An exception is within the middle East Rift Zone where data show evidence of reinflation between Puʻu ʻŌʻō and Highway 130. One interpretation of this signal is that the rift zone is refilling with magma following withdrawal during the 2018 eruption. An increase in this refilling rate or other change could result in new eruptive vents along any portion of the East Rift Zone.  

While it is impossible to say with certainty what Kīlauea will do next, current monitoring data do not suggest a return to eruptive activity or summit collapse in the near term. HVO continues to closely monitor incoming geologic, seismic, deformation, and gas data for evidence of significant magma shallowing or pressurization that could mean the system was building toward renewed activity. 

This change in activity marks the first time since 1986 that lava has not been active at Kīlauea's surface for a period of 30 or more days (The last long pause was 48.5 days between episodes 39 and 40 of the Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption.) In the past 200 years, the volcano has experienced periods of quiet ranging from months to years with no eruptive activity. However, Kīlauea is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, and additional eruptions will occur. Residents should remain informed of the volcano's status and learn about long-term hazards. For more information please see the HVO web site: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/geo_hist_summary.html

Continuing Hazards

Despite the diminished activity on Kīlauea, hazardous conditions remain in the ERZ and at the summit of the volcano.  

The LERZ and Puʻu ʻŌʻō lava flow fields include large areas of still-hot, rugged, extremely sharp, and unstable lava surfaces that are subject to collapse.

SO2 gas emissions have greatly decreased from LERZ vents to a level below instrumental detection. However, local concentrations of SO2 or H2S may persist and are still reported in downwind areas,and residents may from time to time notice odors of these gasses. Hot cracks degassing at low levels are especially common just west of Highway 130 and HVO will continue to monitor these cracks for changes. 

Around fissure 8, thick accumulations of tephra (fragmental volcanic debris) hide underground hazards such as holes and cracks; winds can pick up glassy and lightweight fragments including Pele's hair and carry them downwind. Tephra can irritate eyes, skin, and respiratory systems, so prolonged exposure should be avoided.

New lava fields at the coast appear relatively stable based on a helicopter overflight on 4 October, however no intensive ground survey of the new coastline has been done. Explosions near the coastline may still occur if sudden collapses expose the hot interiors of new lava flows to cold ocean water. HVO has received no reports that such collapses and/or explosions have occurred, but mariners should operate with caution around the new coastline and contact the U.S. Coast Guard with any questions.  

At the Kīlauea summit, rockfalls and ground cracking can still occur with no warning. Steep crater walls destabilized by months of earthquakes will be prone to collapse for weeks or months to come, even without further ground shaking.

As the summit continues to adjust to recent changes, additional, and potentially damaging, earthquakes are possible. Additional aftershocks from the May 4, 2018, magnitude-6.9 earthquake are expected. Hawai'i is prone to earthquakes, so everyone should be prepared for damaging ground shaking at any time.

At the summit, if significant draining of the magma reservoir resumes, more collapse events could occur. Alternatively, resupply of magma to the summit reservoir could lead to explosions or the reappearance of lava in the caldera.



Contacts: askHVO@usgs.gov  

Next Notice: The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) continues to closely monitor Kīlauea's seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions for any sign of reactivation. As of today, HVO will discontinue daily Kīlauea updates and will issue weekly updates on Tuesdays until further notice. If volcano activity increases, we will elevate the Alert Level for Kīlauea.
 

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Gabe posted this fabulous drone footage taken by his friend Jeremiah of the lava and F8 within Leilani as of two days ago. Quite an impressive view as it hovers above above the collapsed opening in F8 and looks down. 

 

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It's been awhile since we've seen Mick Kalber's videos. From 10/3.

 

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Dane DuPont posted this report for 10/3. Hawaii Tracker group continues to monitor the various tiltmeters and GPS stations along the LERZ on their site which they've continued to work on. I received an email from them the other day indicating they were looking ahead towards furture work the group wants to tackle. 

5bb80e1e570ea_danereport-1(1).jpg.eb9de4

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Here's another YT channel, Hawaii Aerial Visions LLC, that has some striking aerial footage of the Fissure 8 area. This one from 9/30 when it was a nice clear day.

and another recent one inside Leilani's lava field.

The videographer of these has been filming the progress of construction of Puna Kai, a shopping center going up in Pahoa. If you are interested here's a link to their video channel: https://vimeo.com/punaphantom  Believe this is a fellow Leilaini resident some of you may know (news story in Big Island Now from 1/17/17: http://bigislandnow.com/2017/01/17/fire-destroys-pahoa-landmarks/ ).

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Harry Durgin was able to reschedule his Eruption photography talk that was cancelled when the hurricane was about to reach the BI. 2 new dates and places to see it now. John Stallman (HVNP ranger who does the talks at the HUB with Ikaika and Philip Ong) will be joining Harry. Should be quite an interesting evening that I wish we could attend. Hope some of you get to see it.

5bbbf19248be3_durgin-1(4).jpg.0905348b17

 

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Much thought over the last few months about the homes on kipukas. Saw this fb post from Dane DuPont about them that I thought people would also find interesting. ( https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=239152530287229&set=pcb.1102979023201248&type=3&theater&ifg=1 )

5bbbf3e7df435_kipukas-1.jpg.951ae0af7368

5bbbf42c35776_kipukas-1(1).jpg.3ed5a21d5

And there was this post from LE resident Stacy Welch showing the trucks addressing the lava covered roadway on Kupono:

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2147954748860756&id=100009387554934

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Pretty amazing but not unexpected given we know the lava is still very hot under the flow, but here's a video from Jason Twillman illustrating how hot it is (at least 212F! :lol: ). Also why we still see steam from the fissures after it rains. ( https://www.facebook.com/jtwillman/videos/10215753223576786/UzpfSTE2Mjk0ODkzNzc6MTEwMjkzNDk2OTg3MjMyMA/ )

 

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I swear Jason Twillman down by Noni Farms Road finds the coolest formations and things down there. He's posted lots of photos of tree molds and other formations in the lava. Really interesting photos. If you have fb probably easiest to check for his webpage (member required), but I occasionally see some of his posts shared on fb Hawaii Trackers site. Thought I would share a link to this interesting find he made. ( https://www.facebook.com/jtwillman/videos/pcb.10215746539049677/10215746511969000/?type=3&theater&ifg=1 )

I was reading through the Comments on Hawaii Tracker about ideas of what it was, and Jason posted this about it: 

5bbbf85f07134_hive-1.jpg.5a8ca5f047ee482

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Want to learn more about your dirt? Puna resident Josiah Hunt (might have noticed his name from some of the videos seen of the eruption that were posted) will be premiering his film "Dirt Rich: Power Beneath our Feet" at Stanford University on 10/23/18 at 9:10pm. Ticket info in link below. Hey this is one as a SF bay area resident we can attend. Josiah will be there in person. I bet this will be well attended. ( https://www.facebook.com/DirtRichTheMovie/posts/1346511828813634 )

5bbbfcba6b507_dirtrich-1.thumb.jpg.9d43a

Can't make it but still want to see it? Through October 12 you can watch it on a Vimeo link at this site. Cool! 

It's an hour 28 minutes long btw.

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2018/10/06/carbon-sequestration-biochar-for-soil-health.aspx

 

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One last link to share today, these are photos taken by a drone by Joseph Anthony (now that the FAA restrictions has expired) as it flew over some of the fissures in Leilani and down by PGV. Have to say the cone of F22 is so perfect in shape to what I think of as a volcanic cone. Now I know better! ( https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=238324367036712&set=pcb.1102028649962952&type=3&theater&ifg=1 )  You can arrow through the left right arrow keys to advance through the photos.

 

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Been busy with home front things. Thought I would do an update since last post back on the 9th. Since the HUB talks are popular and educational and frequently provide updates for the area will post links to those and follow up with some other news as I have time today.

Friday, 10/12 - 46 min.:  ( https://www.facebook.com/phil.hawaii/videos/vb.1293917994/10216415303597187/?type=2&theater )

Monday, 10/15 after HUB talk - 1hr 32min: ( https://www.facebook.com/phil.hawaii/videos/vb.1293917994/10216438965708725/?type=2&theater )

John Stallman had this live talk on Tues. 10/16 - 41 min. : ( https://www.facebook.com/john.stallman.9/videos/1360628950739285/UzpfSTEwMDAwMDgyMDc2NDI1MTpWSzoxMTA3NTE2MTYyNzQ3NTM0/ )

 

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Work within Leilani to provide street access to those areas where cracks have impacted people getting to their homes has been on going.

Kupono Street:

5bc8c7200559e_KuponoSt-1.jpg.7483e2ef3b7

Photos: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=240914646777684&set=gm.1105398959625921&type=3&theater&ifg=1

Video of the repair on Kupono from Gabe:

 

Next challenge -- Upper Moku Street (near what I refer to as "Bo's palms house" and next door to what Scott referred to as the "sulfur house"):

5bc8c6543209b_Moku-1(1).jpg.ff37b19b5aa3

Photos: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=242637069938775&set=pcb.1107524786080005&type=3&theater&ifg=1

Gabe posted this video including drone footage (courtesy of StrangeHawaii) of the work as it was being done on Moku. We've been wondering how Hawaii deals with this kind of challenging roadwork.

 

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