Concern for Leilani Estates as lava moves eastward underground

[Kim]

Thanks for the link to the Civil Defense photo albums. The detail and clarity as well as the broad expanses shown in these photos is unsurpassed. Gives me a very clear picture of what's unfolding in the big picture.

After listening to Philip Ong's detailed and cautionary statements about the current stage of the eruption, I get the feeling we are at the beginning of the latter part of the eruption, whatever that may turn out to be. Still an unprecedented quantity of lava bleeding out, but hints of slowing -- I have to take it as encouraging words. (Philip Ong is an excellent teacher, I have been learning a lot about how volcanoes work.)

[Moose]

 

Published on Jul 18, 2018

[WestCoastGal]

HCPD are in pursuit of the suspect right now according to this post from Ryan Finlay. Let's hope he and any accomplice/s are found and no more injuries to our force. BTW lots of silence (likely on a secure channel) but did just hear about some perimeter on Hwy 11 I think they said (around 10:35pm PDT or 7:35pm HST). Gave streets but I'm unfamilar with them. Hope everyone remains safe from this guy including any residents in the area. For him to drive into oncoming traffic at 80mph yesterday to avoid capture you know he's desperate to avoid capture.

 

[WestCoastGal]

Gabe posted an hour ago that he was pretty sure he was watching a surge coming from F8, the most he's ever seen, and had been going on for about 10 minutes at that point. Posted later that it lasted about an hour and 20 minutes. Said there have been very strong pulses afterwards. Cindy Whn posted this from PGV cam at one point:

Here's the PGV cam now:

About 20 minutes ago another fb person said they just felt an earthquake in Opihikao. I'm sure Gabe will have video for us later when he gets a chance to upload to YT. Of course the main concern here is overflows all along the channel and down by Pohoiki later.

[WestCoastGal]

Ikaika evening post on the water from an hour ago ( https://www.facebook.com/ikaika.marzo/videos/1892948247424369/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDM2ODM2NDU2NDgyMTcy/ ) 

 

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There's a talk going on at the HUB with a special guest. Live feed is over now and here's the regular link.  ( https://www.facebook.com/ikaika.marzo/videos/1892994577419736/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDM2ODczNDM5ODExODA3/ ) 

 

[WestCoastGal]

Mick Kalber's video for Thursday, 7/19, uploaded 3 hours ago. Video from F8 and down to coast. It's dusk so images at LE are fairly dark for identifying properties.

 

[WestCoastGal]

Jason Twillman posted this video an hour ago down at the channel near his property. Says he can hear the flow going pretty fast. He also said that he is working with a media company to install a 60ft high live feed camera of F8 from where he's at that will be on 24/7 and also working with the media company and USGS to set one up further down the channel in Kapoho area. Jason has been very concerned about all of his neighbors still on farms in the area and any major outbreak that could happen at any time of day or night, like the one that happened around Cinderland. Great news. Give a listen to his video for details and a view of the future location. ( https://www.facebook.com/jtwillman/videos/10215175086403718/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDM2ODE4OTQ5ODE3MjU2/ )

 

 

 

[WestCoastGal]

Speaking of live cams to be set up, Harry Durgin's go-fund-me campaign to help raise funds for one he has planned is now complete. 

https://www.gofundme.com/lava-equipment

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Harry's also been working on analyzing the thermal camera temperatures over on the plates at Hwy 130. Posted about his project earlier on here. He made another post tonight when he noticed the the plates on 130 got pretty hot today for awhile. He posted a video of it linked to below and he had asked people their thoughts on it. Here's several replies he received.

Video of plate temperature: https://www.facebook.com/harry.durgin.1/videos/10156443080524242/

I kind of like Patty Jones' comment. We know there are lava tube/s running below Hwy 130 there and wonder if the increase tracks to when the lava leaves the summit and surges or pulses down to F8.

 

[WestCoastGal]

BTW heading to bed now but was waiting for an update on the police pursuit. Just saw a comment that the regular feed is back again on the scanner "for the rest of the night" so the thought is that they got him. Let's hope so. I know one person 30 minutes ago said he was leaving to go to work and turned back and told to go home that the road was closed. Another person 20 minutes ago posted that they heard multiple cars with sirens blasting heading up from a certain area. Said it looked like every cop on the island was responding.

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And one last item for tonight, a post from Dane DuPont with aerial images from Scott Wilson's flyover tonight. (photos -- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=179490762920073&set=pcb.1036915833140901&type=3&theater&ifg=1 ) There are some closeups of the Nohea area.

 

[WestCoastGal]

In the News:

Well HCPD are still on the look out for Justin Waiki. They did get his two accomplices a man and woman, the man was shot. Someone said scanner reported laceration to leg, shot in hand. Waiki is still at large. Reports road is now open to traffic in the Honaunau area and police dept thanks community for their patience. Latest news reports are that Waiki may still be hiding out in south Kona area.

http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2018/07/20/hawaii-news/police-searching-south-kona-for-alleged-cop-killer/

A more detailed accounting: http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38673493/manhunt-continues-for-man-accused-in-puna-officers-fatal-shooting

The reward for info leading to conviction has now gone up to $30K: http://bigislandnow.com/2018/07/19/30000-reward-offered-for-info-leading-to-conviction-of-cop-killer/

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As of last afternoon the lava was inching closer to Pohoiki: http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/07/19/breaking-news/lava-closing-in-on-pohoiki-boat-ramp-at-isaac-hale-park/  Waiting for Ikaika's morning boat report.

 

[WestCoastGal]

If you have difficulty watching the HUB talks on the fb feed, Philip Ong does post many of them to his YT channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/lavapip/videos

Yesterday he uploaded 3 of them (7/17, 7/18 and last night's 7/19 with Captain Kiko and Ikaika--below). BTW if you like Philip's updates, I'd encourage you to like them on his YT channel and let him know it's worth his time posting by commenting there. You can subscribed to his channel and if you click on the bell get email alerts when they are posted. Hopefully he'll continue to post videos on other volcano related subjects down the road if he get enough interest.

 

[WestCoastGal]

As mentioned in last night's video and in Ryan Finlay's fb Hawaii Tracker post, the guys have been doing all this on a volunteer basis but since this has gone on for so long are hoping people would be willing to donate to help recover some of their costs and keep them going forward doing this as there still isn't an end in sight yet. If you have felt the info posted on Hawaii Tracker group which has been shared here, along with videos from Ikaika, Philip and others has been of value to you and can make a donation of any kind, here's the link to their donation page: https://hawaiitracker.com . Funds can be donated by credit card or using pay pal. 

[WestCoastGal]

An interesting piece by Big Island Now on what's likely going on below the ocean entry. Hmm I remember seeing Frank Sansone's video before, maybe on a volcano program or National Geo. Have to look for it online. I think it was Frank who got the first video footage of pillow lava. Also remember seeing them nearly killed when an avalanche of weak lava came tumbling down when they were filming on the video I saw.

http://bigislandnow.com/hawaii-videos/watch/1740035159407359/

BTW found this 2008 video of Shane and his other lava diving buddies checking out the pillow lava being formed by Kilauea back then. 

 

Ah! found the video by Frank Sansone....parts 1 and 2 (14 and 12 minutes).

 

 

[WestCoastGal]

There is an association of store owners in Pahoa called "Mainstreet Pahoa Association" and they have been getting more active with events to bring more life back into the town of Pahoa to revitialize it's economy. Saw Matt Purvis' video on Hawaii Trackers the other day talking about how much an injection of tourism was needed for the area to be able to survive. ( https://www.facebook.com/pahoatown/videos/1868817676754010/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDM0NTk2OTcwMDM5NDU0/ )

Here's their website: https://mainstreetpahoa.business.site

Saw this poster on fb Hawaii Tracker a few minutes ago. Sounds like a fun and hope they get a good turn out from neighboring subdivisions and visitor to the BI.

 

[WestCoastGal]

Gabe's (YT H.I.S Survival) video from last night of the surge at F8.

 

[WestCoastGal]

News from Pohoiki -- 

 

[WestCoastGal]

Scott was asked to check on someone's house the other day and got permission from CD to go in today. He has his Go Pro on his vehicle. He was told to go nowhere but his destination. He comments as he is driving by how all the houses down Moku have tephra on the roof. His video starts out on Leilani and turns down Moku and appears to stop by the palm house (I call it Bo's palm house!) near the end of Moku and Malama. He returns the way he came, Moku then onto Leilani. Not many homes to see, but sure everyone is curious about the conditions there in general. There was a neighbor who ordered a shipping container (think I saw their post on Hawaii Tracker about the cost) and Scott passes by it on the road. 

 

[WestCoastGal]

A rather long post by Dane DuPont but thought it worth posting here instead of just linking (which I'll still do so you can see the video/photos). ( https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=180119016190581&set=pcb.1037602446405573&type=3&theater&ifg=1 ) All I can say is that Leilani Estates from what I've read and seen in videos has had many really great neighbors willing to help each other, even those who have continued to do so when they have not had a home to go back to. So many times we don't get to know our neighbors and it can take something larger than us to bring people together. I know that some of Leilani is forever lost to people's return but I hope at some point your community will thrive again and the brown will be green again. Different no doubt, but maybe a stronger community in the end.

 

[bgl]

I watched Scott's 5 minute video as he's driving up and down Moku Street (Leilani Avenue to Malama and back) and I watched the part with the "palm house" several times, and I don't see any sign of the Marojejyas. Considering how it looks, just in general, in that area I have to assume that all the palms are doomed, if they're not already dead. And needless to say, most home owners have more important things to be concerned about than saving plants.

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

Wow, the lava delta is up to 725 acres of new land created

Published on Jul 20, 2018

[Kim]

"Mongoose on watch 24 hours a day..." love it! 

[WestCoastGal]

Looks like the manhunt is over. Saw it unofficially being reported by someone on Hawaii Tracker group and then this was posted:

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38673493/manhunt-continues-for-man-accused-in-puna-officers-fatal-shooting

http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2018/07/20/hawaii-news/two-shot-in-shootout-at-south-point/

Good thought go out to the officers. 

[WestCoastGal]

This report was recently released and discussions ongoing on Hawaii Tracker group about it. Of course no one knows for sure what the longevity of this fissure situation will be but people would love to know in order to make plans and not accept a long-term look, but we all know not possible for anyone to know. People in the no-go zone on Hawaii Tracker are still feeling very much in limbo.

http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/07/20/usgs-document-gives-fissure-8-prognosis-maps-lava-threats/

Here's the USGS Report:  https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-185/USGS%20Preliminary%20Analysis_LERZ%20July%2015%202018.pdf

[WestCoastGal]

Latest HUB update fb video. With Philip Ong and Andrew Dunn. ( https://www.facebook.com/ikaika.marzo/videos/1894184593967401/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDM3Njk2MjEzMDYyODYz/ )

 

[Dave-Vero]

The July 15 USGS report is sobering.  As everyone has noted, the "river of lava" has become elevated above the surrounding terrain, so there's a possibility of flow redirecting to the west.  The eruption also isn't showing signs of slowing down.   And it's a big eruption by historic standards.

[WestCoastGal]

I have wondered about this. Don't know if it's even practical or possible. From older maps of LE like on Google Maps, it looked like there are still a lot of empty lots on the western side of LE. Are those sold? At this juncture can't imagine they are worth much if they could even be sold. Just thought if people still wanted to be in the area if there is still space there maybe their house could be moved that's still otherwise liveable. Even if you only cleared the front street side portion of the lot for the time being. Have no idea about the cost either.  I know the air quality is still an issue for people along with the potential overflow and don't know if people at this point would just want to be done with any eruption scenario from their lives. Not hard to understand if so. Having a towering lava highway in the vicinity seems pretty daunting. I just look at videos of lots that are not so much affected, and LE is still such a beautiful place and you wouldn't really be building just relocating. I'm just thinking if you have a mortgage you still have to pay on it or have your credit trashed and you still could have a house otherwise habitable if not for the location. I know life is never as easy as we wish it could be. 

[WestCoastGal]

If they build it, will people come? Report on the last time government tried to create housing for displaced lava victims.

https://www.civilbeat.org/2018/07/big-island-last-time-hawaii-had-lava-refugees-it-built-a-ghost-town/

I do think from the questions at the Pahoa Community Meeting, they are trying to get a good feel for what people might want. I am confused about land being leased to people though and not sold outright. Is this typical of lots in Hawaii? Always lived in a place where you owned your parcel of land your house was on.

[WestCoastGal]

As you may or may not know there was another officer shot by the suspect before he was killed today. The Puna officer is in stable condition tonight. I thought Hawaii News Now had pretty good coverage of how the stop was made and how things transpired. Surprised the guy had so much help from others given they became accomplices by hiding him. 

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38673493/manhunt-continues-for-man-accused-in-puna-officers-fatal-shooting

KHON2 has video of the checkpoint stop. Same footage I saw on a Hawaii Tracker post I believe. They also identify the second officer who was injuried in their broadcast and say he was wearing a bullet proof vest at the time.  https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/authorities-converge-in-honaunau-as-search-escalates-for-suspected-killer/1312410983

 

[Moose]

 

[Dave-Vero]

Land tenure in Hawai'i has an unusual and vexed history.  I suspect that leasehold may be in part a borrowing from English practice.  Much of the land in central London is owned by the old farm-type estates that leased the land for development rather than sell outright.  

[bgl]

10 hours ago, WestCoastGal said:

If they build it, will people come? Report on the last time government tried to create housing for displaced lava victims.

https://www.civilbeat.org/2018/07/big-island-last-time-hawaii-had-lava-refugees-it-built-a-ghost-town/

I do think from the questions at the Pahoa Community Meeting, they are trying to get a good feel for what people might want. I am confused about land being leased to people though and not sold outright. Is this typical of lots in Hawaii? Always lived in a place where you owned your parcel of land your house was on.

All property in Leilani Estates is "fee simple", meaning you own the land. Same goes for all the other major subdivisions; Hawaiian Paradise Park, Hawaiian Acres, Orchidland etc., and to the best of my knowledge, most of Hilo. What they are referring to in the article are the areas that are specifically for Hawaiians ("Hawaiian Homelands"). And as far as I know, in order to lease the land (real cheap), you need to prove that you have at least 50% Hawaiian blood. Fewer and fewer of those around these days. Then, when property like that gets passed on to the next generation, they need to prove at least 25% Hawaiian blood. So you lease the land, but then of course you have to pay for the house you're building. The potential long-term uncertainty with such property has resulted in many of those who are indeed eligible going elsewhere. After some 185 homes were destroyed in Kalapana in 1990/1991, quite a few of the Hawaiians there bought land in Leilani Estates, just five miles up the road. The advantage for them being that if and when they decided to sell their property, they could do so to ANYONE. Having a house in one of the dedicated Hawaiian Homelands really limits the number of potential buyers, and may very well impact property values (just my own guess).

[WestCoastGal]

Just saw this post from a fellow LE resident who commented on what seemed like a very strong pulse down at Pomaikai barrier. Said it was about 5 minutes on an off between cycles.

Just a word of caution about possible overflows today. Gabe mentioned that he's looking at the mouth of F8 now.

The Halema'uma'u collapse explosion at the summit occurred at 9:44am HST (12:44pm PDT). M5.4. It was felt in Hilo.

[WestCoastGal]

Update from Ikaika on Pohoiki. Still looking good so far.

 

[WestCoastGal]

As mentioned before Jason Twillman has been searching for a live feed spot down in Kapoho probably around Noni Farms area. He shared this photo and thinking it's a possible location if safe enough. Really nice view regardless!

[WestCoastGal]

In the news (mostly stories about the suspect and pursuit):

Mayor Kim had requested the agreement for Hawaii County to purchase 300 acres of private property in Kapoho be terminated and it was the other day. http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/07/21/government-purchase-of-300-acres-in-kapoho-dropped/

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The second village of micro-units is near completion. Article from Monday. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38644088/big-hearts-band-together-to-build-tiny-homes-village-for-lava-evacuees

Haven't seen update on the ones Ikaika's group is working on.

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[WestCoastGal]

3 hours ago, bgl said:

All property in Leilani Estates is "fee simple", meaning you own the land. Same goes for all the other major subdivisions; Hawaiian Paradise Park, Hawaiian Acres, Orchidland etc., and to the best of my knowledge, most of Hilo. What they are referring to in the article are the areas that are specifically for Hawaiians ("Hawaiian Homelands"). And as far as I know, in order to lease the land (real cheap), you need to prove that you have at least 50% Hawaiian blood. Fewer and fewer of those around these days. Then, when property like that gets passed on to the next generation, they need to prove at least 25% Hawaiian blood. So you lease the land, but then of course you have to pay for the house you're building. The potential long-term uncertainty with such property has resulted in many of those who are indeed eligible going elsewhere. After some 185 homes were destroyed in Kalapana in 1990/1991, quite a few of the Hawaiians there bought land in Leilani Estates, just five miles up the road. The advantage for them being that if and when they decided to sell their property, they could do so to ANYONE. Having a house in one of the dedicated Hawaiian Homelands really limits the number of potential buyers, and may very well impact property values (just my own guess).

I'm aware of the native Hawaiian homelands and how it diminishes in percentage over time. My husband's cousin's wife comes from native Hawaiians. But I was thinking about this for the non-native Hawaiians (maybe not the best article to have linked to I guess). 

From what I've read recently, Sen. Ruderman's proposal* for a new evacuee community and land up in the Honolulu area I read about, the land is leasehold or leased to someone for a period of time. I think the Ruderman proposal suggested 60-years for the proposed land project. 60 years is a long time in a person's life if you are already middle age or older but for someone younger or hoping to pass on a home to family, I just don't know why people would find this appealing. Of course if you've lost your land to lava and have no other assets to rebuild from leasing land might be your only way to have a house. I can't imagine developing the land, putting up improvements and then having the leaseholder take back the property. Also not sure who pays the real estate taxes. Every where I've lived I think has been fee simple titling.

The Mayor's office was saying maybe a few weeks before they would have some proposals to put forth to the community, and that was a little while ago. Should be hearing concrete proposals soon.

 

*From Hawaii Tribune-Herald: "Ruderman said the land could be licensed to a nonprofit, such as Habitat for Humanity, that could provide long-term leases to those who lost their homes or help them build new residences. He said agricultural lots also could be provided. Those who accept a parcel would give their inundated lot to the state."

For anyone unfamiliar with ownership in land, looked up and found this explanation from a real estate company: https://www.mauirealestate.net/fee_simple.html

 

[WestCoastGal]

Latest HUB update from Philip Ong: ( https://www.facebook.com/phil.hawaii/videos/10215716172079336/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDM4NzE0NTg5NjI3Njky/ )

 

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Update on Jason Twillman's live lava cam. He said this will be a joint project with Honolulu Civil Beat! 

[WestCoastGal]

On cell unfortunately right now but just watched the periscope overflight with Bruce Omori (will post link in a bit) and good news...Pohoiki is still untouched. SO nice to see as they headed down south past the wide ocean entry. And looks like most of the lava is staying in channel on top of pre-laid 'a'a flow in that area. Hopefully a good sign and with little push of 'a'a to the south side. Looks like a nice black sands beach in part of bowls (think that's the name it's called). Here's two screen grabs. 

Here's the link to the video. Press Play arrow.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1PlJQrjdaPnxE

The channel around Cinderland really has broken down.

[WestCoastGal]

BTW if you are not familiar with the app if you click on Bruce's name (Bruce Omori @hotseathawaii2) when opening the periscope video and before pressing the Play arrow, you'll see his other videos including the post-flight talk when it's available.