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Is it getting colder in the South?


NC_Palms

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Since I moved down to North Carolina in the early 2000’s I’ve been noticing that each year it’s been getting cooler in the winter. Cold enough to damage and kill our  pindos, sabals, washingtonias, and even damage our native dwarf palmetto. What have you experienced with your palms in the Carolinas and Virginia? I am noticing that less and less are surviving each winter.  

Zone 8a/8b Greenville, NC 

Zone 9a/9b Bluffton, SC

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@NC_Palms:

There's actually a really interesting study posted in the wake of this winter, that the SE US is actually falling into a winter "warming hole." That is, winter average temperatures have been constant or even decreasing despite the overall world increase in temperatures. It is one of the two locations on the planet that this effect is occurring, the other being the North Atlantic.

The core of it looks to be in states like Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi, but the western areas of Georgia and the Carolinas are seeing some effect as well:
http://www.newsobserver.com/news/nation-world/national/article200169764.html

Edited by AnTonY
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I have been in Wilmington since 1981, I have'nt noticed that much change, just cyclical. Last winter was as mellow a winter as I can remember. This year was so bad because we had a warm December, where the palms were actively pushing out new fronds at Christmas, followed two weeks later by a week below or near freezing. Then we had the warmest February in many years, followed by a cold wet March. The Butia's are as damaged as I have ever seen here. Since the mid 90's the palms have been brought in by the thousands, so there is many more to notice than before. The old Butia  look pretty good, On the bright side, it was a good year to identify the most cold hardy specimens and collect seed. This is only my two cents worth.

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We haven't had any sudden "warm surge" last 10 years I've been here. On average, nothing happening to indicate a change from zone 8b. Although I will say that while we've gotten upper teens, still haven't seen something like 15 deg or below which has happened here multiple times in the last 100 years.

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Florida has had some nasty freezes while I've been here, like 2010 and the advective event this January, but it still pales in comparison to the 1980s by all accounts.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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13 hours ago, frienduvafrond said:

I have been in Wilmington since 1981, I have'nt noticed that much change, just cyclical. Last winter was as mellow a winter as I can remember. This year was so bad because we had a warm December, where the palms were actively pushing out new fronds at Christmas, followed two weeks later by a week below or near freezing. Then we had the warmest February in many years, followed by a cold wet March. The Butia's are as damaged as I have ever seen here. Since the mid 90's the palms have been brought in by the thousands, so there is many more to notice than before. The old Butia  look pretty good, On the bright side, it was a good year to identify the most cold hardy specimens and collect seed. This is only my two cents worth.

How have the sabal palmettos and minors do this past winter in the Wilmington area? 

Zone 8a/8b Greenville, NC 

Zone 9a/9b Bluffton, SC

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12 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Florida has had some nasty freezes while I've been here, like 2010 and the advective event this January, but it still pales in comparison to the 1980s by all accounts.

At first thought, the 1980's seems like so long ago, but in relation to earth's history, that is SO VERY recent. I think that especially with all this climate change business, it is easy to think that the threat of such hard freezes is becoming close to nil, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar event in some of our lifetimes.

Edited by Opal92
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5 minutes ago, Opal92 said:

At first thought, the 1980's seems like so long ago, but in relation to earth's history, that is SO VERY recent. I think that especially with all this climate change business, it is easy to think that the threat of freezes from that decade is becoming close to nil, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar event in some of our lifetimes.

I'm definitely in the "if it happened before, it will likely happen again" camp.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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2 hours ago, Opal92 said:

At first thought, the 1980's seems like so long ago, but in relation to earth's history, that is SO VERY recent. I think that especially with all this climate change business, it is easy to think that the threat of such hard freezes is becoming close to nil, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar event in some of our lifetimes.

I agree with that.

The advective freeze this year was eye opening and showed my area was more vulnerable than I previously thought. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-20f low temp one winter. In spite of the problems that would cause, weather is one of those things we can't get upset about because it is completely out of our control. We can either accept the risk of an botanically apocalyptic freeze, and not get too upset when it happens, or move somewhere warmer. 

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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11 hours ago, NC_Palms said:

How have the sabal palmettos and minors do this past winter in the Wilmington area? 

The sabal palmettos and minors did just fine. I have not seen a minor that looks any worse than it did last fall.  Most of the palmettos that look bad were new plantings, and the skinnier trunked more "dainty" looking ones, but percentage wise, they faired much, much better than the Butia and Chamaerops.

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6 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I agree with that.

The advective freeze this year was eye opening and showed my area was more vulnerable than I previously thought. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-20f low temp one winter. In spite of the problems that would cause, weather is one of those things we can't get upset about because it is completely out of our control. We can either accept the risk of an botanically apocalyptic freeze, and not get too upset when it happens, or move somewhere warmer. 

 

9 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

I'm definitely in the "if it happened before, it will likely happen again" camp.

I find it interesting that the flora in much of Central FL is like a carbon copy of my area in the Panhandle. We have an isolated population of Pinus clausa (sand pine) up here, and the second population of Pinus clausa is found right there around Orlando- I also noticed deciduous turkey oaks and other same species of the sand hill scrub as found in my area down there. The natural vegetation is a give away to what the climate is really like. A couple decades of warm winters that allows you to grow royal palms and various tropical trees is not enough for the vegetation to change. What grows naturally there is what survives those cold winters. There's a reason the real tropical/subtropical stuff is naturally found only at the southern end of the peninsula.

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What is the definition (area that it encompasses) of the "South" anyway? I am curious to peoples opinions.

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2 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

What is the definition (area that it encompasses) of the "South" anyway? I am curious to peoples opinions.

My definition of the South is an area that stretches from Texas in the West to Virginia in the East, with Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Virginia making up its northmost states. This region also stretches southward to Key West, Fl.

 

  Also, it does seem to be getting colder throughout much of this region. I am unsure of how long this will last as global warming is already having a large effect on the North, and this trend may move Southward in the future.

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3 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

What is the definition (area that it encompasses) of the "South" anyway? I am curious to peoples opinions.

Are we talking geographic "south" or cultural "south"? My definition varies quite a bit depending on that.

Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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8 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Are we talking geographic "south" or cultural "south"? My definition varies quite a bit depending on that.

Geographic South we are speaking of.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 4/9/2018, 8:54:41, frienduvafrond said:

The sabal palmettos and minors did just fine. I have not seen a minor that looks any worse than it did last fall.  Most of the palmettos that look bad were new plantings, and the skinnier trunked more "dainty" looking ones, but percentage wise, they faired much, much better than the Butia and Chamaerops.

Same for here in Greenville. The newer sabal palmettos are pretty damaged and fried up. I think some of the native minors had some winter damage. I just remember seeing them at Goose Creek State park not too long ago and they didn't look too well

Zone 8a/8b Greenville, NC 

Zone 9a/9b Bluffton, SC

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On 4/9/2018, 6:48:42, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

What is the definition (area that it encompasses) of the "South" anyway? I am curious to peoples opinions.

I consider the South to be all former Confederate states + Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia and parts of Maryland and Missouri. 

Zone 8a/8b Greenville, NC 

Zone 9a/9b Bluffton, SC

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I have noticed since 2010 on that winters are MUCH colder, but summers are seemingly warmer. Aside from events here and there our winters used to be much milder than pre 2010. I haven't heard any complaints from my wife's relatives up north as they seem to be experiencing the same if not slightly warmer winters on average. Hoping this trend ends for us soon.

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LOWS 16/17 12F, 17/18 3F, 18/19 7F, 19/20 20F

Palms growing in my garden: Trachycarpus Fortunei, Chamaerops Humilis, Chamaerops Humilis var. Cerifera, Rhapidophyllum Hystrix, Sabal Palmetto 

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I have noticed since 2010 on that winters are MUCH colder, but summers are seemingly warmer. Aside from events here and there our winters used to be much milder than pre 2010. I haven't heard any complaints from my wife's relatives up north as they seem to be experiencing the same if not slightly warmer winters on average. Hoping this trend ends for us soon.

LOWS 16/17 12F, 17/18 3F, 18/19 7F, 19/20 20F

Palms growing in my garden: Trachycarpus Fortunei, Chamaerops Humilis, Chamaerops Humilis var. Cerifera, Rhapidophyllum Hystrix, Sabal Palmetto 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/4/2018, 6:03:22, mdsonofthesouth said:

I have noticed since 2010 on that winters are MUCH colder, but summers are seemingly warmer. Aside from events here and there our winters used to be much milder than pre 2010. I haven't heard any complaints from my wife's relatives up north as they seem to be experiencing the same if not slightly warmer winters on average. Hoping this trend ends for us soon.

Not too long ago I was looking at my city's weather trends by each day. It's becoming a norm to see 30 degrees below our averages in the winter months. There is some studies out there that are blaming the increasing summer temperatures and decreasing winter temperatures as an effect from climate change. I haven't done too much research on it but it seems believable.  

Zone 8a/8b Greenville, NC 

Zone 9a/9b Bluffton, SC

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8 hours ago, NC_Palms said:

Not too long ago I was looking at my city's weather trends by each day. It's becoming a norm to see 30 degrees below our averages in the winter months. There is some studies out there that are blaming the increasing summer temperatures and decreasing winter temperatures as an effect from climate change. I haven't done too much research on it but it seems believable.  

The temps in the 1980s were crazy, Hot summers and cold winters.

 

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Palms not just a tree also a state of mind

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Seems like besides 2010-11, the FL peninsula has been unusually warm even missing out on hard freezes we've gotten in the Panhandle. I can't tell you how many times over the last several years I've checked the weather in Dec-Feb and Central-South FL is having temps in the mid or even high 80's. I sometimes marvel at how deciduous trees like black cherry, persimmon, or sycamores get enough chilling hours to successfully grow down there. Even while my area was experiencing the polar vortex of early January 2014 with temps in the teens, much of central FL barely or didn't get to freezing. I feel like this winter was a little more what things are supposed to be like down in the peninsula in terms of traditional hardiness zone (although of course I know the assigned hardiness zone is an average and not supposed to be met every year).

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To piggyback on what @Opal92 said, even in a "record cold" winter like January of 2010, the absolute low here was 26F.  That's still a 9b, and consistent with the hardiness zone assigned to this area.  We had cold for much longer than normal, and therefore, plants that normally skate by in our mild winters perished or were severely damaged.    I don't have much memory of January 2014, mostly because there wasn't any significant damage to anything outside and I didn't have to cover my Malayan Dwarf an inordinate amount of the time.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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14 hours ago, NC_Palms said:

Not too long ago I was looking at my city's weather trends by each day. It's becoming a norm to see 30 degrees below our averages in the winter months. There is some studies out there that are blaming the increasing summer temperatures and decreasing winter temperatures as an effect from climate change. I haven't done too much research on it but it seems believable.  

 

We have seen a good mess of 30 bellow average temps the past few years.But we have yet to go bellow our hardiness zone, hopefully we get a break from these winters soon...

LOWS 16/17 12F, 17/18 3F, 18/19 7F, 19/20 20F

Palms growing in my garden: Trachycarpus Fortunei, Chamaerops Humilis, Chamaerops Humilis var. Cerifera, Rhapidophyllum Hystrix, Sabal Palmetto 

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Winters have been longer and way snowier here, but not necessarily colder.

But March, which isn’t even supposed to be a winter month, has definitely trended colder in recent years, meanwhile December seems to be getting warmer.

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