February Weather Outlook

[Palm crazy]

 NOAA February outlook. Not to bad for most. Warmer & colder in the right places. The warmer than normal temps reach me starting on 2/7/2018.

Edited February 1, 2018 by Palm crazy

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

 NOAA February outlook. Not to bad for most. Warmer & colder in the right places. The warmer than normal temps reach me starting on 2/7/2018.

I myself would paint S. Cal and all low elevation parts of Az in the 80-90% above normal category..

January just ended with several spots near L.A. topping the high 80s/ low 90s over that last couple days. Lake forest set a record of 93f.. in JANUARY. UCLA topped 89f and Pinnacles Nat. Monument topped 84f yesterday.. 84  is that spots avreage for June. 

We've been in the low 80s  since last Friday, with places like Flagstaff, up in the mountains, in the low 60s.. with lows in the lower 20s/ high teens the last few days.. as for snow?? What little had fallen up there a week or so ago is gone. 

While it stays in the lower 80s here the next few days, mid 80s, possibly a day or two ( at least) in the 86-88f range are looking more likely later next week.  Accuweather even has a day at 90f forecasted in this part of town.. W.U. currently has 88 as the hottest forecasted high in the next 10 days for Chandler. Phoenix proper can run 1-4f hotter then here on such a day.

Spring? I'd say the odds in favor of skipping it this year are looking wayy up. According to data from the National Phenology Network posted on the 29th, we're running roughly 20 days or so ahead of average on the Spring Leaf Index Anomaly this year.. 

[mdsonofthesouth]

We have been bellow average since late October, and every time I update the forcast it only gets worse. It all started with that REALLY early frost.... But I have to look forward to highs 10F+ bellow average with some nights still being considered crazy for average dead of January.

Edited February 1, 2018 by mdsonofthesouth

[Bill H2DB]

Here's a long term look at   Orlando's  February weather .

 

Orlando FEB by Bill H, on Flickr

 

[happ]

The bad news for the Southwest is continued drought. The rain season is generally over by early April so if we lose another winter month then it will come down to a March "miracle". After 5 yrs of serious drought conditions followed by last year's above normal rainfall, this year is already the driest in history for SoCal. Only 2.45 at my location since July 2017. Arizona can look forward to monsoonal showers this summer but that moisture rarely makes it beyond the coastal mountain ranges w/ isolated thunderstorms mostly in the desert. A dry warm winter may be beneficial to subtropical palms [no wet feet] but the ecosystem suffers and water restrictions could be imposed again this summer

 

[Palm crazy]

I have a feeling it might be an early spring for my neck of the wood too. I'm already seeing some early leaves starting to open and some perennial are up early this winter, like tall irises some with blooms already, poppies, agapanthus, etc. Next week here it will be 10 degrees above normal. However, it pretty much rain all of January except for 4 days

I hope you guys in S.Cali get a little more rain before the dry season hits. 

Edited February 1, 2018 by Palm crazy

[happ]

1 hour ago, Palm crazy said:

I have a feeling it might be an early spring for my neck of the wood too. I'm already seeing some early leaves starting to open and some perennial are up early this winter, like tall irises some with blooms already, poppies, agapanthus, etc. Next week here it will be 10 degrees above normal. However, it pretty much rain all of January except for 4 days

I hope you guys in S.Cali get a little more rain before the dry season hits. 

Southern half of Oregon is also pretty dry/ very little mountain snowfall. Last year 'atmospheric rivers' dropped record rainfall/ snowfall esp in NorCal. Thankfully most reservoirs are close to capacity. Plumeria/ dombeya still in flower. Sorry for poor photo   

Edited February 1, 2018 by happ

[nick206]

Looking at the 15 day forecast im just glad to get a short break from the rain. So far this year one system after another has landed in the PNW. The high 50s low 60s will just be a nice bonus.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Very dry here,  but 14 day temp outlook looks good temp and precipitation wise.  One forecast has us at 81 on Tuesday.  

[Silas_Sancona]

12 hours ago, happ said:

The bad news for the Southwest is continued drought. The rain season is generally over by early April so if we lose another winter month then it will come down to a March "miracle". After 5 yrs of serious drought conditions followed by last year's above normal rainfall, this year is already the driest in history for SoCal. Only 2.45 at my location since July 2017. Arizona can look forward to monsoonal showers this summer but that moisture rarely makes it beyond the coastal mountain ranges w/ isolated thunderstorms mostly in the desert. A dry warm winter may be beneficial to subtropical palms [no wet feet] but the ecosystem suffers and water restrictions could be imposed again this summer

 

Regarding drought relief brought by Monsoonal rainfall, it is more like we're lucky IF we see much during the Monsoon here, especially in and around Phoenix. Monsoonal storms by pattern are brief, and a good rain can be far and few between. Fountain Hills might score an inch, maybe close to two, while the rest of the Valley sees only .10". It's really frustrating when that same storm, full of rain, dies out completely as it moves toward your house.. and it happens more often than not.

In the two years i've lived here in Chandler, I've counted less than 5 of what I'd consider "decent" summer rainfall events, and by decent, I say a good storm that might drop .25-.50" of rain. Within 2 days, most of that .25" of rainfall is sucked dry from the soil. 

If, like last year, we don't see consistency in monsoonal events, evenly spread over the July- end of Sept. season,  Iit can be hard to keep up with watering things.

On the other hand, Tucson and points south, or up in the mountains can ( ..and did, last year) fare better but it is rare that a monsoon seasons worth of rainfall impacts reservoir levels much. When I took a trip into the old Pubelo about mid- July last summer, Tucson, and the surrounding mountains were lush and green. One of my favorite nursery stops there had a similar degree of summer weed growth as id see in my yard in Bradenton, FL. All was much drier..and weed-less up here.

Regardless,  im already starting to take notes on the overall pattern closely as we head into spring.. There is some research suggesting that dry winters/ low ( or no) snowfall in the mountains can tip the scales in favor of a positive monsoon season. Part of the research looks at how dry weather and lack of snow cover going into the spring helps build a stronger subtropical high that helps initiate an earlier and more robust monsoonal flow out of Mexico. 

Years where cold/cool weather and lingering snow cover lingered into the spring hamper/ delay the onset/ establishment of this pre monsoonal pattern..  Dry years, can do the opposite.. not always, but.. Certainly not a guarantee.. esp. this far out,  and with the crazy weather patterns of late... but paying it closer attention this year,  just in case.   

[mthteh1916]

Don't count on it just yet. The Stratospheric vortex is about to split in two, which will makes it way down in the surface vortex and weaken it and cause lobes to break off and head south into Eurasia and eastern North America (almost never goes west based on years of data). Models don't handle the vortex well until after the split into the surface vortex which means model volatility until mid Feb. Point is pay no attention to forecasts for Feb at this point. If lobes of the surface vortex break off and head south, you could be looking at worse cold in the Southeast and eastern US than early January.

[mdsonofthesouth]

Our forcast til at least the 16th looks low even for January, not as bad as it was a few days ago but still depressing. Hope we are spared from anymore events like late Dec early Jan as I think that would be the final straw for my sick palms and might knock over my healthy ones. Who knows I might be palm-less come spring....

Edited February 2, 2018 by mdsonofthesouth

[happ]

11 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Regarding drought relief brought by Monsoonal rainfall, it is more like we're lucky IF we see much during the Monsoon here, especially in and around Phoenix. Monsoonal storms by pattern are brief, and a good rain can be far and few between. Fountain Hills might score an inch, maybe close to two, while the rest of the Valley sees only .10". It's really frustrating when that same storm, full of rain, dies out completely as it moves toward your house.. and it happens more often than not.

In the two years i've lived here in Chandler, I've counted less than 5 of what I'd consider "decent" summer rainfall events, and by decent, I say a good storm that might drop .25-.50" of rain. Within 2 days, most of that .25" of rainfall is sucked dry from the soil. 

If, like last year, we don't see consistency in monsoonal events, evenly spread over the July- end of Sept. season,  Iit can be hard to keep up with watering things.

On the other hand, Tucson and points south, or up in the mountains can ( ..and did, last year) fare better but it is rare that a monsoon seasons worth of rainfall impacts reservoir levels much. When I took a trip into the old Pubelo about mid- July last summer, Tucson, and the surrounding mountains were lush and green. One of my favorite nursery stops there had a similar degree of summer weed growth as id see in my yard in Bradenton, FL. All was much drier..and weed-less up here.

Regardless,  im already starting to take notes on the overall pattern closely as we head into spring.. There is some research suggesting that dry winters/ low ( or no) snowfall in the mountains can tip the scales in favor of a positive monsoon season. Part of the research looks at how dry weather and lack of snow cover going into the spring helps build a stronger subtropical high that helps initiate an earlier and more robust monsoonal flow out of Mexico. 

Years where cold/cool weather and lingering snow cover lingered into the spring hamper/ delay the onset/ establishment of this pre monsoonal pattern..  Dry years, can do the opposite.. not always, but.. Certainly not a guarantee.. esp. this far out,  and with the crazy weather patterns of late... but paying it closer attention this year,  just in case.   

I wasn't aware how variable/ fickle the monsoon can be in Arizona. It can produce the bulk of yearly rainfall even in Sonoran desert areas of California but when considering that annual rainfall is often under 5 inches for the Imperial/ Coachella valleys a few heavy thunderstorms can constitute the rain year. What I hope for each summer are tropical storms. During the El Nino summer/ early autumn of 2015 the remnants of two tropical systems produced considerable rainfall even in coastal SoCal. These dying hurricanes off western Mexico generally lose characteristics [ie. high wind] other than high surf but can drop a ton of water. Cyclones moving up the Gulf of California can be especially impactful in Arizona/ New Mexico.

I mention the monsoon because of recent discussion of the possibility of Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the northern hemisphere this month. My understanding is that SSW is sinking/ warming air out of high latitudes that disrupts the polar vortex that mthteh is referring to and can cause significant effects for several months including tropical activity later in the summer. The reverse easterly flow of high altitude winds/ trade winds can mean a good amount of rainfall for the West Coast. The easterly QBO [quasi-biennial oscillation] is occurring now. This is a bit too technical for me but the long term results may mean a good summer rain season for the Southwest.    

[Palm crazy]

5 hours ago, mthteh1916 said:

Don't count on it just yet. The Stratospheric vortex is about to split in two, which will makes it way down in the surface vortex and weaken it and cause lobes to break off and head south into Eurasia and eastern North America (almost never goes west based on years of data). Models don't handle the vortex well until after the split into the surface vortex which means model volatility until mid Feb. Point is pay no attention to forecasts for Feb at this point. If lobes of the surface vortex break off and head south, you could be looking at worse cold in the Southeast and eastern US than early January.

It will be cold for the northern parts of the states but the deep south will be safer than they were in January. Here an interesting map I found that shows you where the cold will be in January. This map is the native range for the groundhog. And did you know that the groundhog weather prediction is only supposed to apply to groundhogs native range?

Base on this information then this headline is correct... Groundhog Says: 6 More Weeks of Winter! NOAA Says: Not So for the Southern U.S.

 If another unpredicted vortex breaks free like it did in January that it could speak trouble for the Southern U.S.  But seriously all kidding aside, all we can really do is wait and see what happens and be on the alert. 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/groundhog-says-6-more-weeks-winter-noaa-says-not-so-southern-us

[Silas_Sancona]

8 hours ago, happ said:

I wasn't aware how variable/ fickle the monsoon can be in Arizona. It can produce the bulk of yearly rainfall even in Sonoran desert areas of California but when considering that annual rainfall is often under 5 inches for the Imperial/ Coachella valleys a few heavy thunderstorms can constitute the rain year. What I hope for each summer are tropical storms. During the El Nino summer/ early autumn of 2015 the remnants of two tropical systems produced considerable rainfall even in coastal SoCal. These dying hurricanes off western Mexico generally lose characteristics [ie. high wind] other than high surf but can drop a ton of water. Cyclones moving up the Gulf of California can be especially impactful in Arizona/ New Mexico.

I mention the monsoon because of recent discussion of the possibility of Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the northern hemisphere this month. My understanding is that SSW is sinking/ warming air out of high latitudes that disrupts the polar vortex that mthteh is referring to and can cause significant effects for several months including tropical activity later in the summer. The reverse easterly flow of high altitude winds/ trade winds can mean a good amount of rainfall for the West Coast. The easterly QBO [quasi-biennial oscillation] is occurring now. This is a bit too technical for me but the long term results may mean a good summer rain season for the Southwest.    

No doubt.. fickle as they can be, summer rainfall, any amount of it is highly beneficial over a majority of the Sonoran Desert, even in our area. Still, it is often so scant that it's hard to really be impactfull to reservoir levels, unless, ofcourse, as you mentioned, the East Pacific sends us numerous gifts and that extra boost to overall rainfall totals. I also place alot of hope in seeing good rainfall via a positive Hurricane season for the region each year. While weather has intregued me since roughly 1982, i have monitored it attentively each summer since the late 80s. Hoping the dice do indeed yield a good season ahead, for everyone.. not just the mountains, S.E. AZ, or the Imperial Valley. Santa Barbra, and most of the Santa Clara Valley experienced some brief, monsoonal Iike storm events last year.

Looking at it from a hypothetical.. and perhaps dreamy angle, i'd also like to see the overall summer pattern shift closer to what one would currently encounter as you head further south, ie in Hermosillo, Guaymas, or Alamos, Mexico.. or, simply, the heart of the monsoonal position noses further north  and west to bring most of Arizona, N.M, and ..say everyone south/ east of a line extending from San Francisco to Denver, better rainfall potential each summer. That might mean winters do indeed get drier but, if say more post hurricane moisture wrung itself out over a broader region each.. or many more summers than not, it would at least partially offset any potential deficits experienced in the winter.

I guess you could say I was hooked on the summer storm experience when we had a rare, actual " monsoon- type" of electrical storm in San Jose in September of 1990. I sat and watched it build  over the Diablos all day until a lightning bolt zapped the telephone pole positioned out by the road, just to the right of our front yard.. That same storm lasted all night and provided one of the most remarkable light shows I have ever seen.  It also took out 7 other transformers along that same section of the road we lived on that night.

Only storms I chased  while i lived in Kansas were more impressive. 

[mdsonofthesouth]

On 2/2/2018, 5:03:31, Palm crazy said:

It will be cold for the northern parts of the states but the deep south will be safer than they were in January. Here an interesting map I found that shows you where the cold will be in January. This map is the native range for the groundhog. And did you know that the groundhog weather prediction is only supposed to apply to groundhogs native range?

Base on this information then this headline is correct... Groundhog Says: 6 More Weeks of Winter! NOAA Says: Not So for the Southern U.S.

 If another unpredicted vortex breaks free like it did in January that it could speak trouble for the Southern U.S.  But seriously all kidding aside, all we can really do is wait and see what happens and be on the alert. 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/groundhog-says-6-more-weeks-winter-noaa-says-not-so-southern-us

Sure hope its wrong but looking at the weather its not. Thankfully its only 1 more month, unless we get another freak march storm like last year...

[Matthew92]

Looking like at least half of February is going to be above average for me. 10 day forecast shows highs in the mid to high 60's for almost every day. I'm dreading that things are going to leaf/bud out too early only to be killed by a late Feb or March freeze.

[PalmTreeDude]

For me, lows are in the 28 - 29 range, for maximum lows, and the highest lows are in the 40s, from what is foretasted here so far. It is raining right now... 

[Estlander]

10 hours ago, Opal92 said:

I'm dreading that things are going to leaf/bud out too early only to be killed by a late Feb or March freeze.

Not sure how precise predicting weather so far ahead can be, but Accuweather March forecast for Niceville looks pretty good:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/niceville-fl/32578/month/2245511?monyr=3/01/2018

 

 

[Matthew92]

9 hours ago, Estlander said:

Not sure how precise predicting weather so far ahead can be, but Accuweather March forecast for Niceville looks pretty good:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/niceville-fl/32578/month/2245511?monyr=3/01/2018

 

Well, if it is going to be this warm, I might just need to go with it and hope that we don't have a cold spell bad enough to damage my citrus when they bud out. Unfortunately, I may already see buds swelling on the stems. 

[happ]

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Probably not good news for rain w/ drought conditions extending east into Texas/ Southern states.  For California, Dr Cohen suggests possible change toward the start of March:

"And if there is one persistent pattern this winter it has been the warm and dry conditions in the Western US and maybe regardless of remote forcings the persistence is too great to overcome, helped in part by the warm sea surface temperatures off the US West Coast. Again regardless, I expect model forecasts be volatile in the coming weeks."

[Matthew92]

26 minutes ago, happ said:

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Probably not good news for rain w/ drought conditions extending east into Texas/ Southern states.  For California, Dr Cohen suggests possible change toward the start of March:

"And if there is one persistent pattern this winter it has been the warm and dry conditions in the Western US and maybe regardless of remote forcings the persistence is too great to overcome, helped in part by the warm sea surface temperatures off the US West Coast. Again regardless, I expect model forecasts be volatile in the coming weeks."

They say one of the best analogs for this upcoming polar vortex disruption is the infamous early January 1985 event: wow.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Opal92

[Tropicdoc]

Are we really still trusting all these models and forecasts?

last map I saw had me at a warmer than usual winter... as we all know didnt happen... past 7 days I don’t trust any weather forecasting

sorry for the snark but 17 degrees will do that to you

[happ]

There's discussion on the possibility of another El Nino forming. It is a rare ENSO event considering last Nino was in 2015. I remember that California was in dire fire conditions w/ a weird wildfire crossing over a busy freeway  https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/17/us/california-freeway-fire/index.html. Hurricane Dolores took care of the fire and suppressed the fire season nicely. Then Lydia dumped several more inches in September.

 

[happ]

Here's a peek perhaps

 

[mdsonofthesouth]

My feb outlook just got alot better about a few days ago. Still bellow average but no where near as bad as they claimed. Hoping we are in the clear.

[Matthew92]

This is hands down the warmest February I've witnessed living here over 10 years. It's like a switch was flipped as soon as January was over. High 60's and 70's ever since. This is March or even April weather. Much of the time here, February is as bad as January with hard freezes. Things are already budding out: saucer magnolias and red maples blooming, and my citrus are just starting to flush out with new leaves.

It's all fun and games until there is another freeze. In the past, I've had freezing temps even in early March that nipped new growth off my citrus. The thing is, there is no sign of even a cool down in the forecast! Even looking at the long range GFS run, all red anomalies straight into March. Crazy!

 

[Matthew92]

Also, just got 10 inches of rain ending yesterday. Rained for about 24 hours straight! I am located right under where it says Eglin Air Force Base. Even though it shows the highest totals just East of me, 10 inches is what my weather station read.

[happ]

The West/ East dipole is over.  Ideally California will receive at least modest rain/ snow per La Nina signal. Enjoy the Baja ridge.

[PalmTreeDude]

Lowest low for the next week here is 32 Degrees F. We are having day time temperatures in the 60s and 70s more frequently now. By the time March comes, day temperatures are usually comfortable here.