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What have you heard about this winter's forecast for the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida?

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I am curious, what have you heard about the long term forecast for this winter for the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida?  I have heard conflicting things.  A couple of sources I have heard from or read said that this winter will by warmer and drier than normal, and a couple of sources said it will be chilly and wet.  So, what have you heard?

John

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I'm in FL, they said 'warmer' b'cuz of 'La Nina'

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6 hours ago, NatureGirl said:

I'm in FL, they said 'warmer' b'cuz of 'La Nina'

Sounds good to me!! :greenthumb::yay:

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I've heard warmer than average, but the cold fronts are starting pretty early :(

 

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16 hours ago, NatureGirl said:

I'm in FL, they said 'warmer' b'cuz of 'La Nina'

I hope you are right.  I want my trunking Green Malayan Dwarf Coconut Palm to make it through this winter with flying colors and start flowering and fruiting next year, and I would like my smaller younger in ground coconut palms to make it through the winter too.

John

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2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

I've heard warmer than average, but the cold fronts are starting pretty early :(

 

That's what worries me too.  Here we got down to 50.1F at my place this morning and down to 45F at the airport.  I estimate my normal low this time of the year to be 66F, and the normal low at the airport now is 63F, so these temps we had this morning are really chilly for Corpus Christi in late Oct., but we did get up into the low 80'sF today, which is where our normal highs are.  The forecast for this coming Sunday morning is for 40F at the airport after the next front on Friday, which is 2F below the record low for that date.

John

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59 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

The forecast for this coming Sunday morning is for 40F at the airport after the next front on Friday, which is 2F below the record low for that date.

John

Where are you getting this figure? NWS is forecasting a low of 48F on Sunday morning for Corpus and 39F/41F for Houston (IAH/Hobby Airport). NWS seems to have the coldest forecast, other weather sites are predicting lows in the mid 40s for Houston. 

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38 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Where are you getting this figure? NWS is forecasting a low of 48F on Sunday morning for Corpus and 39F/41F for Houston (IAH/Hobby Airport). NWS seems to have the coldest forecast, other weather sites are predicting lows in the mid 40s for Houston. 

Jonathan,

I am getting that from the local weather men.  One station is predicting a low of 40F and the other station is now predicting a low of 44F, after earlier also predicting a low of 40F.  I hope you and the NWS are right.  Lately, I have been working for the owner of the local wholesale nursery, and he told us the other day that in the 10 day forecast going to next weekend, that there is a low predicted for us here in the 30'sF.  I certainly hope that is not the case.  This is way too early in the season for us to even have lows in the mid 40'sF, much less the 30'sF to around 40F, when our normal lows this time of the year are running from the low to 60'sF (inland Corpus Christi) to the upper 60'sF (beaches).

John

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On 10/25/2017, 9:46:11, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

That's what worries me too.  Here we got down to 50.1F at my place this morning and down to 45F at the airport.  I estimate my normal low this time of the year to be 66F, and the normal low at the airport now is 63F, so these temps we had this morning are really chilly for Corpus Christi in late Oct., but we did get up into the low 80'sF today, which is where our normal highs are.  The forecast for this coming Sunday morning is for 40F at the airport after the next front on Friday, which is 2F below the record low for that date.

John

We were potentially going to flirt with our record low overnight on Wednesday, but I bottomed off at 56F here at the house.  Our average low in January is 50F.  We'll be below that on at least two days next week if the forecast holds up.  I'm hoping the early cold fronts don't drop the water temperature too much.  The last 2 winters stayed pretty mild until late December, so when the cold fronts came in January, the water temperatures were still relatively warm.  It seems like that mitigated some of the cold as my property has bottomed off at 34F the last 2 years.

 

201710262225_weather.png

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16 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

We were potentially going to flirt with our record low overnight on Wednesday, but I bottomed off at 56F here at the house.  Our average low in January is 50F.  We'll be below that on at least two days next week if the forecast holds up.  I'm hoping the early cold fronts don't drop the water temperature too much.  The last 2 winters stayed pretty mild until late December, so when the cold fronts came in January, the water temperatures were still relatively warm.  It seems like that mitigated some of the cold as my property has bottomed off at 34F the last 2 years.

 

201710262225_weather.png

I estimate the average low in Jan. here where I live to also be 50F.  The average low at the airport here in Jan. is 47F.  So, it is really early for us to be getting this chilly, especially at night.  The daytime highs with the front are predicted to be in the upper 60'sF to 70F, which is chilly enough for this time of year, but it is the overnight lows that are going to be WAY BELOW NORMAL this early in the season.  We have had a very dry fall, and these fronts are coming in very dry and lowering our relative humidity and dew points down to dessert conditions, which is why we are predicted to have cool to mild days and very chilly nights.  I think it must be unusually early for you guys in Florida to have such fronts coming in now too.  When I lived in Coral Springs for a couple of years, I don't remember fronts like this coming in until about mid to late Dec.

John

Edited by Mr. Coconut Palm
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Hopefully all these early cold fronts don’t mean a harsher winter for us. While 40s and 50s aren’t pleasant temps for tropicals, at least we haven’t gotten any killing temperatures yet. The coconut palms that are around my area still seem to be growing just like they were during the summer. Luckily here in the Valley (if I’m not mistaken?) we hit our minimum low temperatures during the morning hours - which get cut off by the sun’s rising fairly quickly. 

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I think this discussion is a good example of what I came in here to say.  The 3 month outlook from NOAA's climate prediction center is not a weather forecast.  These are the trends and the likely averages over the next 3.5 months, or whichever projection you choose.  However, the short-term is that a cold front can bust through at any time, like this week.  It may be lows of 60's through past christmas for some of you, but if the jet stream takes a crap you could get 3 or 4 nights of arctic BS tunneling down the great plains and up your....  Well, let's just say you could have a cold snap.

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58 minutes ago, Funkthulhu said:

I think this discussion is a good example of what I came in here to say.  The 3 month outlook from NOAA's climate prediction center is not a weather forecast.  These are the trends and the likely averages over the next 3.5 months, or whichever projection you choose.  However, the short-term is that a cold front can bust through at any time, like this week.  It may be lows of 60's through past christmas for some of you, but if the jet stream takes a crap you could get 3 or 4 nights of arctic BS tunneling down the great plains and up your....  Well, let's just say you could have a cold snap.

   What he said ..... !

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It has been beautiful the last couple days in SW Florida, highs in the mid to upper 70's, lows in the mid 50's, dew points in the 50's. Yes a bit early for this but it has happened before. And of course I just had knee surgery so I cannot take advantage of this nice cool weather and work in the garden :huh:.  The good thing is another cold front and a tropical depression from the Caribbean will provide some rain tomorrow here in South Florida so the rainy season has been extended a bit!

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3 hours ago, Funkthulhu said:

I think this discussion is a good example of what I came in here to say.  The 3 month outlook from NOAA's climate prediction center is not a weather forecast.  These are the trends and the likely averages over the next 3.5 months, or whichever projection you choose.  However, the short-term is that a cold front can bust through at any time, like this week.  It may be lows of 60's through past christmas for some of you, but if the jet stream takes a crap you could get 3 or 4 nights of arctic BS tunneling down the great plains and up your....  Well, let's just say you could have a cold snap.

Well said. It only takes one event to set you back. The weather in East Central Florida has been beautiful lately. The Wednesday cool down halted 199 consecutive days of temperatures 80 degrees and above in the Melbourne area.

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39.2F in my yard this Sunday morning, and 36F at the airport, where the previous record (42F) was broken by 6F!!!  WAY TOO EARLY FOR THESE KIND OF TEMPS!  The normal low now is 62F at the airport, and I estimate 65F at my place near the water.  We reached 71F at my place for a high yesterday and 67F at the airport, with a normal high now at my place of about 81F and a normal high at the airport of 82F.  It wasn't that this was a horrible very early Arctic front, but rather a "cold" Western Canada front that was extremely dry combined with our very unusually dry Sept. and Oct. (which are supposed to be our two wettest months) that dropped our relative humidity the other day to 19% when it should be about 60% or more this time of year and drastically dropped our dew points WAY BELOW NORMAL that caused this horrible record breaking cold at night.  We are literally in dessert like conditions now with mild to warm days and very cold nights!  We are supposed to be back in the low 80'sF again tomorrow for highs going up to the upper 80'sF by the weekend, and our lows are supposed to return to normal after tonight with south and southeast winds bringing back some of our normal Gulf humidity.

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36 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

39.2F in my yard this Sunday morning, and 36F at the airport, where the previous record (42F) was broken by 6F!!!  WAY TOO EARLY FOR THESE KIND OF TEMPS!  The normal low now is 62F at the airport, and I estimate 65F at my place near the water.  We reached 71F at my place for a high yesterday and 67F at the airport, with a normal high now at my place of about 81F and a normal high at the airport of 82F.  It wasn't that this was a horrible very early Arctic front, but rather a "cold" Western Canada front that was extremely dry combined with our very unusually dry Sept. and Oct. (which are supposed to be our two wettest months) that dropped our relative humidity the other day to 19% when it should be about 60% or more this time of year and drastically dropped our dew points WAY BELOW NORMAL that caused this horrible record breaking cold at night.  We are literally in dessert like conditions now with mild to warm days and very cold nights!  We are supposed to be back in the low 80'sF again tomorrow for highs going up to the upper 80'sF by the weekend, and our lows are supposed to return to normal after tonight with south and southeast winds bringing back some of our normal Gulf humidity.

Wow looks like your area got slammed. Even Port Aransas got down to 47-48F while most of the rest of the coast stayed above 50F. 

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Heavy frost and low of 34 at the house yesterday morning. Very heavy frost and 31 at the nursery.  

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I have an update.  It actually got down to 35F at the airport here in Corpus Christi, not 36F like I thought earlier, thereby breaking the old record by 7F!  That is REALLY shattering an old record, especially this early in the season.  Usually, when a record is broken, it is only by a couple of degrees, but 7F is shocking.  What is really weird is that areas more inland and also areas north of here didn't drop below the upper 30'sF to around 40F.

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4 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

I have an update.  It actually got down to 35F at the airport here in Corpus Christi, not 36F like I thought earlier, thereby breaking the old record by 7F!  That is REALLY shattering an old record, especially this early in the season.  Usually, when a record is broken, it is only by a couple of degrees, but 7F is shocking.  What is really weird is that areas more inland and also areas north of here didn't drop below the upper 30'sF to around 40F.

Yep, I don't understand that either. Same thing I've seen in the Houston area, with Brazoria county vs further inland and north areas. Even if low temps remained warmer, it is still quite a low bottom out considering the location. 

Dry air is a killer indeed.

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That is very odd.  Corpus hasn't been getting any breaks this year from cold fronts.  I remember that big front in January slammed us really hard the first night and then the next night kinda skipped over Houston and really plunged the mercury in Corpus below freezing as well.  

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13 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

That is very odd.  Corpus hasn't been getting any breaks this year from cold fronts.  I remember that big front in January slammed us really hard the first night and then the next night kinda skipped over Houston and really plunged the mercury in Corpus below freezing as well.  

Joseph,

You are so right.  As I recall, back in Jan. our local weathermen were only forecasting a low in the low 30'sF for my area, and yet the temp bottomed out at 27.2F the first morning and 28.5F the second morning with a total of about 12 to 14 hours below freezing over the 2 nights.  If we had only bottomed out in the low 30'sF, I don't think I would have lost any of my in ground coconut palms, not even my really young small ones, but as it was, only my big Green Malayan Dwarf survived, and all my younger ones eventually died, even my 7ft. tall Maypan and my 9.5ft.tall King Palm (Archon. alexandrae), which I thought for sure would have come through the freeze with only moderate injury.  It seems like we got it even worse here back then than the upper Texas Coast around Galveston had it.  Other than those 2 back to back very cold nights, the rest of the winter here was VERY MILD, and just 48 hours after the freeze, the high here was 82F!

John

Edited by Mr. Coconut Palm
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22 hours ago, AnTonY said:

Yep, I don't understand that either. Same thing I've seen in the Houston area, with Brazoria county vs further inland and north areas. Even if low temps remained warmer, it is still quite a low bottom out considering the location. 

Dry air is a killer indeed.

Anthony,

It has been SOOO DRY HERE for the last 2 months.  It's as if the rain spigot just got turned off right after the hurricane in Aug.  Our humidity and dew points over the last few days have been reminiscent of what I grew up with in Abilene in West Texas, which is on the edge of the dessert.

John

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7 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Joseph,

You are so right.  As I recall, back in Jan. our local weathermen were only forecasting a low in the low 30'sF for my area, and yet the temp bottomed out at 27.2F the first morning and 28.5F the second morning with a total of about 12 to 14 hours below freezing over the 2 nights.  If we had only bottomed out in the low 30'sF, I don't think I would have lost any of my in ground coconut palms, not even my really young small ones, but as it was, only my big Green Malayan Dwarf survived, and all my younger ones eventually died, even my 7ft. tall Maypan and my 9.5ft.tall King Palm (Archon. alexandrae), which I thought for sure would have come through the freeze with only moderate injury.  It seems like we got it even worse here back then than the upper Texas Coast around Galveston had it.  Other than those 2 back to back very cold nights, the rest of the winter here was VERY MILD, and just 48 hours after the freeze, the high here was 82F!

John

Jan 8 was our last freeze, which was a full month earlier than the previous record in the dfw area. Very unusual. 

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On ‎10‎/‎31‎/‎2017‎ ‎6‎:‎43‎:‎25‎, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

Jan 8 was our last freeze, which was a full month earlier than the previous record in the dfw area. Very unusual. 

Wow, when I grew up in Abilene, back in the '70's and early '80's, it wasn't unusual for us to have a frost or light freeze as late as the latter part of March or even the first part of April.  I remember back in the early '90's, Abilene had significant snowfall of several inches the first part of April.  The Dallas area back in those days probably would get a freeze as late as mid or late March.  The climate sure has changed since then.  Back when I was a boy in Abilene, we would get down to the single digits at least once each winter, now I think it is rare for Abilene to ever get below 12F or 13F!

John

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Correct, Abilene is USDA 8A just two degrees colder than most of the DFW area.  

On another note we broke two daily/monthly records this week, 94F on Thursday and 90F today @ DFW airport.  Now DFW has officially registered a high of 90F or higher every single month of the year....

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The temps in these recent cold outbreaks (going back to last winter season) have been so illogical. As of post time, areas in the San Antonio-Austin area, far inland from the coast, are sitting in upper 30s. Yet Houston Hobby, closer to the Gulf, and in Houston's heat island, is down to 33F? 

Edited by AnTonY
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12 hours ago, AnTonY said:

The temps in these recent cold outbreaks (going back to last winter season) have been so illogical. As of post time, areas in the San Antonio-Austin area, far inland from the coast, are sitting in upper 30s. Yet Houston Hobby, closer to the Gulf, and in Houston's heat island, is down to 33F? 

It is all in the tip of the dip.

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Well, i hate reviving this thread but Texas is going to recieve quite an extended cold spell even though the absolute lows arent going to be record cold. The forecast keeps moving but we're close enough to start believing it now. Even south Louisiana will dip into the low 20s and stay in the 30s for more than a day.

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@TexasColdHardyPalms Looks like an extended "below average" spell here, with lows in the 30's and 40's for about a week starting New Year's.

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Yall too? We are experiencing 20+ bellow average temps here too. That cold front @TexasColdHardyPalms  warned me about is staying longer than expected....

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Right now, here's what the forecast looks like.  Nothing outlandish at this point, but a pretty long time period to be "below average" :

20171228_weather.png

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14 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Right now, here's what the forecast looks like.  Nothing outlandish at this point, but a pretty long time period to be "below average" :

 

We just installed protection on the borderline and expensive plants. Also rolling out frost cloth inside the banana house to keep from ruining the entire crop which is our spring money maker. 

Screenshot_20171228-144321.png

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9 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

We just installed protection on the borderline and expensive plants. Also rolling out frost cloth inside the banana house to keep from ruining the entire crop which is our spring money maker. 

Screenshot_20171228-144321.png

That does not look good at all.

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@TexasColdHardyPalms My coldest days were all revised slightly upward at last check, but that has a week to change.  Either way, I hope everything gets through without any damage.

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2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

@TexasColdHardyPalms My coldest days were all revised slightly upward at last check, but that has a week to change.  Either way, I hope everything gets through without any damage.

Yea, we've been playing that yoyo game too. They went up last night and back down this morning to the worst yet. 

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Time to start freaking out

Lows 12/31 - 1/3

Houston: 29, 24, 23, 28

Corpus Christi: 37, 31, 29, 35

Brownsville: 42, 33, 31, 34

Also this is the 1/1-1/3 high/low forecast for coastal Mexico:

La Pesca (23*N): 57/42; 54/44; 54/46

Tampico (22*N): 64/50; 61/50; 59/50

With such a long duration freeze, I doubt water or any heat island effect is going to help much. This is probably going to kill most 9b/10a stuff in Houston and potentially damage queen palms in the far northern and western suburbs. I'm especially concerned about Brownsville...common landscape trees like Ficus and Delonix regia are going to take a hit if it gets much colder. Not to mention the coconuts. 

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If forecasts keep falling I could be seeing the coldest temps since 2010. The last 7 winters have been a blessing but I knew the mild temps wouldn’t last forever. Looks like it’s payback time for a lot of us. I guess Irma was just the setup.

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2 hours ago, Xenon said:

Time to start freaking out

Lows 12/31 - 1/3

Houston: 29, 24, 23, 28

Corpus Christi: 37, 31, 29, 35

Brownsville: 42, 33, 31, 34

Also this is the 1/1-1/3 high/low forecast for coastal Mexico:

La Pesca (23*N): 57/42; 54/44; 54/46

Tampico (22*N): 64/50; 61/50; 59/50

With such a long duration freeze, I doubt water or any heat island effect is going to help much. This is probably going to kill most 9b/10a stuff in Houston and potentially damage queen palms in the far northern and western suburbs. I'm especially concerned about Brownsville...common landscape trees like Ficus and Delonix regia are going to take a hit if it gets much colder. Not to mention the coconuts. 

Not good at all! Here in N. Brownsville, my young Delonix regia got stripped bald from the snow but is still alive. This cold is definitely going to be the finishing blow :( Very sad! Fortunately, I know I can replace it easily. Crossing fingers for our bigger trees. Hopefully spring will be enough to heal the damage. 

My cocos are probably going to be indoors for this. So if worst case scenario happens to our cocos, may my two younglings pave the way for a new beginning. 

 

Obviously the lower RGV has seen these temps before, but correct me if I’m wrong, have we ever seen three or four consecutive nights below 40?! The forecast for my town calls for four nights in the 30s. Two will reach freezing, one of them at 33, so might as well say that three will touch freezing. If this isn’t bad enough, it’s going to be wet! This is awful! 

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3 hours ago, Xenon said:

Time to start freaking out

Lows 12/31 - 1/3

Houston: 29, 24, 23, 28

Corpus Christi: 37, 31, 29, 35

Brownsville: 42, 33, 31, 34

Also this is the 1/1-1/3 high/low forecast for coastal Mexico:

La Pesca (23*N): 57/42; 54/44; 54/46

Tampico (22*N): 64/50; 61/50; 59/50

With such a long duration freeze, I doubt water or any heat island effect is going to help much. This is probably going to kill most 9b/10a stuff in Houston and potentially damage queen palms in the far northern and western suburbs. I'm especially concerned about Brownsville...common landscape trees like Ficus and Delonix regia are going to take a hit if it gets much colder. Not to mention the coconuts. 

Where are these temps coming from? I don't see a low below 30F on Weather Channel for Corpus, below 34F for Brownsville and below 26F for Houston. 

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