Hurricane Irma

136 posts in this topic

It is very early, but those in South Florida need to be watching this:

 

AL11_2017083112_ECENS_large.png?91852102

Edited by RedRabbit
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The GFS has it staying in the Atlantic but the European has it going through the islands and to Florida.  But way too far off for an accurate forecast.

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tumor 1

now

tumor 2

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W.U. is forecasting the following trajectory over the coming days and being a cat 4 on Monday Sept 4th.

Irma

 

INIT  01/1500Z 18.5N  37.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 18.7N  39.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 18.5N  41.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.0N  44.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 17.3N  46.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 16.2N  51.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 16.7N  55.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 18.0N  59.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

Farther out the forecast looks like this at W.U.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_ensmodel.gif

 

If the storm comes you way, I only have four words....RUN TO THE HILLS!

 

http://clipart-library.com/img/2034581.png

 

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

 

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Trying to reason

With Cape Verde season

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My heart continues to go out to those hit by Harvey. And yes, Irma snuck in quickly.

At first she looked like she was heading to PR, but more recently the East coast of the US looks more likely.

I stocked up on gas, water, etc just in case. No generators at our Home Depot as all shipments diverted to Texas/Louisiana which is understandable. 

Hope Irma turns out to defy expectations and self destruct in the middle of the ocean far from any land!

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The good news for now at least now, both the GFS and European models show Irma staying in the Atlantic, let's pray that continues.

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46 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

The good news for now at least now, both the GFS and European models show Irma staying in the Atlantic but still getting close, let's pray that it stays away. The European was much closer to the coast yesterday but moving away a bit now, but again too far away to know for sure. Definitely need to watch this one.

 

46 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

The good news for now at least now, both the GFS and European models show Irma staying in the Atlantic, let's pray that continues.

But notice the other storm following Irma. The Bahamas need to watch as they may be directly affected.

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_32.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_11.png

Edited by Palmaceae
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Some models have Irma striking the Mid-Atlantic coast, one shows a NYC landfall at major hurricane strength. :bemused:

Still too early to determine if it'll make landfall on the East Coast, but everyone from Florida to Maine needs to keep an eye out.

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It's long winded, but does refer to hurricanes so bear with me.

Interesting coincidence today on the fictional drama, House of Cards, the Netflix show. I had watched the first year when I still lived in Virginia spoiled by inexpensive fast unlimited internet. When I moved to PR, there were no unlimited internet options at my rural farm, only data, which prevented watching any videos of any kind or even looking at photos on Palm Talk.

 Now I am enjoying unlimited internet again and indulged in catching up on House of Cards.

No spoilers, don't worry.

However just today for me on Season 3, they are dealing with Hurricane Faith and the projections look really close to those for Irma. 

Art imitates life again.

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If you want a non-sensational, detailed, to-the-point, relevantly informative analysis of the tropics/threats in the Atlantic, watch the tropical update videos this guy does. Haven't found any better analysis than his.

Here's today's update.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocnoepCHK1I

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Thanks!

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25 minutes ago, Opal92 said:

If you want a non-sensational, detailed, to-the-point, relevantly informative analysis of the tropics/threats in the Atlantic, watch the tropical update videos this guy does. Haven't found any better analysis than his.

Here's today's update.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocnoepCHK1I

I agree, Tropical Tidbits is the place to go for good info, Levi does a great job. You can see their whole site by going to,

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Also another good site is,

http://www.spaghettimodels.com

Edited by Palmaceae
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All we can do is pray.

Accept our prayers.

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On 9/1/2017, 12:51:44, Ed in Houston said:

 

If the storm comes you way, I only have four words....RUN TO THE HILLS!

 

http://clipart-library.com/img/2034581.png

 

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

 

Sorry dude, there are no hills in Florida just like there are no hills in Houston, best hitch a ride on the next rocket ship out of Canaveral. 

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58 minutes ago, Xerarch said:

Sorry dude, there are no hills in Florida just like there are no hills in Houston, best hitch a ride on the next rocket ship out of Canaveral. 

Good lord, this gets nastier than cat-[fecal material]!

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6 minutes ago, DoomsDave said:

Good lord, this gets nastier than cat-[fecal material]!

Let's just hope Irma doesn't get nasty

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Just now, Xerarch said:

Let's just hope Irma doesn't get nasty

PRAYING

and I'm an agnostic

 

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Both the GFS and European are in almost perfect agreement today. PR really needs to keep a watch for this storm. Then through the Bahamas, and gets very close the Florida, then heads into the Carolinas. Some of the other models have it moving more west over Florida. Just look at the pressure of the storm as it gets close to the US, that is a cat 5 storm.

Praying the trough over the CONUS stays strong and heads Irma out to sea.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_16.png

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_30.png

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_34.png

Edited by Palmaceae
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Looks like PR on Wednesday will not be a good day to head to the beach! 

Glad I am at 1000 ft.

Glad I have a concrete house, not wood.

I am also glad I have some of my favorite rare plants still in pots so on Tuesday perhaps I will stash lots of them inside.

We all have our priorities!

Just today I nearly finished terracing the huge piles of mud the city was kind enough to move from my recent landslides. If Irma were not likely to be an uninvited guest I would be planting immediately.

Maybe I should take some "before" pictures huh?

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Hoping!

For the best!

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Good Luck Cindy and batten down the hatches!!!

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Thanks Bill and Dave!

I just looked at the latest reports.

Looks like I can move plants before noon today while it is beautiful here or in the rain after that before Wed night. Time to get off PT and get to work.

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 Praying for you Cindy, looks like the worse will stay north of you.

I am not liking the new GFS run, nor the European, if things don't change looks like we in South Florida will be affected. September 11th may be another bad day for the US.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_30 (1).png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_8.png

Edited by Palmaceae
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On 9/3/2017, 12:59:31, Cindy Adair said:

Looks like PR on Wednesday will not be a good day to head to the beach! 

Glad I am at 1000 ft.

Glad I have a concrete house, not wood.

I am also glad I have some of my favorite rare plants still in pots so on Tuesday perhaps I will stash lots of them inside.

We all have our priorities!

Just today I nearly finished terracing the huge piles of mud the city was kind enough to move from my recent landslides. If Irma were not likely to be an uninvited guest I would be planting immediately.

Maybe I should take some "before" pictures huh?

Be safe Cindy.

 

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Cat 5 as of this morning, 180mph sustained winds, 220mph wind gusts at the moment. I expect this to increase a bit, all the perfect conditions lie ahead of Irma.

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5 hours ago, cm05 said:

Cat 5 as of this morning, 180mph sustained winds, 220mph wind gusts at the moment. I expect this to increase a bit, all the perfect conditions lie ahead of Irma.

OMG..... I am calling for a mandatory evacuation of the northern hemisphere.

Ed in Houston

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Models are still moving west, then east, but since Irma is 400 miles wide, the whole state of Florida will be affected in one way or the other. 

Latest European run not looking good for SW Florida and the Keys. The GFS has it off the east coast of Florida but the NHC still is trending toward the European.

Praying for the folks in the Caribbean.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.png

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Latest Recon from NOAA2 just reported 196kt winds at flight level. Also detecting winds at the surface in the 190mph range, pressure readings in the 914-917mb range. Yikes -! 

 

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Best of luck to everyone preparing for the storm. I booked a hotel out of town and will leave Tampa if it looks like it is coming this way. I recommend anyone in it's path to do the same... Even if there's no danger it isn't fun sitting at home in the dark with no AC. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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53 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

Models are still moving west, then east, but since Irma is 400 miles wide, the whole state of Florida will be affected in one way or the other. 

Latest European run not looking good for SW Florida and the Keys. The GFS has it off the east coast of Florida but the NHC still is trending toward the European.

Praying for the folks in the Caribbean.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.png

PRAYING FOR ALL OF YOU! :blink:

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I am praying as well. Get out of it's range while you still can! Also, sorry RedRabbit, I did not know you posted a thread on this already, I posted mine in off topic without checking here first. My bad! Although mine is mostly about it nearing Florida. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN! HURRICANE PROOF YOUR HOUSES!

Edited by PalmTreeDude
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No

No

NO!

PLEASE NO.

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This is a monster,stay safe people

Irma may have a brother that follows.

Thoughts with you all.

Edited by palmad Merc
Spell check
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I posted this in Cindy's thread also, that animation is just amazing:

diIpALw.gif

 

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IMG_8037.thumb.PNG.67b081c891d7cb8501fdd

If this track holds true this is going right over my house.

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@Cocoa Beach Jason Good luck over there man.  They had a path going right up the center of the state earlier.  That would have put it right over my place.  No matter which way it goes, it's not going to be good for anyone.  I can't imagine what 185MPH winds are like and don't want a live demonstration. :(

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I am really hoping that Irma pulls a Matthew and wobbles out further into the Atlantic (I'm sorry bahamas). If my house is spared two years in a row I will be sooo thankful. There's going to be a lot of dead palms unfortunately. 

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